Honduras - ipcinfo.org · food insecurity in Honduras ipc acute food insecurity analysis november 2019 – June 2020 issued in December 2019 overview From November 2019 to February

Honduras nearly 1 million people in severe food insecurity in Honduras

ipc acute food insecurity analysis

november 2019 – June 2020 issued in December 2019

overview

From November 2019 to February 2020, about 962,000 people are in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or in more severe Phases and therefore require urgent action. This figure will likely increase to 1.22 million between March and June 2020. Until February 2020, the departments classified in IPC Phase 3 are El Paraíso, Francisco Morazán (except central district), Intibucá, La Paz, Copán, Choluteca and Valle. In the projection period, the departments of Comayagua, Lempira, Ocotepeque and Santa Bárbara have also been classified in IPC Phase 3. The population most affected consists mainly of subsistence farmers who have lost more than 50% of their basic grains and who are forced to use Crisis and Emergency coping strategies to bridge their food gaps, such as migration. In this group, food expenditures may represent more than 75% of total expenditures.

current acute food insecurity nov 2019 - feb 2020

projected acute food insecurity march - June 2020

current november 2019 - february 2020

0.96m18% of the population

People facing severe acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3+)

IN NEED OF URGENTACTION

phase 5 0people in catastrophe

phase 4 177,000people in emergency

phase 3 787,000people in crisis

phase 2 1,795,000people in stress

phase 1 2,362,000people minimally food insecure

proJected marcH - June 2020

1.22m24% of the population

People facing severe acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3+)

IN NEED OF URGENT ACTION

phase 5 0people in catastrophe

phase 4 258,000people in emergency

phase 3 963,000people in crisis

phase 2 1,844,000people in stress

phase 1 2,055,000people minimally food insecure

Key drivers

other factors Other factors are the rise in prices of basic grains, migration and the low yield of beans expected in the last cycle that could be affected by the cold fronts.

coffee pricesThe decrease in international coffee prices affects the income of coffee growers and consequently the families of cutters who work by the day as it forces the former to lower the price of labor or to do without it.

droughtIn the most affected areas, the prolonged drought has caused losses in the first crop of maize and beans, affecting the reserve of grains in households and access to the purchase of other foods.

1 - Minimal

2 - Stressed

3 - Crisis

4 - Emergency

5 - Famine

Areas with inadequate evidence

Areas not analysed

High

Evidence Level

***

(mapped Phase representshighest severity affecting atleast 20% of the population)

Based on the evidenceavailable, the analysis met the following evidence level

Key for the map ipc acute food insecurity phase classification

1 - Minimal

2 - Stressed

3 - Crisis

4 - Emergency

5 - Famine


Areas not analysed

HONDURAS | iPC ACUte fOOD iNSeCURity ANAlySiS 2

Thirteen departments of Honduran territory were analyzed, including 5.1 million inhabitants without considering the Central District. The context is characterized by prolonged drought, multidimensional poverty and limited coverage of social protection programmes and projects. The 2018 IPC chronic food insecurity analysis indicates that at least one million people in the analysed population are at Levels 3 and 4 (Moderate and Severe) of chronic food insecurity.

The analysis classifies in Phase 3 (Crisis) the departments of Valle, Choluteca, Francisco Morazán, El Paraíso, Copán, Intibucá and La Paz. The departments of Ocotepeque, Olancho and Yoro are in Phase 2 (Stressed. In total, the people in Phase 4 (Emergency) are about 177,000 (3% of the analysed population). In Phase 3 (Crisis) there are about 787,000 (15%).

The highest percentage of population in Phases 3 and 4 are in the department of Valle (30%) . After Valle, the highest percentages in Phases 3 and 4 are in the departments of Intibucá (26%) and La Paz and Choluteca (both with 25%). However, the largest number of people in Phases 3 and 4 are in Choluteca with about 117,000 people, followed by El Paraíso and Olancho with about 99,000 and 97,ooo people respectively.

The analysis shows that some of the households in Phase 3 and 4 show gaps in the consumption of food needed to meet their caloric intake needs. In terms of the Household Hunger Scale (HHS), households with moderate HHS or a more severe category are between 9 and 30% depending on the department considered. The departments with the worst food consumption according to this indicator are Choluteca, El Paraíso, Francisco Morazán, La Paz and Valle. However, some of these households are barely able to meet these needs or avoid major deficits, and only by depleting their assets and resorting to Crisis or Emergency coping strategies. In all the departments considered, according to the indicator of coping strategies related to livelihoods, households employing strategies considered Crisis or Emergency would be between 30 and 70%.

Available sources indicate that acute malnutrition values could be less than 5% and under-five mortality has historically been less than one death per ten thousand children per day.

