Holding 10,019 is key for the Dow this Week

8/9/2019 Holding 10,019 is key for the Dow this Week

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Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Princeton, NJ. ValuEngine

covers over 5,000 stocks every day.

A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks,and commentary can be found HERE.

July 19, 2010 Hold ing 10,019 is key for the Dow th is Week

The yield on the 10-Year is between my annual pivot at 2.999 and my annual risky level at 2.813where the decline in yields failed once before. Gold ended last week below $1200 as strengthlast week failed just below my semiannual pivot at $1218.7. Crude oil could not sustain gainsabove my annual pivot at $77.05 last week. Todays pivot for the euro is 1.2896. My annual pivotat 10,379 for the Dow proved to be resistance last week, and a close below this weeks pivot at10,019 would be a sign of vulnerability.

10-Year Note (2.941) Weekly and daily value levels are 3.013 and 3.091 with my annual pivot at2.999 and annual risky level at 2.813. Semiannual and quarterly value levels are 3.479 and 3.486 withquarterly and semiannual risky levels at 2.495 and 2.249. The low yield for the move was 2.879 seton July 1st, and was a failed test of my 2.999 and 2.813 annual risky levels.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold ($1192.9) My quarterly and annual value levels are $1140.9 and $1115.2 with daily andsemiannual pivots at $1211.6 and $1218.7, and semiannual, weekly and monthly risky levels at$1260.8, $1264.3 and $1279.3. The all time high of $1266.5 set on June 21stwas a test of Junesmonthly resistance, as a significant top for gold.


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Nymex Crude Oil ($75.90) Still influenced by my annual pivot at $77.05 with monthly, daily andweekly risky levels at $79.36, $79.72 and $79.87. My quarterly value level is $56.63 with semiannualrisky level at $83.94.


The Euro (1.2925) My weekly value level is 1.2366 with a daily pivot at 1.2896, and the 200-daysimple moving average at 1.3682. Monthly and quarterly value levels are 1.2035 and 1.1424 withsemiannual risky level at 1.4733.


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Daily Dow: (10,098) This weeks pivot is 10,019 with my annual pivot at 10,379, and semiannual, dailyand monthly risky levels at 10,558, 10669 and 10,891. My quarterly value level is 7,812 with my annualrisky level at 11,235, which was tested at the April 26th high at 11,258. This test marked the end of thebear market rally that began in March 2009. We are in the second leg of the multi-year bear market thatbegan in October 2007 targeting 8,500 before 11,500.



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Bank Failure Friday The FDIC closed six banks last Friday bringing the total for the month of July toten and 96 for the year. Month to date bank failures have drained the FDIC Deposit Insurance fund by$494.7 million brining the year to date today to $18.1 billion well $15.33 billion prepaid assessments for

all of 2010. I estimate that the DIF is now in arrears by $32.3 billion. Only 25 banks failed in 2008, as the FDIC was slow closing community and regional banks. There were 140 bank failures in 2009 with a peak of 50 in the third quarter. In the first quarter of 2010 there were 41 failures, in the second quarter there were 45 failures,

and so far 10 for the third quarter for a year to date total of 96. At this pace bank closures in 2010 will be within my 150 to 200 estimate range for 2010. Since the end of 2007, the FDIC has closed 261 banks on the way to my predicted 500 to

800 by the end of 2012 into 2013.

Two of the six bank failures last Friday were publicly-traded and both were on my List of ProblemBanks. All for banks including First National Bank of the South (FNSC) and MainStreet Savings

Bank (MSFN) had overexposures to C&D and / or CRE loans with loan pipelines that were 94.3% to100% funded.

If you want to know the 700 plus specific bank stocks that are vulnerable to failure over the next severalquarters you need to subscribe to the ValuEngine FDIC Report available at www.ValuEngine.com.

The FDIC used two publicly-traded banks as the consolidators of assets that are also overexposed toC&D and CRE loans.

Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK) ($35.79) has a C&D risk ratio of 183.2% and a CRE risk ratio of 395.2%versus the regulatory guidelines of 100% and 300% of risk based capital. OZRK has a real estate loanpipeline thats 82.2% funded. My quarterly value level is $30.03 with a weekly pivot at $35.98 and

monthly risky level at $43.05.



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CenterState Bank off Florida (CSFL) ($9.32) has a C&D risk ratio of 63.2% and a CRE risk ratio of319.2% versus the regulatory guidelines of 100% and 300% of risk based capital. There with theguideline for C&D and just over the guideline for CRE, so the FDIC found a Florida bank thats less

bad. CSFL has a real estate loan pipeline thats 77.4% funded, which illustrates some collectionissues. My semiannual value level is $5.46 with a weekly pivot at $9.69 and quarterly risky level at$12.01.


Thats todays Four in Four. Have a great day.

Richard SuttmeierChief Market Strategist

www.ValuEngine.com(800) 381-5576

As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. Ihave daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters aswell as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as theValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. I hope that you will go to www.ValuEngine.com and review some of the sampleissues of my research.

I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.

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Holding 10,019 is key for the Dow this Week