Following lives from birth and through the adult years Paper for Gender, Class, Employment and family Conference Erzsebet Bukodi, Shirley

following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk

Paper for ‘Gender, Class, Employment and family’ Conference

Erzsebet Bukodi, Shirley Dex and Heather Joshi

Institute of Education, University of London

Gender differences in the effect of initial occupation on early career mobility in

Britain


Introduction

Part of IoE Gender Network project – using 1946, 1958, 1970 birth cohorts

Focus on women’s and men’s occupational mobility over their early careers

The research problems:- gender and cohort differences in the impact of

individuals’ initial occupational position on their future mobility chances

- Special focus on the implication of ‘bad entry’, i.e. taking up a position with low occupational status


Overview of the presentation Background: first job: ‘stepping-stone’ vs. ‘trap’ About data we use How are we going to examine occupational mobility? Amounts of occupational mobility over life-course – a

descriptive overview How do we define low quality jobs? Transition out of first job: the effects of low level entry

jobs Later career mobility: any effect of ‘bad entry’? Conclusions


Low quality entry job: ‘stepping-stone’ vs. ‘trap’? ‘Stepping-stone’:

economic theory of career mobility (Sicherman and Galor, 1990) for relatively highly-educated employees low quality entry jobs

(e.g. low paid jobs) may be temporary these jobs may provide them with skills to be used later at a

higher occupational level → fast upward mobility at the beginning of careers

‘Trap’: ‘core’ and ‘periphery’ of the LM (e.g. Doeringer and Piore, 1971) ‘periphery’: lower skill requirements, fewer chances for further

training, fewer career prospects, lower wages Limited flows between the two segments of LM

→ employees in the ‘periphery’ stuck there


Any gender differences? Selectivity issues: in certain low level entry positions

women may have lower qualifications women may have fewer opportunities for further training

Career prospects may be affected by employees’ work contracts (part-time, temporary work)

increased participation in part-time work for British women Gender differences in the effect of ‘psychological capital’

a ‘bad entry’ may discourage women more from applying for better jobs

Gender differences in preferences women may be less concerned with a rapid job promotion

→ Women make fewer ‘good’ job changes and more between ‘bad’ jobs


Gradually improving position of women in the British LM Men’s LM opportunities have been worsening since the

early eighties → diminishing gender differences in the effects of initial

occupational placement on career trajectories Polarisation of employment structure (e.g. Goos and

Manning, 2007): growing demands for highly educated employees growing demands for more ‘feminized’ low paid service jobs

with few career prospects → increasing gender differences in the effects of initial

occupational placement on career trajectories

Any cohort differences?


Data: NCDS and BCS70 The National Child Development Study

- census of babies born in a certain week of 1958 in Great Britain - 7 main interview waves up to 2004 (age 46)

The British Cohort Study- census of babies born in a certain week of 1970 in Great Britain- 6 sweeps up to 2004 (age 34)

In both surveys:- retrospective histories of employment - women’s and men’s occupational histories

This paper:- makes use of the sweeps conducted at age 23, 33-34 in the case of NCDS and at age 26, 30 and 34 in the case of BCS70- reconstructs cohort members’ job histories between age 16 and 34 (relatively early career)- only ‘significant’ jobs are considered (lasted at least 6 months)


Examining occupational mobility: creating an occupational scale We devise a ranking schema based on occupational wage

rates earnings data from the UK New Earnings Survey ranked the occupations using the 77 SOC codes according to the

mean hourly wage rates of full-timers in each occupation (Men + women)

the scores represent relative positions within occupational distribution

high correlation (above 0.800) with scales commonly in use internationally in sociological research (ISEI, SIOPS)


