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Golar Golar LNG Ltd. LNG Ltd. Presentation Carnegie November 26 th - 2001 The Floating The Floating Gas Pipeline” Gas Pipeline” The Company The Company and and the the Market Market

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Page 1: Golar LNG Ltd. - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866930/105745.pdf · Golar LNG Ltd. Presentation Carnegie ... * Will replace vessel to be redelivered to Nigeria LNG Source:Platou;

GolarGolar LNG Ltd.LNG Ltd.

PresentationCarnegie

November 26th - 2001

””The FloatingThe Floating Gas Pipeline”Gas Pipeline”The CompanyThe Company and and thethe MarketMarket

Page 2: Golar LNG Ltd. - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866930/105745.pdf · Golar LNG Ltd. Presentation Carnegie ... * Will replace vessel to be redelivered to Nigeria LNG Source:Platou;

Current Gas Prices November 2001

Area Reference Price MMBtuEurope IPE – Transco Balancing $ 3,50USA Henry Hub $ 2,73Asia Japan LNG Import Average $ 4,50Africa Nigeria flares daily as much as France uses.

Page 3: Golar LNG Ltd. - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866930/105745.pdf · Golar LNG Ltd. Presentation Carnegie ... * Will replace vessel to be redelivered to Nigeria LNG Source:Platou;

Golars Market Assumptions

• The Global arbitrage, the in-efficiencies in the logistical system, and the high growth in gas demand is likely to create healthy return for LNG investments in the next 5 –10 year period.

• Future deregulation, change in corporate strategies, build up of sufficient liquefaction, regas and shipping capacity and the development of a spot market will, over time (10 years +), equalize these opportunities and push the return in favour of the upstream developers.

Page 4: Golar LNG Ltd. - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866930/105745.pdf · Golar LNG Ltd. Presentation Carnegie ... * Will replace vessel to be redelivered to Nigeria LNG Source:Platou;

Global LNG Trade Flows

Japan

Taiwan

Nigeria

Trinidad & Tobago

Alaska

Algeria

U.A.E./Qatar/Oman

Australia

Indonesia/Malaysia/Brunei

SouthKoreaEverett

Lake Charles

India

Atlantic Basin

33 vessels

Asia/Pacific Basin

88 vessels

Import Terminal

Export Terminal

Page 5: Golar LNG Ltd. - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866930/105745.pdf · Golar LNG Ltd. Presentation Carnegie ... * Will replace vessel to be redelivered to Nigeria LNG Source:Platou;

Current Market Situation November 2001

• Excess non contracted liquefaction capacity from almost all producers.

• Excess terminal capacity.• Shipping capacity bottle neck – Only two Enron ships

undedicated for trading in 2002. • Charter rates – Last done :

– 20 years - USD 65 – 70.000 per day - Modern vessel– 10 years – USD 60.000 per day - Old vessel– Spot rates : USD 50 – 70.000 per day - Old vessel

• Ordering stopped up. New building prices indicated lower.• Several tenders outstanding. More to come.

Page 6: Golar LNG Ltd. - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866930/105745.pdf · Golar LNG Ltd. Presentation Carnegie ... * Will replace vessel to be redelivered to Nigeria LNG Source:Platou;

Forward Henry Hub Prices

0,000,501,001,502,002,503,003,504,004,50

DEC 01FEB 02APR 02JUN 02AUG 02OCT 02DEC 02FEB 03APR 03JUN 03AUG 03OCT 03DEC 03FEB 04APR 04

USD

/MM

Btu

Page 7: Golar LNG Ltd. - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866930/105745.pdf · Golar LNG Ltd. Presentation Carnegie ... * Will replace vessel to be redelivered to Nigeria LNG Source:Platou;

LNG Shipments –High Growth Shipping

306

352

413448

1998 1999 2000 2001E

19 % CAGR

3,1103,0102,8302,710Average RT distances(nautical miles)

1051009183Traded volume(Mta)

Page 8: Golar LNG Ltd. - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866930/105745.pdf · Golar LNG Ltd. Presentation Carnegie ... * Will replace vessel to be redelivered to Nigeria LNG Source:Platou;

8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Power generation

4,8

2,4

2,5

Weighted average

3.1

Industrial and commercial

Domestic

By segmentAverage growth rate (2000–10)Percent

Year 2000 consumption (bcm)

US (1.7%; 634 bcm)

Portugal

1bcm p.a.

2bcm p.a.5bcm p.a.

