The Dow Held My Weekly Pivot at 10,019

8/9/2019 The Dow Held My Weekly Pivot at 10,019

1/4

Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Princeton, NJ. ValuEngine

covers over 5,000 stocks every day.

A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks,and commentary can be found HERE.

July 21, 2010 The Dow Held My Weekly Pivot at 10,019

The yield on the 10-Year note remains within the range of my annual pivot at 2.999 and myannual risky level at 2.813. Gold bounces off $1175 after strength last week failed just below mysemiannual pivot at $1218.7. Crude oil continues to yoyo around my annual pivot at $77.05. Theeuro is finding a barrier at 1.30. A daily close below my weekly pivot at 10,019 would be aproblem for stocks. More troubling housing and employment data! If you are in NYC on Monday,August 9th come to my presentation at Bloomberg Headquarters at 5:30 PM.

10-Year Note (2.937) My weekly value level is 3.013 with my annual pivot at 2.999 and annual riskylevel at 2.813. Semiannual and quarterly value levels are 3.479 and 3.486 with quarterly andsemiannual risky levels at 2.495 and 2.249. The low yield for the move was 2.879 set on July 1st,and was a failed test of my 2.999 and 2.813 annual risky levels.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold ($1192.0) My quarterly and annual value levels are $1140.9 and $1115.2 with daily andsemiannual pivots at $1201.0 and $1218.7, and semiannual, weekly and monthly risky levels at$1260.8, $1264.3 and $1279.3. The all time high of $1266.5 set on June 21stwas a test of Junesmonthly resistance, as a significant top for gold.


2/4


Nymex Crude Oil ($77.44) Still influenced by my annual pivot at $77.05 with monthly, and weeklyrisky levels at $79.36 and $79.87. My quarterly value level is $56.63 with semiannual risky level at$83.94.


The Euro (1.2884) My weekly value level is 1.2366 with a daily pivot at 1.2914, and the 200-daysimple moving average at 1.3664. Monthly and quarterly value levels are 1.2035 and 1.1424 withsemiannual risky level at 1.4733. Beware of a potential key reversal.


3/4


Daily Dow: (10,154) This weeks pivot is 10,019 with daily and annual pivots at 10,353 and 10,379,and semiannual and monthly risky levels at 10,558 and 10,891. My quarterly value level is 7,812 withmy annual risky level at 11,235, which was tested at the April 26th high at 11,258. This test marked theend of the bear market rally that began in March 2009. We are in the second leg of the multi-year bearmarket that began in October 2007 targeting 8,500 before 11,500. My zone of weekly pivots for the

Major equity averages have been magnets: 10,019 Dow, 1061.3 SPX, 2193 NASDAQ, 4163Transports, and 618.68 Russell 2000.



4/4

More Tough News for Housing - Housing Starts fell 5% in June led by a 21.5% decline in multifamilyunits started. Single-family housing starts were about unchanged for the month at an annual rate of454,000 units. Total production was at a 549,000 annual rate. This was actually followed by a decline inthe National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, which fell to 14 from 16 in July. It wasan opposite story for building permits, which rose 2.1% in June with permits for single-family homesdown 3.4%. The bottom line is housing activity continues to suffer.

The Obama Housing Program Loses Participants - The Obama Administrations program to helphomeowners refinance to a more affordable mortgage program has hit a snag. Last month 530,000mortgage borrowers dropped out of the program, which is more than 40% of the nearly 1.3 million whoenrolled since March 2009. This is a clear sign that another wave of foreclosures are on the horizon.The game changer seems to be that homeowners dropped out rather than provide proof of income,which is a direct link between having a job and owning a home. Borrowers complain about paperworksnafus saying that banks lost documentation. Many who get proposals for modifications from their bank

say thanks but no thanks; I still cant afford that monthly payment. To show how ineffective the programhas been the Government Accountability Office indicates that through mid-May only $132 millionincentive money has been given to more than 100 participating mortgage companies out of thepotential $75 billion allocated to the program.

Mixed Readings for Unemployment - The Unemployment Rate declined in 39 states in June becausemore people left the workforce unable to find a job. In June only 21 states saw actual job gainscompared to 41 in May. Businesses remain reluctant to hire even as the national unemployment ratefell to 9.5% from 9.7% as 650,000 potential workers left the labor force.

Richard Suttmeier Presentation Monday, August 9, 2010: I will be the speaker at the MarketTechnicians Association Meeting to be held at Bloomberg Headquarters at 5:30 PM on Monday,August 9, 2010.

Home Prices are Set to Fall to the Levels of 1999 / 2000 Community Banks remain Vulnerable for Failure US Stocks have begun the Second Leg of a Multi-Year Bear Market "Buy and Trade' Replaces "Buy and Hold"

To attend please reply to [email protected] and include: first and last name, company name,address, email and phone number so that you can be pre-registered into the Bloomberg securitysystems for this event.

Thats todays Four in Four. Have a great day.

Richard SuttmeierChief Market Strategistwww.ValuEngine.com(800) 381-5576

As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. Ihave daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters aswell as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as theValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. I hope that you will go to www.ValuEngine.com and review some of the sampleissues of my research.

I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.

Documents

The Dow Held My Weekly Pivot at 10,019