(Finding) NEMoW

National Ecosystem Modeling Workshop

What: NEMoW

• A national workshop to standardize methodologies and approaches when using ecosystem, bio-physical and multispecies models

• Responsive to a wide range of calls for EAM/EAF/IEA/etc.

• Analogous to NSAW and Nat’l Economists Meetings

Why: NEMoW

• There have been only limited and ad hoc efforts to provide a standardized approach for Eco/MS models:– software packages– recommendations for use– parameterization protocols– validation protocols– data requirements– verification of model results

• Initially a proposal to NMFS Science Board; enthusiastically supported

Stock/Single Species

EcosystemMulti-species Aggregate Biomass

SS models, forget ecosystem issues

Messy Picture Here

Gadids

FlatfishPelagics

Gradient of Possibilities

Multiple SS assessments in “harmony”

SS assessments with explicit M2

or habitat or climate

considerations

Multi-species assessments

Aggregate Biomass Models

Whole System Models, forget

pop dy

Why multispecies? Why multiple models?

Biomass at F0 (change from reference B2002)

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

pollock cod g turbot yf sole r sole herring at flounder

Species

% c

han

ge

Single Species

Ecosim

MSFOR

What: NEMoW Products

• Workshop Report

• Evaluation of Models

• Recommendations for National EM Standards/Guidelines of use & review

• Recommendations for Standardized Approaches

Terms of Reference1. Identify the main classes of ecosystem, bio-physical and

multispecies models used, planned, or needed within NMFS, including:– the main objectives of these models – basic data requirements– when and how to use them relative to their objectives– pros and cons of each

2. Compare modeling approaches and methods across the NMFS science centers

3. Evaluate various available modeling software packages and determine the feasibility of establishing a national ecosystem modeling toolbox

4. Recommend further steps (e.g. National EM Standards, EM Model Review Criteria, further engagement of the external modeling community) to advance ecosystem modeling within NMFS.

5. Prepare a report on the above, to be delivered to the NMFS Science Board within six months of the workshop.

Workshop Format• 3 days: review, Center, model specific each day• Daily Format

– AM: presentations– PM: breakout groups

• For NMFS Eco/MS modelers, by NMFS Eco/MS modelers

• Limited # of Foreign experts and External observers

• Emphasis is on active participation and discussion, particularly in breakout groups

Breakout Group Chairs• Group 1 Howard Townsend Sarah Gaichas• Group 2 Kerim Aydin Josh Nowlis• Group 3 Jeff Polovina Bill Overholtz• Group 4 Phil Levin Chris Legault

• Each person assigned to a group based on geography, expertise, etc.

• Each group will meet 5 different times during workshop, addressing different TOR

• Captured discussions, revisited in plenary, will form core of workshop report

Thanks

• Local Hosts – Churchill Grimes and SWFSC Santa Cruz Lab

• Foreign Experts– Eva Plaganyi-Lloyd– Beth Fulton– Alida Bundy– Bjarte Bogstad– Villy Christensen

• External Observers• NMFS Science Board

Thanks

• Nat’l Steering Cmte– Howard Townsend NCBO– Kerim Aydin AFSC– Jason Link NEFSC– Ned Cyr S&T– Kenric Osgood S&T– Josh Sladek-Nowlis SEFSC– Jeff Polovina PIFSC– Phil Levin NWFSC– George Watters SWFSC

Questions?