Harvest losses and the consequent reduction in stocks of basic grains in the household, the tendency of prices of basic grains to increase, population movements between departments, the dengue epidemic, diarrheal diseases caused by the consumption of inadequately treated water, and the decrease in the demand for daily labour in coffee cultivation caused by the decrease in its price, are the factors that mostly determine food insecurity in the departments analysed. In the departments classified as Phase 3, access to food is considered a major limiting factor and, in the case of Copán, an extreme limiting factor; food availability has been considered a major limiting factor in Francisco Morazán, La Paz, Valle and Choluteca; food utilization appears as a major limiting factor only in Francisco Morazán and Intibucá.

The households most at risk of being in Phases 3 and 4 are those that generate their income mainly through day labour and subsistence farmers. These groups are the ones who generally spend a greater proportion of their income on food and make up the extreme poor in rural areas.

In the same period of 2018, the departments of Valle, La Paz, El Paraíso, Choluteca, Francisco Morazán and Copán were classified in Phase 2.

Humanitarian food aid ended in October and was not considered during this analysis period.

current situation overvieW (november 2019 – february 2020)


current ipc acute food insecurity situation (nov 2019 – feb 2020)

1 - Minimal

2 - Stressed

3 - Crisis

4 - Emergency

5 - Famine


Areas not analysed

High

Evidence Level

***




departments ruralpopulation

phase 1 phase 2 phase 3 phase 4 phase 5 area phase

phase 3 +

#people % #people % #people % #people % #people % #people %

Choluteca 469,848 234,924 50 117,462 25 93,969 20 23,492 5 0 0 3 117,461 25

Comayagua 562,033 196,711 35 281,016 50 73,064 13 11,240 2 0 0 2 84,304 15

Copán 406,965 203,482 50 113,950 28 73,253 18 16,278 4 0 0 3 89,531 22

El Paraíso 448,119 201,653 45 147,879 33 76,180 17 22,405 5 0 0 3 98,585 22

Francisco Morazán

389,704 144,190 37 159,778 41 66,249 17 19,485 5 0 0 3 85,734 22

Intibucá 260,344 88,516 34 104,137 40 52,068 20 15,620 6 0 0 3 67,688 26

La Paz 220,892 66,267 30 99,401 45 48,596 22 6,626 3 0 0 3 55,222 25

Lempira 357,783 189,624 53 118,068 33 35,778 10 14,311 4 0 0 2 50,089 14

Ocotepeque 162,638 81,319 50 60,176 37 16,263 10 4,879 3 0 0 2 21,142 13

Olancho 570,847 268,298 47 205,504 36 85,627 15 11,416 2 0 0 2 97,043 17

Santa Bárbara 462,774 273,036 59 111,065 24 69,416 15 9,255 2 0 0 2 78,671 17

Valle 187,460 84,357 45 46,865 25 46,865 25 9,373 5 0 0 3 56,238 30

Yoro 622,006 329,663 53 230,142 37 49,760 8 12,440 2 0 0 2 62,200 10

total 5,121,413 2,362,040 46 1,795,443 35 787,088 15 176,820 3 0 0 963,908 18

estimated population for the current period: november 2019 - february 2020


proJected situation overvieW (march – June 2020)

assumptions

• an increase in the trend of prices of basic grains, which could worsen crop losses and depletion of reserves

• a reduction of the international price of coffee that decreases the demand for day labour which means small producers will have less income

• limited availability and quality of water for human consumption

• an increase in the incidence of diarrheal diseases, dengue and possibly H1N1 influenza

All dimensions of food security (availability, access and utilization of food) are expected to deteriorate; food quality deficits could increase and possibly also appear in the quantities consumed. In several areas analyzed, households will likely be able to meet their food needs, but only marginally and by depleting their essential livelihood assets.

projections

All departments with the exception of Yoro and Olancho will likely be in Phase 3 (Crisis) during the projected period. In total, approximately 258,000 people (5% of the population) are expected to be in Phase 4 (Emergency) and 963,000 (19% of the population) are expected to be in Phase 3 (Crisis).

Valle and Choluteca will have the highest proportion of households in Phases 3 and 4, in both cases reaching 35% of the total. The departments with the largest population in Phases 3 and 4 will likely be Choluteca, Comayagua and Paradise with about 164,000, 135,000 and 125,000 people in Phases 3 and 4 respectively.


proJected ipc acute food insecurity situation (march - June 2020)

