GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK...Global Market Outlook 3 The Fed’s decision not to ‘taper’ quantitative easing (QE) may extend the validity of our B.R.I.D.G.E. investment framework. In

This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank

Economic data continues to surprise on the upside. The US,

European and Japanese economic recoveries are continuing, while

China has seen a recent upturn in its economic indicators.

The Fed’s decision to delay the tapering of quantitative easing may

extend the life of our B.R.I.D.G.E. investment framework with global

equities and the income generation theme getting a boost.

However, the big picture has not changed, in our opinion. It remains

a matter of time before the Fed proceeds with tapering. While it is

possible that EM equities may outperform in the near term, there are two

things to note:

DM equities are expected to continue performing well,

especially as we head into a seasonally strong Oct-Dec period.

We continue to have a preference for DM equities over EM on a

6-12 month basis, with Europe remaining our favoured market.

We remain Underweight global bonds, as we expect the uptrend in

yields to continue longer term. Within USD bonds, we continue to prefer

a short maturity portfolio and US high yield bonds.

USD rally may be delayed by the Fed’s decision to postpone QE

tapering. This may allow the AUD to extend its gains short term.

Contents Market Performance Summary Pg 2

Investment strategy Pg 3

Economic and policy outlook Pg 4

Asset class outlook

Fixed income Pg 6

Equities Pg 7

Commodities Pg 9

Alternative strategies Pg 10

Foreign exchange Pg 10

Conclusion Pg 11

Asset allocation summary Pg 12

Economic & market calendar Pg 13

Disclaimer Pg 14

Fed tries to lower interest rate expectations Implied 3-month interest rates (Eurodollar futures)

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Data as of 19 Sept 2013

Heading towards a seasonally strong period US and European equity markets- average monthly returns from 1993

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

Steve Brice Chief Investment Strategist

Rob Aspin, CFA Head, Equity Investment Strategy

Manpreet Gill Head, FICC Investment Strategy

Adi Monappa, CFA Head, Asset Allocation

Audrey Goh, CFA Investment Strategist

Victor Teo, CFA Investment Strategist

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Mar

-14

Jun-

14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Jun-

15

Sep

-15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

%

1-May 19-Sep

Fed's median forecast (end 2016)

Fed's median forecast (end 2015)

-1.2

-0.7

-0.2

0.3

0.8

1.3

1.8

2.3

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mon

thly

retu

rns

(%)

US EU

B.R.I.D.G.E. Extended

GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOKOctober 2013 This reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group

Asset Allocation Summary*

* ‘Start date’ reflects the date at which this tactical stance was initiated

Tactical Call Start Date

UW Feb-12

UW Jan-11

OW Aug-12

UW Jun-13

OW Jun-13

Equity

Commodities

Alternatives

L1 Asset Class

CashFixed Income

L1 Asset Class L2 Asset Class Tactical Call Start Date

Cash UW Feb-12

DM IG UW Jan-11

EM IG N Oct-12

DM HY OW Sep-11

EM HY N Sep-12US OW Apr-12

Europe OW Jul-13Japan N Apr-13

Asia ex-Japan UW Jun-13Other EM UW Aug-12

Commodities UW Jun-13Alternatives OW Jun-13

Fixed Income

Equity

Global Market Outlook

2

*Performance in USD terms unless otherwise stated, YTD period from 31 Dec 2012 – 16 May 2013 Sources: MSCI, JP Morgan, Barclays Capital, Citigroup, Dow Jones, HFRX, FTSE, Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

* All performance shown in USD terms unless otherwise stated. *YTD performance data from 31 Dec 2012 – 19 September 2013 and 1 Month performance from 22 August – 19 September 2013 Sources: MSCI, JP Morgan, Barclays Capital, Citigroup, Dow Jones, HFRX, FTSE, Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

Market Performance Summary (Year to date & 1 Month)*

-2.0%1.8%

4.6%7.2%

10.7%

-12.8%-9.2%

-2.0%-1.6%-1.4%

2.6%

-20.1%-18.4%

-13.5%-8.8%

-6.5%3.3%

-2.1%-0.6%

3.7%3.9%

8.3%

-7.7%-5.2%

-3.0%-3.9%

-2.4%0.5%

0.3%6.3%

12.3%12.4%

17.6%16.5%17.4%

20.2%23.4%

29.2%28.6%

-7.8%-7.3%

-4.4%-2.3%

-1.0%4.7%

2.4%2.6%

8.0%14.7%

16.7%17.8%

19.4%19.1%

22.4%24.2%

‐30% ‐20% ‐10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647484950515253545556575859606162636465666768697071

Year to Date

0.4%0.2%0.8%0.9%1.6%

-0.8%4.8%

2.8%1.6%

2.8%1.3%

0.1%-0.7%

-1.6%2.2%

0.8%-0.1%

1.1%3.2%

1.3%1.4%

3.0%

3.7%4.1%

2.4%0.6%1.0%1.7%

7.4%7.9%

5.3%6.0%

5.1%5.1%

6.8%6.6%

7.4%6.5%

3.4%

18.8%16.1%

12.3%11.1%11.1%11.8%

10.0%7.7%

10.4%5.6%5.8%

5.4%5.2%

-1.3%4.2%

7.7%

‐5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Macro CTAsArbitrage

Composite (All strategies)Equity Long/Short

Event Driven

JPYAUDSGD

Asia ex-JapanGBPEUR

Precious MetalGold

Industrial MetalAgriculture

Diversified CommodityCrude Oil

Global IG CorporatesAsia High Yield Corporates

US High YieldGlobal High Yield Corporates

Europe High Yield

EM IG SovereignAsia EM Local Currency

Global HY SovereignGlobal IG Sovereign

US SovereignEU Sovereign

MaterialsGlobal Property Equity/REITs

UtilitiesEnergy

Consumer StaplesIT

TelecomFinancialIndustrial

Consumer DiscretionaryHealthcare

BrazilIndia

EM ex AsiaAfrica

Emerging Markets (EM)Russia

Asia ex-JapanChina

AustraliaGlobal High Dividend Yield Equities

Global equitiesEurope

Developed Markets (DM)Middle East

USJapan

Alternatives

FX (against USD)

Commodity

Bonds | Credit

Equity | Country & Region

Equity | Sector

Bonds | Sovereign

1 Month


3

The Fed’s decision not to ‘taper’ quantitative easing (QE) may

extend the validity of our B.R.I.D.G.E. investment framework.

