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April 2014 Hotel Intelligence New York

Hotel Intelligence New York - Investment management Hotel Intelligence New York | April 2014 A top global hotel investment market In 2013, Manhattan hotel transaction volume declined

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Page 1: Hotel Intelligence New York - Investment management Hotel Intelligence New York | April 2014 A top global hotel investment market In 2013, Manhattan hotel transaction volume declined

April 2014

Hotel Intelligence New York

Page 2: Hotel Intelligence New York - Investment management Hotel Intelligence New York | April 2014 A top global hotel investment market In 2013, Manhattan hotel transaction volume declined

Market insight• Hotel transaction volume in Manhattan reached $1.8 billion

in 2013.

• Investment volume expected to increase to $2.7 to $2.8 billion in 2014 due to continued liquidity among Manhattan hotels as well as the increase in available product.

• Hotel demand is at all-time high; however, RevPAR growth will be more tepid in 2014 due to 6,400 additional rooms slated to enter the market.

JLL’s Hotels & Hospitality Group serves as the hospitality industry’s global leader in real estate services for luxury, upscale, select service and budget hotels; timeshare and fractional ownership properties; convention centers; mixed-use developments and other hospitality properties. The firm’s 300 dedicated hotel and hospitality experts partner with investors and owner/operators around the globe to support and shape investment strategies that deliver maximum value throughout the entire lifecycle of an asset. In the last five years, the team completed more transactions than any other hotels and hospitality real estate advisor in the world totaling nearly US $36 billion, while also completing approximately 4,000 advisory, valuation and asset management assignments. The group’s hotels and hospitality specialists provide independent and expert advice to clients, backed by industry-leading research.

For more news, videos and research from JLL’s Hotels & Hospitality Group, please visit: www.jll.com/hospitality or download the Hotels & Hospitality Group’s iPhone app or iPad app from the App Store.

Arthur Adler Managing Director and CEO-Americas [email protected]

Jeffrey Davis Managing Director [email protected]

Greg Hartmann Executive Vice President [email protected]

Gilda Perez-Alvarado Executive Vice President [email protected]

Edouard Schwob Vice President [email protected]

Neha Gandhi Associate [email protected]

Eric Gorenstein Analyst [email protected]

Contributors

Page 3: Hotel Intelligence New York - Investment management Hotel Intelligence New York | April 2014 A top global hotel investment market In 2013, Manhattan hotel transaction volume declined

April 2014 | Hotel Intelligence New York 3

$17 billion in hotel transactions since 2000

To summarize Manhattan hotel transaction volume in the early 2000s, from 2000 to 2003 transaction levels averaged approximately $300 million annually. Liquidity jumped to $1.8 billion in 2004 as RevPAR turned positive for the first time since 2000 and leverage started to expand. In 2005, deal volumes totaled $1.6 billion. Annual transaction volume in 2006 surged to $2.8 billion and reached $2.9 billion in 2007.

Transaction volume declined in 2008 and 2009 due to the economic downturn, with total volume decreasing to $500 million in 2009. However, liquidity returned in 2010, with investment volume increasing to $1.6 billion.

2011 marked the return of investors seeking to acquire assets priced below replacement cost. With debt becoming increasingly available for Manhattan deals, total investment volume boomed at $3.5 billion—an all-time high. In 2012, Manhattan hotel transaction volume moderated to levels consistent with the second and third most active years on record (2006 and 2007).

Manhattan was the most active hotel investment market nationally in 2013. With total hotel transaction volume of $1.8 billion in 2013, Manhattan liquidity outranked that of Oahu Island, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Boston and Washington, D.C. Globally, Manhattan was among the top-five hotel investment markets.

Transaction volume in Manhattan is expected to range from $2.7 to $2.8 billion in 2014, significantly above volumes observed in 2013.

