15
Page 3 View from the chair The latest from Paul Temple Page 7 Agronomists’ Conference Highlights from the technical event of the year Page 10 Recommended Lists Slimmer lists, resilience and risk Page 11 Meet the experts Your research managers Page 15 In your area AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds near you Keeping you up to date on AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds activity Spring 2016 A new era for milling wheat protein page 4 KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE MARKETS For daily market prices, analysis and intelligence, visit cereals.ahdb.org.uk/markets or follow @AHDB_Cereals #AHDBmarkets Risk, resilience and reward: page 7 How the three ‘R’s shape modern farming

Grain Outlook - Spring 2016

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Page 1: Grain Outlook - Spring 2016

Page 3View from the chairThe latest from Paul Temple

Page 7Agronomists’ Conference Highlights from the technical event of the year

Page 10Recommended ListsSlimmer lists, resilience and risk

Page 11Meet the expertsYour research managers

Page 15In your areaAHDB Cereals & Oilseeds near you

Keeping you up to date on AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds activity

Spring 2016

A new era for milling wheat protein page 4

KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THEMARKETSFor daily market prices, analysis and

intelligence, visit cereals.ahdb.org.uk/markets

or follow @AHDB_Cereals #AHDBmarkets

Risk, resilience and reward:

page 7

How the three ‘R’s shape modern farming

Page 2: Grain Outlook - Spring 2016

With advances in agronomics and disease resistance alongside good yields, the new Lists deliver the whole package for growers looking for innovative solutions as part of a risk management strategy.Dr Simon Oxley

AHDB Recommended Lists 2016/17

The way to order publications has changedTo order hard copies:Call: 0845 245 0009

Email:cereals.publications @ahdb.org.uk

To obtain electronic copies visit: cereals.ahdb.org.uk/publications

GRAIN OUTLOOK SPRING 20162

47*VARIETIES REMOVED 32

VARIETIES ADDED

WINTER WHEAT

09SPRING WHEAT

00WINTER BARLEY

05SPRING BARLEY

05OILSEED RAPE (EAST/WEST)

06OILSEED RAPE(NORTH)

05WINTER OATS

02SPRING OATS

00

WINTER WHEAT

14SPRING WHEAT

02WINTER BARLEY

04SPRING BARLEY

11OILSEED RAPE (EAST/WEST)

08OILSEED RAPE(NORTH)

03WINTER OATS

02SPRING OATS

04

Introducing your new slimmer Lists

Access the Lists at cereals.ahdb.org.uk/ varieties

*DK Expower has been removed from both the North and East/West Oilseed Rape Lists.

Page 3: Grain Outlook - Spring 2016

GRAIN OUTLOOK SPRING 2016 3

As the markets and weather both conspire to make a difficult beginning to the year, the demand for good information has never been greater. I know that many levy payers see attention to detail as their biggest challenge for 2016, and I’m sure I wasn’t alone in finding the title of the Agronomists’ Conference, ‘Risk, resilience, reward’, particularly apt.

This issue reports on the new Recommended Lists: yield data, agronomic features and regional ratings – all important elements in considering the right variety for your farm. I am amazed at the complexity and work that goes in, but it is a vital investment for AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds to make, as crop genetics are the cornerstone of what will be harvest 2017.

As a final thought, our work with the Monitor Farms seems to be showing that variable costs are fixed and fixed costs variable. You can read about one of the Monitor Farms’ approaches to machinery and traffic management on page 12. Focusing on cutting fixed costs without compromising yield and improving soil quality at the same time brings an exciting sense of challenge to the industry.

View from the chair

I know that many levy payers see attention to detail as their biggest challenge for 2016Paul Temple

Paul Temple

A wise brother in France once told me that ‘to take a risk is to prepare yourself to fail, but to hope and plan for success.’

For many of you, farming is a risky business, as our Regional Manager Tim Isaac explored at the Agronomists’ Conference last December. Taking risks is inevitable, but it’s not the end of the story.

Our theme for the year, ‘Risk, resilience, reward’ was unveiled at the Conference, and is what unifies the articles in this edition of Grain Outlook.

From our meetings with you, we know you want to arm yourself with all the information you need to maintain a strong, resilient business; seeking out ways to minimise the impact of any risks to your farm. Understanding what failure might look like, and then doing all you possibly can to work for the success of your business.

