Future Fuel Opportunities for Light-Duty Vehicles: …cse.ksu.edu/files/cse/Jim Anderson.pdfResearch & Advanced Engineering Future Fuel Opportunities for Light-Duty Vehicles: An Automaker’s

Research & Advanced Engineering

Future Fuel Opportunities for Light-Duty Vehicles:

An Automaker’s Perspective

James E. Anderson Technical Expert, Fuel Science

Systems Analytics & Environmental Sciences Dept. Research & Advanced Engineering

Ford Motor Company

1


Overview • Evolution in light-duty vehicle requirements

• Tremendous progress in tailpipe emissions. • New challenges include fuel economy and GHGs. • Fuels and vehicles are a system. Fuel quality has

evolved with vehicles and must continue to improve in tandem with vehicle advancements.

2


Cars and trucks provide…

• Personal mobility • Utility (passengers, cargo, towing) • Performance (accel., speed, handling, stopping) • Toughness (extreme conditions, durability) • Safety (airbags, anti-lock brakes, stability control,

traction control, structural, lane departure, crash avoidance, …)

• Comfort and style (design, paint, NVH, …) • Technology (connectivity, V2V, …) There has been tremendous progress in vehicle function and features. These have become “standard” equipment. Meanwhile, new sustainability requirements have emerged.

3


Sustainability objectives

4

• Improve manufacturing facility efficiency and emissions

• Biomaterials, recycled content

• Human rights code and strategy

• Emissions control (tailpipe, evap.)

• Fuel economy improvement • GHG emissions reduction

• Manufacturing footprint (GHG, energy, water, waste)

• Sustainable materials

• Social

• Local air quality

• Oil import reduction • Climate change

Issue Solution

With the exception of fuel economy, sustainability has generally not been a consumer demand.

Pro

du

ctio

n

Use


2012/2013 version released June 2013 2013/2014 version expected release planned for June 2014

Summary Report and Full Version available on Ford website

More about Sustainability at Ford http://corporate.ford.com/go/sustainability

5

Blueprint For Sustainability


Year1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Ligh

t-dut

y ga

solin

e ve

hicl

e em

issi

ons

(g/m

ile)

0.01

0.1

1

10

HCNOx

CO

Wallington, T.J., et al., Meteorol. Z., 17, 109, 2008 Wallington, T.J., et al., Energy Policy, 54, 47, 2013

Large reductions in emissions, both per vehicle per mile and for on-road fleet, have been achieved.

Gasoline plot

Year1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 G

asol

ine

Em

issi

ons

(milli

ons

tons

)

0.1

1

10

100

CO NOx VOCsPM 10

Emissions from on-road gasoline fleet Emissions per vehicle per mile

Gasoline vehicle emission trends (U.S.)

6


Year1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

D

iese

l Em

issi

ons

(milli

ons

tons

)

0.1

1

10

NOx

CO VOCs PM 10

Khalek, I., et al., J. AWMA, 61, 427, 2011 Wallington, T.J., et al., Energy Policy, 54, 47, 2013

Emissions from on-road diesel fleet

Model Year1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Emis

sion

sta

ndar

ds a

pplic

able

fo

r med

ium

-dut

y di

esel

s (g

/[bhp

hr])

0.01

0.1

1

10

NOxPM

Emissions standards per vehicle per mile

Modern diesel catalyst systems include a diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC), urea selective catalytic reduction (urea-SCR) or lean NOx catalyst, and diesel particulate filter (DPF). Large emission reductions from new technology have been realized.

Diesel vehicle emission trends (U.S.)

7


Global road transport vehicle miles traveled will double from 2000 to 2050, but VOC and NOx emissions are expected to decrease 10-fold and 6-fold, respectively.

OECD non-OECD

World Business Council for Sustainable Development, Mobility 2030: meeting the challenges to sustainability. -- ISBN: 2-940240-57-4, Geneva, Switzerland.

VOC

NOx

Future emissions

8


Fuel quality enablers for emissions control

Year1970 1980 1990 2000

Lead

add

ed to

U.S

. gas

olin

e (g

per

gal

lon)

0

1

2

3

4

5

Use of tetra-ethyl lead in gasoline phased out as part of Clean Air Act.

Lead in U.S. Gasoline

Year1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Sulfu

r lim

it in

Die

sel (

ppm

)

10

100

1000

10000U.S.EUChina National

Sulfur in Diesel

100-1000-fold decrease in sulfur content of road transport diesel fuel.

