GIEWS FPMA Bulletin #4, 10 May 2017 · preparing for ramadan. the exception was Viet nam, where prices declined on account of harvest pressure and after Government-to-Government deals

Food Price Monitoring and Analysis10 May 2017

monthly report on food price trends

bulletin#4

GIEWS - Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture

Key messages ↗ International wheat prices generally declined in April, on account of ample supplies and generally favourable outlook for the 2017 harvest. Export prices of maize remained under downward pressure, mainly reflecting expectations of bumper crops in Southern Hemisphere countries. By contrast, international rice prices increased, supported by a rebound in trade activity, especially due to accelerated sales to countries of the Near East.

↗ In East Africa, cereal prices rose further in April and reached record or near‑record levels in most countries. Prices were underpinned by tight supplies, following drought‑reduced 2016 second season outputs, and uncertain prospects for the upcoming 2017 harvests due to drier‑than‑average conditions and armyworm infestation affecting key‑growing areas.

↗ In Southern Hemisphere countries, favourable maize production prospects kept domestic prices under downward pressure in April and below their year‑earlier levels. In Brazil, where a bumper first season crop is being harvested, maize prices declined sharply in April and averaged some 40 percent lower than a year earlier. In South Africa, expectations of a near‑record output pushed down white maize prices for the fourth consecutive month to less than half their year‑earlier levels.

Price warning level: High Moderate [Based on GIEWS analysis]

ContentsIntErnatIonal cErEal PrIcES ............................. 2

DoMEStIc PrIcE WarnInGS .................................. 3

WESt afrIca ........................................................... 7

SoutHErn afrIca .................................................. 8

EaSt afrIca .......................................................... 10

EaSt aSIa .............................................................. 12

cIS - aSIa anD EuroPE ......................................... 14

cEntral aMErIca anD tHE carIBBEan ............. 16

SoutH aMErIca ................................................... 17

Bangladesh | Rice

Burundi | Maize

Ecuador | Maize

Ethiopia | Maize

Kenya | Maize

Nigeria | Staple foods

Peru | Rice

Rwanda | Maize

Somalia | Coarse grains

South Sudan | Staple foods

Uganda | Maize

United Republic of Tanzania | Maize

Domestic price warnings

Warnings are only included if latest available price data is not older than two months.

The designations employed and the presentation of material in the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal or constitutional status of any country, territory or sea area, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers.

http://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/price-warnings/detail/en/c/272144/

2 10 May 2017GIEWS FPMA Bulletin

for more information visit the fPMa website here

INTeRNaTIONaL CeReaL PRICes

Wheat export prices generally declined in april from the previous month. the benchmark uS wheat (no.2 Hard red Winter, f.o.b.) price decreased for the second consecutive month and averaged uSD 191 per tonne, about 4 percent lower than in March and 5 percent down from a year earlier. the decline stemmed from ample supplies and an overall favourable outlook for the 2017 harvest, despite some concerns about less-than-ideal weather conditions in the second half of the month in some northern Hemisphere producers. In the European union, low export sales additionally weighed on prices. In argentina, export quotations declined for the first time since January reflecting favourable planting prospects for the 2017 crop, about to be sown.

the benchmark uS maize (no.2, Yellow, f.o.b.) averaged uSD 157 per tonne, 1 percent lower than in March and 4 percent down from the corresponding month in 2016. Prices were pressured downwards by ample supplies and prospects of strong export competition from Southern Hemisphere countries, where bumper crops are expected. However, planting delays in some northern Hemisphere countries, due to heavy rains in the first half of april, limited the decline in prices. Elsewhere, prices remained relatively unchanged. In argentina,

export prices were supported by harvest delays due to heavy rains, with forecasts still pointing to a record output. In the Black Sea region, stronger currencies kept export quotations virtually unchanged despite a slowdown in exports.

the fao all Rice Price Index (2002-2004=100) rose by 1.8 percent in april and reached a nine-month high of 198 points. Export prices increased in most asian origins amid stronger demand, particularly from countries of the near East preparing for ramadan. the exception was Viet nam, where prices declined on account of harvest pressure and after Government-to-Government deals did not materialize. In thailand, the benchmark 100%B white rice rose by nearly 3 percent to uSD 394 per tonne, buoyed by large sales to the Islamic republic of Iran. In India, a stronger currency and tight supplies ahead of the rabi harvest provided further support to quotations, while in Pakistan, dwindling availabilities and steady sales to african countries pushed up prices. In the united States of america, prospects of steep cuts to 2017 plantings, coupled with lower-than-expected inventory levels, underpinned Indica prices. Prices increased also in uruguay, following sales to Iraq and latin american countries, whereas new crop arrivals and slow demand pushed down quotations in argentina and Brazil.

Wheat and maize prices remained under downward pressure, those of rice firmed

Latest Price(Apr-17) 1M 3M 1Y

International wheat prices

Percent Change

150

170

190

210

230

250

Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17

US (Gulf), Wheat (US No. 2, Hard Red Winter)

EU (France), Wheat (grade 1)

Black Sea, Wheat (milling)

Argentina, Wheat (Argentina, Trigo Pan, Up River, f.o.b.)

USD per tonne

Source(s): International Grains Council

190.75

182.00

188.25

189.25

-3.8

-4.5

-2

-1.3

-4.9

-4.1

2

6.8

-5

6.1

1.2

-4.8


International maize prices

Percent Change

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210


US (Gulf), Maize (US No. 2, Yellow)

Black Sea, Maize (feed)

Argentina, Maize (Argentina, Up River, f.o.b.)

Ukraine, Maize (o�er, f.o.b.)