In particular, we remain optimistic on the outlook for global

equities and selected income generating assets.

We expect the trend increase in bond yields to continue in the

coming 6-12 months.

Fed cautious, but still relatively upbeat. The Fed struck a slightly cautious

tone in its decision not to taper QE, but its forecasts are still for a significant

recovery in 2014. Its main concern is over tightening monetary conditions,

which have led to some weakness in the housing market. However, we see

the Fed’s decision as reinforcing the themes of global equity

outperformance and income generation strategies.

Both Emerging market (EM) and Developed market (DM) equities

should be given significant support by the Fed’s decision. On a relative

basis, however, we still prefer DM equities, particularly Europe, on a 6-

12 month basis. When looking at equity markets, we tend to focus on three

factors – valuations, economic momentum and liquidity. From a valuation

perspective, EM is still relatively attractive. However, we believe economic

momentum and liquidity is more favourable for DM:

We continue to believe the Chinese authorities favour

economic restructuring over a strong recovery and doubt the

economy will accelerate significantly in the coming 6-12 months.

We see the mix of eventually tighter US monetary policies

together with current account deficits and election cycles in

many EM countries as a potentially challenging mix for EM in

2014. This may drain liquidity from the region once the euphoria

surrounding the Fed decision fades.

Therefore, we believe DM equities will continue to outperform

EM on a 12-month time horizon. Our favoured market remains

Europe as the economy recovers, boosting medium term earnings

prospects. This does not mean that EM equity markets will

necessarily generate negative returns.

US Treasuries less expensive, but still expecting negative returns. The

rise in US Treasury yields over the past 4 months has reduced markedly the

overvaluation of US government bonds, in our opinion. This increases the

portfolio diversification benefits of this asset class going forward. However, it

is important to note our central expectation is for this asset class as a whole

to generate negative returns on a 12-month basis. Therefore, we retain our

short maturity profile stance in USD bond portfolios. The decline in yields

following the Fed’s September meeting is providing an opportunity for

investors to shorten their maturity profile where they have yet to do so.

We see DM equities as the favoured asset class on a 12 month view.

EM equities could continue outperforming in the short term, but we

doubt this will be sustained.

B.R.I.D.G.E. themes performing well so far B.R.I.D.G.E. performance YTD (USD)*

* For the period 31 Dec 2012 to 19 Sep 2013 Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered * Income basket is equally weighted performance of global high dividend yielding equities (MSCI ACWI High Dividend Yield USD),Global HY bonds (BarCap Global HY TR USD) and Asian local curr bonds (BarCap Asia Local Net TR USD, until 20 June)

Asset Performance (USD)*

* For the period 22 August to 19 September 2013

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Indices are JP Morgan US 3M Cash Index, MSCI AC World TR Net, CITI World BIG, DJ-UBS Commodities, DXY and ADXY

Fed still forecasting a strong recoveryFOMC member median forecasts (%)

Source: Federal Reserve, Standard Chartered

EU earnings playing catch-up YTD consensus EPS growth expectations*(indexed=100)

Source: MSCI, Datastream, Standard Chartered * *MSCI US & MSCI EU 12m forward EPS estimates

‐3.9%

3.9%

‐5.7%

14.7%

9.1%

16.7%

-12% -7% -2% 3% 8% 13% 18%

Overweight Assets

Underweight Assets

+ High Dividend Yield Equities

Diversified Income Basket

Global Equities

+ Asia Local Currency Bonds

+ Global High Yield Bonds

G3 IG Bonds

Trade closed on 20 June 2013

1.55

-1.37

0.78

0.59

5.80

0.03

-3 -1 1 3 5 7

Asian FX

USD Index

Commodities

Bonds

Equities

Cash

%

Change in real GDP

Sept projection 2.15 3.00 3.25 2.90

June projection 2.45 3.25 3.25 -

Unemployment rate



Inflation (PCE)



2014 2015 2016Variable 2013

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13

Ind

exed

(100=

1Jan 1

3)

US EU

Investment Strategy: Talk ≠ Action


4

Data continues to generally surprise on the upside.

In the US, manufacturing data has recovered strongly from a soft patch,

while housing market data is hinting at a modest slowdown.

In Europe and Japan, the data continues to improve.

In Asia, the data has clearly rebounded with China leading the way.

We remain sceptical as to how strong the Chinese authorities want the

economy to be and we are not looking for a strong recovery from here.

Key will be the Third Plenum in November.

US: Housing and labour market data slow, manufacturing recovers

Growth still likely to accelerate in H2, but some doubts emerge.

Manufacturing data has rebounded strongly while the labour market remains

relatively strong. However, there are some signs that the housing market

may be softening somewhat. On balance, we believe the long-awaited

economic acceleration is still likely.

Labour market still relatively strong. The employment report has

disappointed for two consecutive months with net job creation slowing

over that period. However, the continued decline in initial claims augurs

well, in our opinion, for the labour market to remain relatively firm.

Meanwhile, we have seen wage growth starting to tick slightly higher.