Data source: http://transportpolicy.net/; http://www.epa.gov/blackcarbon/2012report/Appendix4.pdf

9

Fuel quality improvements were required for tailpipe emissions reductions.

http://transportpolicy.net/

http://transportpolicy.net/


Climate change and GHGs: the new challenge

Light-duty cars and trucks contribute about 20% of US, 19% of EU-27, and 11% of global fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Need to address CO2 in all sectors.

Year1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

[CO

2] (p

pm)

320

340

360

380

400

2011 2012 2013 2014

390

395

400

Mauna Loa, Hawaii

10


Time frames • Near-term

– Increasingly more efficient use of gasoline/diesel – Natural gas for high fuel consumers

• Mid-term – Electrification – CO2 targets are very challenging – Low-CO2 fuels need to emerge

• Long-term – Unclear! – New fuel and vehicle technology developments will

determine optimal approach (e.g., cost and availability of low-CO2 fuels and electricity, storage)

Uncertainty about future options requires a “portfolio approach”.

11


Fuel economy regulations

Davis, S., et al., Transportation Energy Data Book, Edition 32, 2013. http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/info-tools/GlobalPVstd_Aug2013_lg.jpg

25 mpg in 2000

~55 mpg in 2025

30 mpg in 2011

US CAFE est. combined cars and trucks

New fuel economy and GHG requirements are unprecedented challenges.

12

20 mpg in 1978


Vehicle actions to reduce fuel consumption

Engine • Higher compression ratio (CR) • Direct injection • Turbocharging • Downsizing • Start-stop • Cylinder deactivation Vehicle • Mass reduction (aluminum in

new F150) • Aero and rolling resistance • Multi-speed transmissions • Regenerative braking • Hybridization

A wide range of vehicle efficiency actions are being taken, but with increasing cost.

13


Meaningful solutions must be large-scale

To significantly impact GHG emissions, new transportation solutions need to be implemented at large-scale and thus must be affordable and cost-effective.

14


New Electrified Vehicles

15

POWER CHOICE

Ford’s strategy is to provide affordable technologies to the millions through Green, Safe, Smart designs and Quality products

THE

OF

MKZ


Fuels must also contribute

As with tailpipe emissions, fuels must evolve and improve together with vehicles to reduce transport GHG emissions.

• Improved properties • Lower-CO2

V

eh

icle

Car

bo

n E

mis

sio

n

16 http://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/14006_cradle_to_grave_analysis.pdf

Lower CO2 Fuels


Lower-CO2 fuels are needed

17 http://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/14006_cradle_to_grave_analysis.pdf

Fuel carbon intensity is becoming increasingly important.


Future gasoline and diesel

• Unconventional oil sources (deep water, oil sands, heavy oil, CTL, oil shale)

– More energy intensive to recover Economically feasible for high oil prices Greater GHG emissions than conventional oil

– Increasing contribution to the fuel supply

Future gasoline and diesel will likely have greater GHG emissions than current fuels.

18


"All the world is waiting for a substitute for petrol. The day is not far distant when, for every one of those barrels of petrol, a barrel of ethanol must be substituted.” Henry Ford, 1916

Alternative fuels

19

"The fuel of the future is going to come from fruit like that sumac out by the road, or from apples, weeds, sawdust – almost anything. There is fuel in every bit of vegetable matter that can be fermented. There's enough alcohol in one year's yield of an acre of potatoes to drive the machinery necessary to cultivate the fields for a hundred years.” Henry Ford, 1925


Challenges for alternative fuels

• Unseating the incumbent is very difficult. – Production, Infrastructure, Availability, Vehicles, Standards,

Regulations, Awareness, Acceptance – Scale disadvantage

• Compelling reasons are needed for adoption of an alternative fuel.

– 1) Cost … 2) CO2 and Renewability

• Oil price is critical (fuel cost difference, payback time). • Multiple alternatives increase the challenges.

20


Fuel properties (e.g., octane ratings) can also contribute by enabling more efficient engines.

Fuels must also contribute

Improved properties

Improved Vehicle Efficiency

Lower CO2 Fuels

21

Lower-CO2

High-octane renewable

fuels


Autoignition of the air-fuel mixture ahead of the flame front Creates audible noise and can lead to engine damage Caused by high compression temperatures, arising from:

o higher engine torques o higher compression ratios (CR)

Octane ratings describe the knock resistance of fuels.

Normal Heavy Knock

Slight Knock

What is knock?