The Manhattan hotel market is the strongest RevPAR performer among the top-25 U.S. hotel markets with a 25% RevPAR premium over the next highest market. In 2013, Manhattan’s upper-tier hotels posted a RevPAR increase of 4.3% over 2012 levels.1

Over 6,400 hotel rooms will be added to the Manhattan market in 2014, increasing the market’s room inventory by 8%. With close to 15,000 new rooms anticipated to enter the market between 2014 and 2016, Manhattan has more rooms under construction than any other U.S city.

Despite the robust supply pipeline, based on historical trends, these rooms are expected to be absorbed relatively quickly. The market’s upper-tier hotels are expected to achieve RevPAR growth of 3% to 3.5% in 2014, driven largely by rate growth.

Manhattan: most active U.S. hotel investment market

1Smith Travel Research

Manhattan Hotel Transaction Volume

Source: JLL

Transaction Volume $/sq. ft. Price per key

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

F

Transaction Volume ($M)

Price

per k

ey ($

thou

sand

s) an

d $/sq

. ft.

Page 4: Hotel Intelligence New York - Investment management Hotel Intelligence New York | April 2014 A top global hotel investment market In 2013, Manhattan hotel transaction volume declined

4 Hotel Intelligence New York | April 2014

A top global hotel investment market

In 2013, Manhattan hotel transaction volume declined from 2012 levels by 25%, largely due to the lack of quality product listed during the first half of the year. The delay in the closing of multiple large transactions, originally listed in 2013, also contributed to the reduced transaction volume figure.

Despite the decrease in transaction volume witnessed in 2013, the average transaction size of $153 million was nearly 20% above the average deal size of $131 million during 2012. The average price per key of $726,300 was 30% higher when compared to that of the previous year. Additionally, the average sales price per sq. ft. of $1,100 during 2013 was considerably higher than the average price per sq. ft. of $775 in 2012.

The composition of hotels that transacted in 2013 was the key driver influencing the increase in average sales price per sq. ft. For example, the sale of the Helmsley Park Lane was purchased for $1,600 per sq. ft. in late 2013, to be potentially converted to residential use. Since 2010, average sales price per room and per sq. ft. have increased at a compound annual growth rate of 26% and 14%, respectively.

Lack of quality product brought to market, in conjunction with the government sequester and weaker economic sentiment in Europe, contributed to temper investors’ appetite in 2013. Nevertheless, Manhattan remained one of the top investment markets in the world due to both the wide presence of foreign capital, which represented 15% of total investment volume in 2013, and the availability of debt for established investors.

During 2013, private equity firms were the most active buyers of Manhattan hotel assets, accounting for 43% of acquisitions by volume. This buyer type dominated acquisitions in 2013 with large

transactions such as the Witkoff Group’s purchase of the 596-room Helmsley Park Lane Hotel for $660 million, and the purchase of the 288-room Flatotel by affiliates of the Rockpoint Group, Atlas Capital Group and Procaccianti Group for $180 million.

Other large transactions that shaped the investment market include the sale of the 214-room former Setai Fifth Avenue for $229 million, which is now the Langham Place, and the 241-room Viceroy Willow Hotel transaction for $148.5 million. The 226-room Holiday Inn Manhattan was among the few midscale hotels that transacted in the city in 2013. At a price per room of $500,000, the trade was well above the price per room of similar select service trades in Manhattan during 2012 that ranged from $350,000 to $450,000 per key.

Finally, despite the limited availability of development sites for sale, the average price for land ranged from $250 to $400 per sq. ft. Prominent development sites that transacted include the sale of a former parking garage near to the Chelsea Flea market for $67 million as well as the sale of a former office building for $58 million, which is the site of the anticipated 140-room AKA Wall Street.

