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Hispanic Trends Project
The Nation’s Changing DemographicsMark Hugo LopezDirector of Hispanic Research
October 2014
Hispanics are the Nation’s Largest Minority
GroupPopulation in millions
The New Face of America
Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of the 2010 American Community Survey
68%11%
13%5%
Ages 25 or olderAsian
Hispanic
Black
White
The New Face of America
Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of the 2010 American Community Survey
57%14%
20%
5%
Ages 18-24
68%11%
13%5%
Ages 25 or olderAsian
Hispanic
Black
Asian
Hispanic
BlackWhite White
The New Face of America
Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of the 2010 American Community Survey
55%
14%
22%
4%
Ages 6-17Asian
Hispanic
Black White
The New Face of America
Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of the 2010 American Community Survey
51%
14%
25%
5%
Ages 0-5
55%
14%
22%
4%
Ages 6-17Asian
Hispanic
Black
Asian
Hispanic
Black White White
87% 85% 83% 80% 76%70% 67% 65% 60% 56% 52% 47%
10% 11% 11%12%
12%13% 13% 13%
13%13%
14%13%
13%
5%9%6%4%3%
16% 19%23% 26%
29%
14%
9%8%7%6%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
White* Black* Hispanic Asian*
Hispanic Share Rises to 29% by 2050
Source: Pew Research Center population estimates & projections (2008). *Not Hispanic.
Percent of Total Population
Four Decades of Growth
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
50.5
35
2215
4.0
57
128
105
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Middle "Baseline" Immigration
Hispanic Growth Likely to Continue
(Largest “Minority” Since ~2001)Population in millions
Geographic Distribution of Hispanics
Population in millions
Geographic Distribution of Hispanics
Population in millions
Hispanic Origin Composition, 2010
4%
34%
62%
13%
16%
65%
3% 21%
21%
12%
31%
39%
33%
16%
7% 78%
6%
9%
7%
27%
6%
54%
Atlanta
Los Angeles
New York
Washington
Miami
U.S.
Salvadoran Mexican Puerto Rican Cuban Dominican Other
Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations from the 2010 American Community Survey.
Hispanic Population is Younger
Native-Born Hispanics are Younger
Three Great Waves of Immigrants (% of total)
Notes: Immigrants from Canada and other areas not shown.Sources: Pew Research Center analysis of Integrated Public Use Microdata Samples for 1980,1990, and 2000 Censuses and 2008 American Community Survey. 1840-1919 numbers from Table 2 of Yearbook of Immigration Statistics,2008. Office of Immigration Statistics.
88
88
12
1
3
50
2
3
28
Northern Europe Wave,1840-1889
Southern/Eastern EuropeWave,1890-1919
Modern Wave,1965-Present
European Latin American Asian
(14 million)
(18 million)
(40 million+)
Where Each State’s Largest Immigrant Population Was Born, 1910
Where Each State’s Largest Immigrant Population Was Born, 2010
From Germany to Mexico, 1850 to 2010
The Share of U.S. Hispanics Who Are Foreign Born is in
Decline …
Source: Pew Research Center.
Unauthorizedimmigrant children0
10
20
30
40
50
60
38.7
47.554.0 55.0
49.8
28.335.7
40.1 39.835.5
%
All Hispan-ics
Hispanic adults
1980 1990 2000 2012
Sources of Hispanic Population Growth, by Decade
Source: Pew Research Center.