22


Importance of knock

Spark Retard

Nor

mal

ized

Effi

cien

cy

SAE 2006-01-0229

Compression Ratio

Effi

cien

cy Im

prov

emen

t (%

) Heywood textbook

Higher CRs can greatly improve efficiency.

But at high loads, spark retard is needed to avoid knock, which degrades efficiency.

Fuels with higher octane ratings prevent knock, enabling higher CR with higher efficiency. Octane rating is the critical fuel property for engine efficiency.

23


89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

1983 1986 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

RO

N E0E10

Octane ratings and ethanol

Oxy

gena

te(B

gal/y

r)

0

5

10

15

Gas

olin

e(B

gal/y

r)

04080

120160

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Uni

form

Etha

nol

Ble

nd (%

v)

02468

10

0

0

15

10

Ethanol

MTBE

E10

E0

Gas

olin

e

(Bga

l/yr

) O

xyge

nat

e (B

gal/

yr)

Ble

nd

(%

v)

Ethanol has high octane value in gasoline. Fuel industry captured this in E10 by lowering the octane rating of the hydrocarbon portion of gasoline.

24 Anderson, et al., SAE 2012-01-1274 Anderson, et al., 97:585-594, 2012

Ethanol has high octane value in gasoline.


Quantify fuel economy & CO2 benefits of higher CR, enabled by increased fuel octane rating and ethanol content. • 3.5L turbocharged DI engine, 10:1, 12:1, 13:1 CR • E10, E20, and E30 – both splash and match blends • Extensive mapping data, to enable fuel economy analysis

Engine dynamometer study

“Match” blends

In the context of future fuels, can the high octane value of ethanol be used to provide a significant CO2 benefit?

Premium E10

25 Jung, et al., SAE 2013-01-1321 Leone, et al., SAE 2014-01-1228

Current


Higher CRs require higher-octane fuel

A: Higher CR only: 2.6% EPA CO2 benefit 4.9% US06 Highway CO2 penalty

B: High-octane fuel only: 1.1% EPA CO2 benefit 2.5% US06 Highway CO2 benefit

A+B: High-octane fuel and higher CR: 4.8% EPA CO2 benefit 4.9% US06 Highway CO2 benefit

Compression ratio choice is a compromise between expected duty cycle and octane rating of the expected fuel. Most customers will not pay extra for premium fuel.

Jung, et al., SAE 2013-01-1321 Leone, et al., SAE 2014-01-1228

B

A

10:1 12:1 Compression Ratio (CR)

Fuel

Oct

ane

Rat

ing

91

-RO

N E

10

96

-RO

N E

20

26

Preferred approach: Raise minimum octane rating of regular fuel.


Higher-octane fuel with engine CR optimization can reduce societal cost, CO2 emissions, and petroleum consumption.

vs. 92RON Exx

“Win-Win-Win” scenarios (reductions in net cost, CO2 emissions, and petroleum consumption)

WTW Δ Cost (¢/mi)

WTW Δ CO2 Emissions (g/mi)

WTW Δ Petroleum Consumption (%)

Higher-octane fuel: Well-to-wheels analysis

27 Publications pending by USCAR

E10

E20 E30


Long-term vision needed

28

• The current Renewable Fuels Standard uses a “push” approach.

– Challenges to implementation – Few supporting mechanisms

• Vision: An optimized vehicle-fuel system in which low-CO2 fuels (such as ethanol) enable more efficient engines, augmenting inherent well-to-tank benefits.

• A compelling, stable long-term vision could generate “pull” for low-CO2 fuels, promote consensus, and guide critical longer-term strategy and planning.


Vehicle Fuel

Oil production Refining Distribution Blending Dispensing Distribution Biofuel production Feedstock growth

Biofuel Industry

Oil Industry

Filling Stations

Auto Industry

Agriculture Industry

+

Government &

Standards

Organizations

Consumers

To be successful, future fuels should provide value for all stakeholders.

Many stakeholders

29

Small engine industry


Conclusions • Systems thinking approaches are needed to address air

quality, fuel economy, and sustainability goals.

• Clean fuels need to evolve and improve together with clean vehicles.

• An integrated approach is necessary. Discussion between stakeholders in industry, academia, and government is important.

30


Acknowledgements

Dominic DiCicco John Ginder

Chul Kim Tom Leone

Sherry Mueller Mike Shelby

Tim Wallington Sandy Winkler

31

Documents

Future Fuel Opportunities for Light-Duty Vehicles: …cse.ksu.edu/files/cse/Jim Anderson.pdfResearch & Advanced Engineering Future Fuel Opportunities for Light-Duty Vehicles: An Automaker’s