This edition of Grain Outlook is about just that: preparation. Building resilience into your business so that you can ride out the storms of the markets, weather, diseases, pests and family tragedies.Articles from our experts in the following pages cover a broad range of agronomic and business topics, from how the new Recommended Lists can be used as part of an integrated risk management strategy to AHDB work on proteins and resistance warnings.

I hope you find resources, reminders and research to help your business within the pages of this Grain Outlook, but remember that AHDB staff are also available to answer your questions.

Eleanor PerkinsEditor

Letter from the Editor

[email protected] 024 7647 8753 cereals.ahdb.org.uk

@AHDB_Cereals AHDB_Cereals

Page 4: Grain Outlook - Spring 2016

GRAIN OUTLOOK SPRING 20164

to try and counter the protein dilution effect, which would be expected with higher yielding varieties. If this is the case, it could change the way in which farmers respond to the milling premium.

“Due to the yield differences between feed and milling types, the traditional response to the premium has been to change variety. Now, the effect of reduced yield differences could be to inform faster in-season crop nutrition decisions based on whether it is in fact worth going for higher protein, targeting a lower grade or indeed selling the crop as feed.”

While the protein content of wheat has been grabbing the headlines over the past two years, the functionality of the protein is just as, if not more, important than the amount of protein. In 2012, the average GB wheat protein content was 12.5%, the highest in the past nine years, but the functionality was poor and so was of limited use to millers.

Additional AHDB work on proteinThis January, an AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds-funded project entitled ‘Developing new types of wheat with good breadmaking at low protein content’ got underway.

Led by Rothamsted Research with key breeding and processor partners, the project aims to screen selected cultivars and lines to identify genetic sources of stable quality at low protein content.

Currently, the AHDB Recommended Lists measure total protein, as opposed to functional protein but quality tests are complemented by baking tests to determine the quality of varieties compared to existing popular controls.

An analysis of data from the AHDB Cereals Quality Survey (CQS) compared protein performance of established milling wheats with the Group 1 variety Skyfall, which reached its first commercial harvest in 2015.Amandeep Kaur Purewal, AHDB Market Intelligence Senior Analyst, said: “A key question we wanted to answer was whether high milling wheat yields come at the expense of protein content.

“Results have shown that the protein content of commercially grown Skyfall was similar to that of some of the more established milling wheat varieties this harvest. However, as we are only dealing with protein data from one year (2015), we must wait to see the influence of further growing seasons before drawing concrete conclusions.”

Statistical tests were carried out on data from thousands of samples covered by the CQS.

A new era for milling wheat protein

The analysis showed that:• Skyfall’s protein content was below

that of Crusoe at the GB level and across the regions. Crusoe achieves the highest total protein levels of the quality varieties on the Recommended Lists

• Despite being lower at the GB level, Skyfall had a similar protein content to Gallant in the South East, East, South West and North

• A similar total protein content was seen between Skyfall and Cordiale in the East and Midlands

• Skyfall had a similar protein content to Solstice in the South East

With big wheat yields from the last two harvests, wheat protein has been the limiting quality factor. Final CQS results showed 37% of nabim Group 1 samples met the minimum 13% protein requirement for the full specification grade, compared with 90% and 92% for Hagberg and specific weight, respectively.

Dr Purewal said: “In anticipation of its strong potential yield, it is possible that farmers applied more fertiliser to Skyfall

2016 OSR area down 14% according to Early Bird SurveyIndicative early GB planting intentions for the 2016 harvest suggest a static total wheat area of 1.83M hectares, which is just 2% below the past five-year average. Spring barley and pulses are expected to rise in area from the 2015 harvest, while oilseed rape and winter barley areas are expected to decline by 14% and 4%, respectively. The main reason for the increase in spring barley is likely to be the gradual shift towards more spring cropping in an attempt to manage grass weeds.

More insight on cropping areas for harvest 2016 will be available when the results of the AHDB winter planting survey are published.

Page 5: Grain Outlook - Spring 2016

GRAIN OUTLOOK SPRING 2016 5

Growing malting barley for the market“It is important to understand that malting barley has distinct categories and generally will be grown for one of three markets: the brewing, pot still malt, or grain distilling sectors,” said Eddie Douglas, Commercial Director of Bairds Malt Limited.