Manhattan acquisitions dominated by private equity and institutional investors in 2013

Source: JLL

Buyer Type % of acquisition value

Private equity 43%

Institutional investor 19%

Hotel owner/operator 16%

REIT 14%

Developer 8%

New York significant hotel transactions 2013

Source: JLL

Date Property Rooms Price Price / Room USD BuyerNov-13 Helmsley Park Lane 596 $660,000,000 $1,107,000 Witkoff Group Oct-13 The Mave 72 $28,500,000 $396,000 Assa PropertiesSep-13 Viceroy New York 241 $148,500,000 $616,000 American Realty Capital New York Recovery REITSep-13 The (Former) Setai Fifth Avenue 214 $229,000,000 $1,070,000 Great Eagle Holdings LimitedAug-13 Hotel East Houston 42 $18,500,000 $440,000 UndisclosedJun-13 Holiday Inn Manhattan 6th Avenue 226 $113,000,000 $500,000 Carey Watermark Apr-13 Hyatt Union Square 178 $101,000,000 $567,000 Hersha Hospitality TrustMar-13 James Hotel 114 $85,000,000 $746,000 PrudentialMar-13 Hyatt Place Midtown Manhattan 185 $76,200,000 $412,000 Chesapeake Lodging TrustJan-13 Flatotel 288 $180,000,000 $625,000 Joseph Chetrit and David BistricerJan-13 Alex Hotel 203 $115,000,000 $567,000 Wyndham Hotels and ResortsJan-13 Beekman Tower Hotel 170 $82,150,000 $483,000 Silverstein PropertiesTotal 2,529 $1,836,850,000 $726,315

Page 5: Hotel Intelligence New York - Investment management Hotel Intelligence New York | April 2014 A top global hotel investment market In 2013, Manhattan hotel transaction volume declined

April 2014 | Hotel Intelligence New York 5

Deal volume to total $2.7 to $2.8 billion in 2014

Given pent up demand from 2013 coupled with the availability of high-quality product and continued access to capital, deal volume is projected to increase in 2014. Private equity investors will continue to lead through their significant buying power. REITs, which represented 25% of investment volume in 2012, and 14% in 2013, will continue to make selective acquisitions of core properties during 2014 while also focusing on the asset management and disposition of owned properties.

Buyers from Asia and the Middle East will continue to target trophy and high-profile assets in Manhattan. In addition, several international brands are committing large amounts of capital to establish their presence in Manhattan.

Active sellers in 2014 are expected to include institutional funds, REITs, developers seeking liquidity, brands in cases where they can retain management contracts and investors seeking to exploit the improving transaction market and low cap rates.

Hotel debt capital markets continue to remain strong

With the influx of CMBS debt into hotel investments, a notable development in 2013, capital is pouring into the sector and the pool of lenders is broadening. New York’s hotel CMBS volume jumped to $1.1 billion in 2013, a 165% increase over the 2012 level.2

A significant portion of this uptick resulted from the re-emergence of the floating-rate CMBS market, which had been largely muted since the downturn. In the U.S., floating-rate hotel CMBS volume totaled $2.3 billion in 2013, compared to $1.2 billion in 2012, representing an 85% increase. In New York, floating-rate hotel CMBS volume totaled $215 million in 2013, compared to $75 million in 2012.3

In addition to being one of the few financing outlets for large balance financings, the floating-rate CMBS market is significant for hospitality: Firstly, the market provides relatively high leverage with attractive pricing compared to other floating-rate financing alternatives. Additionally, floating-rate CMBS loans are currently being originated at leverage levels as high as 80% of value. This compares to approximately 60% loan-to-value financing from bank lenders.

Secondly, the LIBOR index has a notable correlation with both U.S. GDP and RevPAR. As a result, the cost of floating-rate debt generally moves directionally with changes in RevPAR, making it an attractive hospitality financing vehicle.

Aside from CMBS debt, balance sheet lenders are also becoming more active. Across the spectrum of commercial banks, the spreads of debt funds, mortgage REITs, and life insurance companies continue to compress. Balance sheet lenders tend to be more selective with regard to asset quality and sponsorship, but they do provide floating-rate structures that are favored by hotel owners. The lenders are expected to continue favoring core markets.