Occupational mobility over whole of the early career: a descriptive view

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Women,cohort1958

Women,cohort1970

Men,cohort1958

Men,cohort1970

Downward mobility

No mobility

Upward mobility


Low quality jobs at LM entry

Quintiles of first Women Men

occupation Cohort-58

Cohort-70

Cohort-58

Cohort-70

1st (lowest) 21 26 14 16

2nd 27 23 24 14

3rd 15 8 24 22

4th 20 22 19 23

5th (highest) 17 21 19 25

Total (%) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0


Entering the low quality jobs: the determinants

Logit estimates. ** significant at p < 0.01

Cohort-1958 Cohort-1970

Women Men Women MenEducation (ref.: O level)

less than O level .489 ** .364 ** .536 ** .391 **

A level or equivalent -.262 .299 -.432 ** -.088

sub-degree -.311 -1.680 ** -.807 ** -1.103 **

degree -1.502 ** -.699 ** -1.421 ** -.745 **

Father’s social class (ref.: Class I)

Class II -.330 .299 -.064 -.066

Class III -.463 .193 .200 -.232

Class IV .306 1.330 ** .122 .145

Class V -.110 .240 .038 -.294

Class VI -.259 .219 .158 -.151

Class VII .083 .741 ** .169 -.031


Upward mobility out of first job: the effect of low quality entry

Note: Piecewise constant exponential models. Models controls for age, education, part-time employment . **: significant at p < 0.01

Levels of first occupational score Women Men

(ref.: 3rd quintile ) Cohort 1958 Cohort 1970 Cohort 1958 Cohort 1970

1st (lowest) 1.460 ** 1.132 ** 1.591 ** 1.372 **

2nd .878 ** .759 ** 1.000 ** .805 **

4th -.606 ** -.480 ** -.199 -.423 **

5th (highest) -4.682 ** -3.552 ** -3.485 ** -3.416 **

- Positive effect of lowest occupations: merely a floor effect?


Later career mobility: any effect of ‘bad entry’? (1) All job moves up to age 34 are considered Piecewise exponential models (with control for unobserved

heterogeneity) Other covariates:

job tenure (in months) cumulative work experience (in months) % of work career in part-time employment until current job occupational mobility history up to current job (no mobility, only

upward, only downward, both types) qualifications at entry the current job current job:

occupational score part-time/full-time job


Later career mobility: any effect of ‘bad entry’? (2)

Lowest occupational quintile at

LM entry

Cohort-1958 Cohort-1970

(ref.: 3rd quintile ) Upwardmobility

Downwardmobility

Upwardmobility

Downwardmobility

WOMEN -.070 .184 ** -.287 ** .330 **

MEN .016 .182 -.093 .095


Any difference by qualifications? (1) The chances of upward moves and risks of downward

moves for those with ‘bad start’ may vary by qualifications

We take a hypothetical person and calculate the probability of her/his being upwardly and downwardly mobile if her/his entry job at the lowest occupational quintile she/he has 5 years of work experience no part-time job over her/his career experienced at least one upward move up to the point entering the

current job holds a current job with the mean occupational score


Any difference by qualifications? (2)

Figure 1: Predicted hazard of career mobility by qualifications for our hypothetical person

Women Men

0

0.001

0.002

0.003

0.004

0.005

0.006

0.007

0.008

0.009

0.01

1958 1970 1958 1970

Upward Downward

O level

Sub- degree/degree

0

0.001

0.002

0.003

0.004

0.005

0.006

0.007

0.008

0.009

0.01

1958 1970 1958 1970

Upward Downward

O level

Sub- degree/degree


Conclusions British women’s career opportunities improved a lot in the 1980s and

1990s Women’s occupational trajectories, at least up to age 34, have

become more similar to those of men However, considerable differences according to occupational level at

LM entry: Women face the greatest and growing hindrance to career

advancement from the low quality entry jobs LM entry at the bottom of occupational hierarchy:

for women: more like a ‘trap’ for men: more like a ‘stepping-stone’

Policy implication: Gender inequalities at the lower hierarchical level appear to be strengthening


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Following lives from birth and through the adult years Paper for Gender, Class, Employment and family Conference Erzsebet Bukodi, Shirley