More information• Barley Growth Guide• Grain quality criteria for malting barley• Cereal Sellers’ Checklist• Final project report: Nitrogen

management in spring malting barley(PR367)

• MAGB wish list in the latestRecommended Lists

All available on cereals.ahdb.org.uk

Research ‘mash’ upLaunched last year, the ‘DPGENES’ project explores the genes affecting the ability of malts to break down starches into fermentable sugars.

Running since 2011, the ‘IMPROMALT’ project uses genetic knowhow to transfer spring malting barley quality characters to winter malting barley.

Find out more at cereals.ahdb.org.uk/research

AHDB opens up Chinese barley export marketUK barley can now be exported to China, thanks to an extraordinary industry effort spearheaded by AHDB. A guide outlining the requirements of the protocol to export UK barley to China has been written by AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds in conjunction with industry and government bodies. cereals.ahdb.org.uk/exports

Typical specifications

Most brewers require a total N of 1.55 – 1.85%

Distillers with pot stills and traditional ale brewers may need even lower N

Some brewers of export lager, using starch-rich adjuncts, require a total N of 1.80 – 1.85%

Global production

in Mt

UK production in Mt

2005/6

136

137

133

155

151

123

134

129

145

141

5.2

5.1

6.1

6.7

5.3

5.5

5.5

7.1

6.9

7.4

2006/7

2007/8

2008/9

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

Data: AHDB

The specificationsThe majority of winter barley grown in the UK is from varieties suitable for the feed sector; however, there are some winter varieties suitable for malting, so growers need good dialogue with local consumers to ensure they are targeting the correct nitrogen specification. For winter barley, this is typically 1.70–1.85%.

Spring malting barley consumers, on the other hand, tend to have a wider range of nitrogen requirements, typically maximums of 1.50% or 1.65% for distilling, 1.85% for brewing and 1.75% for grain distilling.

Meeting the specificationsIf growers can segregate barley bulks according to nitrogen levels, this significantly enhances the marketability and value of the crop. A bulk with a narrow range of nitrogen level delivers optimal performance in the malting modification process and this has follow-on benefits for the brewer and distiller.

Growers should draw fresh representative samples on a monthly basis to provide pre-delivery samples to intake points, giving both the buyer and seller confidence in the marketable quality.

Selecting the most suitable barley variety to grow for the malting market requires up-to-date information, so the AHDB and Institute of Brewing and Distilling (IBD) annual update of approved varieties is a good starting point.

However, it is equally important to maintain a good dialogue with local buyers, intake points and grain merchants, especially as some varieties not on the approved list are still required by brewers and distillers.

Growers should also consider that climate, soil type and disease resistance may affect the performance of varieties, which can also affect maturity.

Therefore, it is crucial for growers to have an appropriate agronomy programme to help them achieve a marketable crop of the correct specification.

ukmalt.com

In the fieldBlack Isle Monitor Farm hosts Brian and Caroline Matheson grow malting barley near Inverness. For harvest 2015, they grew Concerto, Chronicle, and the niche variety Brioni; half for seed, and half for malting.

Brian said: “Spring barley yields [for harvest 2015] were pleasing, with an average of 6.1t/ha for our malting crop with very few skinning issues, which has been a major problem for other farmers in this region.

“This year, we’ll be mostly growing Concerto, Chronicle and Sienna. As growers, we’d like to have a range of agronomically sound varieties in the field, but we also have to grow what the market wants.”

Page 6: Grain Outlook - Spring 2016

GRAIN OUTLOOK SPRING 20166

Page 7: Grain Outlook - Spring 2016

GRAIN OUTLOOK SPRING 2016 7

Investing inInnovationResearch & Knowledge Exchange

Strategy 2015–2020

Evidence-based solutions for a

competitive and sustainable

arable sector

INFORM ON-FARM

DECISIONS

PREPARE

THE INDUSTRY

IMPROVE BUSINESS

OPPORTUNITIES

Our new ‘Risk, resilience, reward’ communication theme, which will run throughout 2016, was introduced at this year’s Agronomists’ Conference.Taking place on 8 December, the conference got a fresh direction from our new research strategy, which was launched in early 2015.

The conference chair, George Lawrie, grower and AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds Research and Knowledge Transfer Committee chair, said that agronomic resilience is at the heart of the latest research strategy because resilient arable businesses are much better placed to ride out sustained periods of cost and price pressures.

Mr Lawrie added that resilience needs to be understood before action is taken and that the key is to understand the multitude of risks that growers’ businesses face.