New York is therefore expected to be at the forefront of financing options that will increase transaction volume in the market. Notable balance sheet loans originated on Manhattan hotels in 2013 include the Waldorf Astoria with a $525 million loan from HSBC and DekaBank, the Milford Plaza Leasehold with a $255 million loan from NorthStar Realty Finance, the Baccarat Hotel encompassing a $235 million loan from Bank of America, the Manhattan at Times Square Hotel with a $185 million loan from Wells Fargo and Blackstone and the Algonquin Hotel with a $45 million loan from Bank of China.4

We anticipate the debt markets to continue to improve, as more groups enter the market and drive greater competition. Furthermore, as the recovery deepens, lenders will have greater confidence lending to hotel investors, as most properties will have experienced positive year-over-year RevPAR metrics since 2010. All of these factors, combined with an improving economic outlook, should drive further spread compression in 2014.

2Trepp, LLC®3Trepp, LLC®4Transaction arranged by JLL

Page 6: Hotel Intelligence New York - Investment management Hotel Intelligence New York | April 2014 A top global hotel investment market In 2013, Manhattan hotel transaction volume declined

6 Hotel Intelligence New York | April 2014

New York key economic indicators

Source: IHS Global Insight

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F

Real gross metro product (% change) 3.6 1.1 1.4 2.4 2.0 2.6 2.9 2.7

Total employment (000s) 8,306 8,414 8,560 8,705 8,818 8,937 9,056 9,158

Total employment (% change) -0.1 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1

Unemployment rate (%) 9.0 8.6 8.8 8 7.1 6.7 6.1 5.6

Personal income (% change) 3.5 5.5 3.1 2.1 4.7 4.6 4.9 5.2

Population (000s) 18,944 19,068 19,173 19,273 19,365 19,447 19,513 19,560

Population (% change) 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2

U.S. economy

Real gross domestic product (% change) 2.5 1.8 2.8 1.9 2.7 3.2 3.4 3.2

Employment (% change) -0.7 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.7

New York’s economic recovery continues

Gross metro product is forecast to grow by 2% in 2014, followed by growth of 2.6% in 2015. Unemployment levels are expected to progressively decrease. New York will remain the country’s largest urban economic force, which bodes well for hotel demand.

Robust supply pipeline

There are approximately 84,000 existing hotel rooms in Manhattan, with an average hotel size of 240 rooms. From 2000 to 2008, the supply of hotels in Manhattan increased at an annual rate of 2%, in line with the long-term average for the U.S. Room stock remained mostly stable from 2000 to 2006, largely due to the conversion of several upper-tier properties to residential use.

Beginning in 2007, new room openings started to exceed the long-term average and select service hotel openings were particularly prevalent in Midtown West and Lower Manhattan, where barriers to entry were lower than in other areas of Manhattan. New openings peaked in 2010 when some 5,400 rooms entered the Manhattan supply.

Only 925 rooms entered the market in 2011, two years after the depth of the downturn, due to the lack of financing and stalled developments. At 1,370 new rooms, 2012 saw a 50% increase in the annual number of rooms added to the market with 1,320 new rooms, but the figure remained below the rate of openings observed during 2010. In 2013, another 4,200 new rooms entered the market.

For 2014, 2015 and 2016, the market will continue to experience elevated supply growth, with new openings concentrated in Downtown and Midtown submarkets with the majority of anticipated supply in the midscale and limited service categories. In the short term, RevPAR growth is expected to be tempered due to moderate ADR growth and stabilizing occupancy levels.

However, room night demand is at an all-time high, driven by both domestic and international visitors. Further putting Manhattan’s supply growth into perspective is that the rate of room additions from 2000 to 2016 is expected to average 2.7% per year, which is within one percentage of the long-term average annual supply growth in the U.S. as a whole.

