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Monthly Movements in the New Claimant Counts (CC)

Monitoring the local labour market

and business news

The Hampshire

Labour Market Bulletin

April 2016

CC Number

Down by 535 to 10,820

CC Rate

No change at 1.0%

CC 16-24 Number

Down by 180 to 1,180

CC 16-24 Rate

Down by 0.1ppts to 0.9%

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Apr-89

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Hampshire Economic Area Unemployed Benefit Claimant Count Number and Working Age Rates (% 16-64yrs): 1989-2016

rece

ssio

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Rate

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Number

Number Working Age Working Age %

Hampshire Economic Area (HEA) April 2016 Headlines

Nationally, and using the Government’s preferred ILO estimates, the employment rate is 74.2% for the three months to March 2016, the highest since comparable records began in 1971. The unemployment rate is 5.1%. Locally, the nearest equivalent HEA employment rate is 75.3% for the 12 months to December 2015, while the unemployment rate is 4.0%. The more current, but narrower monthly claimant count in the HEA is down by 535 claimants to stand at 10,820 for April 2016. The rate is unchanged at 1.0%.

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National (ILO) Dashboard (3 mths to March 2016 and change on previous quarter)

Employment Number

31.58 million (+44,000)

Unemployment Number

1.69 million (-3,000)

Economic Inactivity Number

8.90 million (-20,000)

16-24 Unemployment Number

631 (-6,000)

Employment Rate

74.2% (+0.1ppts)

Unemployment Rate

5.1% (unchanged)

Economic Inactivity Rate

21.7% (-0.1ppts)

16-24 Unemployment Rate

13.7% (-0.1 ppts)

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77.7 78.5 79.275.3

73.5 73.4 73.3 73.4 73.5 73.6 73.7 73.9 74.0 74.1 74.1 74.1 74.2

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90.0

100.0

% e

mpl

oyed

(16+

)

Nearest Equivalent HEA Annual Rate UK ILO Quarter Rate (LFS)Date refers to LFS period

UK ILO Rates and Nearest Equivalent for the HEA

4.4 4.1 4.1 4.0

5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1

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% u

nem

ploy

ed (1

6+)

Nearest Equivalent HEA Annual Rate UK ILO Quarter Rate (LFS)Date refers to LFS period

UK and HEA Nearest Equivalent Unemployment Rate Comparison

The Government’s preferred ILO definition from the ONS Labour Force Survey is not published below the regional level. For a local comparison that provides the nearest equivalent statistic there is the Annual Population Survey. This is published quarterly covering a 12 month period.

UK and HEA Nearest Equivalent Employment Rate Comparison

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Employment

Number Employment numbers increased on the quarter by 44,000 to reach 31.58 million. Annually,

employment is up by 409,000.

Rate The UK employment rate is 74.2% for the three months to March 2016, and the highest since

comparable records began in 1971. This represents a quarterly rise of 0.1 of a percentage point, whereas the annual rate is up by 0.7 of a percentage point. For a local comparison, the nearest equivalent employment rate for the Hampshire Economic Area is 75.3% for the 12 months to December 2015, and 81.0% for the Hampshire County Council area.

Status Full-time employment increased on the quarter by 47,000 to 23.17 million, while Part-time

employment is down by 3,000 on the quarter to 8.46 million. The number of employees is up by 27,000 on the quarter to 26.69 million, while self-employment increased by 20,000 to 4.69 million. The number of unpaid family workers is down by 1,000 to 98,000, while the number on government supported training employment programmes is down by 2,000 to 98,000.

Pay and Inflation (Average Weekly Earnings and Consumer Price Index)

Average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain increased by 2.0% including bonuses and by 2.1% excluding bonuses compared with a year earlier.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 0.5% in the year to March 2016, compared with a 0.3% rise in the year to February. The rate has increased gradually since October 2015 although is still relatively low in the historical context.

ILO unemployment (Government's preferred measure from the LFS Survey

Number National ILO unemployment numbers are little changed (-3,000) on the quarter to 1.69 million for the

three months to March 2016. On the year the number is down by 139,000.

Rate The national unemployment rate is 5.1%, and unchanged on the quarter. The rate is down by 0.5 of a

percentage point on the year. Locally, the nearest equivalent ILO rate for the Hampshire Economic Area is 4.0% for the 12 months December 2015, and 3.6% for the Hampshire County Council area.

Youth Unemployment Number and Rate

Nationally, the number of 16 to 24 year olds out of work is down by 6,000 on the quarter to 631,000. The rate for 16-24yrs is 13.7%, and down by 0.1 of a percentage point on the quarter. Locally, the nearest equivalent 16-24yrs unemployment rate for the Hampshire Economic Area is 10.8% for the 12 months to December 2015, and 9.4% for the Hampshire County area.

Economic Inactivity

The UK working age economic inactivity rate stands at 21.7%, down by 0.1 of a percentage point on the quarter. The number of the economically inactive is down by 20,000 on the quarter to 8.90 million, and is down by 116,000 on the year. Locally, the nearest equivalent ILO Economic Inactivity rate for the Hampshire Economic Area is 20.3% for the 12 months December 2015, and 15.8 % for the Hampshire County Council area.

National Commentary

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Nearest Equivalent Local ILO Labour Market Statistics (next update July 2016)

Locally, the nearest equivalent ILO employment rate in the Hampshire Economic Area is 75.3% for the 12 months to December 2015, and 81.0% in the Hampshire County area. The HEA unemployment rate is 4.0% compared to 3.6% in the Hampshire County Council area. The nearest equivalent unemployment rate for 16-24 year olds in the Hampshire Economic Area is 10.8% for the 12 months to December 2015, and 9.4% for the Hampshire County Council area. The nearest equivalent ILO Economic Inactivity rate for the Hampshire Economic Area is 20.3% for the 12 months to December 2015, and 15.8% for the Hampshire County Council area.

