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HOUSINGMARKET REPORTOctober 2020
NEW HAMPSHIRE HOUSING FINANCE AUTHORITYNHHFA.org2
PERSPECTIVES ON HOUSING & DEMOGRAPHICS
BEEN DOWN SO LONG IT LOOKS LIKE UP TO ME
Russ Thibeault is the founder of Applied Economic Research, a Laconia-based economic and real estate consulting firm. AERH.com
Every so often a phrase out of the blue seems to click. Such is the case with the title of Richard Fariña’s iconic 1960s novel “Been Down So Long It Looks Like Up to Me,” subsequently reprised by the Doors.
For most of the past two decades New Hampshire’s population growth has been “down so long,” driven by a combination of no natural increase (births minus deaths) and low rates of in-migration.
Research on New Hampshire’s migration by the Carsey School of Public Policy highlighted in this Housing Market Report “looks like up to me” in several respects.
Their research indicates that recent migrants tend to be younger than current residents, helping to balance our aging demographic profile, with about 60% under age 49 versus 40% of our current population. Recent migrants also tend to be better educated and have higher incomes than current residents.
What does their research say about the proverbial “New Hampshire Advantage”? Contrary to the conventional wisdom, it’s not all about low taxes. Taxes ranked sixth out of the seven factors frequently cited by recent migrants as a reason to move into the state, dwarfed by family reasons, the natural environment and quality of life, etc.
With COVID-19’s work-from-home policies cutting the umbilical cord to expensive housing and work space in and near Boston, it’s likely we will see yet more migration into the state. If the profile of recent migrants holds, that will be a good thing for New Hampshire. But we need to create additional affordable housing if we want to attract and accommodate migration. Notably, affordable housing was not cited as one of the top factors attracting new migrants to the state — meaning that it is mostly those with higher incomes who can afford to move here. That will continue to pose a problem for expansion of the middle-income labor force.
Dean J. Christon Executive DirectorNew Hampshire Housing Finance Authority
With the arrival of fall, we are more than seven months into the COVID-19 pandemic and assessing its impact on the state’s economy and housing market. The data reveal a surprisingly robust housing market here and nationally, due in large part to record-low interest rates. Unemployment data show the impact of COVID on those who can — and can’t — work from home.
In this edition of our Housing Market Report, we explore what the data show thus far about how COVID-19 is impacting New Hampshire’s homeowner and rental markets. We know that the state and federal eviction and foreclosure moratoria have so far kept many people in their homes despite financial stress from job loss or a reduction in work hours. And we offer two commentaries on migration into the state and the demographic implications for New Hampshire’s housing market.
A new documentary airing on NHPBS October 22nd also focuses on the state’s demographics. Communities & Consequences II, produced by Jay Childs in partnership with Peter Francese and Lorraine Stuart Merrill, explores the economic and social realities of workforce shortages in our state. It examines what is needed to make the state welcoming to young people, families and essential workers. The companion book points to the frequently cited misperception that adding new housing stock will increase education costs as new housing is created to support the needs of our workforce. The film producers are planning community conversations, something that NHHFA and the state’s housing coalitions strongly support. Go to NHPBS.org/communitiesandconsequences for details on the film, book and conversations. (New Hampshire Housing is a sponsor of the documentary.)
October 2020HOUSING MARKET REPORT 3
The housing needs of the state’s current residents as well as those moving to the state must be met in order for New Hampshire to grow and thrive. To understand the housing needs of these two groups, we need to know what encourages res-idents to move to and stay in the state. Only 33 percent of residents age 25 and older were born in the New Hampshire, so migrants are of considerable impor-tance to the state’s growth.
In my research (summer 2018 – fall 2019) co-authored with Dr. Ken Johnson, we examined what attracted recent migrants and retains established residents in New Hampshire. For both groups, the top reasons are family, the natural environ-ment, quality of life, employment, taxes, culture and lifestyle, and the economy.