At the conference, Prof Hughes set the scene by providing definitions of risk, resilience and reward. However, he introduced a fourth ‘R’ because many decision-makers think about ‘regret’ more than ‘reward’.

He cited this ‘regret’ culture as one of the biggest barriers to the uptake of integrated pest management (IPM).

Often the hardest decision to take is to do nothing, so many people look for reasons not to act.For example, when it comes to spraying, the default can often be ‘spray’ with people looking for evidence to choose not to spray.

“Many people fear the consequences of not treating and the potential costs of getting it wrong.”

It was argued that attitudes to risk must be considered when creating IPM tools and that the evidence ‘not to treat’ needs to be robust to override the dominant urge to treat.

Prof Hughes concluded by stating that the industry needed to take ‘shared responsibility’ and work together to integrate farmer experience, evidence in the crop and the expertise of the advisor, and improve the quality of decisions on-farm.

Resilience: The answer to climate change?The floods which swept across Britain this winter were proof that climate change, particularly associated extreme weather events, was already here, according to Dr Piet Boonekamp of Wageningen University and Research Centre.

In particular, he urged people to work towards resilient farming systems, adding that natural ecosystems, where healthy plants are ‘rather a rule than an exception’, should provide a source of inspiration.

Climate change is already here... there are three ways to react: deny it, ignore it or adapt to it.

Many people fear the consequences of not treating and the potential costs of getting it wrongProf Gareth Hughes

Dr Boonekamp shows a headline from that day’s edition of ‘The Times’, which read ‘floods caused by global warming’

Agronomists’ Conference 2015!

Agronomists’ Conference 2015

Could a ‘regret’ culture impede IPM? When do you decide to spray? Do you look for reasons to spray or do you look for reasons not to spray? Gareth Hughes, Professor of Plant Disease Epidemiology SRUC, explained how risk attitudes drive decision-making on farm.

Page 8: Grain Outlook - Spring 2016

GRAIN OUTLOOK SPRING 20168

Latest fungicide performance dataAs new warnings of septoria tritici isolates with reduced sensitivity to SDHIs rang in delegates’ ears, the traditional reveal of the latest fungicide performance data was packaged with a healthy dose of resistance management advice.

Each year, the Agronomists’ Conference provides an in-depth analysis of the performance of fungicides trialled as part of our research programme.

Septoria spotlight

Dr Jonathan Blake, Senior Research Scientist ADAS, who delivered the presentation, said that in 2015, on average, 50% of wheat crops were still infected with septoria in mid-late June and it was inevitable that the disease would ‘bulk up’ and impact on yield.

SDHI efficacy warnings

Delegates were informed of a recent discovery, by Teagasc in Ireland, where septoria isolates with reduced sensitivity to SDHIs had been detected.

Commenting on this finding, Dr Blake said it represented a ‘step-change in sensitivity but what size that step is, we just don’t know’.

“As the less sensitive isolates are at a low frequency in Ireland, and, as its fitness is unknown, it could disappear altogether.”

In terms of control, fungicide performance trials showed that SDHIs remained the most active chemistry when applied in protectant situations.

However, with this insensitive isolate discovered ‘so close to home’, delegates were told it reinforced the need for SDHI stewardship.

In particular, delegates were advised to use different modes of action and embrace varietal resistance.

All fungicide performance information is available at cereals.ahdb.org.uk/fungicide

By funding innovative work to bring highly localised disease information to growers, AHDB is part of the disease monitoring revolution.

This was the message to delegates delivered by Dr Jenna Watts, AHDB Research Manager, as part of a critique of disease management information.

Dr Watts said that rapid shifts in disease susceptibility provided the clear need, in particular, to monitor breakdowns in disease resistance within the season.

She added that in-season disease monitoring tools had advanced significantly over the last few years.Enthusing about the future, Dr Watts said that advances in molecular approaches, automated spore trapping technology, increased activity at RL trial sites and

the power of social media meant disease monitoring information was becoming increasingly accurate, offering the precision needed for robust decision-making.

Delegates were also reminded of the important work of the United Kingdom Pathogen Virulence Survey (UKCPVS), which helps track the spread of pathogens and associated virulence (ability to cause disease).

SDHI stewardshipFollowing reports of laboratory and field isolates of septoria tritici with reduced sensitivities to SDHI fungicides, AHDB worked with the Fungicide Resistance Action Group-UK (FRAG-UK) to clarify the situation and promote resistance management messages.