Housing market data ‘weakness’ spreads. Housing market data

weakness started with mortgage refinancing falling sharply on the back

of higher long term interest rates. We are also now seeing housing

starts – a measure of construction activity – starting to wane slightly.

Even house price gains slowed in the latest data, although they still rose

almost 1%. This is likely something the Fed is monitoring closely (as

well as labour market developments) in deciding when to taper policy.

Manufacturing rebound extends. Manufacturing business confidence

has risen sharply over the past two months. This gives us confidence in

the outlook for the manufacturing sector and the economy as a whole.

Fed on hold. There are 3 key things to note from the monetary policy

meeting last week.

Tapering: The Fed surprised the market by not tapering QE this month.

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke indicated FOMC members are monitoring

the impact of the tightening of ‘financial conditions’ – for example, rising

bond yields – on the economy.

Economic projections: The Fed’s growth outlook has moderated since

June. However, it is still looking for 3% growth in 2014, which is

significantly faster than its median 2.1-2.2% growth forecast for 2013.

Interest rate guidance: Bernanke reaffirmed 14 out of 17 FOMC

members expect interest rates to only rise in 2015 or later. The FOMC’s

median expectation is for the Fed Funds rate to be only 2% by the end

of 2016. This is a clear attempt to moderate interest rate expectations.

Debt ceiling talks will be key. The upcoming debt ceiling talks are a key

hurdle for financial markets. We believe the political dynamics are conducive

to this being a smoother process than in 2011, but we are still some way

from an agreement being reached.

US and Europe data still surprising on the upside Economic surprises indices – US & Euro area

Source: Citigroup, Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

Decline in new unemployment benefit claims suggest US job creation will remain robust US nonfarm payroll 3mma vs. Initial jobless claim 4wmma


US house prices still rising, but housing construction softens slightly US housing starts vs. Case Shiller-20 city home index


US manufacturing recovers strongly US ISM manufacturing PMI vs. ISM new orders SA


-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13

Ind

ex

US EU

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Mar-08 Jan-09 Nov-09 Sep-10 Jul-11 May-12 Mar-13

'000

'000

US nonfarm payroll 3mma Initial jobless claims 4wma (RHS)

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Aug-00 Aug-03 Aug-06 Aug-09 Aug-12

%

'000

US Housing starts Case-Shiller composite-20 city home index (y/y, RHS)

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

Aug-09 Mar-10 Oct-10 May-11 Dec-11 Jul-12 Feb-13

%%

ISM Manufacturing PMI ISM Manufacturing new orders SA (RHS)

Economic and policy outlook


5

Europe: Recovery continues

Euro area business confidence data strengthens. After moving

above the critical 50 level meant to separate expansion from contraction,

the manufacturing PMI – a measure of business confidence – rose

sharply again in August and is now at the highest level since June 2011.

We continue to believe the Euro area is likely to recover from its most

prolonged recession since its inception.

ECB remains reassuringly cautious. ECB President Mario Draghi has

continued to stress the need to keep monetary policy accommodative

and has not ruled out a further interest rate cut. While we believe an

interest rate cut is unlikely, it is reassuring to see the ECB is nowhere

close to thinking about tightening policy.

Asia: Japan continues to recover, China positively surprises

Japan:

Signs on capital spending positive. Machinery orders have been

picking up significantly. The Tankan survey on business confidence will

be critical to short term sentiment.

Consensus 2014 growth estimates have continued to rise, despite

rising expectations that the government will increase the consumption

tax in April 2014. The Bank of Japan has indicated it will act

appropriately should the consumption tax undermine economic activity.

China:

Strong rebound likely to be temporary. Data from China has clearly

taken a turn for the better with industrial production and exports, for

example, accelerating in the past two months. This has come as a relief

to investors. However, consensus 2014 growth forecasts are still falling

(currently 7.4%).

Policy: We expect the authorities to keep a tight leash on credit creation.

This may not be through official policy tightening, but via allowing short

term interest rates to rise gradually and pushing through with interest

rate liberalisation.

Asia:

Benefiting from the rebound. The wider Asian region appears to be

seeing the initial benefits of the recent pick-up in the global economy.

The sensitivity to the US and Chinese economies is well documented,

but the acceleration in Japan and Europe are also positive factors.

Consensus growth forecasts for 2014 are generally higher than for 2013,

but are still generally being revised lower.

EM policy: The recent Fed decision to delay tapering may alleviate some of

the short term pressure on EM currencies, reducing the need to tighten

liquidity. However, this may prove temporary as the structural challenges

remain. Many countries in the EM world are entering their electoral cycles

with significant current account deficits at a time when the Fed is moving

towards less monetary policy accommodation (albeit delayed). Therefore, we

expect liquidity to generally tighten over the next 6-12 months.

Overall, the economic data is consistent with the ‘Transition to

Stronger Growth’ theme outlined in December last year. However, we

believe the picture is less positive for EM than it is for DM.

Europe manufacturing sector likely to strengthen Euro area industrial production vs. manufacturing PMI


China surprises positively, Japan struggles to meet expectations despite growth accelerating Economic surprises indices – China & Japan

Source: Citigroup, Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

Japanese companies accelerate investment spending Japan machinery orders excluding volatile orders (3mma)


China growth improves in past 2 months China industrial production vs. exports (%,y/y)


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Jan-05 Jul-06 Jan-08 Jul-09 Jan-11 Jul-12

%%

Industrial production Manufacturing PMI (RHS)

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13

Ind

ex

Ind

ex

China Japan

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

Jul-03 Jan-05 Jul-06 Jan-08 Jul-09 Jan-11 Jul-12

JPY

(b

n)

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan-05 Jul-06 Jan-08 Jul-09 Jan-11 Jul-12

%%

Export (y/y) Industrial production (y/y, RHS)


6

We remain Underweight G3 government bonds, but recognise 10-year

Treasury yields are not as stretched at current levels as before.