Current LNG users

Likely LNG users�

Spain

Belgium/Luxembourg

FrancePoland Germany

Italy

UK

Netherlands

Taiwan

ChinaIndia

IranSaudi Arabia

South Korea

Canada

JapanUAE

EgyptKuwait

MalaysiaIndonesia

ThailandPakistanAustralia

Qatar

BangladeshSingapore

JordanIraq

Mexico

Gas Demand growth expectations

Page 9: Golar LNG Ltd. - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866930/105745.pdf · Golar LNG Ltd. Presentation Carnegie ... * Will replace vessel to be redelivered to Nigeria LNG Source:Platou;

122,9

18,5

38,4

179,8

205,1

25,3

Liquefaction Projects 2000 – 06

TrinidadNigeriaMalaysia Tiga

2+33

1,2

7.13.38.1

200220032003

Train no. Capacity

OmanTrinidadNigeriaQatar (Ras Gas)Qatar (Ras Gas)Qatar** Indonesia (Bontang I) Australia (NWS 4)Egypt***

34

4+534

1+2941

3.55.18.15.05.00.73.24.53.3

200520032005200420052006200520042005

Capacity

Indonesia (Tangguh)Venezuel a (North Paria)Australia (Darwin/NWS 5) AngolaYemenNigeria (T6)

3.04.04.24.06.14.0

200520052005200520042006

Capacity

Spain, U.S.Spain, PortugalJapan, India

Buyers*

India, ChinaSpain, U.S.Atlantic BasinIndiaItaly, IndiaAsia, Europe China, IndiaJapan, ChinaAtlantic basin

Buyers *

Japan, KoreaU.S., Caribbean, BrazilU.S. West Coast, ChinaU.S., EuropeIndia,JapanAtlantic basin

Expansion Train no.

Buyers* Greenfield

Ships committedShips needed

Ships committedShips needed

Ships committed

Ships needed

636

636

12110–012

349

6

–242

Existing capacity(as of 15 April 2001)

Under construction

“Planned” Total high probability capacity in 2005

“Prospective”

Total maximum potential in 2005

* Contracted buyers or announced buyers** Qatargas debottleneck

*** Several projects planned; only one is assumed to proceed (greenfield, not an expansion)Source: Team analysis

ESTIMATE

Page 10: Golar LNG Ltd. - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866930/105745.pdf · Golar LNG Ltd. Presentation Carnegie ... * Will replace vessel to be redelivered to Nigeria LNG Source:Platou;

278,2

40,5

26,4

345,1

373,8

28,7

Regas Capacity 2000 - 06

Existing

Under construction

“Planned”

Total high probability capacity in 2005

“Prospective”

Total maximum potential in 2005

ESTIMATEEverett expansion, MACove Point, MDElba Island, CAAndres, Dominican Rep.Dabhol, IndiaChita Midorihama, JapanTong Young, KoreaSines, PortugalIzmir, Turkey

2.57.23.33.66.94.08.31.82.9

200220022002200320022002200220042002

Capacity Start year

Atlantic LNGAtlantic LNG, NLNGAtlantic LNG, NLNGAtlantic LNGOmanAsian/Middle East suppliersAsian suppliersNigeriaQatar, Algeria

LNG supplier*Terminal

Huelva expansion, SpainSuape, BrasilDahej, IndiaCochin, IndiaBilbao, SpainOffshore GBS, ItalyShenzhen**, ChinaCartagena expansion, SpainValencia, SpainJapan

2.81.55.03.42.14.03.00.83.60.2

2003200520042004200320052005200320052003

Capacity Start year

NLNG 3Nigeria, Angola, Trinidad, VenezuelaRasGas IIIRasGas IVAtlantic LNG 2, 3RasGas IVNWS 4, MLNG IIINLNG 3NLNGAsian supplies

LNG supplier *Terminal

Hackberry, LAUS West CoastFlorida via BahamasAltamira, MexicoRecife, BrazilP ipovav, IndiaKakinada, India

5.75.05.05.02.13.42.5

2004200520042005200320052005

Capacity Start year

Atlantic BasinAustraliaAtlantic BasinAtlantic Basin Nigeria, Angola, Trinidad, VenezuelaMalaysia, AustraliaMalaysia, Indonesia

LNG supplier *Terminal

* Contracted suppliers or announced suppliers** Shenzen is the port; also referred to as the Guangdong terminal

Source: GIIGNL, GTI LNG Sourcebook 2001, Team anal ysis

ESTIMATE

Page 11: Golar LNG Ltd. - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866930/105745.pdf · Golar LNG Ltd. Presentation Carnegie ... * Will replace vessel to be redelivered to Nigeria LNG Source:Platou;

5

6

4

3

2

3

3

1

2

2

1

5

1

3

1

1

1

40

1

1

1

7

Number of vessels

Source: Platou; Clarkson; shipping reports; press clippings

FIRM ORDERS AND OPTIONS

4 TC to El Paso, 1 TC to Enron

MLNG III

UC

2 to India

UC

2 TC to Cabot

Nigeria

T/C to Enagas, T/C to Union Fenosa

Trinidad

T/C to Petronet

T/C to Enagas and Union Fenosa

UC

To Japan

To Japan

Australia

UC

Owner Number of LNG vessels Comment

Exmar

MISC

Golar LNG

Shell

BP

Bergesen

Nigeria LNG

Naviera Tapas

BG

SCI/MOSK+

Knutsen OAS

AP Møller

Tokyo Electric

Tokyo Gas

NWS

Tanker Pacifica?