USD per tonne

156.76

170.75

164.50

171.00

-1.3

0.3

0.6

0

-1.7

0.9

-10.3

0.9

-4.4

-0.7

-3.5

-1.4

Source (s): USDA: International Grains Councel: APK-Inform Agency


International rice prices

Percent Change

250

300

350

400

450

500

550


Thailand (Bangkok), Rice (Thai 100% B)

Viet Nam, Rice (25% broken)

India, Rice (25% broken)

US, Rice (US Long Grain 2.4%)

USD per tonne

394.25

328.50

350.00

404.50

2.5

-1.4

1.7

2.4

0.6

2.2

3.6

2.3

-1.6

-4.8

7

-8.1

Source (s): Thai Rice Exporters Association: FAO rice price update

http://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/regional-roundups/en/

Price warning level: High Moderate

3


10 May 2017 GIEWS FPMA Bulletin

DOmesTIC PRICe WaRNINgs

Rice prices increased further in April, reaching record levels Prices of rice increased for the third consecutive month in april and at a faster pace than in the previous months. Seasonal trends were exacerbated by flash floods in late March and early april that negatively impacted prospects for the 2017 main boro paddy crop, accounting for some 55 percent of the annual output and about to be harvested. Steep rice price increases were already recorded in the second half of 2016 due to lower imports after the imposition of higher duties on rice in June last year and reduced 2016 main boro and minor aus outputs due to a decline in the area planted with only a temporary halt in the rising trend during the aman harvest from november to January. as a result of the almost sustained increases since June last year, rice prices reached record highs in april with retail prices of medium-quality rice more than 20 percent higher than in april last year, while those of coarse rice nearly 50 percent higher. In the backdrop of the 2017 boro crop damages and high market prices, the Government has put forward plans to reduce the rice import duty from the existing 25 percent to 10 percent.

Bangladesh | Rice

countries where prices of one or more basic food commodity are at abnormal high levels which could negatively impact access to food

ecuador | Maize

Burundi | Maize

Prices of yellow maize firm at record or near-record highs Prices of yellow maize remained firm in april and were at record or near-record highs, well above their year-earlier levels. Prices were underpinned by tight supplies from the sharply-reduced 2016 output and concerns about this year’s output due to lower plantings and the development of pest and fungal infestations in key-growing areas due to wet weather conditions earlier in the season. after the Government declared a state of emergency in mid-March, assistance and resources were provided to farmers to prevent the substantial crop losses. Harvesting of the 2017 crop has just begun and official forecasts are not yet available, but if output is severely affected this would be the second consecutive year of reduced maize production.

Maize prices still high despite recent declines Maize prices declined for the second consecutive month in april with the recent 2017a season harvest. However, in view of a reduced output due to below-average rainfall, especially in eastern and northern cropping areas, and slow pace of imports, prices remained well above their levels in april last year. restrictions on food trade in the united republic of tanzania have lowered the availability of several commodities in most markets across the country with consequent upward pressure on local prices. a weak currency provided further support. Improved rains in the past few months benefited planting and early development of the 2017B main season crop to be harvested from late May. assuming normal growing conditions prevail and prospects for these crops remain favourable, the new harvest would improve food availability and reduce prices further.

to 04/17 Same periodaverage

3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

1.3

2.0

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Bangladesh, Dhaka, Retail, Rice (Medium)

-0.2

-0.6


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

4.9

-1.3

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Burundi, Bujumbura, Wholesale, Maize

-5.8

-0.1


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

1.5

1.9

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Ecuador, Quito, Wholesale, Maize (yellow)

0.4

-0.1

http://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/price-warnings/en/

Price warning level: High Moderate

4 10 May 2017


GIEWS FPMA Bulletin

DOmesTIC PRICe WaRNINgs contd.

ethiopia | MaizeMaize prices strengthened further in April Prices of maize continued to rise in april in most monitored markets and reached levels up to 48 percent higher than those a year earlier. In spite of adequate supplies from the 2016 average output, seasonal increases were compounded by concerns over the performance of the 2017 secondary season belg harvest due to early season dryness and fall armyworm infestation in southwestern areas. the sharpest month-on-month price increase was recorded in the belg-dependent area of Diredawa. Prices of staple wheat, partly imported, also increased in april, but to a lesser extent, and remained generally down from a year earlier reflecting adequate volumes of imports and the good 2016 output. Teff is also a very important staple food throughout the country, mostly consumed in urban areas, and its price has increased steadily since January, and in april was, in general, higher than the corresponding month last year.

Kenya | MaizeMaize and bean prices continued to increase in AprilMaize prices continued to increase sharply in april and were at record or near-record highs, well above their levels a year earlier, in all monitored markets. this reflects reduced supplies from the recently-completed 2016 short-rains harvest due to the failure of the rainy season. Prices of maize were also underpinned by concerns over the upcoming 2017 long-rains harvest due to early season dryness and fall armyworm infestations. reduced and highly-priced imports from neighbouring uganda and the united republic of tanzania provided further support despite the recent removal of import taxes (fPMa food Policies). average prices of a 90 kg bag of staple beans increased in april by more than 10 percent on a monthly basis and were some 30 percent above their levels a year earlier. Severe dry weather conditions is also behind the reduced market availabilities of milk and its high average price, which in april was reportedly 6 percent higher than in March and 13 percent above its level in april last year.