US HY remains our preferred sub-asset class. EM HY, including Asia,

offers rising value, but further underperformance may be in the offing.

We believe it may be too early to enter Asian local currency markets

despite sizeable FX weakness.

G3 sovereign bonds:

Treasury valuations are not as stretched today as they were when

US 10-year yields was at 1.6%. While yields have retreated from 3%

following the Fed’s decision to delay tapering, it is worth noting that 10-

year yields are now much closer to estimates of ‘fair value’ (albeit less

so today at 2.75% than at 2.95% before the Fed meeting). This does not

change our expectation that yields will likely trend higher long-term as

Fed policy eventually tightens, but it does argue that bonds are now a

better source of portfolio diversification than six months ago.

Short-term, we continue to expect US 10-year Treasury yields to

consolidate within a 2.4-3.0% range. We believe investors should use

this pullback in yields to consider shortening duration, if appropriate.

Corporate credit (USD):

EM HY, including Asia, offers increasing value, but relative

underperformance may extend further in the short term. Last month,

we pointed out that Asian HY now offers close to a 2% premium over

US HY. While this rising presence of long-term value suggests the

likelihood of stronger performance ahead, we remain mindful of

continued tail risks (for example, a significant default event) in many

Asian, and EM, markets. In Asia, for example, HY credit rating

downgrades continue to outpace credit upgrades. Credit quality across

the broader Emerging market universe continues to deteriorate. A short-

term bounce is likely following the Fed’s decision to delay tapering, but

long-term we would not be in a hurry to add to this asset class.

US HY remains the most attractive part of global corporate credit,

in our view. Lending conditions remain comfortable, the all-in yield

remains reasonably attractive and it stands to benefit most directly from

any delay in Fed tapering. Perhaps most importantly, better liquidity

conditions relative to EM HY mean investors are likely to be somewhat

better protected in case conditions take a turn for the worse.

Local currency bonds:

Downside risks have likely reduced for the broader universe for

now. Over the past few months, many Asian currencies have weakened

while bond yields have gone up, in some cases quite significantly. We

believe downside risks are far better contained from today’s starting

point, but we do not believe they have been eliminated.

Conclusion: Remain Overweight US HY. Continue to favour corporates

over sovereigns. Downside risks have likely reduced for Asian local

currency bonds, but we do not believe they have been eliminated. Stay

Underweight G3 sovereigns and use pullback in yields to shorten

duration.

Performance of Fixed income YTD* (USD)

* For the period 31 December 2012 to 19 September 2013

Source: Barclays Capital, JPMorgan, Bloomberg, Standard

Chartered. Indices are Barclays Capital US Agg, US High Yield,

Euro Agg, Pan-Euro High Yield, JPMorgan Asia Credit Index

Rise in US yields may temporarily pause following the delay in Fed tapering US Treasury 10-year yield (%)

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Value emerging in EM debt, but under-performance may have further to run yet JPMorgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Diversified HY blended spread (%)

Source: JPMorgan, Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

US HY likely to benefit from delay in Fed tapering BarCap US HY Spreads (bps)

Source: Barclays Capital, Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

-2.84

3.67

3.78

8.32

-3.45

-0.55

-6 -2 2 6 10

US IG

US High Yield

Europe IG

Europe High Yield

Asia IG

Asia High Yield

%

2.401

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

%

+285bp

+325bp

+263bp

+117bp

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13

EMBI Diversified HY Blended Spread

Median

+1 std dev

-1 std dev

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Sep-09Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11Mar-12 Sep-12Mar-13 Sep-13

BarCap US HY OAS

Median

+1 std dev (10y)

-1 std dev (10y)

Fixed Income – Underweight


7

Global equities remain our preferred asset class and Europe (OW) our

preferred market – both expected to generate strong absolute returns.

We are Overweight the US and Underweight Asia ex-Japan and other

EM.

The Fed’s decision not to taper is a near term positive for global

equities:

EM may outperform near term as tightening fears subside. We would

use such strength to continue switching into DM.

In DM, early cyclicals (Technology, parts of Financials and Consumer

Discretionary) are likely, in our opinion, to outperform.

With yields declining, income generation still remains a theme on the

near term.

Our preference for DM has worked year-to-date and, with our

increasingly constructive view on Europe, we maintain this bias.

We expect corporate margins to start stabilising and for earnings to start

improving further out. This, together with cheap valuations and an

accommodative central bank, is supportive to further upside in this

market.

The Fed announcement is likely to push global equities higher near

term. Over the next few months, we expect any correction to likely be

fairly modest and in the magnitude of up to 5%. Given this, and the fact

that we are entering a seasonally strong period (see chart on Page 1),

we would suggest underweight investors consider adding to equities.

Regional and Country allocations:

DM preferred over EM: We maintain our preference for DM, though in the

near term expect that those markets most sensitive to foreign fund flows may

rally on the FOMC decision not to taper. We look at the markets from the

standpoint of liquidity, valuation and economic momentum.

Liquidity: Our longer term preference for DM is in part due to our view

that Fed tapering has only been postponed and will impact EM liquidity

significantly. EM assets were the biggest beneficiary of fund flows and

easy monetary policy in the US, and when this is unwound, EM may be

more vulnerable.

Economic Momentum: While the macro outlook is improving in DM, the

reverse is increasingly the case for EM, with China’s growth outlook for

example still being revised down.

Valuations: While EM valuations are relatively cheap, earnings

continue to be revised down across most of EM. While we believe this

may start to stabilise, it may remain headwind in the medium term.

Europe (OW): We expect Europe to outperform

Improving GDP and earnings: While earnings growth is likely to be

subdued for the next few quarters, we expect a significant improvement

further out. The economy is expected to show modest improvement

which will drive the sales line. Margins are also likely to start to stabilise

and we expect earnings growth to average low double digit for the next

two years.