Page 7: Hotel Intelligence New York - Investment management Hotel Intelligence New York | April 2014 A top global hotel investment market In 2013, Manhattan hotel transaction volume declined

April 2014 | Hotel Intelligence New York 7

Hotel supply in Manhattan 2000-2016F

Source: JLL

Neighborhood 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F

Downtown Hotels 14 11 12 12 11 11 12 13 16 18 25 24 26 27 36 39 41

Rooms 3,593 2,585 2,883 2,883 2,739 2,739 2,804 2,849 3,201 3,721 5,274 4,811 5,344 5,434 6,982 7,749 8,445

Change -28.1% 11.5% 0.0% -5.0% 0.0% 2.4% 1.6% 12.4% 16.2% 41.7% -8.8% 11.1% 1.7% 28.5% 11.0% 9.0%

Midtown South

Hotels 42 46 45 49 52 52 54 58 68 72 79 85 88 92 99 103 103

Rooms 4,764 5,088 4,988 5,445 5,784 5,784 6,034 6,368 7,900 8,404 9,700 10,474 10,799 11,329 12,528 13,623 14,352

Change 6.8% -2.0% 9.2% 6.2% 0.0% 4.3% 5.5% 24.1% 6.4% 15.4% 8.0% 3.1% 4.9% 10.6% 8.7% 5.4%

Midtown Hotels 159 163 165 165 163 164 165 168 170 182 192 193 196 211 227 242 242

Rooms 52,227 52,993 53,840 53,839 53,263 53,520 53,366 53,684 54,053 56,027 58,465 59,089 59,751 62,847 66,454 69,976 71,237

Change 1.5% 1.6% 0.0% -1.1% 0.5% -0.3% 0.6% 0.7% 3.7% 4.4% 1.1% 1.1% 5.2% 5.7% 5.3% 1.8%

Uptown Hotels 29 29 29 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 28 28 27 27 29 29 29

Rooms 4,418 4,418 4,418 4,268 4,268 4,083 4,070 4,070 4,070 4,070 4,194 4,194 4,074 4,074 4,164 4,164 4,374

Change 0.0% 0.0% -3.4% 0.0% -4.3% -0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% -2.9% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 5.0%

Total Hotels 244 249 251 254 254 254 258 266 281 299 324 330 337 357 391 413 415

Rooms 65,002 65,084 66,129 66,435 66,054 66,126 66,274 66,971 69,224 72,222 77,633 78,568 79,968 83,684 90,128 95,512 98,408

Change 0.1% 1.6% 0.5% -0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 1.1% 3.4% 4.3% 7.5% 1.2% 1.8% 4.6% 7.7% 6.0% 3.0%

Notable openings in 2014 are expected to include the 246-room Residence Inn World Trade Center at 170 Broadway, the 210-room Park Hyatt at 157 W 57th Street and the 114-room Baccarat New York, at 20-24 W 53rd Street. Another major project for 2015 is the 273-room Clock Tower Building at 1 Madison Avenue which is slated to become an Edition Hotel.

As the expansive development pipeline indicates, building hotels remains a coveted investment option in Manhattan. Based on our research, development costs range from $350,000 to $450,000 per room for select-service hotels and $650,000 to $1.3 million per room for full-service hotels.

Uptown2010-2013: -1.0%2014-2016: 2.5%

Midtown2010-2013: 2.4%2014-2016: 3.5%

Midtown South2010-2013: 5.3%2014-2016: 7.0%

Downtown2010-2013: 1.0%2014-2016: 10.0%

Manhattan compound annual supply growth 2010-2013 and 2014-2016 by neighborhood

Source: JLL

Page 8: Hotel Intelligence New York - Investment management Hotel Intelligence New York | April 2014 A top global hotel investment market In 2013, Manhattan hotel transaction volume declined