Family was the top reason both for migrants and established residents. Quality of life and the natural environment ranked second and third among established residents, while the natural environment and employment were more important to recent migrants.
Employment is particularly important to younger, well-educated, and higher- income recent migrants. These findings suggest that people at different stages likely have different housing needs and preferences. For example, established residents may want to upgrade their homes to make them more family-friendly, whereas younger migrants may be looking for affordable rentals. In our survey, housing and property values were mentioned by nearly 12 percent of recent migrants to the state.
A complex array of factors motivates people to move to or stay in New Hamp-shire. It is not surprising, therefore, that there is no simple solution to developing housing policy for the state. Instead, it is important to remember that people’s connections to the state are the result of a matrix of social, economic, and environmental factors. These, together with residents’ stage in the life cycle, age, income, and education, will all influence their housing needs and preferences.
Our Carsey Research brief has detailed analyses about why people move to and stay in New Hampshire: carsey.unh.edu/publication/why-people-move-to-stay-in-NH
Kristine Bundschuh PhD Student in SociologyUniversity of New Hampshire
Data were collected by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center’s Granite State Poll, a quarterly telephone survey to New Hampshire residents. From summer 2018 to fall 2019, the 2,063 respondents were asked their top three reasons for staying in the state rather than moving to a different state and, if relevant, the top three reasons they initially moved to the state. The questions were open ended.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Economy
Culture and Lifestyle
Taxes
Employment
Quality of Life
Natural Environment
Family
Figure 1. Top Reasons to Stay in or Move to NH
Recent Migrants Established ResidentsData Source: Granite State Poll, University of New Hampshire Figure Source: Johnson and Bundschuh (2020)
SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, & ENVIRONMENTAL REASONS PEOPLE MOVE TO & STAY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE
NEW HAMPSHIRE HOUSING FINANCE AUTHORITYNHHFA.org4
Front cover photos: A Seabrook Celtics fan and his mom, participants in our Assisted Housing Family Self-Sufficiency program, enjoy time together at home before the work and school day starts; Twin Pines Housing’s Tracey Community Housing (29 new units) in West Lebanon, the first net zero affordable rental property in NH, is funded through NHHFA and the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit Program; Cathy received a grant from GSIL/NHHFA to fund the installation of a ramp in her Milford home.
Perspectives on Housing & Demographics .......................................................... 2 - 3 Economic Indicators .................................................................................................... 5 • Unemployment Rate (US, New England, New Hampshire)• Unemployment Rates by Year (US, New England, New Hampshire)• New Hampshire Initial Unemployment Claims & Continued Claims by Week• Unemployment by Industry• Mortgage Delinquencies in New England & US• Foreclosure Deeds in New Hampshire• Eviction Indicators – NH Court Filings• Likelihood of Eviction or Foreclosure• Housing Insecurity• Owner and Renter Median Household Income • National Household Debt, 2004 - Q2 2020
New Hampshire’s Homebuyer Market ...................................................................... 11• MLS Median Sales Price • MLS Closed Sales• MLS Current Listings• Months of Supply of Inventory• Comparison of Interest Rates• Where NH’s Homebuyers Are Coming From• Housing Permits (single-family & multi-family)• Real Estate Listings by NH County • Mortgage Activity
New Hampshire’s Rental Market .............................................................................. 16• Monthly Median Gross Rent (2-bedroom, all units, statewide)• Percent Change in 2-Bedroom Median Gross Rent over 5-Years Statewide• Statewide Vacancy Rate (2-bedroom & all units, 2010-2020)
TABLE OF CONTENTS
NEW HAMPSHIRE HOUSING FINANCE AUTHORITYHOUSING MARKET REPORT OCTOBER 2020
Donald L. Shumway, Hopkinton – Chair Mary Beth Rudolph, Dover – Vice Chair Kendall Buck, Wilmot John A. Cuddy, North Conway James E. Graham, Haverhill Pauline Ikawa, ManchesterConnie Boyles Lane, ConcordSarah Marchant, BrooklineMichael Skelton, Bedford