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

1.6

7.3

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Wholesale, Maize

0.7

-0.3


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

2.3

10.4

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Kenya, Nairobi, Wholesale, Maize

1.3

-0.2

Nigeria | staple foodsCoarse grain prices remain high despite some declines in March Prices of maize, millet and sorghum were stable or declined in most markets in March, albeit remaining at high levels. the average price of imported high quality rice (sold loose) increased only slightly in March and was 55 percent higher year-on-year. By contrast, prices of domestically-produced white and yellow gari (staple foods made from cassava) continued to generally follow a strong upward trend. Stability of the local currency, following the Government’s measures to boost uS dollar supplies, mostly contributed to limiting cereal price increases in various markets. the ongoing off-season harvest, with generally favourable results reported in most areas, also partly contributed to the relative stability of prices. as a result of more stable prices and exchange rate, year-on-year inflation fell by 0.52 percent, the second consecutive month of decline. However, high transport costs, lower import quantities and increased exports to neighbouring countries, due to an overall weaker currency, continued to support food prices which remained well above their values in March last year. food prices were relatively higher in the northern part of the country, where the continued conflict has caused widespread disruption in agricultural and marketing activities, putting further upward pressure on prices and leading to a deterioration of food security conditions. In an effort to boost domestic production and reduce food prices, the Government banned maize exports in September 2016 and implemented a set of measures in february which include the financing of agricultural inputs and improving the efficiency of food distribution across the country.


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

4.1

3.4

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Nigeria, Kano, Wholesale, Maize (white)

2.5

-0.3

http://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/price-warnings/en/http://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/food-policies/detail/en/c/878159/

5



DOmesTIC PRICe WaRNINgs contd.

Peru | Rice

Rwanda | Maize

Wholesale rice prices at record levels in AprilWholesale rice prices rose significantly for the second consecutive month in april and reached record highs, more than 15 percent above their year-earlier levels. Price increases were triggered by an anticipated decline in this year’s production from the 2016 record output and strong local demand. the 2017 rice cropping season was affected by dry conditions in late 2016 during early planting and by heavy rains and floods associated with the coastal El niño phenomenon in february and March. Imports in 2017 are expected to increase due to the anticipated decline in output. Despite the onset of harvesting in some key-growing areas, marketing activities are hampered by flood damage to key infrastructures, including roads and machinery, further supporting prices. Prices are, however, expected to ease with the peak of the harvest in May/June.


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

1.0

1.2

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Peru, Lima, Wholesale, Rice (milled, corriente)

-2.2

0.1


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

2.6

2.7

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Rwanda, Kigali, Wholesale, Maize

-3.2

0.2

Maize prices on the increase and at record highsPrices of maize continued to increase in april and reached record highs despite the recent 2017a season harvest. the upward price pressure is mainly due to localized production shortfalls of the 2017a season coupled with reduced and highly-priced imports from neighbouring uganda and the united republic of tanzania, where the supply situation is tight. Sharper price increases were recorded in eastern areas where a below average output was gathered. Planting of the 2017B season crops, to be harvested from May, was completed in March. late and below-average rainfall has had a negative impact on crop establishment and vegetation conditions; however, official weather forecasts point to an improvement of the rains which would ease the moisture deficits accumulated and improve vegetation conditions.

somalia | Coarse grains Prices of maize and sorghum overall stable in April In several markets of central and Southern Somalia, prices of locally-produced maize and sorghum remained generally stable or weakened in april, mainly as a result of emergency food aid distributions. However, price spikes for maize and sorghum were recorded in Baidoa, the main market of the sorghum belt in southern Bay region, severely affected by dry weather conditions. overall, coarse grain prices remained well above their year-earlier levels after the steep increases late last year and earlier this year due to the drought-reduced 2016 deyr cereal output. Production in 2016 was the lowest since the beginning of the conflict in 1988 and 45 percent below the average of the previous five years. Prices of cattle and goat milk, an important component of the local diet in pastoralist areas, increased significantly in some markets in Bay and Middle Juba due to limited availabilities, while they declined in Gedo and lower Juba, but were generally above their year-earlier levels. Prices of livestock, including goat, camel and cattle, showed mixed trends across the country, but remained well below their values in april last year, particularly in Bay, Gedo and Middle Juba, due to a deterioration of livestock body conditions.


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

6.2

1.7

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Somalia, Baidoa, Retail, Sorghum (red)

-1.0

-0.7


6 10 May 2017


GIEWS FPMA Bulletin

south sudan | staple foods Food prices rising consistently and at record highs food prices continued to increase in april in the capital, Juba, underpinned by the sharp depreciation of the local currency, tight domestic supplies and insecurity. However, a decline in petrol prices from the record highs in february and improved fuel availability in the major towns limited the increases. food prices remained three to four times above their levels a year earlier, in nominal terms. In the capital, Juba, prices of maize and wheat flour rose by about 15 and 20 percent, respectively. Prices of staples, groundnuts and cassava, rose at a steeper rate. the weak local currency, particularly in the parallel market where it lost a further 18 percent of its value against the uS dollar in april, underpinned prices. a below-average 2016 harvest and insecurity hampering marketing activities were other key drivers supporting high food prices.

Uganda | MaizePrices of maize rose further in April to record levels Prices of maize continued to rise in april, although at a slower pace than in the previous month, and were at record highs in all monitored markets, more than twice their levels in april last year. Prices were underpinned by tight supplies from the reduced 2016 cereal output and concerns over the performance of the 2017 first season crops, to be harvested from June. crops were affected by early season dryness in southwestern areas and armyworm infestations in 20 districts in central and western areas, where up to 10 percent crop losses are projected. Sustained demand from neighbouring countries provided further support. High prices of maize have triggered an increase in poultry feeding costs resulting in higher consumer prices for chicken and eggs. High demand given the Easter holidays was another driver behind the sharp increase of exotic chicken and beef prices in april. In the capital city market of Kampala, wholesale prices of important staples, beans and cassava flour, rose by some 40 percent in the past three months.


