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Global New Vehicle Fuel Economy Update First Results!
Transforming Transportation 2013!
! Presented at Transforming Transportation 2013!
! Alex Körner, François Cuenot!! International Energy Agency (IEA)!
© OECD/IEA 2012
Global New Vehicle Fuel Economy Update First Results
Alex Körner, François Cuenot
Transforming Transportation, 18th January 2013
© OECD/IEA 2012
Content
n Introduction n Methodology n FE/CO2 Results by country n FE/CO2 Global results n 2010-2011 OECD deep-dive n New Fleet key technical characteristics
evolution n Conclusions
© OECD/IEA 2012
Introduction
n Update of the 2011 “International comparison of light-duty vehicle fuel economy and related characteristics” IEA-authored GFEI working papers: l Adding 2010 and 2011 l Adding Korea and Canada to cover G19 (KSA
missing) n sponsored by UNEP-raised GEF SSFs and EU
commission grants. n New report to be released in March
© OECD/IEA 2012
Methodology
n New vehicle registrations data from Polk l By brand, model, powertrain, fuel, power,…but: l Vehicle segment/class missing l Empty weight is missing l CO2/FE missing:
n Manual input based on model sales sampling l Satisfactory representativity when CO2/FE >75% of
sales n Making number match official numbers when
available
© OECD/IEA 2012
Vehicle Segments
© OECD/IEA 2012
Data sources for FE / CO2 information n No test cycle conversion Country Publication name
DoE / EPA Fuel Economy ratingshttp://www.fueleconomy.gov/ 轻型汽车燃料消耗量通告 通告日期http://gzly.miit.gov.cn:8090/datainfo/miit/babs2.jspCar Fuel Data Booklethttp://www.vcacarfueldata.org.uk/Consommation conventionnelles de carburant et émissions de gaz carboniquehttp://www2.ademe.fr/servlet/getDoc?cid=96&m=3&id=52820&p1=00&p2=12&ref=17597Green Vehicle Guide Factsheetshttp://www.greenvehicleguide.gov.au自動車燃費一覧
http://www.mlit.go.jp/jidosha/jidosha_mn10_000001.htmlIndicadores de Eficiencia Energética y Emisiones Vehiculareshttp://www.ecovehiculos.gob.mx/Automobil Revue cataloguehttp://katalog.automobilrevue.ch/소비자 체감에 부합하는 새로운 연비표시 방법 확정http://bpms.kemco.or.kr/transport_2012/main/main.aspx
Mexico
Swiss
Korea
US
China
UK
France
Australia
Japan
© OECD/IEA 2012
gCO2 emissions per km for new PLDVs
© OECD/IEA 2012
Fuel consumption per 100 km for new PLDVs - OECD
© OECD/IEA 2012
OECD Average emissions (gCO2/km)
Emission reduc9on rate
Market growth
2010 2011 2010 -‐ 2011 2010 -‐ 2011 France 130.5 127.7 -‐2.1% -‐2.1% Italy 132.7 129.5 -‐2.4% -‐11.6% EU 27 140.3 135.7 -‐3.3% -‐9.6% Japan 140.5 134.4 -‐4.3% -‐16.4% Turkey 145.2 139.3 -‐4.1% 16.4% UK 144.2 138.1 -‐4.2% -‐4.4% Germany 151.2 145.6 -‐3.7% 8.8% Chile 163.7 160.8 -‐1.8% 22.4% South Korea 171.3 171.5 0.1% 0.6% Mexico 186.2 180.8 -‐2.9% 17.4% Canada 190.5 189.6 -‐0.4% 1.4% USA 194.7 192.8 -‐0.9% 9.9% Australia 207.9 204.2 -‐1.8% -‐2.6%
OECD 165.1 164.3 -‐0.5% -‐1.8%
2010-11 progress deep dive
© OECD/IEA 2012
Fuel consumption per 100 km for new PLDVs – Non-OECD
© OECD/IEA 2012
FE progress tracking vs. GFEI target
n New vehicles in OECD almost achieve the GFEI annual fuel
consumption reduction target n New vehicles in Non-OECD show a slight annual fuel
consumption reduction over the last three years n The global reduction rate is still far off the target due to a shift
in market from OECD to non-OECD n Each year lost makes the target harder to be reached
2005 2008 2010 2011 2030Annual change
2005-‐2008
Annual change
2008-‐2011
Annual change
2005-‐2011
Required annual change 2005-‐2030
Required annual change 2012-‐2030
OECD average 8.1 7.6 7.0 7.0 -‐2.3% -‐2.6% -‐2.5%Non-‐OECD average 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.3 0.4% -‐0.9% -‐0.3%Global average 8.0 7.6 7.2 7.1 -‐1.8% -‐1.9% -‐1.9%GFEI target 8.0 4.0 -‐2.7% -‐3%
© OECD/IEA 2012
PLDVs by segment
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005
2008
2010
2011
2005
2008
2010
2011
2005
2008
2010
2011
OECD Non-‐OECD World
Pick-‐up/SUV
Van/LCV
Small SUV/Van/LCV
F
E
D
C
B
A
© OECD/IEA 2012
FE by vehicle size
n Shift towards bigger vehicle prevented FE improvement in non-OECD
© OECD/IEA 2012
PLDVs by displacement
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005
2008
2010
2011
2005
2008
2010
2011
2005
2008
2010
2011
OECD Non-‐OECD World
>3200
2801-‐3200
2401-‐2800
2001-‐2400
1601-‐2000
1201-‐1600
801-‐1200
<800
unknown
© OECD/IEA 2012
PLDVs by power
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005
2008
2010
2011
2005
2008
2010
2011
2005
2008
2010
2011
OECD Non-‐OECD World
>200
151-‐200
101-‐150
71-‐100
51-‐70
<50
unknown
© OECD/IEA 2012
LCV influence – country dependant
© OECD/IEA 2012
Future updates
n Engage countries/OEMs in providing their official registrations data for this work l Partially worked in Chile with the ICCT/CmCh
baseline report l Links with Renault and the AAA (data provider for
OICA) n Parametric analysis to be done by KG Duleep
using FIA Foundation funding n Cross-database access sharing with all GFEI
partners
© OECD/IEA 2012
Conclusions n Improvement rate has accelerated in OECD
markets, and is almost matching the GFEI target rate l Policies (and GFEI actions) fruitful
n In non-OECD, situation does not show much progress l More policies (and more GFEI actions) are needed,
especially to limit vehicle size shift. n Lot of potential analysis from the database
l More resources would be welcome
Transforming Transportation 2013!
! Co-organized by EMBARQ and The World Bank!! More information at:!! EMBARQ.org!! worldbank.org/transport!
! Questions? Comments? Contact us at [email protected]!! Follow us on Twitter: @EMBARQnetwork!
Transforming Transportation 2013!