Dean J. Christon Executive Director
BOARD OF DIRECTORS
REPORT PREPARED BY THE POLICY, PLANNING AND COMMUNICATIONS GROUP
Ben Frost, Managing Director Heather McCann, Director of Housing Research Kathleen Moran, Housing Research Analyst For questions about this report and press inquiries: Grace Lessner, Public Information Manager | [email protected] | 603-310-9371
P.O. Box 5087 | Manchester, NH 03108 | 603-472-8623 NHHFA.org | [email protected]
October 2020HOUSING MARKET REPORT 5
Ben Frost, Managing Director Heather McCann, Director of Housing Research Kathleen Moran, Housing Research Analyst For questions about this report and press inquiries: Grace Lessner, Public Information Manager | [email protected] | 603-310-9371
P.O. Box 5087 | Manchester, NH 03108 | 603-472-8623 NHHFA.org | [email protected]
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (US, NEW ENGLAND, NEW HAMPSHIRE)Through August 2020, seasonally adjusted Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
The unemployment rate in the state, region, and nationally abruptly and dramatically changed in April after the COVID-19 pandemic hit the US. New Hampshire’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for August was 6.5%, a decrease from its peak of 17.1% in April. New Hampshire now has the nation’s 17th lowest unemployment rate, tied with North Carolina.
Economic indicators continue to reflect a strong economy in New Hampshire, with steady job opportunities. They also show household income has increased over the past five years but may be starting to slow.
8.4% 9.5%
6.5%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
US NE NH
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, BY YEAR (US, NEW ENGLAND, NEW HAMPSHIRE)Through August 2020, seasonally adjusted Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
8.4% 9.5%
6.5%
NEW HAMPSHIRE HOUSING FINANCE AUTHORITYNHHFA.org6
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10%
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Education and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
US NE NH
NH INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS & CONTINUED CLAIMS BY WEEK
January - September 26, 2020
Each week—both while a claim is pending determination and after it is approved—a worker must file a continued claim for benefits. “Week of unemployment” means when an individual registers in person, by mail or telephone with an employment office. For example: The claimant reported on Friday, February 8, and advised that he had been laid off on January 28. He did not contact the Department earlier because he was busy looking for work. He wished to claim benefits from the time of layoff. The effective date of the claim is February 3, the Sunday prior to the Friday on which he reported. This is termed the “reflected week.” Source: U.S. Department of Labor; count totals are compiled by reflecting week ended
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1/4/
2020
1/18
/202
0
2/1/
2020
2/15
/202
0
2/29
/202
0
3/14
/202
0
3/28
/202
0
4/11
/202
0
4/25
/202
0
5/9/
2020
5/23
/202
0
6/6/
2020
6/20
/202
0
7/4/
2020
7/18
/202
0
8/1/
2020
8/15
/202
0
8/29
/202
0
9/12
/202
0
9/26
/202
0
Thou
sand
s
Reflecting Week Ended
Initial Claims Continued Claims
EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
Percent change August 2019 to August 2020; seasonally adjusted
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
There were 2,005 initial claims filed for the week ending 9/26/2020, a 95% decrease compared to the peak in the state for the week ending 4/4/2020, when initial claims totaled 39,202. Continued claims are down 71% from the peak on 5/9/2020. Both initial and continued claims have been steadily declining week over week.
October 2020HOUSING MARKET REPORT 7
MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES IN NEW ENGLAND & US Q1 & Q2, 2020
Source: National Delinquency Survey, Mortgage Bankers Association; prepared by NHHFA
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
The number of foreclosures was greatly reduced as a result of the state’s moratorium on them from March - July 1, 2020. Also, many homeowners with federally backed mortgages requested a forbearance from their mortgage companies to temporarily suspend or reduce payments required. Given these governmental restrictions on foreclosures, this graphic is not reflective of what foreclosure activity might look like in 2021.