New Claimant Count Number and Rates (This replaces the JSA only data)

Under the new unemployed Claimant Count measure (JSA + UC),the number of claimants for April 2016 is 10,820. This represents a decrease of 535 claimants on March 2016, and 890 fewer claimants compared to April 2015. The unemployed claimant count rate is unchanged at 1.0%. The South East and UK rates are both unchanged at 1.1% and 1.9% respectively. As such, the Hampshire Economic Area (HEA) rate is 0.9 of a percentage point lower than the UK rate.

Twelve of the 14 HEA and Isle of Wight local authority districts saw a monthly decrease in unemployment benefit claimants, ranging from five fewer claimants in East Hampshire to 215 fewer claimants on the Isle of Wight. Hart saw no change, while Test Valley recorded an increase of five claimants. Ten of the 14 local authority districts saw fewer claimant numbers on the year, while four saw an increase.

New Claimant Count Number by Gender (This replaces the JSA only data)

Male unemployed benefit claimant numbers for April 2016 are down by 380 on March 2016 to 6,925. Female numbers are down by 160 to 3,895 claimants. Annual unemployment benefit claimant numbers for males are down on the year (Apr 2015) by 535, while female numbers are down by 355.

New Claimant Count Youth Unemployment (This replaces the JSA only data)

The level of 16-24 year olds on unemployment benefit decreased on the month by 180 to 1,180. The rate is down by 0.1 of a percentage point to 0.9%.

JSA Only Claimant Duration (The New Claimant Count data that includes some Universal Credit claimants is not currently available by duration and occupation)

The number of long term unemployed benefit claimants (claiming over 12 months) is 1,770 for April 2016, and down by 560 compared to April 2015. The median duration in weeks that all claimants spent on JSA (only) for April 2016 is 16.0 weeks. This is 2.1 weeks more time spent on JSA (only) than the 13.9 weeks recorded in April 2015.

DWP Worklessness November 2015 (next update is Aug 2016 for Feb 2016 statistics)

The Hampshire Economic Area worklessness number stood at 71,410 for November 2015, a decrease of 3,250 on November 2014. The worklessness rate is 6.3%, and down by 0.3 of a percentage point on the year. This compares to the national rate of 9.0%. The annual decrease in worklessness claimants is mostly be attributed to 2,400 fewer JSA claimants. However, ESA claimants rose by 570 on the year to 50,490.

Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET) aged 16-18yrs

The March 2016 monthly NEET percentage for the Hampshire County Council area is 3.2%.

Local Commentary

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Job Creation and Planned Developments

Upham Group is planning to raise up to £12m in a flotation on Aim to fund the expansion of its chain of 15 pubs in Hampshire, Berkshire and Surrey to 30 by 2021. [26-Apr-2016]

Bericote Properties has won approval from Test Valley Borough Council to build three warehouses at Alpha Park in Hampshire, which could create 180 jobs. [18-Apr-2016]

Relocations, Mergers and Acquisitions Carole Nash is to acquire the 20,000-strong motorcycle insurance book of Hampshire-based Ageas

Retail. [12-May-2016] Shire is to relocate its Basingstoke-based pharmaceuticals business to new offices in London and

Dublin by 2018, casting doubt on the future of 270 jobs. [27-Apr-2016] Cascade HR has acquired Octopus, the Hampshire-based software firm, for undisclosed terms. [21-

Apr-2016] Job Losses and Closures Coopervision has closed its contact lens factory in Fareham, with the loss of 43 jobs and the

relocation of more than 130 staff to its site in Hamble. [10-May-2016] Bellows Direct Food Services has gone into administration through Quantuma, with the loss of 18

jobs at its Hampshire-based fresh produce delivery business. [28-Apr-2016] GKN is to shed up to 30 jobs at its aerospace engineering operations in Filton and Cowes. [18-Apr-

2016] Source: Activity UK Activity reported between April 2016 and May 2016

Local Business News

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The International Labour Organisation’s (ILO) definitions are the Government’s preferred measure of labour market statistics, and taken as an estimate from the Labour Force Survey. A person is deemed to be unemployed if they are aged 16 and over who are without a job, want a job, have actively sought work in the last four weeks and are available to start work in the next two weeks; or are out of work, have found a job and are waiting to start it in the next two weeks. The Annual Population Survey modelled data for unemployment are used for the nearest equivalent ILO estimates for Local Authorities, although the two are not directly comparable. The ILO differs to the JSA claimant data, which is an actual count of those aged 16+ who are eligible and signed on as actively seeking work.

ILO Unemployment as percentage of economically-active population (seasonally adjusted) Jan 2016 – Mar 2016

Male Female Total Change On The Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Quarter Year

South East region 93,000 3.7 83,000 3.8 176,000 3.7 -4,000 -22,000

United Kingdom 917,000 5.2 775,000 5.0 1,692,000 5.1 -3,000 -139,000 Source: Labour Force Survey. Estimates are taken from a three quarter rolling average with seasonal adjustments. Quarter difference compared to previous non-overlapping three month quarter average. Change on year refers to the same quarter period from the previous year.

Nearest Equivalent ILO Labour Market Indicators (next update July 2016)

12 months to Dec 2015

Labour Supply Labour Demand Employment Modelled Unemployment Economic Inactivity Jobs 2014 Total 000’s % Total

