Global Energy

8/14/2019 Global Energy

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The Global Climate and Energy Project

Stanford

Participating outside institutionsPending outside institutions

Mission

Research on low-GHG emission energyconversions Focus on fundamental and pre-commercial

research Applications in the 10-50 years timeframe

Strategy Research projects with potential for significant

impact on GHG emissions Look for potential breakthroughs for new

conversion options High risk / high reward Work at Stanford and at other institutions

around the world

Schedule and Budget 10 years (2003 2013+) $225 M


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Total global energy demand

70%increase

(International Energy Outlook 2006)


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Developing countries


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and our energy use


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Our energy-dependence (1)


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Our energy-dependence (2)


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Energy use by type

(International Energy Outlook 2006)


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Peak oilPeak oil

N.B. based on USGS estimates, these are among the most optimistic

(Energy Information administration)


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Peak oil (again)

http://info.energyscenariosireland.com/Overview


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Declining production (1)

resourcedepleted

Time

P r o

d u c t

i o n

s u p p l y


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Declining production (2)

production gap!

Time

P r o

d u c t

i o n d e m a

n d

s u p p l y


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John Hess, CEO of Hess Corp. We've moved from a supply-led market to a demand-led one.

In the past, the world has relied on OPEC's spare capacity,which in 1985 was 10 million barrels per day. Today that

number is about 2.5 million barrels a day. We no longer havea safety margin to ensure price stability in the face of supply

interruptions and demand spikes. Right now it's hard to seeany relief in sight. Then there's demand. About 50 percent of

oil demand is for transportation, and auto ownership in thedeveloping countries is growing swiftly, especially in India and

China. .. Put those two things together - limited supply and increasing demand - and you get high oil prices.

(Newsweek, March 15, 2008, http://www.newsweek.com/id/123482)


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International Energy AgencyFall 2008

The worlds energy system is at a crossroads. Current globaltrends in energy supply and consumption are patently

unsustainable - environmentally, economically, socially. But thatcan - and must - be altered; theres still time to change the road

were on. It is not an exaggeration to claim that the future ofhuman prosperity depends on how successfully we tackle thetwo central energy challenges facing us today: securing the

supply of reliable and affordable energy; and effecting a rapid

transformation to a low-carbon, efficient and environmentallybenign system of energy supply. What is needed is nothing

short of an energy revolution.

http://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/WEO2008SUM.pdf


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New find in GOM(Jack No. 2 test well)

up to 3-15 billion barrels of oil

US consumption 20 million barrels/day

5 months - 2 years

reservoir is 8 km under sea level


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A Quest for Energy in the GlobesRemote Places

(New York Times, October 9, 2007)

A natural gas cargo ship passing Melkoya Island, across the bay from Hammerfest, Norway.


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Oil-Rich Nations UseMore Energy, Cutting Exports

(New York Times, December 9, 2007)


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Who has the oil?

USAChina

India

(http://www.energybulletin.net/37329.html)


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What is the plan?


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A New, Global Oil Quandary: Costly Fuel Means Costly Calories

(NYT, January 19, 2008)

Rising prices for cooking oil are forcing residents of Asiaslargest slum, in Mumbai, India, to ration every drop. Bakeries

in the United States are fretting over higher shortening costs.


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Carbohydrates and biofuel

Do we feed humans or cars?

Is it a good idea to compete with our machines for calories?

glucosecellulose


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Research: biofuel from cellulose

0 5 10 15 20 25Feed cost ($/GJ)

25

20

15

10

5

P r o c e s s

i n g c o s t s

( $ / G J )

oil(100$/barrel)

gas

starch(glucose)

cellulose

vegetableoil

http://gcep.stanford.edu/research/biomass.html(Figure adapted from Lange, J.P., Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining, 1: 39-48, 2007)


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First solar 2 MW arrayFt. Carson, CO


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Research: efficient solar cells

1 m m

http://gcep.stanford.edu/research/solar.html


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Fossil fuel reserves

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005

The R/P ratio is the numberof years that provedreserves would last atcurrent production rates.

