Guns and Violence: A Global Guns and Violence: A Global PerspectivePerspective

Robert MuggahRobert Muggah

Small Arms Survey, GenevaSmall Arms Survey, Geneva

Key pointsKey points• The global distribution of weapons is uneven The global distribution of weapons is uneven

and « lumpy » and related to income, and « lumpy » and related to income, regulatory frameworks and « demand factors »regulatory frameworks and « demand factors »

• About 700,000 deaths per year can be About 700,000 deaths per year can be attributed to armed violence (direct and attributed to armed violence (direct and indirect)indirect)

• The global distribution of armed violence does The global distribution of armed violence does not map directly onto the distribution of not map directly onto the distribution of weaponsweapons

• « vectors of violence » are poorly understood« vectors of violence » are poorly understood• « Violence pays »: in many places the politics of « Violence pays »: in many places the politics of

violence reduction are complex and difficult violence reduction are complex and difficult

A largely civilian A largely civilian arsenalarsenal

Who has the guns?

Civilians own approximately 650 million of the total 875 million combined civilian, law enforcement, and military firearms in the world today

Rates of Rates of Civilian Civilian Weapons Weapons Possession: Possession: Selected Selected CountriesCountries(per 100 persons)(per 100 persons)

Per capita GDP and Civilian Per capita GDP and Civilian PossessionPossession

A Global Gun Market?A Global Gun Market?

Large price differentials for similar weapons exist Large price differentials for similar weapons exist across the world – the result across the world – the result inter aliainter alia of national of national regulatory policies and local demandregulatory policies and local demand

Controlling Gun Markets: Controlling Gun Markets: Some FindingsSome Findings

• The more effective a country’s national The more effective a country’s national regulatory system, the higher the price for regulatory system, the higher the price for weaponsweapons• Countries with more porous borders tend to Countries with more porous borders tend to have lower weapons prices (especially in Africa)have lower weapons prices (especially in Africa)• Weapons prices do not appear associated with Weapons prices do not appear associated with homicide rates, economic downturns, or young homicide rates, economic downturns, or young male demographicsmale demographics• Cheaper weapons are related to an increased Cheaper weapons are related to an increased risk of civil warrisk of civil war• Excess weapons in post-conflict settings tend Excess weapons in post-conflict settings tend to keep prices low, increasing the regional to keep prices low, increasing the regional conflict risk for some timeconflict risk for some time

Why Focus on the Gun?Why Focus on the Gun?

Weapons Weapons are a are a principal principal vector of vector of violenceviolence

In most In most cases, the cases, the vast majority vast majority of homicides of homicides are are committed committed with gunswith guns

The Global The Global Burden of Burden of Armed Armed ViolenceViolence

• Approximately Approximately 700,000 fatal injuries 700,000 fatal injuries annually annually

• 40-80,000+ of these 40-80,000+ of these in armed conflictin armed conflict

• 490,000 from 490,000 from homicide, suicide homicide, suicide and accidentand accident

• 60% with firearms)60% with firearms)

• Approximately 160-Approximately 160-200,000+ « indirect 200,000+ « indirect victims »victims »

Visualizing VictimizationVisualizing Victimization

Regional Distribution of Regional Distribution of Violent DeathsViolent Deaths

Region

Firearm Homicide (per 100,000)Africa East Africa 20.8

20.8

8.1

31.7

21.6

18.1

29.3

6.6

25.9

6.6

2.84.4 3.4

15.7

3.21.5

4

7.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Firearm Homicide (per 100,000)

Homicide in Latin AmericaHomicide in Latin America (17 countries in 2003 or nearest year, per 100,000)(17 countries in 2003 or nearest year, per 100,000)

Homicide (per 100,000)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Homicide (per 100,000)

Impact Distribution: Impact Distribution: Geography, age and genderGeography, age and gender

The Spatial Distribution of The Spatial Distribution of ViolenceViolence

xxxxGuatemala:Guatemala:

Most violence is Most violence is concentrated in concentrated in urban areas, urban areas, border areas, border areas, and major and major transportation transportation corridorscorridors

Violence is Violence is lowest in the lowest in the poor, poor, indigenous, indigenous, highland areashighland areas

Urbanization and Armed Urbanization and Armed ViolenceViolence

Number of cities/countriesand sub-region

Ratio of homicide rate in city(ies) to rate

in rest of country

3 cities in 3 countries in North America 2.3

28 cities in 28 countries in West/Central Europe 1.6

4 cities in 4 countries in C. Asia/Transcaucasia 1.4

8 cities in 8 countries in Southeast Europe 1.3

5 cities in 5 countries in East Asia 0.9

9 cities in 9 countries in South America 0.8

6 cities in 6 countries in Central America 0.8

4 cities in 4 countries in East Europe 0.6Source: UNODC

« Framing the Issue »: Forum « Framing the Issue »: Forum ShoppingShopping

II « The illicit trade in small arms and light « The illicit trade in small arms and light weapons in all itsweapons in all its aspects »aspects »