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

-1.7

-3.8

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: South Sudan, Juba, Retail, Maize (white)

-0.6

2.1


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

5.2

9.0

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Uganda, Busia, Wholesale, Maize

3.6

-0.3

United Republic of Tanzania | Maize Prices of maize continued to increase in April Prices of maize rose further in april and reached record levels in all monitored markets. this reflects the sharply-reduced 2016 vuli harvest, concluded last february in northern and eastern bi-modal rainfall areas, due to a severe drought. the upward pressure on prices was exacerbated by concerns over the performance of both the 2017 msimu and masika crops, to be harvested in the coming months, due to generally erratic rainfall. Sustained demand from neighbouring countries and increased fuel prices also supported maize prices. Prices of rice in Dar es Salaam, the principal end market accounting for more than half of the national rice consumption, declined in recent months and were well below their year-earlier levels, reflecting the good supplies from the 2016 bumper harvest. Prices of beans eased in april and were lower than a year earlier.


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

7.1

11.7

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: United Republic of Tanzania, Arusha, Wholesale, Maize

4.5

-0.5


7



WesT afRICa

Coarse grain prices increased seasonally in most countries and showed some stability in Nigeria

In the Sahel belt, prices of locally-produced millet and sorghum, the main staples, increased in april in most countries. In Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, prices rose further steeply despite the good availabilities from the 2016 bumper harvests. large institutional purchases compounded the seasonal upward pressure, pushing prices to levels above those a year earlier, particularly in some areas of niger, affected by localized production shortfalls last year. In Chad, coarse grain prices increased in March in most markets but remained lower than a year earlier reflecting last year’s bumper crop and improved availability of imported foods after the reopening of the border with libya which was closed in January this year. In Senegal, coarse grain prices were stable or increased slightly in March. Prices of sorghum were generally down from a year earlier, while those of millet were higher due to a decline

in the 2016 production which was down by about 13 percent compared to the 2015 output although still above average. In most countries of the Sahel, prices of rice remained overall stable and were generally around or below their year-earlier values. In coastal countries, in Togo, maize prices continued to increase seasonally in april but remained below their year-earlier levels. In Nigeria, coarse grain prices were mostly stable or declined in March mainly reflecting a recent stability in the local currency against the uS dollar. However, the overall weak currency, civil insecurity and high transport costs continued to keep prices well above their year-earlier levels. the average price of rice increased only slightly in March but was more than 50 percent higher year-on-year. Prices of domestically-produced white gari continued to increase at a steep rate in March and were at record highs.


Wholesale prices of coarse grains in selected West African countries

Percent Change

100200

120200

140200

160200180200

200200

220200

240200

260200


Burkina Faso, Ouagadougou, Sorghum (local)

Mali, Bamako, Millet (local)

Niger, Niamey, Millet (local)

CFA Franc BCEAO per tonne

165000.

180000.

240000.

0

2.9

4.3

17.9

5.9

20

3.1

12.5

33.3

Source (s): Afrique verte

Latest Price(Mar-17) 1M 3M 1Y

Wholesale prices of maize in Nigeria

Percent Change

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17

Kano

Kaura Namoda

Lagos

Maiduguri

Naira per 100 kg

13720.0

15476.0

15920.0

13580.0

-6.3

-1

4.1

-2.1

15.3

20.9

10.9

12.5

89.5

105.3

59.2

63

Source (s): FEWSNET


Retail prices of maize in Togo

Percent Change

50

100

150

200

250

300


Anie

Lomé

Korbongou

Kara

CFA Franc BCEAO per kg

154.00

167.00

149.00

126.00

11.6

12.8

-4.5

1.6

33.9

25.6

11.2

6.8

-7.8

-16.5

-16.3

-28

Source (s): Ministère de l’Agriculture, de l’Elevange et de la Pèche


GIEWS FPMA Bulletin8 10 May 2017


sOUTheRN afRICa

maize prices under downward pressure from expectations of a bumper maize harvest in 2017

In most countries of the subregion, the forecast of a bumper maize output in 2017 as well as early harvest pressure, pushed prices further downwards in april. In South Africa, with the harvest underway, prices of maize continued to fall on account of expectations of a near-record production in 2017. this represents a significantly-improved supply situation compared to the previous year, when maize output was sharply reduced by drought. However, prices in april decreased at a slower pace than in March due to a slight depreciation of the local currency against the uS dollar. Maize meal prices in Namibia and Swaziland, which are dependent on South african grain supplies to meet their consumption needs, were generally stable, but overall down on an annual basis reflecting the lower import costs from South africa. In addition, improved maize outputs anticipated this year further contributed to the reduced

year-on-year price levels in both countries. In Mozambique, maize prices declined in most markets in april due to favourable supply expectations on account of the above-average 2017 maize output forecast, while imported inflation eased following a moderate appreciation of the local currency against the rand of South africa, the country’s main source of maize grain. In Zimbabwe, prices of maize meal moved marginally upwards in March ahead of the harvest but were well below their levels a year earlier with the 2017 maize output forecast to rebound strongly from the previous year’s reduced level. Prices in Zambia and Malawi also reportedly fell in april as the early harvest and favourable production prospects exerted downward pressure. Prospects for an above-average output prompted the Government of Zambia to lift the suspension on maize exports in late april (fPMa food Policies).