FORECLOSURE DEEDS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE By quarter
Source: The Warren Group, compiled by NHHFA
Mortgage delinquencies in New Hampshire in Q2 2020 have increased due to the pan-demic. Currently, 6.3% of all loans in the state have at least one payment past due, which is lower than other New England states and nationally. The delinquency rate includes loans at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure.
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
CT RI ME VT MA NH NE US
Q1-2020 Q2-2020
NEW HAMPSHIRE HOUSING FINANCE AUTHORITYNHHFA.org8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
12/3
0/19
-1/
3/20
2/3-
2/7
3/2-
3/6
4/6-
4/10
5/4-
5/8
6/1-
6/5
7/6-
7/10
8/3-
8/7
9/14
-9/1
8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39
Landlord Tenant Writ cases filed Count of Writs of Possession issued
Eviction MoratoriumCOVID-19 Emergency Order #4
EVICTION INDICATORS - NH COURT FILINGS, BY WEEK
2020 YTD through 9/25/2020
Source: Landlord/Tenant Writ Filings & Writs of Possession, New Hampshire Judicial Branch
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD
Landlord Tenant Writ Cases Filed Writs of Possession Issued
EVICTION INDICATORS - NH COURT FILINGS, ANNUALLY 2020 YTD through 9/25/2020
Source: Landlord/Tenant Writ Filings & Writs of Possession, New Hampshire Judicial Branch
In order to legally evict a tenant in NH, a landlord must first file a Landlord/Tenant Writ with the court. A judge determines if a writ of possession court order will be issued, allowing a landlord to have a tenant lawfully removed from the home. Governmental actions to stop evictions during the pandemic have impacted the numbers seen in this graph.
October 2020HOUSING MARKET REPORT 9
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
0% 20% 40% 60%
Rhode Island
New Hampshire
Massachusetts
Vermont
Maine
Connecticut
United States
LIKELIHOOD OF EVICTION OR FORECLOSURE
Data collected 9/2/2020 - 9/14/2020.
Black bar in graph indicates the margin of error, a measure of an estimate’s variability. This number, when added to and sub-tracted from the estimate, forms a 90-percent confidence interval.
Source: Census Bureau, Household Pulse Survey
This graph shows the percentage of adults who reported living in households where eviction or foreclosure in the next two months is either very likely or somewhat likely.
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
Rhode Island
Connecticut
Maine
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Vermont
United States
HOUSING INSECURITY
Data collected 9/2/2020 - 9/14/2020
Black bar in graph indicates the margin of error, a measure of an estimate’s variability. This number, when added to and sub-tracted from the estimate, forms a 90-percent confidence interval.
Source: Census Bureau, Household Pulse Survey
This graph shows the percentage of adults who reported that they are not current on rent or mortgage payments, or who have slight or no confidence that their household can pay next month’s rent or mortgage on time.
NEW HAMPSHIRE HOUSING FINANCE AUTHORITYNHHFA.org10
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Household income has increased for both owners and renters in 2019. Renter- occupied household income increased by $4,000 to $45,000. Even with this income increase, it would still be challenging to purchase a home given current market conditions.
$73 $74 $77 $78 $78
$81 $86 $86
$91 $92 $95
$35 $36 $34 $36 $39 $39 $41
$43 $42 $41 $45
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
THO
USA
NDS
Median Owner-occupied Income Median Renter-occupied Income
OWNER & RENTER MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME
In thousands; based on 2019 dollars, adjusted for inflation.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2009-2019. One Year Estimates Median Household Income by Tenure, B25119.