Unauthorizedimmigrant children
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
3.1
4.4
7.0
9.6
3.1
5.6
8.1
6.5
U.S. births Immigration
School Enrollments
Hispanic Student Enrollments
In 2012, 13 million young Latinos were enrolled in nursery school to high school public institutionsThat is up 58% from 2000 when 8.2 million Latinos were enrolledAmong 18-24 year olds, 2.4 million Latinos were enrolled in college full time, up 175% since 2000 when there were 873,000 Latino students in college full time.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Historical School Enrollment time series http://www.census.gov/hhes/school/data/cps/historical/index.html
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of the October 2012 Current Population Survey (CPS)
Racial and Ethnic Composition of Public Schools by Grade, 2012
(%)
All
Nursery school
KindergartenElementary
schoolHigh school
51.112821006
0594
44.912152269
399745.901194353
96351.568725933
366852.547121752
4198
24.986053669
3277
28.587115666
178627.388707926
167225.334003013
56123.134233316
3525
15.821871693
7578
18.887262079
06316.232356134
636315.345722417
545616.097809475
2929
8.0792536308
5506
7.6134699853
587110.477741585
23357.7515486355
26538.2208354559
3479
White Hispanic Black Other
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of the October Current Population Survey (CPS)
Growing Hispanic Representation in Public Schools and Colleges
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 20120
5
10
15
20
25 25
19Pre-K through 12th-grade public school enrollment, ages 3 and older
College enrollment, ages18-24
%Hispanic share of enrollment
Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2012 American Community Survey and the 2000 decennial census (1% IPUMS)
Hispanic Children Are a Growing Share of Public Kindergarten
ClassesStates where 20% or more of kindergartners are Hispanic
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of the October Current Population Survey (CPS)
College Enrollment Rates Among High School Completers
(% of 18- to 24-year-old high school completers)
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
454749
61.466
Black
Asian
White
Hispanic
2012
Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of the October 2013 Current Population Survey (CPS)
Hispanics Now Largest Minority Group at Colleges and
Universities(millions of 18- to 24-year-old students)
2-year college (community) 4-year college or university0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1.8
5.3
0.9 1.30.5
1.00.2
0.8
Hispanic Undergraduates are More Likely to Enroll at 2-year Institutions than Other
Groups
Pew Hispanic Center analysis of the October 2013 Current Population Survey (CPS)
Hisp White Black Asian
58%
74%69%
77%
42%
26%31%
23%
4-year college or university
Latino Youth are Optimistic…
50%
72%
45%
22% 4%
Most aresatisfied with
their lives
and mostexpect to be
better offfiancially than
parents
Source: 2009 National Survey of Latinos
Very Satisfied Mostly Satisfied
Better offAboutthe same
Lesswell off
Percent of Latino 16 to 25 year olds
…And They Say A College Education Is
Important
88%
74%
89%
82%
All Latinos ages 16and older
General populationages 16 and older
Latinos ages 16 to25
General populationages 16 to 25
In order to get ahead in life these days, it’s necessary to get a college education.
Percent who agree
Source: 2009 National Survey of Latinos for Latino sample; 2009 SDT America’s Changing Workforce Survey for general U.S. population
…Yet Educational Expectations Lag
48%
12%
6%
4%
22%18%
60%
4%
9%
5%
Bachelor's degree orhigher
Some college/2 years
Technical or tradeschool
Finish high school
No further
Latinos General population
How much further in school do you plan to go?
Among 18- to 25-year-olds
Source: 2009 National Survey of Latinos for Latino sample; 2007 Generation Next Survey for all youth sample
What's at Stake?
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, National Population Projections, Released 2008
58%
38%
20%
39%
15% 11%4% 6%
% of School-age Population
NH white Hispanic NH black NH asian
Hispanics Projected to be the Largest School-age Population by
2050
Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of October Current Population Surveys (CPS)
Hispanic Educational Attainment,1990 to 2013
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013
8.18.9
9.711.2
13.5
15.7
All Hispanics
(% of 25 to 29 year olds with bachelor’s degree or higher)
Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of October Current Population Surveys (CPS)
Hispanic Educational Attainment,1990 to 2013
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013
7.3 7.8 8.310.2 10.8
13.19.1
10.111
12.4
16.818.6
Hispanic Women
Hispanic Men
(% of 25- to- 29-year olds with bachelor’s degree or higher)
Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of the October 2013 Current Population Survey (CPS)
Educational Attainment of 25- to 29-year-olds, 2013
Hispanic NH White NH Black NH Asian
16
39
20
59
(% with bachelor’s degree or higher)
Why Not Continue Your Education?
74%
49%
42%
40%
39%
21%
Need to support family
English skills are limited
Didn't like school
Can't afford to go on in school
Don't need more education
Grades not high enough
Which of the following are reasons you have not continued your education?
Percent of Latino youth ages 16 to 25 with a high school diploma or less, who are not enrolled and have no plans to return to school saying “Yes”
Source: 2009 National Survey of Latinos
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Characteristics by Race and Ethnicity, 2011 and ANew Look at Long-term Labor Force Projections to 2050
Civilian Labor Force, 2011 and Projected 2050
Total Hispanic NH White Black Asian0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2011 2050(in thousands)
40-year Work-life Earnings by Education
for Hispanic Full-time, Full-year Workers
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Education and Synthetic Work-Life Earnings Estimates, September 2011
Male Female9 - 12th grade 1.1 0.8High School completer 1.3 1.0Some college 1.7 1.3Associate's degree 1.8 1.4Bachelor's degree 2.1 1.7Master's degree 2.8 2.3Professional degree 3.1 2.3Doctorate degree 3.1 2.6
In millions of $
Contact InformationMark Hugo LopezDirector of Hispanic [email protected]
Hispanic Trends Project