Performance of Equity markets YTD* (USD)

* For the period 31 December 2012 to 19 September 2013 Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered. Indices are MSCI World TR, MSCI Emerging Markets TR, MSCI USA TR, MSCI Europe TR USD, MSCI Asia ex-Japan TR USD, MSCI Japan TR USD

Equities are still attractive relative to bonds MSCI AC World equity yield minus US 10y government bond yields

Source: Datastream, Standard Chartered

Any retracement expected to be in the regionof 5%, close to key support levels MSCI AC world index


DM expected to continue outperforming on thelonger term YTD consensus EPS growth expectations*(indexed=100)

Source: MSCI, Datastream, Standard Chartered *MSCI World & MSCI Emerging markets 12m forward EPS estimates

24.17

2.36

17.83

22.39

-1.00

19.42

16.72

-8 -2 4 10 16 22 28

Japan

Asia ex-Japan

Europe

US

Emerging Markets

Developed Markets

Global equities

%

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Sep-88 Sep-92 Sep-96 Sep-00 Sep-04 Sep-08 Sep-12

%

MSCI AC World Earnings-Bond Yield Gap Average

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13

Inde

x

MSCI AC World Index 200 dma

5.53%

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13

Ind

exed

(100=

1Jan 1

3)

DM EM

Equity – Overweight


8

Reversion to mean: The market is trading below its 10yr median (on

P/E and P/B metrics) and we expect this to narrow, as the underlying

fundamentals improve. This is likely to add around 3% of total return.

High dividend yield: The European market continues to offer an

attractive yield of over 4%.

Many investors are concerned EUR weakness will undermine USD

returns. While we are moderately bearish on the EUR in the medium term,

we still expect a higher return for European equities even in USD terms. In

terms of periphery vs. core, we are agnostic and believe stock picking across

the various markets is still the best strategy.

US (OW): We still see further upside

The bull market is increasingly mature and returns are likely, in our

opinion, to be lower than Europe.

However, earnings growth is still expected to come in at high single

digits and may accelerate if economic growth is better than expected.

Japan (N): Looking for a breakout

With the market consolidating along key support, the likelihood of a

breakout is increasing. While looking for a move higher, we are

concerned it could falter unless the economy strengthens of the BoJ

takes further action.

Asia ex-Japan (UW):

With tighter monetary policy, a weaker growth outlook and continuing

downward earnings revisions, we remain Underweight.

We expect markets with high current account deficits to remain volatile.

That said, valuations are cheap and when liquidity and economic

conditions stabilise on a sustainable basis, the rally could be swift.

South Korea (OW): We have upgraded our outlook for the market on the

basis that a weaken yen is largely priced in, the housing market is improving

and exports have rebounded. The earnings outlook has also improved

recently. We had gone UW in July on the expectation that earnings

expectations would be cut significantly – they were and the UW worked in

August, but we missed the recent rebound in both the data and the market.

Hong Kong (N): We have downgraded Hong Kong, to reflect our preference

for South Korea. While we considered increasing our weight for China,

currently Neutral, we decided against it for the moment preferring to wait for

the 3rd plenary session to give further clarity on future policy.

Preferred themes:

High dividend & high quality: This has been reinforced by the Fed’s

decision not to taper QE. However, it is important to pay close attention

to the company’s ability to maintain and expand dividends over time,

especially with some areas of high dividend equities looking expensive.

‘Defensive & early cyclicals’: This theme is particularly relevant to the

US and EU. We consider the US to be in the early recovery phase,

which usually sees Consumer Discretionary (CD), Financials and

Technology sectors perform best. We expect the US Technology sector

to outperform over the next 12m.

Conclusion: We continue to prefer equities to bonds and would

suggest underweight investors consider averaging into equities, with a

focus on Developed markets.

Regional/country allocations Asian country allocations should be seen in thecontext of the overall Asia ex-Japan UW

Source: Standard Chartered

EU corporate margins expected to stabilise Europe operating margin (%)

Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, Standard Chartered * MSCI EU trailing operating margin

Japan equities trading just above key support TPX index

Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, Standard Chartered * MSCI EU trailing operating margin

South Korea attractively valued 12m Forward P/B ratio of MSCI Korea

Source: MSCI, Datastream, Standard Chartered

Region/Country ViewUS OWEurope OWJapan NOther EM UWAsia ex-Japan UW

Malaysia OW

South Korea OW

Rest of Asia ex-Japan N

Indonesia UW

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

Sep-03 Mar-05 Sep-06 Mar-08 Sep-09 Mar-11 Sep-12

%

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13

Ind

ex

TPX Index 200 dma 100 dma 50 dma

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12

12m

Fo

rward

P/B

x

MSCI KOREA 1.067 P/Bx Median +- 1SD


9

We remain Underweight commodities. Signs of stabilisation in

Emerging markets are not sufficient, on their own, to help begin

running down still-sizeable inventories in many industrial metals. The

Fed’s decision, meanwhile, may help keep gold range-bound in the

short-term, but it remains in a long-term downtrend, in our opinion.

We remain Underweight gold. Prices may remain relatively range-bound in

the short term as a relatively dovish Fed coincides with temporarily softer

Treasury yields and a lack of US Dollar strength. Our bias, however, remains

to the downside.

Longer term, we maintain our Underweight and bearish view on gold:

The inflation-adjusted price of gold remains very high, inconsistent with

the low level of US inflation

Rising equity returns and bond yields over the longer term will likely

continue to raise the opportunity cost of holding gold

Geopolitical concerns have, thus far, provided little support

Long-term US Dollar strength also works against the metal

We remain Neutral on industrial metals. The rebound in recent Chinese

economic data is a near-term positive for industrial metals, especially

considering how much prices have already fallen. However, still-high

inventory levels mean any turn in demand will likely take time to feed through

into the price.