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
TRIL
LIO
N
Auto Loan Credit Card Student Loan Other
National Household DebtNon-Housing Debt Balance 2004-2020 Q2Total Household Debt Declines for the First Time Since 2014
Credit card balances declined sharply in the second quarter, by $76 billion, the steepest decline in card balances seen in the history of the data and reflecting the sharp declines in consumer spending due to the COVID-19 pandemic and related social distancing orders. Auto loan balances were roughly flat in the second quarter. Student loan balances increased slightly by $2 billion reflecting a wide application of forbearances on federal student loans and interest waiver. In total, non-housing balances (including credit card, auto loan, student loan, and other debts) saw the largest decline in the history of this report, with an $86 billion decline.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax
NATIONAL HOUSEHOLD DEBT, 2004 – Q2 2020 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax
Credit card balances declined sharply in Q2, by $76 billion, the steepest decline in card balances in the history of the data. It reflects sharp declines in consumer spending due to the COVID-19 pandemic and related social distancing orders. Auto loan balances were roughly flat in Q2. Student loan balances increased slightly by $2 billion, reflecting a wide application of forbearance on federal student loans and interest waivers. In total, non-housing balances (including credit card, auto loan, student loan, and other debts) saw the largest decline in the history of this report ($86 billion).
October 2020HOUSING MARKET REPORT 11
NEW HAMPSHIRE’S HOMEBUYER MARKET
While mortgage rates have fallen to record lows, an extremely low inventory of houses and continued high demand have pushed the median home sales price to record highs.
MLS MEDIAN SALES PRICE
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
THO
USA
NDS
All Homes 12-Month Moving Average (All Homes)
Source: Based on information from the Northern New England Real Estate Network and compiled by NHHFA. Excludes land, interval ownership, seasonal camps/ cottages, multi-family property, mobile/ manufactured homes and commercial/ industrial property
The median sales price reached a new peak in August 2020 of $335,000. This is a 14% increase from August of last year.
MLS CLOSED SALES
0
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1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
NUM
BER
OF
SALE
S
August 2020 sales decreased less than 1% from the number of sales in August of last year. Sales are down 6% from January - August compared to the same period last year. These figures reflect extremely low inventory levels, not a lack of demand. Orange line reflects a six-month moving average
Source: Based on information from the Northern New England Real Estate Network and compiled by NHHFA. Excludes land, interval ownership, seasonal camps/ cottages, multi-family property, mobile/ manufactured homes and commercial/ industrial property
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
THO
USA
NDS
All Homes 12-Month Moving Average (All Homes)
NEW HAMPSHIRE HOUSING FINANCE AUTHORITYNHHFA.org12
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
NUM
BER
OF
LIST
ING
S
12-Month Moving Average (Total Listings) 12-Month Moving Average (Listings $300K)
MLS CURRENT LISTINGSBased on information from the Northern New England Real Estate Network and compiled by NHHFA. Excludes land, interval ownership, seasonal camps/ cottages, multi-family property, mobile/manufactured homes and commercial/industrial property
September 2020 listings in total have dropped 27% when compared to September 2019. As prices continue to rise, listings under $300,000 become scarcer; the number of homes below this price have decreased 37% from last year.
NEW HAMPSHIRE’S HOMEBUYER MARKET
3.8
1.40.9
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
MO
NTH
S
Active & Pending Active Only Active ≤ $300K
MONTHS OF SUPPLY OF INVENTORY
Based on information from the Northern New England Real Estate Network and compiled by NHHFA. Excludes land, interval ownership, seasonal camps/ cottages, multi-family property, mobile/manufactured homes and commercial/industrial property
Months of supply of inventory shows how many months it would take for the current inventory of homes on the market to sell, given the current pace of home sales. Active listings less than or equal to $300,000 had a high of eight months in August 2014. In September 2020, New Hampshire dropped to less than one month of supply of homes listed at or below $300,000.
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
NUM
BER
OF
LIST
ING
S
12-Month Moving Average (Total Listings) 12-Month Moving Average (Listings $300K)
October 2020HOUSING MARKET REPORT 13
New HampshireMassachusettsMaine Vermont Connecticut New YorkFloridaRhode IslandCaliforniaPennsylvaniaVirginiaNew Jersey TexasArizonaColoradoOther StatesUnknown
8,7801,924
131127124114103
7774474538383534
25081
Total Sales 12,022
WHERE NH’S HOMEBUYERS ARE COMING FROM
Number of homes purchased in New Hampshire by in- and out-of-state buyers, January - August 2020 (top 15 states).