Supply-side, multilateral, global and regional: limited Supply-side, multilateral, global and regional: limited in utility (marking and tracing, brokers, transfer in utility (marking and tracing, brokers, transfer controls): arms control approachcontrols): arms control approach

IIII Small arms and development/poverty, etc. Small arms and development/poverty, etc.« Second generation » measures, DDR, stockpile « Second generation » measures, DDR, stockpile management, weapons destructionmanagement, weapons destruction

III Armed violence and developmentIII Armed violence and developmentViolence prevention and reduction programmes, Violence prevention and reduction programmes, demand-reduction, security sector reform: demand-reduction, security sector reform: criminological approachcriminological approach

Research Challenges and Research Challenges and DilemmasDilemmas

• Too little data; data-driven analytic models usually Too little data; data-driven analytic models usually don’t include guns as an “intervention point”don’t include guns as an “intervention point”

• Explanatory theories are lacking, implicit models Explanatory theories are lacking, implicit models are relatively crude, analysis is insufficiently “fine-are relatively crude, analysis is insufficiently “fine-grained”grained”

• Existing initiatives are predominantly national (or Existing initiatives are predominantly national (or inter-state); yet guns and violence are inter-state); yet guns and violence are demographically, spatially and socio-economically demographically, spatially and socio-economically concentratedconcentrated

• Identification of risk (and resilience) factors Identification of risk (and resilience) factors produces a shopping list; only weakly evidence-produces a shopping list; only weakly evidence-basedbased

• Violence is politically and economically productive, Violence is politically and economically productive, for both non-state and state actorsfor both non-state and state actors

Small Arms SurveySmall Arms Survey

www.smallarmssurvey.orgwww.smallarmssurvey.org

Small Arms SurveySmall Arms Survey

www.smallarmssurvey.orgwww.smallarmssurvey.org

Stemming Illicit Trafficking Stemming Illicit Trafficking and Useand Use

Arms production

legal sales to other

governments

legal transfers to domestic non-state actors (individuals,

brokers, etc.)

acquisitions by national

arsenals in producer states

Licensed arms

production

Improved export & border

controls, monitoring of

shipment routes,

re-exports to other regional

states

Legend:

Weapons production

points of interventio

n

legal acquisitions

major pipeline pipeline that could includelicit and/or illicit transfers

illicit pipeline

Codes of conduct, UN embargoes,

export policies

domestic "leakage":(theft, illicit sales) of

producers' arsenals to non-state actors

licit and/or illicit acquisitions

secondary "leakage":(theft, illicit sales) of

recipients' arsenals to non-state actors

acquisitions by non- national, non-state

actors: insurgent groups,

organized crime, private security forces,

private dealers, individuals

Marking & transparency

measures

re-exports to other non-state actors: insurgent groups organized crime

private security forces private dealers

individuals

Legislation regulating brokers

Marking &transparency measures

Regional accords, codes of conduct

Prohibit transfers to non-state

actors

Prohibit transfers to non-state

actors

Codes of conduct, UN embargoes,

export policies

Increased transpare

ncy

Increased transparency

Improved export & border

controls, monitoring of

shipment routes,

Improved export & border

controls, monitoring of

shipment routes,

Legislation regulating brokers

points of interventio

n

points of intervention

Cause or symptom?Cause or symptom?Escalatory cycles of armed Escalatory cycles of armed

violenceviolence

Escalating armed violenceEscalating armed violence

Arms racingArms racing Arms acquisitionArms acquisition

Force asymmetriesForce asymmetries

Symptom of Symptom of insecurityinsecurity

Cause of Cause of insecurityinsecurity

Direct and indirect costs of armed Direct and indirect costs of armed violenceviolence

HumanHuman Social, economic, and other costsSocial, economic, and other costs

Direct Direct Death and injury

Hospital careLost productivity/income Life insurance pay-outInterrupted commerceImpaired tax collection Capital flight Damage to private propertyDamage to infrastructureDamage to agriculture

IndirectIndirect Death and sickness from treatable diseaseDeath and sickness from malnutritionDeath and injury from risk-taking

Lost quality of lifeCare providing (family)Out-patient careMigration/emigration Increased policing IncarcerationHigher insurance ratesHigher commodity pricesLegal servicesReduced GDPLong term productivity/income lossesRe-building property and infrastructureRe-planting/re-stocking agriculture

• Ammunition flows can Ammunition flows can alter the intensity of alter the intensity of armed violence and armed violence and patterns of use/misusepatterns of use/misuse

• A consumable good: A consumable good: ammunition stocks can ammunition stocks can be quickly depletedbe quickly depleted

• A choke point for A choke point for controlling armed controlling armed violenceviolence

• Marking and tracing can Marking and tracing can deter proliferation and deter proliferation and leakageleakage

Targeting AmmunitionTargeting Ammunition

Kenya (Ethiopian border)

Kenya

Uganda

Sudan