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GolarGolar LNG Ltd.LNG Ltd.
PresentationCarnegie
November 26th - 2001
””The FloatingThe Floating Gas Pipeline”Gas Pipeline”The CompanyThe Company and and thethe MarketMarket
Current Gas Prices November 2001
Area Reference Price MMBtuEurope IPE – Transco Balancing $ 3,50USA Henry Hub $ 2,73Asia Japan LNG Import Average $ 4,50Africa Nigeria flares daily as much as France uses.
Golars Market Assumptions
• The Global arbitrage, the in-efficiencies in the logistical system, and the high growth in gas demand is likely to create healthy return for LNG investments in the next 5 –10 year period.
• Future deregulation, change in corporate strategies, build up of sufficient liquefaction, regas and shipping capacity and the development of a spot market will, over time (10 years +), equalize these opportunities and push the return in favour of the upstream developers.
Global LNG Trade Flows
Japan
Taiwan
Nigeria
Trinidad & Tobago
Alaska
Algeria
U.A.E./Qatar/Oman
Australia
Indonesia/Malaysia/Brunei
SouthKoreaEverett
Lake Charles
India
Atlantic Basin
33 vessels
Asia/Pacific Basin
88 vessels
Import Terminal
Export Terminal
Current Market Situation November 2001
• Excess non contracted liquefaction capacity from almost all producers.
• Excess terminal capacity.• Shipping capacity bottle neck – Only two Enron ships
undedicated for trading in 2002. • Charter rates – Last done :
– 20 years - USD 65 – 70.000 per day - Modern vessel– 10 years – USD 60.000 per day - Old vessel– Spot rates : USD 50 – 70.000 per day - Old vessel
• Ordering stopped up. New building prices indicated lower.• Several tenders outstanding. More to come.
Forward Henry Hub Prices
0,000,501,001,502,002,503,003,504,004,50
DEC 01FEB 02APR 02JUN 02AUG 02OCT 02DEC 02FEB 03APR 03JUN 03AUG 03OCT 03DEC 03FEB 04APR 04
USD
/MM
Btu
LNG Shipments –High Growth Shipping
306
352
413448
1998 1999 2000 2001E
19 % CAGR
3,1103,0102,8302,710Average RT distances(nautical miles)
1051009183Traded volume(Mta)
8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Power generation
4,8
2,4
2,5
Weighted average
3.1
Industrial and commercial
Domestic
By segmentAverage growth rate (2000–10)Percent
Year 2000 consumption (bcm)
US (1.7%; 634 bcm)
Portugal
1bcm p.a.
2bcm p.a.5bcm p.a.
Current LNG users
Likely LNG users�
Spain
Belgium/Luxembourg
FrancePoland Germany
Italy
UK
Netherlands
Taiwan
ChinaIndia
IranSaudi Arabia
South Korea
Canada
JapanUAE
EgyptKuwait
MalaysiaIndonesia
ThailandPakistanAustralia
Qatar
BangladeshSingapore
JordanIraq
Mexico
Gas Demand growth expectations
122,9
18,5
38,4
179,8
205,1
25,3
Liquefaction Projects 2000 – 06
TrinidadNigeriaMalaysia Tiga
2+33
1,2
7.13.38.1
200220032003
Train no. Capacity
OmanTrinidadNigeriaQatar (Ras Gas)Qatar (Ras Gas)Qatar** Indonesia (Bontang I) Australia (NWS 4)Egypt***
34
4+534
1+2941
3.55.18.15.05.00.73.24.53.3
200520032005200420052006200520042005
Capacity
Indonesia (Tangguh)Venezuel a (North Paria)Australia (Darwin/NWS 5) AngolaYemenNigeria (T6)
3.04.04.24.06.14.0
200520052005200520042006
Capacity
Spain, U.S.Spain, PortugalJapan, India
Buyers*
India, ChinaSpain, U.S.Atlantic BasinIndiaItaly, IndiaAsia, Europe China, IndiaJapan, ChinaAtlantic basin
Buyers *
Japan, KoreaU.S., Caribbean, BrazilU.S. West Coast, ChinaU.S., EuropeIndia,JapanAtlantic basin
Expansion Train no.