Wholesale prices of maize in Randfontein, South Africa

Percent Change

1500

2000

2500

30003500

4000

4500

5000

5500


Maize (white)

Maize (yellow)

Rand per tonne

2005.60

2090.89

-6.1

-2.7

-41.1

-34.3

-55.6

-32.7

Source (s): SAFEX Agricultural Products Division


Retail prices of maize meal in Namibia

Percent Change

7

8

9

1011

12

13

14

15


Otjiwarongo

Gobabis

Katima

Namibia Dollar per Kg

11.48

11.90

12.80

-14.1

0

0

-11.1

-10.9

-10.5

-2.7

-10.9

-11.1

Source (s): Namibia Statistics Agency

http://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/regional-roundups/en/http://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/food-policies/detail/en/c/883597/

9




Retail prices of maize meal in Swaziland

Percent Change

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14


National average

Hhohho

Shiselweni

Lubombo

Lilangeni per kg

11.22

11.60

11.60

11.00

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

-11.8

-12.1

-12.1

-15.3

Source (s): Central Statistical O�ce (CSO)


Retail prices of white maize in Mozambique

Percent Change

0

10

20

30

40

50


Nampula

Angonia

Gorongosa

Maputo

Metical per kg

17.14

18.86

10.39

28.57

-15.1

0

-51.2

-4.8

-33.8

-14.3

-65.9

-15.5

-4

24.6

-48

-10.5

Source(s): Sistema De Informação De Mercados Agrícolas De Moçambique

sOUTheRN afRICa contd.


Retail prices of maize meal in Zimbabwe

Percent Change

56789

1011121314


Harare

Manicaland

Midlands

Mash east

US Dollar per 10 Kg

7.66

6.27

6.70

6.00

0.1

2

1.7

0

1.1

2.6

12.2

3.6

-26.1

-40.7

-35.7

-46

Source(s): ZIMSTAT




easT afRICa

Cereal prices continued to increase sharply in april and reached record or near-record highs

In most countries of the subregion, cereal prices continued to increase in april and were at record or near-record levels. the upward pressure from the drought-reduced 2016 second season outputs was exacerbated by uncertain prospects for the upcoming 2017 harvests due to early season dryness, forecasts of unfavourable weather and crop pests affecting key-growing areas. In Uganda and the United Republic of Tanzania, sustained demand from neighbouring countries provided further support and pushed maize prices to record highs in april. In Kenya, despite recent Government measures to tackle the high cost of maize (fPMa food Policies), prices rose further in april and reached record or near-record levels. In Ethiopia, prices increased sharply for the second consecutive month in april, in spite of adequate supplies from the 2016 average output, as normal seasonal trends were exacerbated by concerns over the upcoming secondary season harvest. In South Sudan, cereal prices continued to increase in april in the capital, Juba, underpinned by the sharp depreciation of the local

currency, tight domestic supplies and insecurity. a further decline in petrol prices from the record highs in february limited the increases. Prices, however, remained three to four times above their levels a year earlier, in nominal terms. In the Sudan, prices of domestically-produced millet and sorghum were relatively stable or seasonally increased in april. Prices of sorghum were lower than a year earlier as a result of the above-average 2016 harvest. Prices of wheat, mostly imported and consumed in urban areas, generally declined in april as a result of improved supplies from the recently-completed harvest. However, prices remained higher than their year-earlier values due to the depreciation of the local currency and high production costs. In Somalia, prices of maize and sorghum remained stable or weakened in most markets in april mainly as a result of emergency food aid distributions. However, price spikes were recorded in Baidoa, the main market of the sorghum belt. overall, prices remained well above their year-earlier levels due the drought-reduced 2016 cereal output.


Wholesale prices of maize in the United Republic of Tanzania

Percent Change

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600


Dar es Salaam

Iringa

Arusha

Tanzanian Shilling per kg

1411.29

1161.29

1211.44

18.1

16.1

10.7

49.2

53.3

43.5

75.7

65.3

141.4

Source(s): Regional Agricultural Trade Intelligence Network


Wholesale prices of maize in Uganda

Percent Change

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800


Kampala

Busia

Lira

Uganda Shilling per kg

1545.15

1589.64

1593.22

7

8.3

15

36.3

32.2

41.7

84.6

96

111.1



11



easT afRICa contd.easT afRICa contd.


Wholesale prices of maize in Kenya

Percent Change

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000


Nakuru

Nairobi

Eldoret

Kisumu

Kenyan Shilling per tonne

47582.0

44998.0

46415.0

53948.0

18.2

0.2

22.2

7.9

42.5

40.3

46.3

41.5

85.4

44.9

69.7

78.6



Wholesale prices of maize in Ethiopia

Percent Change

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000


Addis Ababa

Mekele

Bahirdar

Shashemene

Ethiopian Birr per tonne

6005.00

5850.00

6000.00

6725.00

-0.7

1.1

9.1

12.1

27.8

26.1

30.4

34

30

17

36.4

22.8


Retail prices of selected cereals in Juba, South Sudan

Percent Change

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350


Maize (white)

Sorghum (Feterita)

Wheat (�our)

South Sudanese Pound per 3.5 kg

330.00

295.00

107.00

14.6

1

18.9

54.9

50.5

44.6

325.8

207.3

154.8

Source(s): Crop & Livestock Market Information System (CLIMIS)


Retail prices of maize and sorghum in Somalia

Percent Change

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000


Baidoa, Sorghum (red)

Mogadishu, Sorghum (red)

Mogadishu, Maize (white)

Marka, Maize (white)