We remain Overweight oil and expect prices to remain largely range-bound

in the short term. According to IEA data, demand and supply are largely

balanced for the time being. Both trend growth in Emerging markets and

OPEC production have been stable. Falling US crude oil inventories are a

positive factor.

Geopolitical risks, however, have likely been overstated in the short term.

Syria-related risks, in particular, are unlikely to have a sustained impact on

oil prices because any conflict does not directly affect either the production

or transportation of oil.

We remain Neutral agricultural commodities. Improved weather

conditions relative to last year have raised expectations of a reasonable

harvest for key grains, placing downward pressure on prices. However, the

most recent US Department of Agriculture report for August reported a

smaller harvest yield than initially expected, a bullish outcome for prices. We

maintain a downward bias for agricultural prices in the short term due to the

upcoming harvest, but remain neutral long-term.

Conclusion: A gradual global recovery is moderately positive for global

commodity prices, but the lack of strong demand, still-high inventories

in selective metals and the lack of a convincing Chinese growth

rebound work against commodities for now. Gold prices, in particular,

may be range-bound in the short-term, but are likely to face further

weakness beyond that, in our view. We remain Underweight

commodities.

Delay in Fed tapering likely to result in gold remaining range-bound in the short term Gold prices vs. Fed total assets


Oil demand and supply largely balanced Crude oil demand and supply (Million barrels)


Global copper inventories remain very high LME and Shanghai copper inventories (mt)


500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Nov-05 May-07 Nov-08 May-10 Nov-11 May-13

US

D

US

D m

ns

Fed size of balance sheet Gold (RHS)

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Dec-93 Dec-96 Dec-99 Dec-02 Dec-05 Dec-08 Dec-11

mln

s o

f b

arr

els

pe

r d

ay

IEA Crude oil demand IEA Crude oil supply

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

Oct-06 Dec-07 Feb-09 Apr-10 Jun-11 Aug-12

Mn to

ns

LME Copper Shanghai Copper

Commodity – Underweight


10

We remain Overweight Alternative Strategies, based on our view that

the asset class offers exposure to our preferred asset classes, but with

the possibility of lower volatility. A diversified approach offers

attractive exposure to the asset class, but given our strong preference

for equities, we favour equity long/short as an alternative way of

gaining equity exposure.

Diversified exposure to Alternative strategies remains attractive, in our

view. A basket of alternative strategies offers the potential of a lower level of

volatility (relative to equities) and somewhat limited sensitivity to rising

interest rates. We view both these characteristics as attractive in an

environment where interest rates may continue trending higher long term

and the outlook for some regional equity markets remains uncertain.

We see equity long/short strategies as attractive for investors

uncomfortable with accepting the volatility associated with long-only

exposure. These strategies can be interesting for investors wanting to raise

equity exposure to benefit from what we view to be an attractive long-term

trend, but are uncomfortable with the inescapable volatility associated with a

long-only position.

Conclusion: Maintain Alternative Strategies Overweight. Favour

diversified exposure and equity long-short strategies both as portfolio

diversifiers and for lower volatility relative to long-only equities.

USD – We are moderately bullish on the USD in the medium term

We remain moderately bullish on the USD. The delay in Fed tapering may

lead to an extension of recent weakness in the short term, but this is likely to

be temporary as long as the US economy and the Fed do not change

direction. Indeed, the Dollar Index is already close to the bottom of its recent

(since March) range, suggesting a rebound in Q4 may be likely. Long term,

eventual Fed tapering and rising yields are likely to ultimately prove

supportive for the USD, in our view.

EUR – We are moderately bearish in the medium term

Policymakers appear to have been relatively unsuccessful thus far in

signalling lower interest rates for longer in Europe than in the US, something

that has spilled over into EUR strength. However, the currency appears to be

approaching the top of its recent range, suggesting much of this may now be

in the price. Germany’s general election outcome later this month is key.

GBP – We are medium-term bearish

The Bank of England’s forward guidance appears to have done little to

contain recent GBP strength. However, we continue to believe further

aggressive monetary stimulus will likely be needed to bring the

unemployment rate lower. Relatively higher levels of inflation remain the key

risk that may potentially delay any further Bank of England easing.

JPY – We are medium-term bearish

The prospect of a consumption tax hike is now likely key to the JPY outlook.

Historically, similar tax rises have triggered weakness in growth. In today’s

Performance of Alternative Strategies YTD* (USD)

* For the period 31 December 2012 to 19 September 2013

Source: HFRX, Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

HFRX global hedge, HFRX equity hedge, HFRX event driven,

HFRX relative value, HFRX macro/CTA

Delayed Fed tapering is temporarily negative for the US Dollar DXY Index


-2.02

1.84

4.58

7.25

10.71

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Macro CTAs

Relative Value

Composite

Equity Long/Short

Event Driven

%

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

Inde

x

Fed expands QE1 program

Bernanke hints at QE2

program

Bernanke hints at QE3

program

QE1 purchases completed

QE2 purchases completed

USD FED minutes hint at end of QE3

USDstrengthens

USD weakens

Foreign Exchange

Alternative Strategies – Overweight

’Medium term’ refers to a 6-12 month horizon


11

context, this suggests the Bank of Japan is likely to consider further

quantitative easing measures, which should be bearish for the JPY. This

may involve a period of temporary JPY strength preceding any such action,

but we expect the longer-term trend to be to JPY weakness.