Buyers* Greenfield
Ships committedShips needed
Ships committedShips needed
Ships committed
Ships needed
636
636
12110–012
349
6
–242
Existing capacity(as of 15 April 2001)
Under construction
“Planned” Total high probability capacity in 2005
“Prospective”
Total maximum potential in 2005
* Contracted buyers or announced buyers** Qatargas debottleneck
*** Several projects planned; only one is assumed to proceed (greenfield, not an expansion)Source: Team analysis
ESTIMATE
278,2
40,5
26,4
345,1
373,8
28,7
Regas Capacity 2000 - 06
Existing
Under construction
“Planned”
Total high probability capacity in 2005
“Prospective”
Total maximum potential in 2005
ESTIMATEEverett expansion, MACove Point, MDElba Island, CAAndres, Dominican Rep.Dabhol, IndiaChita Midorihama, JapanTong Young, KoreaSines, PortugalIzmir, Turkey
2.57.23.33.66.94.08.31.82.9
200220022002200320022002200220042002
Capacity Start year
Atlantic LNGAtlantic LNG, NLNGAtlantic LNG, NLNGAtlantic LNGOmanAsian/Middle East suppliersAsian suppliersNigeriaQatar, Algeria
LNG supplier*Terminal
Huelva expansion, SpainSuape, BrasilDahej, IndiaCochin, IndiaBilbao, SpainOffshore GBS, ItalyShenzhen**, ChinaCartagena expansion, SpainValencia, SpainJapan
2.81.55.03.42.14.03.00.83.60.2
2003200520042004200320052005200320052003
Capacity Start year
NLNG 3Nigeria, Angola, Trinidad, VenezuelaRasGas IIIRasGas IVAtlantic LNG 2, 3RasGas IVNWS 4, MLNG IIINLNG 3NLNGAsian supplies
LNG supplier *Terminal
Hackberry, LAUS West CoastFlorida via BahamasAltamira, MexicoRecife, BrazilP ipovav, IndiaKakinada, India
5.75.05.05.02.13.42.5
2004200520042005200320052005
Capacity Start year
Atlantic BasinAustraliaAtlantic BasinAtlantic Basin Nigeria, Angola, Trinidad, VenezuelaMalaysia, AustraliaMalaysia, Indonesia
LNG supplier *Terminal
* Contracted suppliers or announced suppliers** Shenzen is the port; also referred to as the Guangdong terminal
Source: GIIGNL, GTI LNG Sourcebook 2001, Team anal ysis
ESTIMATE
5
6
4
3
2
3
3
1
2
2
1
5
1
3
1
1
1
40
1
1
1
7
Number of vessels
Source: Platou; Clarkson; shipping reports; press clippings
FIRM ORDERS AND OPTIONS
4 TC to El Paso, 1 TC to Enron
MLNG III
UC
2 to India
UC
2 TC to Cabot
Nigeria
T/C to Enagas, T/C to Union Fenosa
Trinidad
T/C to Petronet
T/C to Enagas and Union Fenosa
UC
To Japan
To Japan
Australia
UC
Owner Number of LNG vessels Comment
Exmar
MISC
Golar LNG
Shell
BP
Bergesen
Nigeria LNG
Naviera Tapas
BG
SCI/MOSK+
Knutsen OAS
AP Møller
Tokyo Electric
Tokyo Gas
NWS
Tanker Pacifica?
Other
Total
Firm contractedFirm speculative
Newbuildings Delivery Schedule
6
11
15
8
1
5
1
2002 2003 2004 2005
FirmBG (2)MISC (2)Naviera Tapias (2)SCI/MOSK (1)NWS (1)Knutsen OAS (1)Tokyo Gas (1)Tokyo Electric (1)Shell (1)Lino Kaiun (1)BP (1)Elcano (1)
SpeculativeGolar (2)Exmar (1)Bergesen (1)
AP Møller (1)
FirmGolar LNG (1)Bergesen (2)Exmar (2)Shell (2)BP (2)MISC (1)Naviera Tapias (1)Nigeria LNG (1)
SpeculativeGolar (1)
FirmExmar (1)MISC (1)Nigeria LNG (2)Brunei Gas Carriers* (1)Greenfield Shipping (1)
FirmMISC (2)Exmar (2)Shell (1)SCI/MOSK (1)Knutsen OAS (1)Qatar Shipping (1)
SpeculativeTanker Paci fic (1)
6
12
20
9
* Will replace vessel to be redelivered to Nigeria LNG Source:Platou; Clarkson; Shipping reports; Press clippings
ESTIMATE
Firm contracted
Firm speculative
6
18
38
47 47
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Supply / Demand
”Base case” (U.S. Terminal capacity utilized)
Building of economically viable terminal in US East 2004
7 bcm, not 2 bcm, imported into India and China
Less US trade – 50% of new capacity in US utilized
Sensitivity
US east terminal and 5 mt US west Coast terminal in 2006
Firm ships
PRELIMINARY
Source:Team analysis
2730
41
47 48
Capacity Conclusion 2001 - 2005
• Liquefaction capacity increases from 123 MT to 180 MT.• Regas capacity increases from 278 MT to 345 MT.• The number of ships increase based on current orderbook
from 126 to 173.• One US West Coast terminal increases ship demand with 8
– 10 ships.