Source: The Warren Group; filtered and analyzed by NHHFA
NEW HAMPSHIRE’S HOMEBUYER MARKET
2.89%
0.09%
0.68%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
PERC
ENT
Mortgage Interest Rates Federal Funds Rate 10-Year Treasury
COMPARISON OF INTEREST RATES
Source: Freddie Mac Primary National Mortgage Market Survey; US Federal Reserve Selected Interest Rate H.15.
Interest rates remain historically low, leading to very favorable financing for those who already own a home and wish to refinance, or those who are purchasing a home. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows an average commitment rate of 2.89% for the month of September with 0.8 points.
While the great majority of New Hampshire’s homebuyers are moving within the state (73%), about a third of buyers come from elsewhere. These are the top 15 states of origin of homebuyers this year. (See pages 2 - 3 for insights on this in-migration to New Hampshire.)
NEW HAMPSHIRE HOUSING FINANCE AUTHORITYNHHFA.org14
NEW HAMPSHIRE’S HOMEBUYER MARKET
NH HOUSING PERMITS (SINGLE-FAMILY AND MULTI-FAMILY)
Seasonally adjusted, 6-month moving average, through August 2020
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Construction Statistics Division
Single-family permits increased 24% cumulatively from January through August of this year when compared to last year, while multi-family permits have decreased 61%.
INDEX OF NH & US SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING PERMITS ISSUED Seasonally adjusted, 6-month moving average, indexed, through August 2020. Index 12-month average of year 2000 = 100
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Construction Statistics Division
Nationally, single-family housing permits have increased 9% this year, collectively from January through August, when compared to the same period last year. New Hampshire has seen more growth (24%) when compared to last year, yet it remains behind the national average.
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20
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2020
NUM
BER
OF
PERM
ITS
US NH
US
NH
0
100
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2000
2001
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2004
2005
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2007
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NUM
BER
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PERM
ITS
Single Family Multi-Family
October 2020HOUSING MARKET REPORT 15
NEW HAMPSHIRE’S HOMEBUYER MARKET
County Total Listings Median List
Price
Listings at or Below $300,000
Percent of County Total
Listings at or Above $300,000
Percent of County Total
Belknap County 444 349,900$ 175 39.4% 269 60.6%
Carroll County 508 365,000$ 191 37.6% 317 62.4%
Cheshire County 330 275,000$ 202 61.2% 128 38.8%
Coos County 268 185,000$ 209 78.0% 59 22.0%
Grafton County 620 297,200$ 332 53.5% 288 46.5%
Hillsborough County 1,487 265,000$ 504 33.9% 983 66.1%
Merrimack County 616 349,900$ 251 40.7% 365 59.3%
Rockingham County 1,511 475,000$ 238 15.8% 1,273 84.2%
Strafford County 459 319,000$ 217 47.3% 242 52.7%
Sullivan County 263 264,900$ 163 62.0% 100 38.0%
New Hampshire 6,506 359,900$ 2,482 4,024
Real Estate Listings by CountyREAL ESTATE LISTINGS BY NH COUNTY
Listings as of 9/1/20.
Based on information from the Northern New England Real Estate Network and compiled by NHHFA. Excludes land, interval ownership, seasonal camps/ cottages, multi-family property, mobile/manufactured homes and commercial/industrial property.
Mortgage Activity in NHAugust 2019
August 2020
Percent Change
YTD 2019
YTD 2020
Percent Change
All Mortgages 4,427 6,185 + 40% 25,703 40,079 + 56%Purchase Mortgages 2,134 1,880 -12% 12,799 11,153 -13%Refinance Mortgages 2,293 4,305 + 88% 12,904 28,926 + 124%
MORTGAGE ACTIVITY
August 2020
Source: The Warren Group
Mortgage activity this calendar year in New Hampshire has been dominated by home refinances. Of all mortgage activity this year, 72% were home refinancings and 28% were for home purchases.