Somali Shilling per kg

10750.0

9950.00

10775.0

9300.00

28

-0.3

0

-2.1

11.5

-13.2

-6

-17.7

166.4

63.7

48.4

21.6

Source(s): Food Security Analysis Unit




easT asIa

Prices of rice increased in exporters while stable elsewhere; those of wheat generally declined

In the exporting countries of the subregion, domestic prices of rice generally strengthened in april, supported by increased importer buying interest, while they remained relatively stable elsewhere. In Thailand, rice prices rose slightly reflecting stronger demand, particularly from countries of the near East preparing for ramadan. Similarly, in Myanmar, increased sales underpinned prices in april. Despite recent increases, however, prices in both countries remained lower than the corresponding month last year on account of an overall good domestic supply situation as a result of last year’s recovery in production. In India, rice quotations were mostly stable, with bulk of the 2017 rabi season harvest yet to come. By contrast, in Viet Nam, rice prices declined and were lower than in april last year reflecting improved supplies from the ongoing 2017 winter/spring harvest and a slow pace of exports. In Cambodia, rice prices increased further in the main producing areas and were higher than a year earlier. among importers, prices were stable and close to their year-earlier levels in China, as a result of ample inventories, and also in the Philippines and Indonesia, reflecting adequate market supplies from the recently-completed harvests. In Sri Lanka, prices remained firm and at high levels, due to the sharp reduction in the 2017 main maha season harvest and unfavourable prospects for the 2017 secondary crop, currently

being planted under unfavourable conditions due to low irrigation water availability. In Bangladesh, rice prices increased further in april and reached record levels as a result of reduced production from the 2017 main boro season following floods. reduced imports in recent months also added to the upward trend. as for wheat and wheat flour, prices generally decreased in the subregion’s main producers with the ongoing or recently-concluded 2017 harvests, while they remained generally stable in importers with a few exceptions. Price declines were recorded in most markets in India, with improved supplies from the 2017 harvest, officially estimated at a record level. Similarly, in Pakistan, the start of the 2017 rabi harvest weighed on wheat prices. In Bangladesh, wheat flour prices also weakened for the second consecutive month in april and were below their year-earlier levels as a result of improved availabilities from the 2017 wheat harvest, estimated at a good level, and increased imports in recent months. the continuing distribution of wheat flour by the Government through open Market Sales also contributed to keep prices at low levels. Prices were generally stable in importers, China and Indonesia as well as Sri Lanka, reflecting adequate market availabilities. In Afghanistan, wheat and wheat flour prices generally declined due to increased flows of imports after the reopening of borderds with Pakistan in late March.


Wholesale prices of rice in Bangkok, Thailand

Percent Change

10

11

12

13

14

15


Rice (5% broken)

Rice (25% broken)

Baht per kg

11.59

11.21

1.7

1.7

-2.7

-2.6

-5.9

-4.7

Source(s): Department of Internal Trade, Ministry of Commerce


Wholesale prices of rice in Yangon, Myanmar

Percent Change

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600


Rice (Emata, EHYV-FQ)

Rice (Emata, Manawthukha-FQ)

Kyat per kg

395.77

391.58

1.3

3.7

5.7

7.9

-6.4

-21.6

Source(s): E-Trade Myanmar


13



easT asIa contd.


Wholesale prices of rice in Viet Nam

Percent Change

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000


An Giang, Rice (25% broken)

An Giang, Rice (20% broken)

Dong Thap, Rice (20% broken)

Dong Thap, Rice (25% broken)

Dong per kg

6987.50

6887.50

7150.00

7083.33

-1.6

-1.6

-1.2

-0.7

3.5

3.6

1.7

2.4

-6.8

-8.8

-3.4

-3.6

Source(s): Agroinfo


Retail prices of rice and wheat flour in Colombo, Sri Lanka

Percent Change

50

60

70

80

90

100

110


Rice (white)

Wheat (�our)

Sri Lanka Rupee per kg

77.12

89.95

0.7

0.8

-17.4

0.8

15

-2.5

Source(s): Department of Census and Statistics


Retail prices of rice and wheat flour in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Percent Change

22

27

32

37

42


Wheat (�our)

Rice (Medium)

Taka per kg

23.75

43.00

-2.1

3.4

-4

7.2

-5.9

23.2

Source(s): Department of Agriculture Marketing (DAM), Bangladesh


Retail prices of wheat and wheat flour in Pakistan

Percent Change

25

30

35

40

45

50


Karachi, Wheat

Karachi, Wheat (�our)

Lahore, Wheat

Lahore, Wheat (�our)

Pakistan Rupee per kg

36.00

43.42

35.63

37.65

-1.6

-3.1

0

-0.9

-1.4

-2.3

2.9

-0.9

2.9

6.9

2.9

-2.5

Source(s): Pakistan Bureau of Statistics




CIs - asIa aND eUROPe

export and domestic prices of wheat flour overall stable

In the exporting countries of the subregion, domestic and export prices of milling wheat and wheat flour remained stable or weakened somewhat in april. In Ukraine, prices of wheat eased after the increases of the past three months mainly as a result of a slowdown in demand and a stronger currency, while those of high-grade wheat flour strengthened somewhat due to reduced market availabilities. In the Russian Federation, prices declined on account of high domestic supplies and a stronger currency. reduced sales to key buyer, turkey, after its decision to restrict imports which was then withdrawn (fPMa food Policies), also pressured prices downward. However, an overall sustained pace of exports in april, particularly to Egypt, limited the decline. In Kazakhstan, export prices of milling wheat remained virtually unchanged as a result of low trading activity. In import-dependent countries of the subregion, prices of wheat flour remained unchanged or declined in Kyrgyzstan, reflecting good domestic supplies and stable export prices. Similarly, in Armenia, prices of high grade and first grade wheat flour eased