For information on SDHI stewardship, visit cereals.ahdb.org.uk/sdhi

Jenna Watts at the Agronomists’ Conference

Agronomists’ Conference 2016

cereals.ahdb.org.uk/monitoring

Advances in disease monitoring

Page 9: Grain Outlook - Spring 2016

GRAIN OUTLOOK SPRING 2016 9

Glyphosate: Weed resistance strategies adoptedIn the last edition of Grain Outlook (Autumn 2015), we reported that AHDB and the Weed Resistance Action Group (WRAG) had prepared glyphosate resistance management guidelines.

At the Agronomists’ Conference, James Clarke, ADAS and WRAG, asked a series of questions relating to the potential threat of glyphosate resistance developing in UK weeds.

Delegates were invited to hold up coloured cards to give their answers

to three questions (see pictures).The results revealed that most agronomists felt they would not be able to produce cereals and oilseeds cost-effectively if glyphosate was not available and that many planned to change their glyphosate strategies to help maintain its efficacy.

Weed strategies turn ‘stale’As 2016 Nuffield Arable Scholar, Ben Taylor-Davies will look at the role stale seedbeds play in managing black-grass populations.

Ben, who grew up on his family farm in Herefordshire, chose the topic because he believes resistant black-grass is the ‘perfect weed’ and a great threat to British agriculture.

Including an analysis of the mechanical, environmental and total herbicide techniques employed in other parts of the world, the scholarship will investigate ways to achieve the greatest reduction in viable black-grass seeds.

Ben intends to travel to Australia, Brazil, Argentina, USA and South Africa, as well as parts of Europe.

The 2016 Scholarship received funding from AHDB and the Three Counties Agricultural Society.

cereals.ahdb.org.uk/nuffield

Be part of the disease monitoring revolutionJoin the disease monitoring networkMake sure you don’t miss a thing…For full information on our disease monitoring activities and to sign up to our new ‘disease alerts’ email service, visit cereals.ahdb.org.uk/monitoring

…And don’t forgetIf you see rust or mildew on crops with a high disease rating, share your finding with the UKCPVS team.

Save the date:UKCPVS stakeholder event 8 March 2016

Question 1Between harvest and drilling (up to and including autumn 2014) did you use three or more applications of glyphosate (per year)?

Question 2Could you produce cereals and oilseeds cost-effectively if glyphosate was not available?

Question 3Will you change your strategy to maintain the efficacy of glyphosate? cereals.ahdb.org.uk/weeds

YESNO

Black-grass is the ‘perfect weed’ and a great threat to British agricultureBen Taylor-Davies

Agronomists’ Conference 2016

Page 10: Grain Outlook - Spring 2016

GRAIN OUTLOOK SPRING 201610

Plant breeding rewards

AHDB collaborated with BSPB at Cereals 2015 to display a giant variety development timeline charting key plant breeding milestones over the last 50 years.The timeline has now been brought to life with the assistance of an animated spiralling DNA double helix. cereals.ahdb.org.uk/varieties

At the Agronomists’ Conference, Dr Oxley explained how a criterion for relative risk – based on agronomic merit and untreated yield – is now used to identify more resilient varieties.Such varieties provide an exceptionally strong positive balance of features and perform reasonably well under variable conditions.

What is ‘agronomic merit’?Agronomic merit takes account of resistance to all key diseases (instead of looking at individual diseases in isolation) and standing power.

The rating also considers the relative importance of each disease, for example, septoria tritici is higher risk compared with yellow rust ‘as control options are more limited’.

The agronomic merit rating provides a single measure of the underpinning genetic resistance of a variety. The higher the rating, the better, overall, the agronomics of the varieties.

Calculating ‘relative risk’Once the agronomic merit rating is established, a chart can then be prepared with additional untreated yield trial data to factor in the risk of yield loss.

Selecting low risk varietiesUsing the approach, Dr Oxley presented a map of relative risk for Group 4 feed varieties and made comparisons between new and established varieties. It showed varieties in a completely different light.

Product withdrawals, a lack of new chemistry, changing pathogen populations and challenging weather mean that varieties increasingly need to be able to stand up for themselves in the fight against disease and lodging.

New Year’s resolution: Put varietal resilience first?

Slimming the Lists

When it comes to varieties, choice is a good thing in a country with diverse growing conditions and markets. But when it comes to the RL trials, increased choice comes at a cost.