AUD – We are medium-term bearish

We remain bearish on AUD given the likelihood of further rate cuts by the

Reserve Bank of Australia and continued softness in many commodity

prices. However, we do believe the recent rebound could temporarily extend

in the short term level. Net positions still remain very short despite the

rebound thus far, and the Fed’s decision to delay tapering is likely to cause

this rebound to extend a little further. We emphasise that we expect this

rebound to be temporary – it has been led to a large extent by market

positioning, but the longer-term fundamental factors continue to argue for a

weaker currency. We, therefore, see this rebound as an opportunity to

reduce exposure.

We continue to believe the NZD is likely to outperform the AUD due to

diverging central bank policy directions.

CNY – We are medium-term neutral

We believe Chinese authorities are likely to maintain a stable Renminbi

market in the midst of ongoing policy reforms and development of the

offshore Renminbi market. It remains our preferred regional currency.

SGD – We are medium-term neutral

We believe the SGD is likely to offer some stability relative to the region,

offering a lower beta exposure to Asia ex-Japan currencies. The next

monetary policy decision is likely to be announced in October.

We are medium-term bearish on other Asia ex-Japan currencies

Asia ex-Japan currencies are likely to temporarily rebound in the short term

following the Fed’s decision to delay tapering, especially current account

deficit currencies that have been under the most pressure recently. However,

unless Fed policy direction changes outright, this will likely be only a

temporary reprieve for these currencies. Ultimately, policymakers will need to

address external imbalances or risk facing renewed currency weakness once

Fed tapering expectations re-appear. We remain bearish.

Conclusion: We remain medium-term bullish on the USD and bearish

on AUD and Asian currencies. The delay in Fed tapering may lead to a

temporary rebound in AUD and Asian currencies, but they are likely to

face renewed pressure once tapering expectations re-appear. We would

use the current rebound to reallocate towards the USD.

The Fed’s decision to push back tapering may extend the validity of our

B.R.I.D.G.E. investment framework, including the focus on global

equities and the continued search for yield. It may also lead to the short

term outperformance of EM asset classes, which were badly hit by

tapering concerns. However, we believe that this is likely to prove

temporary and as such retain our preference for Developed market

equities, particularly Europe.

YTD, USD has strengthened against EM currencies and range-bound against majors DXY index vs. ADXY index (100=Jan2013)


Asian current account balances still pose downside risk to regional currencies ADXY index vs. Current account % of GDP – Weighted according to components of the ADXY Index


98

100

102

104

106

108

Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13

Ind

exed

(100=

Jan2013)

DXY Index ADXY Index (Inv)

USDweakens

USDstrengthens

95

100

105

110

115

120

2

3

4

5

6

7

Oct-02 Feb-04 Jun-05 Oct-06 Feb-08 Jun-09 Oct-10 Feb-12 Jun-13

Ind

ex

% o

f G

DP

Current Account % of GDP - ADXY weighted ADXY Index (RHS)

Conclusion


12

Asset Allocation Summary

Source: Standard Chartered

All figures are in percentages Currency : USD

Summary View vs. SAA Conservative ModerateModerately Aggressive

Aggressive

Cash UW 21 0 0 0

Fixed Income UW 35 35 17 4

Equity OW 27 43 61 86

Commodities UW 5 9 9 4

Alternatives OW 12 13 13 6

Asset Class Region View vs. SAA Conservative ModerateModerately Aggressive

Aggressive

Cash & Cash Equivalents USD Cash UW 21 0 0 0

IG Developed World UW 24 15 0 0

IG Emerging World N 4 9 3 0

HY Developed World OW 2 6 6 2

HY Emerging World N 5 5 8 2

North America OW 8 12 17 23

Europe OW 9 13 18 26

Japan N 0 2 2 3

Asia ex-Japan UW 8 13 20 27

Other EM UW 2 3 4 7

Commodities Commodities UW 5 9 9 4

Hedge FoF/CTAs OW 12 13 13 6

Emerging Market Equity

Tactical Asset Allocation - October 2013 (12M)

Investment Grade

High Yield

Developed Market Equity


13

Economic & Market Calendar

20 September 2013 Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

Next Week: September 23 - September 27 This Week: September 16 - September 20

Event Period Expected Prior Event Period Actual Prior

MO

N

TA Unemployment Rate Aug 4.2% 4.2% EC Labour Costs YoY 2Q 0.9% 1.7%

CH HSBC/Markit Flash Mfg PMI Sep 50.8 50.1 EC CPI YoY Aug F 1.3% 1.3%

SI CPI YoY Aug 2.1% 1.9% US Empire Manufacturing Sep 9.0 8.24

HK CPI Composite YoY Aug 4.4% 6.9% US Capacity Utilization Aug 77.9% 77.6%

EC PMI Manufacturing Sep A -- 51.4 US Manufacturing (SIC) Production Aug 0.7% -0.4%

EC PMI Services Sep A -- 50.7 NZ Westpac Consumer Confidence 3Q 115.4 116.6

EC PMI Composite Sep A -- 51.5 IN Wholesale Prices YoY Aug 6% 5.8%

US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Aug -- -15.0%

TU

E

GE IFO Business Climate Sep -- 107.5 UK CPI YoY Aug 2.7% 2.8%

GE IFO Current Assessment Sep -- 112.0 EC ZEW Survey Expectations Sep 58.6 44.0

GE IFO Expectations Sep -- 103.3 GE ZEW Survey Current Situation Sep 30.6 18.3

US S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY Jul 12.6% 12.1% GE ZEW Survey Expectations Sep 49.6 42.0

US Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Sep -- 14.0 US CPI YoY Aug 1.5% 2.0%

US Consumer Confidence Index Sep 80.4 81.5 US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Aug 1.8% 1.7%