somewhat in april and were around their year-earlier levels. By contrast, in Tajikistan, prices of wheat flour strengthened mainly due to recent increases in fuel and transport costs but remained lower than in april last year. In Azerbaijan, prices of wheat flour rose further in March despite sustained imports. Wheat flour and food prices, in general, were supported by the persisting weak currency, although it strengthened in the past few months, and the increase in tariffs of electricity, water and gas on 1 January this year. rising food prices were the main drivers behind the increase of the year-on-year inflation rate in the first quarter of 2017, which in March stood at 14.5 percent, up from 13.1 percent in february. In Georgia, wheat flour prices rose in april reversing the decline of the previous month but were still around their year-earlier levels. In Belarus, wheat flour and food prices in March were overall higher than a year earlier sustained by general inflation, which, however, declined in the early months of 2017, going from nearly 10 percent in January to around 6 percent in March.


Wholesale prices of wheat and wheat flour in Ukraine

Percent Change

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000


National Average, Wheat (3rd class, bid, EXW, processing)

National Average, Wheat (�our, �rst grade, o�er, EXW)

National Average, Wheat (�our, highest grade, o�er, EXW)

Hryvnia per tonne

4812.50

5950.00

6612.50

-0.2

-0.2

1.4

6.4

3.7

8

21.8

9

16.8

Source(s): APK-Inform Agency


Export prices of milling wheat

Percent Change

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

290


Export, Kazakhstan, Wheat (milling)

Export, Russian Federation, Wheat (milling, o�er, f.o.b., deep-sea ports)

Export, Ukraine, Wheat (milling, o�er, f.o.b.)

USD per tonne

185.00

188.50

188.25

0

-1.8

-0.4

2.8

2.3

2.6

5.7

1.3

3.7



15



CIs - asIa aND eUROPe contd.


Retail prices of wheat flour in Armenia

Percent Change

200

250

300

350

400

450


National Average, Wheat (�our, high grade)

National Average, Wheat (�our, �rst grade)

Armenian Dram per kg

393.68

219.74

-0.5

-1.9

0.1

-1.9

0.4

-3.7

Source(s): National Statistical Service of the Republic of Armenia


Retail prices of wheat flour in Azerbaijan

Percent Change

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4


Wheat (�our)

Wheat (�our, local)

Wheat (�our, imported)

Manat per kg

1.02

0.81

1.29

2

1.2

4

14.6

6.6

-3

34.2

42.1

3.2

Source(s): State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan


Retail prices of wheat flour in Kyrgyzstan

Percent Change

24

26

28

30

32

34

36


Bishkek

National Average

Naryn

Batken

Som per kg

29.38

29.69

27.86

27.18

0.9

0.6

-4.7

-3.5

0.9

-1

-4.7

-5.5

-5.4

-6

-15.3

6.5

Source(s): National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic


Wholesale prices of wheat and wheat flour in the Russian Federation

Percent Change

7000

9000

11000

13000

15000

17000

19000

21000


National Average, Wheat (Milling, 3rd class, o�er, EXW)

Volga region, Wheat (�our, highest grade, o�er, EXW)

Central Black Earth, Wheat (�our, highest grade, o�er, EXW)

Southern region, Wheat (�our, highest grade, o�er, EXW)

Russian Ruble per tonne

10100.0

15800.0

15300.0

16075.0

-2.5

0

-3.2

-2.1

-8

-3.7

-7.1

-2.6

-10.8

-3.9

-3.2

-7





CeNTRaL ameRICa aND The CaRIBBeaN

Prices of white maize and red beans generally stable and at low levels in april White maize prices remained relatively unchanged or increased slightly in april with the beginning of the lean season, which will end in late august, when the 2017 main season harvest starts. In most countries, prices were significantly below their levels a year earlier reflecting the strong recovery in maize output in 2016 after two years of drought-reduced crops. In Honduras and Nicaragua, prices seasonally increased by nearly 2 percent but were some 30 percent down from april last year as a result of the good output in 2016. In Guatemala and El Salvador, prices remained virtually unchanged reflecting well-supplied markets from the recent harvests and imports. Maize prices were 16 and 38 percent below their levels a year earlier, respectively. In Mexico, white maize prices remained also relatively stable in april, after increasing in previous months in anticipation of the 2017 secondary season harvest which is about to start and is expected to be a good level. However, prices of maize grain and tortillas were above their values a year earlier supported by high fuel prices and increased production costs. In Haiti, maize meal prices were overall stable with the exception of markets in the south and northwest

of the country. In most markets, prices were well above their levels in april last year. Prices of staple red beans remained stable in El Salvador and Honduras in april and were some 6 to 11 percent lower than a year earlier, respectively, reflecting ample supplies from the good 2016 crop. By contrast, in Nicaragua, the main producer and exporter in the subregion, prices of red beans declined sharply for the second consecutive month in april, as product from the third season harvest continued to supply markets keeping prices well below their year-earlier values. In Guatemala, where black beans are the variety mostly consumed and produced, prices increased by almost 4 percent after declining in previous months. the increase is mainly due to the completion of the harvests in the northern region of Petén. In Mexico, the reduced 2016/17 harvests and increased production costs kept prices of black beans some 30 percent higher than in april last year. In Haiti, prices of red and black beans were overall stable in april and below or around their levels a year earlier. In the Dominican Republic, retail prices of red and black beans weakened with the recent first 2017 harvests and were around their levels in april last year.