Dr Simon Oxley, who heads the RL project, explains why the 2016/17 RL has seen a relatively high reduction in the total number of recommended varieties:“We’ve been working with breeders to improve the RL, in particular agreeing when varieties should be removed from the RL.When varieties fall behind on disease standards, yield, or are no longer the variety of choice by end-users, they will now be removed one year after they are out of trial.

“It is important that we do this as it allows us to focus our limited resources and provide information on new varieties.

“In some years, advances in breeding are made and it is only right that, if new varieties provide the industry with better quality, better disease resistance and better agronomics, these varieties are strongly considered for recommendation.

“Some growers will always want to continue to grow an established variety, since they have the experience of how they perform on their farm. Further trialling of these varieties isn’t, however, likely to contribute more to understanding them.”

See page 2 for more.

32Varieties

added

47Varieties removed

Neutral relative risk Low relative risk

Revelation

GrahamCougarCostello

ReflectionMosaic

DickensJB Diego

Myriad

KWS Gator

KWS KielderBeluga

AmplifyConquerorTwister

KWS SantiagoLeeds

GraftonHoratio

Evolution

Relay

Alchemy

Viscount

KWS CrispinBelgrade

KWS Silverstone

10.5

10.0

9.5

9.0

8.5

8.0

7.5

7.0

6.5110 120 130 140

Agronomic merit

Untr

eate

d yi

eld

t/ha

150 160 170

High relative risk Neutral relative risk

Above: The ‘relative risk’ concept. Varieties (in this case Group 4) can be mapped to reveal how likely they are to perform well under variable conditions. The cross wires (dashes) represent the average untreated yield and agronomic merit rating of all the varieties.

Agronomists’ Conference 2016

Page 11: Grain Outlook - Spring 2016

GRAIN OUTLOOK SPRING 2016 11

Meet the experts: Research and Knowledge Transfer

Amanda Bennett: Soil management

Caroline Nicholls: Pests and agronomy

Dhan Bhandari: Food and feed, quality and safety

Ellie Marshall: Plant breeding and genetics

Sajjad Awan: Resource management

Simon Oxley: Recommended Lists and agronomy

Jenna Watts: Crop diseases

Paul Gosling: Crop diseases and weeds

Susannah Bolton: Head of Research and Knowledge Transfer

Harley Stoddart: Policy and Research Manager

No-till at Newport Monitor Farm: disc versus tineFour different views on the disc-vs-tine debate in no-till farming are captured in a new video, filmed at the Newport Monitor Farm meeting on 9 December 2015. The short film is available on AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds’ YouTube channel.

Fertiliser Report

What’s inside?• Nitrogen, phosphates and potash supply

and demand data

• Global market overview and trends

To subscribe to the email, contact [email protected]

Spanish wheat production = approx. 5Mt per year

Import forecasts for 2015/16:

• Barley = 864,000t

• Wheat = 5.5Mt

Importers

Main brokers in Spain:

• Zeleny (Pamplona)

• Glencore (Madrid)

• Nidera (Madrid)

• Cargill (Barcelona)

Consumer trends (for 2015/16 compared with 2014/15)

Bread

• Bread prices increased 1.7%

• Household spending on bread decreased 3.2%

• Consumption of fresh industrial bread increased

Biscuits• Biscuit/cakes consumption

and product availability are increasing

• 13.70kg per capita (2013) 13.80kg per capita (2014)

Animal feed

• Barley use is in decline due to the fall in prices of other cereals

2014/15 2015/16 forecast

Wheat 6.3Mt 6.4MtBarley 7.2Mt 6.6Mt

(*source: Magrama via Alimarket May 2015, Strategie Grains)

cereals.ahdb.org.uk/[email protected]

Target market:

Spain

To help you make more informed input purchases, we launched a pilot of the bimonthly AHDB Fertiliser Report last December.

Page 12: Grain Outlook - Spring 2016

GRAIN OUTLOOK SPRING 201612

Comments from other Monitor Farm hosts

Julian illustrated that CTF can be simple, and that you don’t need to spend a fortune doing it. But, with our progression to no-till, we won’t be looking at doing CTF ourselves.

Russell McKenzie, Huntingdon Monitor Farm

I’d like a group from our Monitor Farm to visit Julian and spend more time looking at his system. Julian made CTF sound affordable to anyone, although I don’t know whether it would work on our heavier soil. It certainly did provoke some serious thought.