1 - Minimal

2 - Stressed

3 - Crisis

4 - Emergency

5 - Famine


Areas not analysed

High

Evidence Level

***




departments ruralpopulation

phase 1 phase 2 phase 3 phase 4 phase 5 area phase

phase 3 +

#people % #people % #people % #people % #people % #people %

Choluteca 469,848 164,446 35 140,954 30 117,462 25 46,984 10 0 0 3 164,446 35

Comayagua 562,033 168,609 30 258,535 46 118,026 21 16,860 3 0 0 3 134,886 24

Copán 406,965 174,994 43 130,228 32 81,393 20 20,348 5 0 0 3 101,741 25

El Paraíso 448,119 188,209 42 134,435 30 89,623 20 35,849 8 0 0 3 125,472 28

Francisco Morazán

389,704 140,293 36 155,881 40 74,043 19 19,485 5 0 0 3 93,528 24

Intibucá 260,344 88,516 34 85,913 33 65,086 25 20,827 8 0 0 3 85,913 33

La Paz 220,892 61,849 28 92,774 42 57,431 26 8,835 4 0 0 3 66,266 30

Lempira 357,783 168,158 47 114,490 32 53,667 15 21,466 6 0 0 3 75,133 21

Ocotepeque 162,638 69,934 43 60,176 37 26,022 16 6,505 4 0 0 3 32,527 20

Olancho 570,847 245,464 43 222,630 39 91,335 16 11,416 2 0 0 2 102,751 18

Santa Bárbara 462,774 198,992 43 152,715 33 92,554 20 18,510 4 0 0 3 111,064 24

Valle 187,460 74,984 40 46,865 25 46,865 25 18,746 10 0 0 3 65,611 35

Yoro 622,006 311,003 50 248,802 40 49,760 8 12,440 2 0 0 2 62,200 10

total 5,121,413 2,055,451 40 1,844,398 36 963,267 19 258271 5 0 0 1221538 24

estimated population for the projected period: march - June 2020


recommendations for action

What is the ipc and ipc acute food insecurity?

The IPC is a set of tools and procedures to classify the severity and characteristics of acute food and nutrition crises as well as chronic food insecurity based on international standards. The IPC consists of four mutually reinforcing functions, each with a set of specific protocols (tools and procedures). The core IPC parameters include consensus building, convergence of evidence, accountability, transparency and comparability. The IPC analysis aims at informing emergency response as well as medium and long-term food security policy and programming.

For the IPC, Acute Food Insecurity is defined as any manifestation of food insecurity found in a specified area at a specific point in time of a severity that threatens lives or livelihoods, or both, regardless of the causes, context or duration. It is highly susceptible to change and can occur and manifest in a population within a short amount of time, as a result of sudden changes or shocks that negatively impact on the determinants of food insecurity.

contact for further informationcáceres, roberto National Coordinator of IPC UTSAN / Honduras [email protected]

IPC Global Support Unit www.ipcinfo.org

PROGRESAN-SICA www.sica.int/san

This analysis has been conducted under the patronage of Technical Unit for Food and Nutritional Security – UTSAN - Honduras. It has benefited from the technical and financial support of the IPC GSU and PROGRESAN – SICA.

Classification of food insecurity and malnutrition was conducted using the IPC protocols, which are developed and implemented worldwide by the IPC Global Partnership - Action Against Hunger, CARE, CILSS, EC-JRC , FAO, FEWSNET, Global Food Security Cluster, Global Nutrition Cluster, IGAD, Oxfam, PROGRESAN-SICA, SADC, Save the Children, UNICEF and WFP.

response priorities

Populations and municipalities in which a greater proportion of households have exhausted their reserves and are employing Crisis and Emergency strategies should be identified and targeted. They should carry out interventions and strategic actions of food aid and other types that are defined in the Government Action Plans in coordination with national and international actors and institutions. Priority response objectives should be geared towards protecting livelihoods and reducing household food consumption gaps of those in Phases 3 and 4, and continue with actions for risk reduction and livelihood protection. Specific response actions will be defined with local, municipal and commonwealth actors; short-term programmes and projects.

situation monitoring and update

• Present the report to instances such as: the General Government Coordination, the National System of Risk Management – SINAGER, and subsequently to CONASAN.

• Present the report to cooperation entities and other entities linked to the response to face this situation of food insecurity in Honduras.

• It is recommended to improve the collection of data on indicators mainly of nutritional status and mortality. It is also recommended that UTSAN continue to implement the monitoring of nutritional food security indicators and strengthen SISESAN as the main national repository of sources and evidence to support other future analyses of IPC according to the seasonal calendar, as well as manage coverage and indicators as relevant to close data quality gaps and other gaps that were found during the analysis.

risk factors to monitor

Key risk factors that needed to be monitored: climate prospects, price trends, basic grain stocks (mainly maize and beans), interdepartmental mobilization, loss of agricultural jobs, and diarrheal and vector-borne diseases. The evolution of these factors could generate the need to update the analysis by the end of the first quarter of 2020.

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Honduras - ipcinfo.org · food insecurity in Honduras ipc acute food insecurity analysis november 2019 – June 2020 issued in December 2019 overview From November 2019 to February