Other

Total

Firm contractedFirm speculative

Page 12: Golar LNG Ltd. - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866930/105745.pdf · Golar LNG Ltd. Presentation Carnegie ... * Will replace vessel to be redelivered to Nigeria LNG Source:Platou;

Newbuildings Delivery Schedule

6

11

15

8

1

5

1

2002 2003 2004 2005

FirmBG (2)MISC (2)Naviera Tapias (2)SCI/MOSK (1)NWS (1)Knutsen OAS (1)Tokyo Gas (1)Tokyo Electric (1)Shell (1)Lino Kaiun (1)BP (1)Elcano (1)

SpeculativeGolar (2)Exmar (1)Bergesen (1)

AP Møller (1)

FirmGolar LNG (1)Bergesen (2)Exmar (2)Shell (2)BP (2)MISC (1)Naviera Tapias (1)Nigeria LNG (1)

SpeculativeGolar (1)

FirmExmar (1)MISC (1)Nigeria LNG (2)Brunei Gas Carriers* (1)Greenfield Shipping (1)

FirmMISC (2)Exmar (2)Shell (1)SCI/MOSK (1)Knutsen OAS (1)Qatar Shipping (1)

SpeculativeTanker Paci fic (1)

6

12

20

9

* Will replace vessel to be redelivered to Nigeria LNG Source:Platou; Clarkson; Shipping reports; Press clippings

ESTIMATE

Firm contracted

Firm speculative

Page 13: Golar LNG Ltd. - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866930/105745.pdf · Golar LNG Ltd. Presentation Carnegie ... * Will replace vessel to be redelivered to Nigeria LNG Source:Platou;

6

18

38

47 47

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Supply / Demand

”Base case” (U.S. Terminal capacity utilized)

Building of economically viable terminal in US East 2004

7 bcm, not 2 bcm, imported into India and China

Less US trade – 50% of new capacity in US utilized

Sensitivity

US east terminal and 5 mt US west Coast terminal in 2006

Firm ships

PRELIMINARY

Source:Team analysis

2730

41

47 48

Page 14: Golar LNG Ltd. - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866930/105745.pdf · Golar LNG Ltd. Presentation Carnegie ... * Will replace vessel to be redelivered to Nigeria LNG Source:Platou;

Capacity Conclusion 2001 - 2005

• Liquefaction capacity increases from 123 MT to 180 MT.• Regas capacity increases from 278 MT to 345 MT.• The number of ships increase based on current orderbook

from 126 to 173.• One US West Coast terminal increases ship demand with 8

– 10 ships.

Page 15: Golar LNG Ltd. - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866930/105745.pdf · Golar LNG Ltd. Presentation Carnegie ... * Will replace vessel to be redelivered to Nigeria LNG Source:Platou;

Will a Spot Market Develop ?

• It has already happened –Evidence :– 50 % of US Cargoes in 2000 were spot sales.– 8 % of total LNG sold in 2000 were spot sales.– Distrigaz has rerouted LNG to US and

substituted with European Gas.– Increased price linkages Europe / USA– The major LNG players plan based on

increased spot trading.

Page 16: Golar LNG Ltd. - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866930/105745.pdf · Golar LNG Ltd. Presentation Carnegie ... * Will replace vessel to be redelivered to Nigeria LNG Source:Platou;

The Competitiveness of LNGIndicated Cost Numbers

Operation USD/MMBtu

Feed Gas 0.60Liquefaction Infrastructure 1.00Transportation 0.60Terminal 0.40Total 2.60

Page 17: Golar LNG Ltd. - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866930/105745.pdf · Golar LNG Ltd. Presentation Carnegie ... * Will replace vessel to be redelivered to Nigeria LNG Source:Platou;

The strength of the LNG market

• US Gas Prices have a floor price around USD 2,50/ MMBtu created by :– Cost curve structure of Gas production– Cost of Steam Coal equals USD 2 – 2.50/MMBtu gas.– Parity to Oil (0.183 )

• Short term prices can show high volatility due to limited storgage capacity and weather driven demand.

• US LNG Import covers only 1 % of US gas consumption.• LNG has large delivery flexibility.