000’s %a %b Total 000’s % Total

000’s Density

Hampshire (CC) 702 81.0 29 3.6 3.2 130 15.8 697 0.85

Basingstoke & Deane 94 81.8 4 3.7 3.6 16 14.6 88 0.80

East Hampshire 58 75.0 2 3.3 6.3 14 18.7 56 0.79

Eastleigh 72 84.7 2 2.9 1.7 11 13.6 67 0.83

Fareham 60 79.3 2 3.5 5.3 11 15.4 59 0.85

Gosport 42 78.5 2 4.7 4.9 9 16.6 27 0.51

Hart 49 84.1 1 2.5 0.6 9 15.3 51 0.89

Havant 56 75.0 3 5.6 3.2 16 21.8 54 0.74

New Forest 86 77.8 3 3.4 3.6 19 18.6 80 0.79

Rushmoor 57 89.2 2 3.5 3.4 5 7.4 54 0.85

Test Valley 61 80.4 2 2.9 1.9 13 17.7 70 0.96

Winchester 66 86.2 2 2.4 0.9 10 12.9 92 1.26

Portsmouth 100 70.7 7 6.2 4.3 35 25.0 122 0.86

Southampton 131 76.3 8 5.4 4.7 32 19.0 131 0.78

Hampshire (HEA) 933 75.3 39 4.0 4.4 197 20.3 951

Isle of Wight 60 72.2 3 5.2 3.8 19 24.0 59 0.74

South East region* 4,417 76.9 192 4.2 3.4 1,078 19.7 4,678 0.85

United Kingdom* 31,071 73.5 1,724 5.3 4.2 9,099 22.3 33,469 0.82 Source: ONS Modelled Unemployment/Annual Population Survey. Totals represent '000s. Data are not seasonally adjusted.‘a’ Unemployment rate using 16+ population. ‘b’ Unemployed rate derived from Employed and Economically Inactive rates *Data from APS. **HEA unemployed rates are derived by aggregating from the ONS model based unemployment data and the latest APS 16+ unemployment denominator. The Modelled count and rate will be different (and lower) to the APS count and rate.

National and Regional ILO Labour Market with Local ILO Nearest Equivalents

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The Office for National Statistics produces adjustments to take account of seasonal variations in demand for labour, but only at the national and regional level. This measure is commonly quoted by the national media. The second set are seasonally unadjusted claimant count published at the local level. This local measure is most commonly used by local authorities as the more timely, but narrower measure of unemployment. Seasonally adjusted National and Regional Claimant Counts 18+ Number* and % working age** (experimental) April 2016 Male Female Total Change On The

Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Quarter Year South East region 34,953 1.3 21,331 0.8 56,284 1.0 703 -3,772

United Kingdom 467,277 2.3 270,490 1.3 737,767 1.8 -2,365 -57,627

Source: ONS. *ONS First Release JSA seasonally adjusted + Universal Credit seasonally adjusted. **ONS First Release use Jobseeker's Allowance + out-of-work Universal Credit + Workforce jobs as the denominator.

The Universal Credit (UC), a single payment for people who are looking for work or are on a low income, was first piloted in 2013, and then rolled out in phases nationally to Jobcentre Plus offices (JCPs). Local JCPs in Hampshire started to go ‘live’ in April 2015 (Southampton), while all of Hampshire’s JCPs are scheduled to go ‘live’ by April 2016. In light of the number of JCPs recording ‘live’ Universal Credit data, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published the new experimental Claimant Counts on 11 November 2015. This data records eligible persons claiming Jobseeker's Allowance plus new or transferred claimants who are out of work and claiming Universal Credit. The ONS called the new dataset the Claimant Count. The previous claimant counts based only on JSA are still collected and published, but referred to as the Jobseekers Allowance. Users need to be aware of these differences. The ONS decided to replace the number of people claiming only Jobseeker's Allowance as the headline indicator for the number of people claiming benefits, principally for the reason of being unemployed, and use the new Claimant Count as the headline i.e. JSA + Universal Credit. This changes will impact on those areas where Universal Credit data has already gone ‘live’. Locally, this will be in Southampton and Eastleigh, where collection has taken place over a longer period. For other areas, there will be no immediate or noticeable difference between the ‘old’ JSA and the new claimant count. Eventually, all unemployed claimants will be transferred to the Universal Credit. The new Claimant Count dataset does not currently publish claimants by duration or sought occupation. The two tables in the Labour Market Bulletin that captures this data will continue to be published, but using the JSA only data i.e. it will not include any new Universal Credit (UC) claimants.

Seasonally and Non-Seasonally adjusted Claimant Count Trends

New (experimental) Claimant Count and Jobseekers Allowance Only Local Data

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Seasonally unadjusted Claimant Counts Apr 2016 Male Female Total Total Change on the

Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Month Year Hampshire CC 3,855 0.9 2,335 0.6 6,190 0.8 -340 -540 Basingstoke & Deane 545 1.0 345 0.6 890 0.8 -25 10 East Hampshire 260 0.8 165 0.5 425 0.6 -5 20 Eastleigh 360 0.9 185 0.5 550 0.7 -10 -25 Fareham 285 0.8 170 0.5 455 0.7 -30 -30 Gosport 350 1.3 215 0.8 560 1.1 -55 -210 Hart 150 0.5 90 0.3 240 0.4 0 -25 Havant 675 1.9 395 1.1 1,065 1.5 -110 -130 New Forest 415 0.8 250 0.5 665 0.7 -45 -40 Rushmoor 325 1.0 205 0.7 530 0.8 -40 -90 Test Valley 245 0.7 165 0.4 410 0.6 5 -25 Winchester 245 0.7 155 0.4 400 0.5 -25 5 Portsmouth 1,365 1.9 705 1.0 2,070 1.5 -140 -470 Southampton 1,705 1.9 855 1.1 2,560 1.5 -60 120 Hampshire (HEA) 6,925 1.2 3,895 0.7 10,820 1.0 -535 -890 Isle of Wight 985 2.5 450 1.1 1,435 1.8 -215 -80 Enterprise M3 LEP 3,820 0.8 2,435 0.5 6,255 0.6 -280 -430 Solent LEP 6,890 1.4 3,705 0.8 10,595 1.1 -690 -865 South East region* 37,525 1.4 21,915 0.8 59,440 1.1 -1,715 -4,170 Great Britain 468,060 2.4 264,775 1.3 732,835 1.8 -19,275 -52,010 United Kingdom 494,235 2.4 276,095 1.3 770,330 1.9 -20,790 -58,685 Source: ONS.

