Housing and Transportation Affordability Index Study MWCOG Transportation Planning Board September 9, 2011 Center for Neighborhood Technology Non-profit applied research think and do tank based in Chicago Develop and implement strategies that benefit the environment and the economy Bridge information gaps and asymmetries between supply & demand for essential public goods and services Work includes energy efficiency, transportation efficiency, green infrastructure Expanding the Definition of Affordability Housing Costs < 30% of Income Expanding the Definition of Affordability Transportation Costs? Expanding the Definition of Affordability H+T Costs < 45% of Income Expanding the Definition of Affordability Transportation costs are typically 18% of household budget H+T Affordability Index calculates costs at the neighborhood level 337 metro areas at:30% housing + 15% transportation = 45% H+T affordability benchmark Housing Costs + Transportation Costs Income H+T INDEX = Applications Region Forward 2050 Goals: Transit-oriented mixed-use communities emerging in Regional Activity Centers that will capture new employment and household growth. A transportation system that maximizes community connectivity and walkability, and minimizes ecological harm to the region and world beyond. A variety of housing types and choices in diverse, vibrant, safe, healthy, and sustainable neighborhoods, affordable to persons at all income levels. A broad range of public and private transportation choices for our Region which maximizes accessibility and affordability to everyone and minimizes reliance upon single occupancy use of the automobile. Target: By 2020, the housing and transportation costs in Regional Activity Centers will not exceed 45 percent of area median income Target: Increase the share of walk, bike, and transit trips Why Look at H+T? Source: zillow.com; US EIA H + T Index: Expanding the Definition of Affordability Transportation Costs Vary by Location Customizing the H+T Index for DC Updated Data Constant share method preserves 2000 Census block group level variation while updating to with the American Community Survey Market Rate Housing Costs To capture housing market trends, Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data used for home ownership costs Local Data Detailed datasets obtained from local agencies serve as independent variables refining the model calibration Customizing the H+T Index for DC: Local Data Residential Density Standard model uses Census blocks to define residential acres Customizing the H+T Index for DC: Local Data Residential Density Customized model tests the use of land use data in refining residential acreage calculation Land Use Data Customizing the H+T Index for DC: Local Data + Land Use Diversity Customizing the H+T Index for DC: Local Data Transit Access Standard model uses rail stations and bus routes to measure access Customizing the H+T Index for DC: Local Data Transit Access Customized model incorporates all regional bus networks and frequency of service Customizing the H+T Index for DC: Local Data Transit Access + OPs Transit Network Analysis Customized model also incorporates OPs Transit Network Analysis estimating area of land accessible in a given time by transit Customizing the H+T Index for DC: Development of Two Models General Model, Full RegionRefined Model, Small Region Model Findings: Autos per Household General Model, Full RegionRefined Model, Small Region Model Findings: Autos per Household Model Findings: Percent Transit for Journey to Work General Model, Full RegionRefined Model, Small Region Model Findings: Percent Transit for Journey to Work Model Findings: Vehicle Miles Traveled Massachusetts Model Model Findings: Vehicle Miles Traveled Model Findings: Differences Between the Two Models Model Outputs and Results Avg. Monthly Housing Costs Model Outputs and Results Avg. Monthly Transportation Costs Model Outputs and Results Avg. Monthly H+T Costs Model Outputs and Results Avg. Monthly H+T Costs as a Percent of AMI Bringing It All Together: Redefining Affordability Applying the H+T Scenario Tool Studying CHASE TAZ 8.0 Forecast 2,165 New Households 17,917 New Jobs Streetcar Line Results Autos/Household -61% VMT -42% % Transit Use +36% Transportation Cost -51% Peter M. Haas, Ph.D Chief Research Scientist Stephanie Morse Research Coordinator Thank You! Questions?