Page 18: Golar LNG Ltd. - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866930/105745.pdf · Golar LNG Ltd. Presentation Carnegie ... * Will replace vessel to be redelivered to Nigeria LNG Source:Platou;

An economical calculation• Trade: Algeria – Lake Charles• FOB Price: 60 % of Henry Hub• Regas: USD 0.40 per MMBtu

110.0004.00

94.0003.50

74.0003.00

54.0002.50

34.0002.00

16.0001.50

T/C rate (USD/day)Henry Hub Price (USD/MMBtu)

Page 19: Golar LNG Ltd. - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866930/105745.pdf · Golar LNG Ltd. Presentation Carnegie ... * Will replace vessel to be redelivered to Nigeria LNG Source:Platou;

Golar LNG – The Company

Page 20: Golar LNG Ltd. - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866930/105745.pdf · Golar LNG Ltd. Presentation Carnegie ... * Will replace vessel to be redelivered to Nigeria LNG Source:Platou;

The Golar Strategy

1. Be a ship owner that charters out LNG tonnage for various periods to the market in general.

2. Be an LNG trader that buys LNG FOB from various sources either alone or with a partner, and sells gas to LNG customers all over the world. As part of the trading activity, Golar will consider investing in other parts of the LNG chain, like liquefaction or regasification capacity.

3. Be a LNG development / construction company that invests in or develops new concepts like floating regas or liquefaction units.

Page 21: Golar LNG Ltd. - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866930/105745.pdf · Golar LNG Ltd. Presentation Carnegie ... * Will replace vessel to be redelivered to Nigeria LNG Source:Platou;

Fleet list

Ship Ownership Built Capacity (m3) Charterer Golar Mazo 60 % 2000 138,000 CPC (BB) Golar Spirit 100 % 1981 129,013 Pertamina / KOGAS (BB) Khannur 100 % 1977 125,003 British Gas (TC) Gimi 100 % 1976 124,872 British Gas (TC) Hilli 100 % 1975 124,890 British Gas (TC)

Golar Freeze 100 % 1977 125,862 British Gas (TC) N/B #1 100 % 3/2003 138,000 British Gas (TC) N/B #2 100 % 10/2003 137,000 N/B #3 100 % 3/2004 138,000 N/B #4 100 % 7/2004 137,000 NGSCO #1 0 % (mgmt.) Abu Dhabi NGSCO #2 0 % (mgmt.) Abu Dhabi NGSCO #3 0 % (mgmt.) Abu Dhabi NGSCO #4 0 % (mgmt.) Abu Dhabi

Page 22: Golar LNG Ltd. - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866930/105745.pdf · Golar LNG Ltd. Presentation Carnegie ... * Will replace vessel to be redelivered to Nigeria LNG Source:Platou;

Fleet Employment2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Golar Mazo

Golar Spirit

Khannur

Gimi

Hilli

Golar Freeze

N/B #1

N/B #2

N/B #3

N/B #4

Firm Option

Page 23: Golar LNG Ltd. - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866930/105745.pdf · Golar LNG Ltd. Presentation Carnegie ... * Will replace vessel to be redelivered to Nigeria LNG Source:Platou;

Golar Freeze

• The ship is redelivered from BG in March 2003.• Feasibility study for conversion to floating regas

terminal signed with Merlin Offshore.• Based on 50 cargoes a year and USD 0.40/MMBtu

terminal fee, gross revenue is approximately USD 60 million.

• A Freeze terminal can be in operation in the end of 2003 – almost two years ahead of competition.

Page 24: Golar LNG Ltd. - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866930/105745.pdf · Golar LNG Ltd. Presentation Carnegie ... * Will replace vessel to be redelivered to Nigeria LNG Source:Platou;

LNG – an art of financing

• If a 100 % equity project gives 10 % direct yield – a re leverage of the project with 90 % leverage, 30 years flat repayment of the debt and current spot interest levels plus margin increases direct yield to approximately 45 %.

• UK Tax deals gives from 7 – 14 % in upfront cash value.

Page 25: Golar LNG Ltd. - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866930/105745.pdf · Golar LNG Ltd. Presentation Carnegie ... * Will replace vessel to be redelivered to Nigeria LNG Source:Platou;

Future Revenue

• All capacity sold for 2002.• Committed revenue 2002 approximately USD 127

million calculated based on net 60 % of Golar Mazo.

• Total forward committed revenue approximately USD 1.5 billion.

Page 26: Golar LNG Ltd. - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/866930/105745.pdf · Golar LNG Ltd. Presentation Carnegie ... * Will replace vessel to be redelivered to Nigeria LNG Source:Platou;

Management Focus November 2001

• Seek long term charter for at least one more ship.• Develop Golar Freeze floating terminal concept.• Consolidation / Pooling with other owners.• Optimise existing financing structure to include tax lease.

Arrange financing for New buildings.• Consider interest hedging for loans.• Establish partnership with non shipping LNG players.• Develop trading arm.• List Company in US.