World R/P ratios are:Oil = 40.5 years;Natural Gas = 66.7 years;Coal = 164 years

U.S. R/P ratios are:Oil = 11.1 years;Natural Gas = 9.8 years;

Coal = 245 years

Oil Gas Coal

40.5 yrs.

66.7 yrs.

164 yrs.

200

0

P r o v e n

W o r l d

R e s e r v e s -

t o -

P r o d u c t

i o n

R a t i o a t

E n

d 2 0 0 4

( Y e a r s )

100

Your children

Your grand-children


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Non-conventional reserves(excluding gas and coal)

Produced (gone)Proved Reserves

Undiscovered(?)

EOR Extra Heavy Oil& Tar Sands Shale Oil

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Trillions of Barrels Recoverable

Years Supply at2005 Production

Unconventional petroleum resources:(more difficult & dirty, and therefore expen$ive)

Conventional(easy)

0 25 50

(Courtesy of Joe Stefani)


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Worlds unconventional production

N.B. Worlds annual oil consumption 2006 is 85 million barrels/daySource: Energy Information Administration, 2007


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The Greenhouse Effect


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Temperature and CO 2 records

1 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 now

Thousands of year before present

20

-2-4-6-8

-10

T e m p e r a t u r e c h a n g e

( o C )

400

350

300

250200

C a r

b o n

D i o x o

d e ( p p m v )


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IPCC 4th Report

http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf

850 ppm CO 2 in 2100 (A2)680 ppm CO 2 in 2100 (A1B)

550 ppm CO 2 in 2100 (B1)Year 2000 constant concentration

20th century

4oC


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What is 4 oC difference?

1 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 now

Thousands of year before present

20

-2-4-6-8

-10

T e m p e r a

t u r e c h a n g e

( o C )

WrmRiss

4oC

4o

C

A ti i 1995 2007


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Arctic sea ice 1995-2007

(National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder)

A ti i 2005 2007


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Arctic sea ice 2005-2007

(National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder)

4.3 million sq km4.3 million sq km


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Sea-level rise in Florida


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. and in other parts of the world

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Sea_Level_Rise_Maps_Gallery

b


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Curbing CO 2 emissions

(Pacala and Socolow, Science, 305, 968-971, 2004)

Th 7 d


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The 7 wedges

(Pacala and Socolow, Science, 305, 968-971, 2004)

Choose 7 out of 15 wedges


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Choose 7 out of 15 wedgesdistributed over:

energy efficiency and conservation

nuclear energy

renewable energy and fuels

more efficient forest and land use

injecting CO 2 in the subsurface


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One wedge is ..

generate electricity at 60% efficiency

wind turbines: 3% of the USA surface

photovoltaics: 700 X todays use

nuclear power: double (build 500) inject 3 Giga-ton of CO 2 per year

ff


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Energy efficiencyLost energy = 60%!

R h hi h


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Research: high-temperaturecombustion

turbinefuel/H 20

http://gcep.stanford.edu/research/combustion.html

Efficiency can pay off


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Efficiency can pay off

Current USA emissions: 7 Gigatons CO 2/year

Source: McKinsey analysis, http://mckinsey.com/clientservice/ccsi/greenhousegas.asp

Gigatons/year

Cost per ton CO 290

60

30

0

-30

-60

-90

-120-230

1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0


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C o s

t ( $ p e r

t o n

C O

2 )

321US CO 2 emission avoided (gigatons/year)

40

0

-40

-80

e l e c t r

o n i c s a

n d l i g h t

i n g

e f f i c

i e n t c

a r s a n d

t r u c

k s

e f f i c

i e n t n

e w b u i l

d i n g s

c o m

b i n e d h e

a t / p

o w e r

p o w e

r g e n e

r a t i o

n / i n d

u s t r y

o t h e

r

o t h e

r i n c

l . n u c

l e a r

a g r i c u

l t u r e

, f o r

e s t r y

, l a n d u s e

i m p r o

v e e x i s

t i n g b u i l d

i n g s

r e n e

w a b l e

e n e r

g y

c a r b

o n s e

q u e s t r a

t i o n

40% of current US emissions!