Philip Meadley, Driffield Monitor Farm

The presentation Julian gave was very informative. CTF would definitely work here and it is something that we are working towards. It goes hand in hand with direct drilling and looking after the soil.

Simon King and Mike Daniells, Louth Monitor Farm

Julian Gold farms 800ha at Hendred Farm Partnership in Oxfordshire. He has hosted the AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds Wantage Monitor Farm since summer 2014, and spoke to the entire Monitor Farm network in November 2015 about his conversion to Controlled Traffic Farming (CTF).

Our change to CTF in 2012 was a logical piece of the farm management jigsaw – aiming to run the farm in a profitable but sustainable manner without degrading the soil.

We operate a 10/30 system: all the field operations are on 10m centres, and spraying and fertilising are on 30m tramlines.

We have a 10m cultivator drill running at a shallow depth to lightly incorporate chopped straw, kill slugs and chit up grass weeds and volunteers. This stale seedbed is then rolled and subsequent growth is sprayed off pre-drilling. OSR is generally direct drilled into chopped wheat straw or into barley stubbles where straw has been removed.

In 2015, we successfully chopped all of our spring barley straw and experimented with some OSR after chopped winter barley straw.

After harvest, if the main 30m tramlines are not rutted they will be left untouched to provide good, firm tramlines for the following season. If remedial action is needed on a deeply rutted headland tramline, for example, then covering discs and gutlers are brought into action after the tines to infill the rut and firm back up.

End headlands beyond the headland tramline are sacrificial turning areas and these 15m strips are usually loosened with a shakerator.

Now that we are a few years down the line, we are starting to see improvements in soil conditions and savings in establishment costs. Earthworm numbers are up and the general friability, structure and lack of compaction is noticeable in the soil.

CTF also seems to have weatherproofed our farming: in dry conditions, the shallow cultivations and direct drilling lose less moisture. In wet conditions, we do not destroy our soils ‘mauling about in slubber’.

The increased work rates and weatherproofing also give us the confidence to start drilling later if necessary and gain valuable extra stale seedbed time.

Our biggest challenge with CTF is trash management. Now that everything is along the same parallel lines, we need good trash management to prevent blockages of equipment and ensure an even spread of carbon over the soil surface. We have to regularly turn and change combine chopper blades and also ensure we stop combining if conditions get too damp for good chopping.

There is an extra capital cost to CTF when starting off because machinery will usually be bigger and may have non-standard specification, but, in my experience, the advantages of a CTF system far outweigh the disadvantages.

I can still remember the ‘Eureka!’ moment when we finished harvesting our first field on the system and it all seemed so obviously the right thing to do. Why hadn’t I thought of it 30 years ago?cereals.ahdb.org.uk/wantage

No traffic jamI’ve been farming for 40 years and the decision to change to CTF has given me the biggest change to my bottom lineJulian Gold

Julian now traffics just 20% of his land, a change that has saved him over £10/ha in fuel, and half an hour per hectare of labour. It has helped him to prevent compaction and reduced the number of management decisions he has to make.

Page 13: Grain Outlook - Spring 2016

GRAIN OUTLOOK SPRING 2016 13

Levy payers have their say at the AHDB Activity Review

The benefits of sharing experience Monitor Farms in England and Wales

70+2400+ Monitor Farm participants

value openly discussing issues and sharing experiences

More emphasis on business planning and forecasting

Re-evaluating rotations and crop selection

Increased focus on budgeting and financial

management

Adapted techniques for headland management

Developed strategies to market grain

Reduced the number of tractors on farm

Made better use of yield mapping

91%

think the topics are business-focused

improve their technical knowledge

60,000years of experience in the programme

meetingsin a year

How do participants benefit from the Monitor Farm programme?

Major improvements made on farms include

92% 75%

Open discussions of practical challenges to combinable cropping systems are valuable, as my own farm business is going through rapid changes.William Cooper, Louth Monitor Farm group

As a result of the Monitor Farm meetings, I’m now re-evaluating costs, inputs and am going to start benchmarking. Andrew Osmond, Winchester Monitor Farm group

Data from the Monitor Farm programme 2014 – 2015

Share farming knowledge and improve your business today. Go to cereals.ahdb.org.uk/monitorfarms or follow #monitorfarm

Staff from across the sectors have been out and about during the autumn and winter listening to levy payers’ views on AHDB’s priorities.