US NAHB Housing Market Index Sep 58.0 58.0

SI Electronic Exports YoY Aug -9.2% -11.1%

SI Non-oil Domestic Exports YoY Aug -6.2% -1.9%

AU RBA Policy Meeting

HK Unemployment Rate SA Aug 3.3% 3.3%

WE

D

JN Machine Tool Orders YoY Aug F -- -1.8% UK Bank of England Minutes

TA Export Orders YoY Aug 1.5% 0.5% US MBA Mortgage Applications Sep-13 11.2% -13.5%

GE GfK Consumer Confidence Oct -- 6.90 US Housing Starts Aug 891K 883K

US MBA Mortgage Applications Sep-13 -- 11.2% AU Conference Board Leading Index Jul 0.3% -1.1%

US Durable Goods Orders Aug 0.10% -7.4% MA CPI YoY Aug 1.9% 2.0%

US Durables Ex Transportation Aug 1.0% -0.8% CH Foreign Direct Investment YoY Aug 10.0% 24.1%

US Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Aug 1.2% -4.0%

US Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Aug -- -1.7%

US New Home Sales Aug 425K 394K

TH

UR

SK Consumer Confidence Sep -- 105.0 US FOMC Rate Decision Sep-13 0.25% 0.25%

SI Industrial Production YoY Aug 5.9% 2.7% JN Leading Index CI Jul F 107.9 107.8

TA Industrial Production YoY Aug 2.3% 2.1% US Initial Jobless Claims Sep-13 -- 309K

HK Exports YoY Aug 3.5% 10.6% US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Sep 10.0 9.3

HK Imports YoY Aug 3.8% 8.3% US Existing Home Sales Aug 5.26M 5.39M

TA CBC Benchmark Interest Rate Sep-13 1.9% 1.88% NZ GDP YoY 2Q 2.5% 2.7%

UK GDP YoY 2Q F -- 1.5% HK Composite Interest Rate Aug 0.32% 0.32%

US Initial Jobless Claims Sep-13 -- --

US Pending Home Sales YoY Aug -- 8.6%

US Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Sep -- 8.0

FR

I

JN Natl CPI YoY Aug -- 0.7% CA CPI YoY Aug 1.3%

CH Industrial Profits YTD YoY Aug -- 11.1% IN RBI Cash Reserve Ratio Sep-13 -- 4.0%

TH Mfg Production Index ISIC NSA YoY Aug -- -4.5 IN RBI Repurchase Rate Sep-13 -- 7.3%

EC Economic Confidence Sep -- 95.2 IN RBI Reverse Repo Rate Sep-13 -- 6.3%

EC Industrial Confidence Sep -- -7.9

EC Consumer Confidence Sep F -- --

EC Services Confidence Sep -- -5.30

US PCE Core YoY Aug 1.2% 1.2%

US Univ. of Michigan Confidence Sep F 78.0 76.8

Previous data are for the preceding period unless otherw ise indicated Previous data are for the preceding period unless otherw ise indicated

Data are % change on preivous period unless otherw ise indicated Data are % change on preivous period unless otherw ise indicated

P - preliminary data, F - f inal data, sa - seasonally adjusted P - preliminary data, F - f inal data, sa - seasonally adjusted

YoY - year on year, MoM - month-on-month YoY - year on year, MoM - month-on-month


14

Disclosure Appendix

This document is not research material and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This document does not necessarily represent the views of every function within the Standard Chartered Bank, particularly those of the Global Research function. Standard Chartered Bank is incorporated in England with limited liability by Royal Charter 1853 Reference Number ZC18. The Principal Office of the Company is situated in England at 1 Basinghall Avenue, London, EC2V 5DD Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. In Dubai International Financial Centre (“DIFC”), the attached material is circulated by Standard Chartered Bank DIFC on behalf of the product and/or Issuer. Standard Chartered Bank DIFC is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) and is authorised to provide financial products and services to persons who meet the qualifying criteria of a Professional Client under the DFSA rules. The protection and compensation rights that may generally be available to retail customers in the DIFC or other jurisdictions will not be afforded to Professional Clients in the DIFC. Banking activities may be carried out internationally by different Standard Chartered Bank branches, subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively “SCB”) according to local regulatory requirements. With respect to any jurisdiction in which there is a SCB entity, this document is distributed in such jurisdiction by, and is attributable to, such local SCB entity. Recipients in any jurisdiction should contact the local SCB entity in relation to any matters arising from, or in connection with, this document. Not all products and services are provided by all SCB entities. This document is being distributed for general information only and it does not constitute an offer, recommendation, solicitation to enter into any transaction or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy, in relation to any securities or other financial instruments. This document is for general evaluation only, it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, particular needs of any particular person or class of persons and it has not been prepared for any particular person or class of persons. Opinions, projections and estimates are solely those of SCB at the date of this document and subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results and no representation or warranty is made regarding future performance. Any forecast contained herein as to likely future movements in rates or prices or likely future events or occurrences constitutes an opinion only and is not indicative of actual future movements in rates or prices or actual future events or occurrences (as the case may be). This document has not and will not be registered as a prospectus in any jurisdiction and it is not authorised by any regulatory authority under any regulations. SCB makes no representation or warranty of any kind, express, implied or statutory regarding, but not limited to, the accuracy of this document or the completeness of any information contained or referred to in this document. This document is distributed on the express understanding that, whilst the information in it is believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by us. 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Accordingly, SCB, its affiliates and/or subsidiaries may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this document. This document must not be forwarded or otherwise made available to any other person without the express written consent of SCB. Copyright: Standard Chartered Bank 2013. Copyright in all materials, text, articles and information contained herein is the property of, and may only be reproduced with permission of an authorised signatory of, Standard Chartered Bank. Copyright in materials created by third parties and the rights under copyright of such parties are hereby acknowledged. 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Documents

GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK...Global Market Outlook 3 The Fed’s decision not to ‘taper’ quantitative easing (QE) may extend the validity of our B.R.I.D.G.E. investment framework. In