8 Hotel Intelligence New York | April 2014

Manhattan key expected hotel openings - 2014

Source: JLL

Name Rooms Status Year of opening /

conversion

Market Submarket

Jarmulowsky Bank Building 105 In Construction 2014 Downtown City Hall/Insurancealoft Financial District 128 In Construction 2014 Downtown City Hall/InsuranceComfort Inn & Suites Chinatown 41 In Construction 2014 Downtown City Hall/InsuranceFairfield Inn & Suites New York Lower Manhattan 176 In Construction 2014 Downtown City Hall/InsuranceFour Points Financial District 264 In Construction 2014 Downtown City Hall/Insurance24-26 John Street 90 In Construction 2014 Downtown Financial DistrictHampton Inn Manhattan/Downtown-Financial District 82 In Construction 2014 Downtown Financial DistrictResidence Inn World Trade Center 246 In Construction 2014 Downtown Financial DistrictHoliday Inn Manhattan Financial District 416 In Construction 2014 Downtown World Trade CenterHilton Garden Inn Central Park South Midtown West 401 In Construction 2014 Midtown Columbus CirclePark Hyatt Hotel New York 210 In Construction 2014 Midtown Columbus CircleHilton Garden Inn Midtown Project 232 In Construction 2014 Midtown Grand CentralSLS New York 190 In Construction 2014 Midtown Grand CentralArcher Hotel 180 In Construction 2014 Midtown Penn Plaza/Garment DistrictGalerie 515 Hotel & Condominium Residences 87 In Construction 2014 Midtown Penn Plaza/Garment DistrictHomewood Suites 37th Street 293 In Construction 2014 Midtown Penn Plaza/Garment DistrictBaccarat New York 114 In Construction 2014 Midtown Plaza DistrictHilton Garden Inn New York/Manhattan-Midtown East 205 In Construction 2014 Midtown Plaza DistrictHampton Inn - Times Square W41st Street 299 In Construction 2014 Midtown Times SquareHyatt Place Times Square 130 In Construction 2014 Midtown Times SquareCambria Suites Times Square 196 In Construction 2014 Midtown Times SquareCitizen M Times Square 230 In Construction 2014 Midtown Times SquareHilton Garden Inn Project Times Square 282 In Construction 2014 Midtown Times SquareKnickerbocker Hotel 386 In Construction 2014 Midtown Times SquareWestHouse New York 172 Open 2014 Midtown Columbus CircleCambria Suites Chelsea 135 In Construction 2014 Midtown South Gramercy Park501-503 Canal Street Project 160 In Construction 2014 Midtown South Hudson ParkThe Hugo 122 In Construction 2014 Midtown South Hudson ParkStories Hotel 33 In Construction 2014 Midtown South SoHoCitizen M Bowery 315 In Construction 2014 Midtown South SoHoIndigo Orchard Street 250 In Construction 2014 Midtown South SoHoHotel Ludlow 170 In Construction 2014 Midtown South SoHoAudubon Hotel 36 In Construction 2014 Uptown Harlem514 W. 168th St. Project 54 In Construction 2014 Uptown Harlem

Page 9: Hotel Intelligence New York - Investment management Hotel Intelligence New York | April 2014 A top global hotel investment market In 2013, Manhattan hotel transaction volume declined

April 2014 | Hotel Intelligence New York 9

Manhattan key expected hotel openings - 2015

Source: JLL

Name Rooms Status Year of opening /

conversion

Market Submarket

Thompson 5 Beekman St Project 287 In Construction 2015 Downtown City Hall/InsuranceCourtyard Greenwich Street Project 300 In Construction 2015 Downtown World Trade CenterSheraton Downtown 180 In Construction 2015 Downtown World Trade CenterEven NY 230 In Construction 2015 Midtown Grand CentralTommie Midtown 250 In Construction 2015 Midtown Grand CentralMarmara New York 109 In Construction 2015 Midtown Grand Central218 W 35th St Hotel Project 330 In Construction 2015 Midtown Penn Plaza/Garment Districtaloft Midtown 176 In Construction 2015 Midtown Penn Plaza/Garment District333 W 38th Street Project 79 In Construction 2015 Midtown Penn Plaza/Garment DistrictCourtyard by Marriott at Javits Convention Center 399 In Construction 2015 Midtown Penn Plaza/Garment DistrictEmbassy Suites NY 313 In Construction 2015 Midtown Penn Plaza/Garment DistrictLe Soleil NYC 161 In Construction 2015 Midtown Penn Plaza/Garment DistrictHoliday Inn 8th Avenue 288 In Construction 2015 Midtown Penn Plaza/Garment DistrictJade Midtown 114 In Construction 2015 Midtown Penn Plaza/Garment District1 Hotel Central Park 294 In Construction 2015 Midtown Plaza DistrictE 47th Street Project 93 In Construction 2015 Midtown Plaza DistrictFirmdale Boutique Hotel Project 86 In Construction 2015 Midtown Plaza DistrictRiu Plaza NY Times Square 600 In Construction 2015 Midtown Times Square32 W 29th Street Project 117 In Construction 2015 Midtown South ChelseaClock Tower Building 273 In Construction 2015 Midtown South Gramercy ParkTommie West SoHo 329 In Construction 2015 Midtown South Hudson ParkPublic New York 376 In Construction 2015 Midtown South SoHo