Will a Spot Market Develop ?
• It has already happened –Evidence :– 50 % of US Cargoes in 2000 were spot sales.– 8 % of total LNG sold in 2000 were spot sales.– Distrigaz has rerouted LNG to US and
substituted with European Gas.– Increased price linkages Europe / USA– The major LNG players plan based on
increased spot trading.
The Competitiveness of LNGIndicated Cost Numbers
Operation USD/MMBtu
Feed Gas 0.60Liquefaction Infrastructure 1.00Transportation 0.60Terminal 0.40Total 2.60
The strength of the LNG market
• US Gas Prices have a floor price around USD 2,50/ MMBtu created by :– Cost curve structure of Gas production– Cost of Steam Coal equals USD 2 – 2.50/MMBtu gas.– Parity to Oil (0.183 )
• Short term prices can show high volatility due to limited storgage capacity and weather driven demand.
• US LNG Import covers only 1 % of US gas consumption.• LNG has large delivery flexibility.
An economical calculation• Trade: Algeria – Lake Charles• FOB Price: 60 % of Henry Hub• Regas: USD 0.40 per MMBtu
110.0004.00
94.0003.50
74.0003.00
54.0002.50
34.0002.00
16.0001.50
T/C rate (USD/day)Henry Hub Price (USD/MMBtu)
Golar LNG – The Company
The Golar Strategy
1. Be a ship owner that charters out LNG tonnage for various periods to the market in general.
2. Be an LNG trader that buys LNG FOB from various sources either alone or with a partner, and sells gas to LNG customers all over the world. As part of the trading activity, Golar will consider investing in other parts of the LNG chain, like liquefaction or regasification capacity.
3. Be a LNG development / construction company that invests in or develops new concepts like floating regas or liquefaction units.
Fleet list
Ship Ownership Built Capacity (m3) Charterer Golar Mazo 60 % 2000 138,000 CPC (BB) Golar Spirit 100 % 1981 129,013 Pertamina / KOGAS (BB) Khannur 100 % 1977 125,003 British Gas (TC) Gimi 100 % 1976 124,872 British Gas (TC) Hilli 100 % 1975 124,890 British Gas (TC)
Golar Freeze 100 % 1977 125,862 British Gas (TC) N/B #1 100 % 3/2003 138,000 British Gas (TC) N/B #2 100 % 10/2003 137,000 N/B #3 100 % 3/2004 138,000 N/B #4 100 % 7/2004 137,000 NGSCO #1 0 % (mgmt.) Abu Dhabi NGSCO #2 0 % (mgmt.) Abu Dhabi NGSCO #3 0 % (mgmt.) Abu Dhabi NGSCO #4 0 % (mgmt.) Abu Dhabi
Fleet Employment2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
Golar Mazo
Golar Spirit
Khannur
Gimi
Hilli
Golar Freeze
N/B #1
N/B #2
N/B #3
N/B #4
Firm Option
Golar Freeze
• The ship is redelivered from BG in March 2003.• Feasibility study for conversion to floating regas
terminal signed with Merlin Offshore.• Based on 50 cargoes a year and USD 0.40/MMBtu
terminal fee, gross revenue is approximately USD 60 million.
• A Freeze terminal can be in operation in the end of 2003 – almost two years ahead of competition.
LNG – an art of financing
• If a 100 % equity project gives 10 % direct yield – a re leverage of the project with 90 % leverage, 30 years flat repayment of the debt and current spot interest levels plus margin increases direct yield to approximately 45 %.
• UK Tax deals gives from 7 – 14 % in upfront cash value.
Future Revenue
• All capacity sold for 2002.• Committed revenue 2002 approximately USD 127
million calculated based on net 60 % of Golar Mazo.
• Total forward committed revenue approximately USD 1.5 billion.
Management Focus November 2001
• Seek long term charter for at least one more ship.• Develop Golar Freeze floating terminal concept.• Consolidation / Pooling with other owners.• Optimise existing financing structure to include tax lease.
Arrange financing for New buildings.• Consider interest hedging for loans.• Establish partnership with non shipping LNG players.• Develop trading arm.• List Company in US.