Claimant Counts Relative to the UK and South East region (April 2016)

New Claimant Counts and Change on Month and Year

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Total Claimant Count Number change on previous month

Source: ONS

Total Claimant Count Number Annual Change

Source: ONS The ONS monthly claimant count numbers at this geographic level are seasonally unadjusted i.e. do not factor in naturally occurring underlying cycles in seasonal demand for labour. To compare on a like-for-like basis to the same period in the previous year should be looked at to gauge if unemployment is better or worse. At the national and regional level ONS produce seasonally adjusted JSA that take account of seasonal variations, although these are not comparable to the local data (see page 8).

Solent (LEP), -690Enterprise M3 (LEP), -280

Isle of Wight, -215Hampshire (HEA), -535

Hampshire (HCC), -340Southampton, -60

Portsmouth, -140Winchester, -25

Test Valley, 5Rushmoor, -40

New Forest, -45Havant, -110

Hart, 0

Gosport, -55Fareham, -30

Eastleigh, -10East Hampshire, -5

Basingstoke & Deane, -25

-800 -700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200

April 2016 unemployment claimant count (JSA+UC) change on March 2016

Solent (LEP), -865Enterprise M3 (LEP), -430

Isle of Wight, -80Hampshire (HEA), -890

Hampshire (HCC), -540Southampton, 120

Portsmouth, -470Winchester, 5

Test Valley, -25Rushmoor, -90

New Forest, -40Havant, -130

Hart, -25Gosport, -210

Fareham, -30Eastleigh, -25

East Hampshire, 20Basingstoke & Deane, 10

-1,400 -1,200 -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400

April 2016 unemployment benefit claimant count (JSA+UC) change on April 2015

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UK ILO Unemployment - seasonally adjusted Jan 2016 to Mar 2016

Male Female Total Change On The Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Quarter Year

16-17 years 71,000 28.9 59,000 22.9 97,000 25.8 -3,000 -17,000 16-24 years 355,000 14.8 277,000 12.5 631,000 13.7 -6,000 -102,000 Source: Labour Force Survey. Rates are based on all persons of the relevant age group who are economically active. The 16-17 age group has a much higher relative unemployment rate as the majority of persons in this age group would be economically inactive and in full-time education.

Nearest Equivalent ILO Unemployment (16-24yrs) – seasonally unadjusted (update July 2016). 12 months to Dec 2015

Total Change On Year Number Rate Number Rate (ppts)

Hampshire (CC) 9,600 9.4 2,000 0.9

Portsmouth 1,900 12.1 -1,500 -5.4 Southampton 4,100 15.4 200 -2.4

Hampshire (HEA) 15,600 10.8 700 -0.6

Isle of Wight 1,100 11.2 -1,100 -10.1

Enterprise M3 LEP 9,200 8.7 -2,100 -1.4 Solent LEP 15,100 12.5 200 -0.7 South East region 77,000 12.6 -3,700 -1.4 Great Britain 630,200 14.3 -114,700 -2.8 United Kingdom 651,200 14.4 -114,600 -2.8 Source: Annual Population Survey PPTS (Percentage points)

Seasonally unadjusted New Claimants Counts (16-24yrs) – The more up to date, but much narrower definition of youth unemployment.

Apr 2016 Male Female Total Total Change on the Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Month Year

Hampshire CC 745 1.1 435 0.7 1,180 0.9 -135 -250

Basingstoke & Deane 85 1.0 40 0.5 125 0.8 -15 -25 East Hampshire 45 0.8 25 0.5 70 0.6 -10 -5 Eastleigh 80 1.2 35 0.6 115 0.9 0 15 Fareham 55 0.9 45 0.9 95 0.8 -5 -15 Gosport 90 1.9 45 1.1 135 1.5 -10 -65 Hart 15 0.3 10 0.3 25 0.3 0 -20 Havant 160 2.4 95 1.5 255 2.0 -60 -60 New Forest 90 1.1 40 0.5 125 0.8 -30 -50 Rushmoor 55 1.0 50 1.0 100 0.9 -10 -20 Test Valley 45 0.8 35 0.6 80 0.7 5 10 Winchester 35 0.5 20 0.3 55 0.4 0 -20 Portsmouth 235 1.2 115 0.7 355 1.0 -15 -150 Southampton 335 1.4 185 0.8 520 1.1 -25 5

Hampshire (HEA) 1,315 1.2 735 0.7 2,050 0.9 -180 -400

Isle of Wight 225 3.2 90 1.4 315 2.4 -65 -50 Enterprise M3 LEP 605 0.7 345 0.4 950 0.6 -110 -215 Solent LEP 1,385 1.3 730 0.7 2,115 1.0 -220 -385 South East region 7,365 1.5 4,010 0.8 11,375 1.2 -615 -1,980 Great Britain 98,750 2.7 54,030 1.5 152,780 2.1 -8,025 -24,580 United Kingdom 105,250 2.8 56,795 1.6 162,045 2.2 -8,710 -25,895 Source: ONS. Numbers rounded to nearest 5.

Young People (16-24) ILO unemployment and New Claimant Counts

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UK ILO Unemployment - seasonally adjusted Jan 2016 to Mar 2016

Male Female Total Change On The Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Quarter Year

18-24 years 283,000 13.1 218,000 11.1 501,000 12.2 -7,000 -84,000 Source: Labour Force Survey. Rates are based on all persons of the relevant age group who are economically active. The 16-17 age group has a much higher relative unemployment rate as the majority of persons in this age group would be economically inactive and in full-time education.

There is no 18-24 APS Unemployment by age category to give a nearest equivalent.

Seasonally unadjusted New Claimant Counts (18-24yrs) - The more up to date, but much narrower definition of unemployment Few 16 or 17 year olds are eligible to claim JSA, so the 18-24 year measure is often used as an alternative.