Page 10: Hotel Intelligence New York - Investment management Hotel Intelligence New York | April 2014 A top global hotel investment market In 2013, Manhattan hotel transaction volume declined

10 Hotel Intelligence New York | April 2014

Robust demand growth expected in 2014

Occupancy levels declined notably in Manhattan during the downturn following 9/11. During the most recent downturn, however, it was average daily rates that were impacted more significantly. The recovery periods that followed these downturns illustrate the city’s resilience and appeal to commercial, group and leisure travelers, as the market rebounds quickly from periods of decline. For example, hotel performance among Manhattan’s upper upscale and luxury properties recovered strongly in 2010 and 2011 with RevPAR growth of 10% and 8%, respectively.5

RevPAR growth, while remaining positive, slowed to 3.8% in 2012, driven by occupancy increases of two percentage points and an ADR rise of 2%. While Manhattan experienced higher demand increases than the national average in 2012, the city’s elevated supply additions tempered RevPAR growth.

In 2013, RevPAR increased by 4.3% due to demand growth from the transient and group segments. Furthermore, citywide demand for hotel room nights reached 32 million sold rooms, an increase of 4.5% on 2012 which compares to national demand growth of a lower 2.2%.

In 2013, visitation to the city also reached a record high of 54.3 million people. This marks a 1.6 million person increase from 2012 and a 20 million person increase in the number of visitors since 2002.6

In 2014, Manhattan hotel performance is poised for continued growth. However, with substantial new hotel rooms anticipated to enter the market, especially in Lower Manhattan, RevPAR growth is anticipated to be more muted and mostly driven by rate. We expect RevPAR for the city’s upper-tier hotels to increase from 3%-3.5% in 2014, mainly driven by an increase in rate.

Manhattan will continue to benefit from robust increases in international tourism, especially from Brazil and China, as well as unrealized visitation from other emerging markets in Asia, South America and Europe. As indicated by the Mayor’s office, the city is on pace to reach 55 million annual visitors during 2014.

Even when considering the impending new supply, the diversification of demand will be a driving factor in investors’ strong sentiment for the market. The city’s strength, durability and resilience have positioned Manhattan as the top U.S. hotel investment market offering a large range of high quality lodging stock. This will continue to attract significant attention from domestic and international investors, brands and operators seeking to establish or grow their foothold in New York.

New York MSA occupied room nights

Source: Smith Travel Research

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

2007 2009 2011 2012 2013

Annu

al oc

cupie

d roo

m nig

hts

2008 2010

New York lodging performance, selected upper-tier hotels

Note: Data is based on City: New York | Chain Scales: Upper Upscale, Luxury, Independents in Luxury ClassSource: Smith Travel Research

ADR RevPAR Occ

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTDQ1

2013YTDQ1

2014

5Smith Travel Research6NYC.go – Office of Mayor Bloomberg

Page 11: Hotel Intelligence New York - Investment management Hotel Intelligence New York | April 2014 A top global hotel investment market In 2013, Manhattan hotel transaction volume declined

April 2014 | Hotel Intelligence New York 11

Page 12: Hotel Intelligence New York - Investment management Hotel Intelligence New York | April 2014 A top global hotel investment market In 2013, Manhattan hotel transaction volume declined

COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE 2014All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle. It is based on material that we believe to be reliable. While every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer any warranty that it contains no factual errors. We would like to be told of any such errors in order to correct them.

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