NEW HAMPSHIRE HOUSING FINANCE AUTHORITYNHHFA.org16
NEW HAMPSHIRE’S RENTAL MARKET
A tight rental market with very low vacancy rates, along with a strong state economy, was reflected in the NHHFA 2020 Residential Rental Cost Survey. Despite the ongoing tightness of the rental market, there is a positive note: at 1.8%, the vacancy rate for all units is nearly 1% higher than last year. View the 2020 report at NHHFA.org.
$1,056
$1,157
$1,413
$980$1,069
$1,283
$750
$850
$950
$1,050
$1,150
$1,250
$1,350
$1,450
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
2-Bedroom Median Gross Rent All Units Median Gross Rent
+22%
MONTHLY MEDIAN GROSS RENT, 2-BEDROOM & ALL UNITS (STATEWIDE)
Includes utilities
Source: NHHFA 2020 Residential Rental Cost Survey
The statewide median gross rent (including utilities) for a 2-bedroom unit has increased over 22% in the past 5 years.
Monthly median gross rent 2-bedroom units
Annual change in monthly median gross rent 2-bedroom units
Vacancy rate for 2-bedroom units
$1,413
+ 4.9%
1.75%
STATEWIDE
October 2020HOUSING MARKET REPORT 17
Rockingham
$1,62328%
Hillsborough
$1,53426%
Cheshire
$1,1185%
Stra�ord
$1,29126%
Carroll
$1,0777%
Belknap
$1,14515%
Merrimack
$1,20614%
Sullivan
$1,068 11%
Grafton
$1,307 21%
Coos
$88812.4%
PERCENT CHANGE IN 2-BEDROOM MEDIAN GROSS RENT OVER 5-YEARS (STATEWIDE, 2015-2020)
Source: NHHFA 2020 Residential Rental Cost Survey
The statewide median gross rent for a 2-bedroom unit in 2020 was $1,413; 78% of the rental units surveyed are in the southern tier (Hillsborough, Rockingham, Merrimack, and Strafford counties) and they have the highest median gross rents overall. The rental costs seen in Grafton County are driven by the market in the Hanover/Lebanon area.
NEW HAMPSHIRE’S RENTAL MARKET
Median Monthly Gross Rental Cost for 2-Bedroom Units
Percent Change in 2-Bedroom
Median Gross Rent Over 2015-2020
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
2-BR Vacancy Rate All Units Vacancy Rate
STATEWIDE VACANCY RATE (2-BEDROOM & ALL UNITS, 2010-2020)
Includes utilities
Source: NHHFA 2020 Residential Rental Cost Survey
NEW HAMPSHIRE HOUSING FINANCE AUTHORITYNHHFA.org18
NHHFA HOUSING RESEARCH, PUBLICATIONS AND RESOURCES
HOUSING MARKET SNAPSHOT
Q1 2020 7,603
Q2 2019 105,733
INITIAL CLAIMS FILED
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
New Hampshire Unemployment: Initial Claims Filed
1,291%
3.62%
1.76%
1.55%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
PE
RC
EN
T
Mortgage Interest Rates Fed Funds Rate 10 year Treasury
WH
AT’
S IN
SID
ECommentary p.2Unemployment Rate
(US, NE, NH) p.3
Unemployment Claims Filed in NH
Employment by Type of Business p.4
Interest Rates Mortgage Activity in NH p.5
MLS Listings Months of Supply p.6
MLS Closed Sales MLS Median Sales Price p.7
Building Permits p.8
Where Do NH Homebuyers Come From? p.9
Rents & Vacancies p.10
JUNE/JULY 2020
NEW HAMPSHIRE HOUSING FINANCE AUTHORITY
Report prepared by NHHFA’s Policy, Planning and
Communications Group
P.O. Box 5087 | Manchester, NH 03108 | 603-472-8623
NHHFA.org | [email protected]
2020 NEW HAMPSHIRERESIDENTIAL RENTAL COST SURVEY REPORT
HOUSING ADVOCACY AND GRANTSNHHFA provides funding to support local housing advocacy and public education activities. NHHFA also focuses on engaging partners such as local and regional chambers of commerce and economic development organizations. The state’s network of workforce housing coalitions, along with Housing Action NH, are key to raising awareness about the need for a diverse and affordable range of housing in our communities. NHHFA provides grants to support the housing coalitions such as Vital Communities (Upper Valley); the Workforce Housing Coalition of the Greater Seacoast; and the Mt. Washington Valley Housing Coalition.