Apr 2016 Male Female Total Total Change on the Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Month Year

Hampshire CC 740 1.4 430 0.9 1,170 1.2 -135 -255

Basingstoke & Deane 85 1.4 40 0.7 125 1.0 -15 -25 East Hampshire 45 1.0 25 0.6 70 0.9 -5 -5 Eastleigh 80 1.6 35 0.7 115 1.2 0 15 Fareham 55 1.2 45 1.2 95 1.1 -5 -15 Gosport 90 2.4 45 1.4 135 1.9 -10 -65 Hart 15 0.5 10 0.4 25 0.4 0 -20 Havant 155 3.0 95 2.0 250 2.5 -60 -65 New Forest 90 1.5 35 0.6 125 1.1 -25 -50 Rushmoor 55 1.2 50 1.3 100 1.2 -10 -20 Test Valley 40 0.9 35 0.9 75 0.9 0 5 Winchester 30 0.6 20 0.3 55 0.5 0 -20 Portsmouth 235 1.4 115 0.8 350 1.1 -20 -150 Southampton 335 1.5 180 0.9 515 1.2 -30 5

Hampshire (HEA) 1,310 1.4 725 0.9 2,035 1.2 -180 -400

Isle of Wight 225 4.3 90 1.9 315 3.2 -60 -50 Enterprise M3 LEP 595 0.9 345 0.5 940 0.7 -110 -210 Solent LEP 1,380 1.7 720 1.0 2,100 1.3 -220 -390 South East region 7,330 1.9 3,980 1.1 11,310 1.5 -610 -1,935 Great Britain 98,355 3.4 53,645 1.9 152,000 2.7 -7,990 -24,430 United Kingdom 104,850 3.5 56,400 2.0 161,250 2.7 -8,675 -25,740 Source: ONS. Numbers rounded to nearest 5. The 18-24 year old claimant count is sometimes preferred over the 16-24 age group as few 16 and 17 year olds are eligible to claim JSA or Universal Credit, with the majority of 16-24yr old claimants falling within the 18-24 broad age group.

Young People (18-24) ILO unemployment and New Claimant Counts

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Nearest Equivalent ILO Unemployment (25-49yrs) – seasonally unadjusted (update July 2016) 12 months to Dec 2015

Total Change On Year Number Rate Number Rate (ppts)

Hampshire (CC) 11,600 3.0 2,600 0.7

Portsmouth 3,000 4.8 -100 -0.2 Southampton 3,200 3.9 -300 -0.7

Hampshire (HEA) 17,800 3.4 2,300 0.4

Isle of Wight 1,500 5.0 -300 -1.0

Enterprise M3 LEP 14,400 3.0 -1,400 -0.3 Solent LEP 15,200 3.4 2,200 0.4 South East region 78,300 3.1 -14,400 -0.5 Great Britain 734,000 4.1 -153,100 -0.8 United Kingdom 755,600 4.1 -157,200 -0.8 Source: Annual Population Survey PPTS (Percentage points) Seasonally unadjusted Claimant Count (25-49yrs) - The more up to date, but narrower definition of unemployment

Apr 2016 Male Female Total Total Change on the Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Month Year

Hampshire CC 1,905 0.9 1,225 0.6 3,130 0.7 -180 -435

Basingstoke & Deane 290 1.0 210 0.7 500 0.8 -15 15 East Hampshire 120 0.7 85 0.5 205 0.6 5 -5 Eastleigh 170 0.8 95 0.4 270 0.6 -5 -45 Fareham 145 0.9 85 0.5 225 0.6 -25 -40 Gosport 165 1.2 105 0.8 275 1.0 -55 -125 Hart 85 0.5 45 0.3 130 0.4 10 -10 Havant 325 1.9 185 1.0 510 1.4 -40 -95 New Forest 190 0.8 135 0.5 320 0.7 -20 -20 Rushmoor 175 0.9 105 0.6 280 0.8 -15 -50 Test Valley 105 0.6 80 0.4 190 0.5 -5 -65 Winchester 130 0.8 90 0.5 220 0.6 -20 5 Portsmouth 770 2.1 425 1.2 1,190 1.6 -100 -275 Southampton 940 2.1 495 1.2 1,435 1.7 -40 65

Hampshire (HEA) 3,615 1.2 2,145 0.7 5,755 1.0 -320 -650

Isle of Wight 495 2.6 220 1.1 715 1.9 -120 -90 Enterprise M3 LEP 1,940 0.7 1,365 0.5 3,300 0.6 -135 -325 Solent LEP 3,555 1.4 2,005 0.8 5,560 1.1 -415 -690 South East region 19,850 1.4 12,110 0.8 31,960 1.1 -1,010 -2,805 Great Britain 256,800 2.4 148,520 1.4 405,315 1.9 -10,300 -35,300 United Kingdom 270,800 2.5 154,095 1.4 424,900 1.9 -11,025 -39,405 Source: ONS. Numbers rounded to nearest 5.

Younger Working Age (25-49yrs) ILO unemployment and New Claimant Count

Page | 14

Nearest Equivalent ILO Unemployment (50-64yrs) – seasonally unadjusted (update July 2016) 12 months to Dec 2015

Total Change On Year Number Rate Number Rate (ppts)

Hampshire (CC) 5,400 2.6 1,500 0.6

Portsmouth 1,000 4.0 400 1.5 Southampton 700 2.4 -300 -1.4

Hampshire (HEA) 7,100 2.7 1,700 0.5

Isle of Wight ~ 2.1 na -2.3

Enterprise M3 LEP 6,800 2.7 0 -0.2 Solent LEP 6,800 2.9 1,900 0.7 South East region 35,000 2.8 -4,700 -0.5 Great Britain 288,100 3.5 -27,200 -0.4 United Kingdom 297,900 3.5 -26,200 -0.4 Source: Annual Population Survey. ~ less than 500. PPTS (Percentage points) Seasonally unadjusted Claimant Count (50-64yrs) - The more up to date, but narrower definition of unemployment

Apr 2016 Male Female Total Total Change on the Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Month Year