Wholesale prices of beans in Central America

Percent Change

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000


Honduras, Tegucigalpa, Beans (red)

Guatemala, Guatemala City, Beans (black)

El Salvador, San Salvador, Beans (red)

Nicaragua, Managua (oriental), Beans (red)

USD per tonne

930.82

1206.48

1114.74

870.32

1.4

4.1

0.1

-4.6

23.2

-6.6

3.5

-7.8

-14.6

9.9

-5.9

-17.2

Source(s): SIMPAH; Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganadería y Alimentación; Dirección General de Economía Agropecuaria, MAG


Wholesale prices of white maize in Central America

Percent Change

200

250

300

350400

450

500

550

600


Guatemala, Guatemala City

El Salvador, San Salvador

Honduras, Tegucigalpa

Nicaragua, Managua (oriental)

USD per tonne

337.26

271.92

276.32

298.76

0.3

0.9

2.3

1.5

5.2

-4.8

-0.2

8.5

-11.9

-37.6

-31.9

-32.5

Source(s): Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganadería y Alimentación; Dirección General de Economía Agropecuaria, MAG; SIMPAH


17



sOUTh ameRICa

Cereal prices generally declined or remained stable in april Prices of yellow maize decreased further in april with the ongoing 2017 harvests which are expected at a good level in several countries. In Brazil, where a record maize output is anticipated, prices declined steeply in april with harvesting of the 2017 first season crops underway and were some 40 percent down from a year earlier. low prices prompted the Government to take measures to support producers (fPMa food Policies). In Argentina, some harvest delays due to heavy rains prevented a further decrease in prices in april, but they were nevertheless lower than the high levels a year earlier after declining sharply in the past two months on expectations of a record output this year. In Bolivia, maize prices declined in most markets as new product from the 2017 main verano harvest supplied markets; however, prices remained above their levels a year earlier due to overall tight supplies after two years of reduced production. In Chile, maize prices declined significantly in april with the progress of the 2017 harvest, which is, however, expected to decline for the second consecutive year. In Colombia, prices showed mixed trends across main markets but were well below their values a year earlier after declining in the past several months mainly as a result of large imports. In Peru, maize prices remained unchanged in april and were lower than in april last year on account of abundant imports in the first quarter of the year which pushed down prices. In the areas affected by flooding earlier this year, prices of main staple potatoes declined in april but remained at relatively high levels, particularly in lambayeque and Piura markets. In these regions, prices of chicken meat also declined in april reversing the sharp increases

recorded in March and were at levels lower than those a year earlier. In Ecuador, maize prices were firm and at record or near-record highs in april, underpinned by tight supplies from the 2016 reduced output and uncertain prospects for the 2017 crop, about to be harvested. Wheat and wheat flour prices were generally stable across the subregion in april reflecting overall adequate supplies. In general, prices were below their year-earlier levels with the notable exception of Argentina, the subregion’s main exporter and producer, where prices were significantly higher than in april last year due to strong exports, sustained by currency weakness and Government’s measures. In Brazil, wheat prices remained relatively stable in april and were well below their year-earlier levels reflecting ample supplies from the 2016 harvest and imports. In Chile, prices of wheat grain increased moderately in april after the completion of the 2017 harvest in early March, which is estimated to be lower than last year’s record level but close to average. In Bolivia, prices of imported and locally-produced wheat flour were unchanged in april and generally around their levels a year earlier. In import-dependant Colombia, Peru and Ecuador, prices of wheat flour were relatively unchanged in april and lower year-on-year on account of sustained flows of imports. Prices of staple rice were stable and at low levels in Colombia and Ecuador, while in Peru wholesale prices increased in april and were 18 percent higher than their year-earlier values mainly due to expectations of a smaller output this year compared to the 2016 record crop. In Brazil, rice prices were also significantly higher than in april last year despite recent declines amidst low carryovers.


Wholesale prices of yellow maize in Brazil

Percent Change

300

400

500

600

700

800


São Paulo

National Average

Brazilian Real per tonne

440.92

385.91

-12.4

-11.7

-21.1

-26

-39.9

-41.6

Source (s): Agrolink


Wholesale prices of wheat flour in Bolivia

Percent Change

130

150

170

190

210

230

250

270


Santa Cruz, Wheat (�our, imported)

La Paz, Wheat (�our, imported)

Santa Cruz, Wheat (�our, local)

La Paz, Wheat (�our, local)

Boliviano per Spanish quintal (46 kg)

174.80

161.00

174.80

178.89

0

-0.8

0

-0.5

0

5.7

-5

-0.7

8.6

-2.8

5.9

-19.4

Source(s): Observatorio Agroambiental y Productivo – OAP/MDRy


This bulletin is prepared by the Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Team of the Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS) in the Trade and Markets Division of FAO. It contains latest information and analysis on domestic prices of basic foods mainly in developing countries, complementing FAO analysis on international markets. It provides early warning on high food prices at country level that may negatively affect food security.

This report is based on information available up to early May 2017.

All the data used in the analysis can be found in the FPMA Tool at: www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/tool/public/index.html#/home

For more information visit the FPMA Website at: www.fao.org/giews/food-prices

Enquiries may be directed to:GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) TeamTrade and Markets Division (EST) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)Viale delle Terme di Caracalla00153 Rome, ItalyE-mail: [email protected]

Disclaimer The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.

The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO.

© FAO, 2017

I7230EN/1/05.17GIEWS FPMA Bulletin | 10 May 2017
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Documents

GIEWS FPMA Bulletin #4, 10 May 2017 · preparing for ramadan. the exception was Viet nam, where prices declined on account of harvest pressure and after Government-to-Government deals