Food Security Challenges in a rapidly changing world

Food Security Challenges Food Security Challenges in a rapidly changing worldin a rapidly changing world

Colin Chartres and Aditya Sood Colin Chartres and Aditya Sood

International Water Management InstituteInternational Water Management Institute

(Acknowledgements to Jan Lundqvist, SIWI)(Acknowledgements to Jan Lundqvist, SIWI)

Water for a food‐secure world

Contents

• Drivers of food and water scarcity• Scenarios of food and water demands• A changing planet• A global paradox and a challenge• Can we adapt and deliver food security


Demography, GDP and Water Withdrawals1900 ‐ 2000

• Population increase about 3.6 times • Water withdrawals increased 6.8 times• GDP increased 19 times , about 3% per year (constant prices, IMF)

Water for a food‐secure world Data: CIESEN

Population hot spots

Pop increase 2000‐2010

Key increases/decreases in 1000s


Land and water availability are reducing

Land area (ha) per person Water availabilty 1000m3 per person

Water scarcityPhysical scarcity: Water resources development approaching or exceeding sustainable limits

Economic Scarcity:Water resources can meet needs; but human, institutional and financial capital lacking to actually harness and use these resources

Source: Water for Food, Water for Life, IWMI, 2007


Drivers of Food and Water scarcity

The major drivers of water scarcity and food security are:

– Population growth (7.0 b today to 9.0 b in 2050)– Dietary change– Urbanisation– Globalisation– Biofuel production– Climate Change


0

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10 100 1000 10000 100000

GDP per capita (2000 constant dollars per year)

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Meat China

India

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2 0

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1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

G D P p e r c a p ita (2 0 0 0 c o n s ta n t d o lla r s p e r ye a r )

milk

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Milk

China

India USA

USA

Consumption and income 1961‐2000

These trends are continuing


Specific challenges to wheat in South Asia• Wheat in developing countries most strongly affected by climate change

• 2025: USD 15‐20 billion losses pa (12–16%)

• 2050: USD 32‐48 billion losses pa (20–30%)

• 10% Yield potential loss for every C0 increase

Courtesy Dr M Banziger, CIMMYT


Issue identification: Water supply vs. demand gaps


Drivers paint a pessimistic picture

• However, population and GDP dynamics are changing


Global Water Withdrawals: historical and projected (after Peter Gleick)


Slowing down of demographic dynamics


A new economic world map


Scenarios considered• Used the Watersim Model• Three scenarios:

– Business as usual (medium pop growth, medium GDP growth)

– Optimistic (low pop growth, high GDP growth)– Pessimistic (high pop growth, low GDP growth)


Consumptive water demand (regions)2010 – 2050

BAU, Optimistic and Pessimistic


Consumptive water demand (sector)2010 – 2050

BAU, Optimistic and Pessimistic


Approx. 2000 water withdrawals


Based on WaterSim analysis for the Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture

Comprehensive Assessment Scenario: Policies for productivity gains, upgrading rainfed areas, revitalized irrigation & trade


The Global Paradox and Challenge

Feeding c.2 billion more people with

less

water for agriculture than we have now

in

an era of climate change


BAU or a Healthy, Water Saving 2050?kcal meat (daily, gram)

1. Current food supply:(average global level; FAO) 2,800 224 (OECD)

‐ 1 billion undernourished, 1.4 billion+ overweight & obese; ~ 50% of production lost & wasted; high water, environmental & financial cost

2. Projected food supply (2050) 3,130 283 (OECD)(average global)‐ increase production by 70%; undernourishment/overeating/waste?‐ augmented water, environmental & financial cost

3. International norm (supply at national level) 2,700

3. A health recommended diet scenario intake (at individual level) 2,000 90

4. Reducing losses and waste by 50% ‐ equivalent to a rise in output of 15 – 25%‐ 50% reduction of losses & waste: potential savings of 1,350 km3


CC may reduce potential yields in SSA and SA by 30% by 2030 (Lobell et al, Science, 2008)

Temperature increase may reduce yields of corn, soya beans and cotton by 30 – 46% in the US in a century(Schlenker & Roberts, PNAS, 2009)

Food production to increase by 70% by 2050 World Food Summit, Rome, November 2009. Similar: World Bank (2008), N. Borlaug (2002), etc.

Additional water required: + 5,500 km3 (FAO) from where?

Water Prudence/Saving BAU Supply chain logistics; - storage, transport & market access

Demand side issues, food intake;- Cf. definition on food security

Food waste, EU27: 179 kg/cap, year (2010)

Solutions BAU or Water prudence


What does all this mean in terms of transboundary water issues?

• SE and E Asia has both opportunities and challenges• It has some areas where water resources are scarce and other where there are opportunities for development (e.g. NE Thailand vs Laos and Cambodia)

• The Greater Mekong area has potential to further develop as a food bowl for Asia –trade is vital

• However, the nexus issues of energy demand vs irrigation demand need to be worked through in terms of win‐win solutions

• Improved transboundary understanding is vital to the food‐enegry‐environment nexus. Better data and information will be critical to decision making


Thank You

Documents

Food Security Challenges in a rapidly changing world