Hampshire CC 1,195 0.9 675 0.5 1,870 0.7 -25 140

Basingstoke & Deane 165 1.0 100 0.6 265 0.8 10 15 East Hampshire 95 0.8 50 0.4 145 0.6 -5 25 Eastleigh 110 0.9 50 0.4 160 0.6 -10 0 Fareham 90 0.8 45 0.4 130 0.6 -5 20 Gosport 90 1.1 60 0.7 155 1.0 15 -10 Hart 50 0.6 35 0.4 85 0.5 -5 5 Havant 190 1.6 115 0.9 300 1.2 -10 25 New Forest 140 0.8 75 0.4 215 0.6 0 25 Rushmoor 95 1.2 55 0.7 150 0.9 -15 -15 Test Valley 95 0.8 45 0.4 140 0.6 5 30 Winchester 80 0.7 40 0.3 125 0.5 -5 20 Portsmouth 360 2.2 165 1.0 525 1.6 -25 -40 Southampton 430 2.4 175 1.0 605 1.7 10 50

Hampshire (HEA) 1,985 1.2 1,015 0.6 3,000 0.9 -40 150

Isle of Wight 265 1.9 140 0.9 410 1.4 -25 65 Enterprise M3 LEP 1,275 0.8 725 0.5 2,000 0.6 -30 110 Solent LEP 1,940 1.3 970 0.6 2,910 0.9 -55 205 South East region 10,275 1.3 5,775 0.7 16,050 1.0 -50 615 Great Britain 111,990 2.0 61,955 1.1 173,945 1.5 -760 7,845 United Kingdom 117,510 2.0 64,870 1.1 182,380 1.5 -865 7,440 Source: ONS. Numbers rounded to nearest 5.

Older Working Age (50-64yrs) ILO unemployment and New Claimant Count

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Duration and Overall Median Duration

Apr 2016

Under 6 months 6 months to 12

months Over 12 months Median (weeks)

Apr 15

Median (weeks)

Apr16 Diff

(weeks) Number Change

(Apr 15) Number Change (Apr15) Number

Change (Apr15)

Hampshire CC 3,855 -785 840 -15 975 -260 12.7 15.0 2.3 Basingstoke & Deane 635 -10 105 -10 135 10 11.2 12.4 1.2 East Hampshire 265 -30 70 20 65 5 11.8 17.1 5.3 Eastleigh 285 -105 40 -25 85 -35 13.8 13.0 -0.8 Fareham 345 -20 50 -5 50 -10 10.7 12.1 1.4 Gosport 400 -145 75 -15 75 -60 12.1 12.8 0.7 Hart 170 -25 25 0 25 -25 9.8 12.2 2.4 Havant 650 -50 160 -25 235 -75 20.1 18.6 -1.5 New Forest 365 -140 100 5 95 -10 13.2 16.1 2.9 Rushmoor 315 -100 85 15 95 -35 12.9 17.6 4.7 Test Valley 200 -105 60 10 65 -15 10.9 18.0 7.1 Winchester 230 -50 70 15 50 -10 11.9 15.5 3.6 Portsmouth 1,325 -295 315 -5 390 -210 16.0 16.5 0.5 Southampton 1,200 -345 295 -40 405 -95 16.1 18.2 2.1 Hampshire (HEA) 6,380 -1,425 1,450 -60 1,770 -560 13.9 16.0 2.1 Isle of Wight 680 -205 280 50 285 -120 20.6 23.7 3.1 Enterprise M3 LEP 4,000 -665 850 -5 905 -250 12.4 14.8 2.4 Solent LEP 5,940 -1,495 1,510 -20 1,800 -635 15.5 17.6 2.1 South East 30,765 -9,925 8,545 -400 11,080 -2,670 16.3 19.0 2.7 Great Britain 325,020 -109,095 96,695 -15,260 160,030 -44,930 20.4 22.0 1.6 United Kingdom 341,200 -109,975 104,130 -18,085 173,690 -47,060 21.1 22.5 1.4 Source: ONS. Numbers rounded to nearest 5. Working age resident rates.

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Hampshire CC 450 585 50 100 355 125 100 2,940 155 805 B’stoke & Deane 40 90 15 20 65 15 15 425 20 160 East Hampshire 45 75 0 10 25 5 10 195 10 35 Eastleigh 40 40 5 15 45 10 5 170 10 70 Fareham 55 45 0 0 20 5 0 275 5 35 Gosport 30 45 0 5 10 5 5 310 5 135 Hart 30 30 5 10 20 5 5 95 5 20 Havant 55 35 5 10 40 35 25 640 60 140 New Forest 50 65 5 10 40 15 10 285 10 70 Rushmoor 35 90 5 10 40 10 10 205 15 75 Test Valley 30 35 5 10 30 5 5 165 5 40 Winchester 40 40 5 5 25 10 5 175 5 40 Portsmouth 95 50 15 15 140 60 25 1,275 50 305 Southampton 70 210 20 25 95 65 35 935 50 395 Hampshire (HEA) 615 850 80 140 590 250 155 5,150 260 1,505 Isle of Wight 40 30 10 15 50 50 25 805 35 185 Enterprise M3 LEP 615 815 65 120 395 115 90 2,825 110 610 Solent LEP 545 670 70 110 515 265 150 5,225 255 1,440 South East reg. 3,370 7,125 480 820 3,345 1,895 885 24,605 1,340 6,515 Great Britain 26,545 49,910 4,835 9,555 37,340 17,900 14,310 308,330 18,800 94,220

United Kingdom 26,560 50,560 5,890 11,600 40,435 23,355 17,220 316,120 23,105 104,170

Source: ONS. Numbers rounded to nearest 5.