How and where your levy money is invested to best benefit your business is something we are keen to ensure we are getting right, particularly against a background of increasing challenges across our farming, horticulture and supply chain sectors.

Farmers, growers and supply chain levy payers ‘had their say’ at a number of open meetings and stakeholder discussion groups being held across the country, and many of you completed the online questionnaire.

For updates on the results,visit ahdb.org.uk

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GRAIN OUTLOOK SPRING 201614

On the lookout for PED A collaboration with the Government means the pig industry is better prepared to face Porcine Epidemic Diarrhoea (PED) should it arrive on our shores.Pig Keepers and vets are now legally required to inform the Animal and Plant Health Agency of any suspicion of the disease. If a test for PED proves positive, Government will inform AHDB Pork, so that tracing can be carried out and improved biosecurity measures put in place. pork.ahdb.org.uk

TB hubThere is a new online hub for beef and dairy farmers looking for advice on bovine TB. It was developed by AHDB Beef & Lamb and AHDB Dairy, working with Defra, the Animal and Plant Health Agency, the National Farmers’ Union, the British Cattle Veterinary Association and Landex. The hub includes advice and links to further information, covering everything from biosecurity to trading rules.tbhub.co.uk

Developing Beef ExpertiseA group of beef industry consultants and advisers have got an in-depth insight into herd performance and selecting cattle for slaughter, thanks to a new initiative from AHDB Beef & Lamb and the British Institute of Agricultural Consultants. The first meeting of Developing Beef Expertise took place in December 2015.beefandlamb.ahdb.org.uk

Hot potato?The new seasonal publication on this country’s potato markets for 2015-2016 was released at BP2015. Compiled by the AHDB Market Intelligence team, the aim of the annual publication is to provide robust, key information about the GB potato market in order to inform the industry’s decision-making.potatoes.ahdb.org.uk

Over the hedgeNews from across AHDB

Recently launched, CountrysideClassroom is an online resource to help teachers incorporate food, farming and the natural environment into their everyday practice. Countryside Classroom is supported by a large and growing partnership of committed organisations. It is led by Farming and Countryside Education (FACE) and funded by donations from AHDB and the Prince’s Countryside Fund. countrysideclassroom.org.uk

For more information please contact [email protected] or 0845 838 7192

From April 2016 onwards, new ‘stewardship conditions’ labels on rodenticides for use outside will require users to hold professional certification which complies with UK Rodenticide Stewardship Regime requirements.

A free, self-study training course on rodent control is now available for farmers via an industry online hub, ‘Rodent control on farms’. It’s one of several training routes to help farmers who want to become certified to use professional rodenticide products under new rules.

The hub has been funded by AHDB and developed in partnership with other industry organisations including British Poultry Council, NFU and NFUS.

rodentcontrolonfarms.co.uk

Experts from across industry gathered in Westminster at the launch of the AHDB Volatility Forum on 27 January. The event saw farmers, processors, retailers and trade associations come together to seek practical solutions for businesses affected by market uncertainty across agricultural supply chains. A long-term work programme will be determined by a Steering Group to ensure the initiative maintains momentum and produces tangible results for the benefit of the industry. AHDB is interested in hearing from anyone interested in the Volatility Forum about the skills and knowledge they could offer. Contact Jack Watts on 024 7647 8760 or [email protected]

Connecting schools with farming

AHDB gathers UK industry to tackle market volatility

Rodent control hub to help with new rules

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© Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board 2016. All rights reserved. AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds is a division of the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board.

Your regional teamScotlandGavin Dick07972 [email protected] @CerealsScotland

East AngliaTim Isaac07964 [email protected] @Cereals_EA

South EastPaul Hill07964 [email protected] @Cereals_SE

Knowledge Exchange ManagerEmily Smith 07790 948248 [email protected]

NorthJudith Stafford07891 [email protected] @Cereals_North

South WestPhilip Dolbear07964 [email protected] @Cereals_SW

West and WalesRichard Meredith07717 [email protected] @Cereals_West

East MidlandsHarry Henderson07964 [email protected] @Cereals_EM

AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds is recruiting eight new Monitor Farms across England, to be launched early in the summer.

See page 15 for your local update from AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds.

cereals.ahdb.org.uk [email protected] 024 7647 8730

= current AHDB arable Monitor Farm