MUNICIPAL TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE GRANT PROGRAMTo provide towns and cities with assistance to address locally identified planning needs, NHHFA partners with Plan NH in offering the Municipal Technical Assistance Grant Program (MTAG). Grants of up to $25,000 are available, and a match of 15% of the grant amount (in-kind or cash) is required. NHHFA staff provide direct technical assistance to municipalities upon request.
NHHFA published A New Hampshire Homeowner’s Guide to Accessory Dwelling Units in 2018 and an ADU guide for local officials in 2017. These guides provide assistance in implementing the Accessory Dwelling Unit statute (RSA 674:71-73). The intent of that law is to expand affordable housing options in New Hampshire communities by encouraging the efficient use of existing housing stock and infrastructure.
HOUSING CONFERENCE SERIESNHHFA hosts a series of conferences each year for the financial, real estate, lending, development, nonprofit, and other housing-related sectors, as well as public officials and business leaders. These events encourage discussion about addressing the Granite State’s affordable housing and economic development needs. In 2020, NHHFA presented its Homeownership Conference on March 3. In the fall, there will be virtual sessions in lieu of an in-person Multi-Family Housing Development Conference and Housing and the Economy Conference.
HOUSING-RELATED STUDIES, GUIDES AND REPORTS • A Housing Needs Assessment for New Hampshire (Part 1&2) (October 2020)• Housing Solutions Handbook (updated 2019)• A New Hampshire Homeowner’s Guide to Accessory Dwelling Units (2018) • Accessory Dwelling Units in New Hampshire: A Guide for Municipalities (2017) • Affordable Rental Housing Developments: Characteristics of Residents of New Hampshire Low Income Housing Tax Credit Apartments (2017) • Analysis of Impediments to Fair Housing (2004 & 2015) • Housing Needs in NH (NH Center for Public Policy Studies) (2014) • Community Planning Grant Case Studies (2014) • Information Briefs: A Planning Resource for Municipalities (2014) • Fair Housing for Regional and Municipal Planners (2014) • New Hampshire Employer Survey (2005, 2008 & 2014)
OTHER NHHFA PUBLICATIONS • Annual Report • Financial Statements and
Independent Auditor’s Report • Strategic / Program Plan • Annual Residential Rental Cost
Survey Report (& Utility Allowance)
• Housing Market Report (Spring - Fall)
• Housing Market SNAPSHOT • HUD Required Consolidated
Plan / Action Plan • State Biennial Housing Plan
(every 2 years)
NHHFA’s Policy, Planning and Communications Group focuses on researching and identifying the state’s housing needs and conditions, and publishing housing reports and studies. It also provides technical assistance and information to local governments and the public on housing-related matters, and administers grant programs to support non-profits engaged in affordable housing activities.
October 2020HOUSING MARKET REPORT 19
P.O. Box 5087 | Manchester, NH 03108 603-472-8623 | NHHFA.org | [email protected]
As a self-supporting public corporation created by the state legislature, New Hampshire Housing Finance Authority promotes, finances, and supports affordable housing.
New Hampshire housing market, economic and demographic data are available at NHHFA.org/data-resources-planning.
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