JSA Only Claimants Duration on Benefit

Sought (Major) Occupations of JSA Only Claimants

Page | 16

Main Worklessness Measures (Hierarchical Counts*). Next update August 2016 (Feb 2016 data)

November 2015 Main Out of Work

Jobseekers Allowance ESA/IB Lone Parent

Other Income based

Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Number Rate Hampshire CC 44,640 5.4 5,690 0.7 32,110 3.9 5,660 0.7 1,190 0.1 B’stoke & Deane 5,780 5.3 710 0.6 4,120 3.7 800 0.7 150 0.1 East Hampshire 3,100 4.4 420 0.6 2,310 3.3 300 0.4 70 0.1 Eastleigh 3,840 4.7 380 0.5 2,860 3.5 490 0.6 100 0.1 Fareham 3,050 4.4 420 0.6 2,230 3.2 320 0.5 80 0.1 Gosport 4,220 8.1 560 1.1 2,940 5.6 610 1.2 110 0.2 Hart 1,750 3.0 230 0.4 1,250 2.2 240 0.4 30 0.1 Havant 6,640 9.2 1,090 1.5 4,410 6.1 970 1.3 170 0.2 New Forest 5,920 5.8 660 0.6 4,430 4.4 660 0.7 170 0.2 Rushmoor 3,860 6.1 550 0.9 2,660 4.2 510 0.8 140 0.2 Test Valley 3,470 4.8 370 0.5 2,570 3.5 450 0.6 80 0.1 Winchester 3,010 4.1 300 0.4 2,320 3.2 310 0.4 80 0.1 Portsmouth 12,320 8.7 1,950 1.4 8,120 5.8 1,900 1.3 350 0.3 Southampton 14,450 8.5 1,730 1.0 10,260 6.1 2,080 1.2 380 0.2 Hampshire (HEA) 71,410 6.3 9,370 0.8 50,490 4.5 9,640 0.9 1,920 0.2 Isle of Wight 8,680 10.8 1,640 2.0 5,900 7.3 890 1.1 250 0.3 Enterprise M3 LEP 47,810 4.7 5,690 0.6 34,710 3.4 6,220 0.6 1,190 0.1 Solent LEP 68,710 7.0 9,520 1.0 48,360 4.9 8,980 0.9 1,850 0.2 South East reg. 353,550 6.4 50,280 0.9 247,240 4.5 46,810 0.8 9,220 0.2 Great Britain 3,592,300 9.0 580,410 1.5 2,490,530 6.2 424,130 1.1 97,220 0.2 Source: Department for Work and Pensions *To avoid double counting the out-of-work benefit claimants are allocated to one benefit using a hierarchical system, so that a person claiming Employment Support Allowance (ESA) and Lone Parent benefits would be counted under ESA and so forth.

Working Age Out-of-Work Benefit Claimant Rates Relative to the GB and South East region

Quarter Worklessness Statistics

Page | 17

Ward (2015) Claimant Count Hotspots April 2016

Top and Bottom 25 Wards by New Claimant Count Number and Rate (April 2016)

25 Wards with highest JSA rate 25 Wards with lowest JSA rate

Ward 2014 District No. Rate Ward 2014 District No. Rate Ryde North East Isle of Wight 95 4.0 Valley Park Test Valley 15 0.3 Shanklin South Isle of Wight 65 3.4 Knellwood Rushmoor 15 0.3 Ryde South Isle of Wight 95 3.3 Fleet West Hart 15 0.3 Newport East Isle of Wight 65 3.2 Odiham Hart 15 0.3 Sandown South Isle of Wight 75 3.0 Yateley East Hart 15 0.3 Battins Havant 125 2.9 Hook Hart 20 0.3 Charles Dickens Portsmouth 375 2.9 Olivers Battery and Badger Farm Winchester 5 0.2 Ryde West Isle of Wight 60 2.8 Whiteley Winchester 5 0.2 Ryde North West Isle of Wight 55 2.7 Broughton and Stockbridge Test Valley 5 0.2 Bondfields Havant 115 2.7 Harewood Test Valley 5 0.2 Barncroft Havant 105 2.5 Over Wallop Test Valley 5 0.2 Warren Park Havant 120 2.5 Bransgore and Burley New Forest 5 0.2 Bitterne Southampton 225 2.5 Forest North West New Forest 5 0.2 Ryde East Isle of Wight 50 2.4 Hiltingbury West Eastleigh 5 0.2 Shanklin Central Isle of Wight 55 2.4 Alton Amery East Hampshire 5 0.2 Lake South Isle of Wight 35 2.3 Binsted and Bentley Test Valley 5 0.2 Ventnor East Isle of Wight 40 2.2 St Paul Winchester 10 0.2 Woolston Southampton 205 2.2 Sarisbury Fareham 10 0.2 Freshwater North Isle of Wight 25 2.1 Blackwater Test Valley 5 0.1 Newport North Isle of Wight 45 2.1 Ampfield and Braishfield Test Valley 0 0.0 Town Gosport 75 2.1 Sparsholt Winchester 0 ~ Redbridge Southampton 200 2.1 Downlands and Forest New Forest 0 ~ Nelson Portsmouth 205 2.1 Froxfield and Steep East Hampshire 0 ~ Bevois Southampton 295 2.1 Ropley and Tisted East Hampshire 0 ~ Lake North Isle of Wight 45 2.0 Sherborne St John Basingstoke & Deane 0 ~ Source: NOMIS. Ranked highest to lowest by Rate and then by Number. B&D Basingstoke & Deane..~ Not available. Numbers below 3 are shown as 0 in the raw data and are equal to either 0, 1 or 2 claimants. All data are rounded to the nearest 5 and may not precisely add to the sum of the number of people claiming JSA, published on Nomis, and the number of out-of-work people claiming Universal Credit, published by DWP, due to independent rounding..

Small Area Claimant Count Hotspots

Page | 18

There are several methods used to record young people who are considered to be not in education, employment or training. The three primary sources come from the annual Participation in Education, Training and Employment First Release, the Quarterly NEETS derived from the Labour Force Survey, and from local authority Client Caseload Information Systems (CCIS) as an annual adjusted average published by the Department for Education. Local Authority CCIS data is captured monthly. How to interpret the local monthly adjusted NEET data can be found on Page 20. The three sources are not comparable. The 2014 Annual Department for Education’s Statistical First Release (SFR): Participation in Education, Training and Employment by 16-18 Year Olds in England (Next update June 2016)

The primary source of national data on 16-18 year old NEETs. The latest annual rate for 16-18 year olds, at end 2014, was 7.3%, a fall of 0.4 percentage points from 7.7% at end of 2013.