H h CO ?


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How much CO 2 to sequester?

one wedge is 3 GtCO 2/year

world oil roduction is 4 Gt/ ear

1 km

2 km


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The Sleipner project as a

show-caseX 3500 !

K i f


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Kuwait from space

N

30 km

R h i


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Research: gas separation

http://gcep.stanford.edu/research/co2capture.html

Develop membranes toseparate H 2 or CO 2 for carbon-free hydrogenproduction.

Wh I d d ?


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What can I do as educator?

I think we have the responsibility to insist thateducation is more than learning job skills, that it isalso the bedrock of a democracy. I think we must be

very careful that in the race to become wealthier,

more prestigious, and to be ranked Number One,we don't lose sight of the real purpose of education,

which is to make people free - to give them thegrounding they need to think for themselves and

participate as intelligent members of a free society.

Myers, T.M., A student is not an input, NYT, March 26, 2001

How much CO is produced by


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How much CO 2 is produced byburning the coal in one railroad car?

Conservation requires education


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Conservation requires education

From the thirteen myths


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From the thirteen myths . Todays energy crisis is a hype

The public is well informed about energy

The hydrogen economy is a solution

Efficiency improvements have reached their potential Climate policy will bankrupt the US economy

World-wide power systems are optimal

(Energy and American society - thirteen myths, eds. B.K. Sovacool and M.A. Brown)

Lobby for a climate


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Lobby for a climatecommitment

http://www.presidentsclimatecommitment.org/

Initiate the development of a comprehensiveplan to achieve climate neutrality as soon as

possible. Initiate two or more of the following tangible

actions to reduce greenhouse gases whilethe more comprehensive plan is being

developed. Make the action plan, inventory, and periodic

progress reports publicly available

Wh t I d ?


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What can I do as consumer?

Lighting Transportation Appliances

Oil needed to produce bottled water


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Oil needed to produce bottled water

(http://www.armchairenvironmentalist.com/blog/index.php?paged=2)

Kirsch Center


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Kirsch Center DeAnza Community College

Energy saving: $65,000/year


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Consider the life-cycle


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Recycle!


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Recycle!

Goods and materials 38%Local passenger transport 12%

Buildingenergy use31%

Inter-citypassenger transport 7%

Food 12%

US CO 2 emissions per sector (2005), source US EPA

What can I do as student?


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What can I do as student?

become a professional

seek out new opportunities

push for energy conservation

Seek projects


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Seek projects

http://community.uui.asu.edu/features/solar.asp

What can I do in business?


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What can I do in business?

Seek opportunities in sustainable business (for ideas:http://www.sustainablebusiness.com )

Create an energy plan and save.

Imagine what is possible when

energy prices rise.

http://www.danchiras.com

What can I do as citizen?
http://www.sustainablebusiness.com/http://www.sustainablebusiness.com/


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What can I do as citizen?

Ask: what is our energy plan? Start a discussion in your community.

Demand that the United States becomes aworld-leader in responsible use of energy.

That which we are, we shall teach, not voluntarily but involuntarily. [Emerson]

What if we had the courage to


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What if we had the courage todream ..

and raise fuel standards for cars by 25% to European levels,

generate 20% of electricity by wind (as Denmark does),

generate another 20% of electricity from sunlight,

and conserve 20% by increased efficiency.

This can be done if we want it to happen!

To have sustainable economic growth 10 years from now, bothconsumers and producers need to start acting now.

John Hess, CEO of Hess Corporation in Newsweek, 3/15/2008http://www.newsweek.com/id/123482

Questions/comments?


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Questions/comments?

Send feedback to Roel Snieder: email rsnieder@mines edu

The difference between stumbling blocksand stepping stones is how you use them.

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