Quarterly Labour Force Survey (DfE LFS Series Quarter 4, 2015)

16-18 NEET % Quarter 4: Oct-Dec 2015 Change on year (Oct-Dec 2014)

Percentage points England 6.6% -0.4 (7.0%) Source: Labour Force Survey LFS allows in-year estimates to be made of NEET. The quarterly LFS estimates cannot be directly compared with the headline Participation SFR series based on more detailed but less timely data.

Local NEET

DfE Annual Local Authority 16- 18-year olds Not in Education, Employment or Training (2014) 16-18 NEET Estimated NEET Estimated NEET %

Hampshire CC 1,780 4.3% Portsmouth CC 410 7.0% Southampton CC 330 4.8% Isle of Wight 180 4.0% South East region 11,530 4.2% Source: Department for Education. Published March 2015. The ‘local authority NEET figures’ provides an annual estimate, based on average figures for November 2013 to January 2014 each year.

Monthly Local Authorities’ Client Caseload Information System (CCIS) – March 2016 Local Education Authorities capture monthly NEET for the DfE. These are not comparable to the SFR or LFS series above. See Glossary for further guidance.

Adjusted 16-18yrs NEET Mar 2016 Same period previous year mar 2015)

Adj. NEET % Adj. NEET* EET Adj. NEET % Adj. NEET* EET

Hampshire (CC) 3.24% 1,279 38,181 4.45% 1,632 35,070 Basingstoke & Deane 4.04% 217 5,168 4.56% 237 4,958 East Hampshire 2.98% 103 3,371 5.77% 184 3,004 Eastleigh 3.07% 124 3,917 4.73% 177 3,567 Fareham 1.90% 66 3,393 2.39% 78 3,186 Gosport 2.84% 71 2,436 4.04% 97 2,305 Hart 1.98% 57 2,828 3.32% 88 2,559 Havant 4.70% 172 3,476 5.72% 194 3,196 New Forest 3.21% 152 4,603 4.32% 186 4,122 Rushmoor 4.67% 114 2,320 5.84% 122 1,966 Test Valley 3.37% 121 3,454 4.56% 153 3,201 Winchester 2.47% 81 3,215 3.85% 120 3,000 Isle of Wight 2.97% 128 4,186 4.72% 188 3,791 Source: Hampshire County Council. EET (Employment, Education or Training). *Figures are ‘adjusted’ NEET figures by academic age and based on residential postcode not location of educational setting. Adjusted District totals will not sum to Hampshire.

Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET)

Page | 19

Labour Force Survey (LFS)/Annual Population Survey (APS) definitions Economically Active: People aged 16 and over who are either in employment or unemployed. The Economically active rate is the percentage of people aged 16 and over who are economically active. Employment: People aged 16 or over who did paid work in the reference week (whether employed or self-employed); those who had a job that they were temporarily away from; those on government supported training and employment programmes; and those doing unpaid family work (a person who works without pay in an economic enterprise operated by a related person living in the same household). The rate is the percentage of total in employment of all people in the relevant age group. ILO Unemployment: All people aged 16 and over who are:

without a job, want a job, have actively sought work in the last four weeks and are available to start work in the next two

weeks; or are out of work, have found a job and are waiting to start it in the next two weeks.

The unemployment rate is the proportion of the economically active who are unemployed. Economically Inactive: People who are neither in employment nor unemployed. This group includes, for example,

those looking after the family and/or home Long term ill Students or retired.

The inactive rate is expressed as a percentage of the total population aged 16 and over, but can be calculated for an population group, such as those of working age. Department for Work and Pensions definitions (New) Claimant Count: Based on the administrative records of people claiming unemployed benefits. Since November 2015 this has been the number of people previously claiming Jobseeker's Allowance (JSA) and new or transferred unemployed claimants on Universal Credit. The claimant count consists of all people claiming JSA+UC at Jobcentre Plus local offices. They must declare that they are out of work, capable of, available for and actively seeking work during the week in which their claim is made. Nationally and regionally, the claimant rate is the number of claimants resident in an area expressed as a percentage of the sum of claimants and workforce jobs in the area (mid-year estimates are used). Sub-regionally, the claimant count is the number of claimants resident in an area expressed as a proportion of the resident population of working age. As at August 2010 working age is now 16-64 for both females and males. Worklessness: Benefits that are paid to client groups subject to labour market activation policies, including: Jobseeker's Allowance (JSA); Employment Support Allowance (ESA) or Incapacity Benefit (IB); Lone parent; and Income support (IS). Sought occupations: are the types of occupations claimants are seeking when they register.

Glossary

Page | 20

Interpreting Local adjusted NEET data

Local NEET data follows a common pattern over the course of an academic year, with spikes occurring naturally each September. Young people are in transition over this period and school/college destination records not returned and recorded until October. Thereafter, rates and levels are fairly stable to August. The NEET data are adjusted to include an estimate of unknowns, where contact has not be established, and where a proportion are classed as NEET. As such, NEET levels and rates should only be compared with a degree of caution to the same month from the previous year. Geography Hampshire (HCC) refers to the County Council area only. The Hampshire Economic Area (HEA) includes Hampshire County Council, Portsmouth City Council and Southampton City Council. Using the ONS definition as at January 2013: The Enterprise M3 LEP covers: New Forest, Test Valley, Winchester, East Hampshire, Basingstoke and Deane, Hart, Rushmoor, Guildford, Surrey Heath, Waverley and Woking. The Solent LEP covers the New Forest, Test Valley, Winchester, Southampton, Eastleigh, Fareham, Gosport, Portsmouth, East Hampshire, Havant and the Isle of Wight. Four Hampshire districts overlap with Solent: New Forest, East Hampshire, Test Valley and Winchester. The ONS LEP definitions may differ to definitions being used locally and based on other geographies. This publication is produced by Social and Economic Research (SER), Hampshire County Council. For further information on the bulletin or to subscribe please contact Gareth Henry (Senior Research Officer) E-mail: gareth.henry@hants.gov.uk Telephone:01962 846791

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13

September peaks September peaks