How People Get and Use Storm Risk and Emergency Information Now

COMMUNICATING HURRICANES

Catherine F. Smith, Ken Wilson, Donna Kain

Communication Makes Information Meaningful For Action

Meaningful =• accessible• understandable• relevant/applicable• usable

Action = • any activity or process

Decision

Is severe weather risk and emergency information delivered,

received, understood?

Practical Question for EM

EMs and PIOs need to know how communications are delivered, received, and understood.

You are partners in this research. Let’s discuss the takeaways.

Assumptions

• Limit of communication effectiveness is people.

"The greatest limitation to flood warnings is human behavior.”

Steven Molino, floodplain manager

• Limiting factors:

- Risk awareness, risk perception, location, situation, social networks, communication technology and media, message characteristics.

Problem: People

Communication works best when communicators account for people’s ways of making sense of information.

Mitigation: People

Case study of hurricane risk and emergency communication in eastern NC 2008-2010

We surveyed 20 counties and interviewed 6 counties in-depth.

Research

Surveyed Interviewed

Residents (year-round) 1079 120

Businesses and Organizations 603 120

Local Government Officials (EMs, PIOs, county managers,

county commissioners,)

N/A 24

• Findings from phone surveys in 20 counties

• Insights from interviews/focus groups in 6 counties

• Discussion throughout

Presentation Agenda

“Hurricane Risk Perception and Emergency Communication Effectiveness in Coastal Zones”

Catherine F. Smith, Donna J. Kain, Kenneth Wilson Research Assistants Michelle Covi, Douglas Solomon, and others

Supported by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Sea Grant North Carolina and East Carolina University

Acknowledgements

When Severe Weather Threatens…

Stay Leave Gather more Info0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

33

7

60

Residents

Pe

rce

nt

Most people consult a mix of sources

We asked about nine sources

− TV − Social Networks and Information Networks − Commercial Radio− Internet− Newspapers− NOAA Weather radio− Alert services − Local Officials− State/National Officials

Information Sources

Commercial TV is used by largest percentage of residents and businesses/ organizations

Use of Information Sources

Residents Businesses/organizations0

20

40

60

80

100 95

40

Series1

Pe

rce

nt

Use of Information Sources

Residents Businesses/Organizations0

10

20

30

40

50

60

48

15

Internet/Websites

Series1

Pe

rce

nt

Other sources are used by smaller percentages.

Use of Information Sources

Commercial Radio NoAA Radio Community TV

53

1

79

Residents Businesses/Organizations

Some sources are never used

Use of Information Sources

NOAA Radio Official Sources20

40

60

80

100Percent Never Use...

Residents

Networks20

30

40

50

60

70

80

6770

Use of Networks

ResidentsBusinesses/Organizations

Use of Information Sources

County EM Customers Clients Others10

20

30

40

50

60

45 45

36

29

Business/Organization Networks Cited

Contrasting Use of 4 Sources by Residents and Businesses or

Organizations

TV Commercial radio Networks Internet

95

53

67

4840

7

70

15

Comparison of Sources

Residents Businesses/organizations

Housing Type

Television Service Cable

Satellite (no local alert capability)

Broadcast

Phone Service Landline

Cell phone (possible alert capability)

Influences on Access

Quality of Information from Different Sources

*Rating based on scale 1 to 5, where 5 is best and 1 is worst

Newspapers

State/National Offiicials

Social Networks

Local Officials

Radio

Alert services

Internet

NOAA Weather radio

TV

2.1

2.3

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.1

Rating of Information Quality *Residents

The internet lags behind older media.

• Alert services are in the mix.

Businesses/organizations “get” EM.

Residents “get” severe weather but they do not rely on EM information or use public sources.

Peoplenetwork toprocess information.

Takeaways for Discussion

Most businesses (72%) reported they had a plan for dealing with severe weather emergencies.

Over half (55%) of the businesses that have plans have had their plan for 10 years

Over half (54%) have had their emergency plans tested by a severe weather event.

Businesses expect a hurricane to seriously impact the area in the next 10 years.

Business Takes Severe Weather Seriously

Businesses tend to adopt their severe weather plans as a response

to a severe weather event (48%)

to another type of emergency (8%)

Fewer responded to external requirements

16% due to a law or regulation

9% insurance requirements

7% required by the home office

Business Takes Severe Weather Seriously

Preparation for severe weather events (95%)Closing during an emergency (82%)Re-entry and re-opening (80%) Internal communications (76%)Assisting employees to evacuate (67%)Business continuity (64%)Remaining open during an emergency (63%)Back-up power (62%)Dealing with the public (62%)External communications (55%)Long term recovery (53%)Assisting employees to return to the area (52%) Informing the public (51%)

Business Plans Include:

Only one-third (33%) shared their plan with the local emergency managers.

During emergencies, businesses communicate with:

County emergency management group (48%)

City or county government (44%)

Business Takes Severe Weather Seriously

Being in an ocean-front county does not increase the likelihood that a business will have a plan.

Being established longer does not increase the likelihood that a business will have a plan.

Being locally owned and having one location decreases the likelihood that a business will have a plan (65% vs 87%).

More employees increases the likelihood of having a plan Over 100, 92% have a plan11 to 100, 77% have a plan1 to 10, 59% have a plan

Who Does Not Have a Plan?

Many households take the threat seriously

68% reported that they had a disaster preparedness plan

76% know the location of an emergency shelter

91% know the evacuation route from their home

82% know if an evacuation order covers their home

Households Respond to Severe Weather

However:

39% report that an evacuation order makes them “much more likely to evacuate

26% report that an evacuation order has “no effect on my decision”

18% are not sure if an evacuation order covers their home

Households Respond to Severe Weather

14% reported at least one time they did not evacuate when they should have

Why:

did not feel threatened (28%)

did not realize how bad the storm would be (22%)

thought the storm was not severe or close enough (15%).

While people are confident that they will make the right decision, people make mistakes.

Households Respond to Severe Weather

“Once you think your safety may be at risk, what are the most important considerations when deciding whether or not to evacuate?”

Strength of the hurricane (93%)

Direction of the hurricane (78%)

A mandatory evacuation order (67%)

People want to make their own decision but your evacuation orders are part of their decision-making process

Considerations

Things are getting better and families are more willing to plan for an emergency today

In our survey, 68% of respondents had a plan

After Hurricane Floyd, only 56% had a plan

After Hurricane Bonnie, only 49% had a plan

A Socioeconomic Impact Analysis for Hurricanes Bonnie, Dennis and Floyd by John C. Whitehead, Marieke Van Willigen, Bob Edwards, Kenneth Wilson and John Maiolo, the Final Report to North Carolina Division of Emergency Management (HMGP 1240-0012) and North Carolina Sea Grant (NCSU 1998-0617-08), June 2001.

Households Respond to Severe Weather

Most businesses and organizations take severe weather emergencies seriously.

They have plans they adopted because they thought they needed them

Their plans have been tested in real emergencies

Problems are concentrated in smaller, single location businesses

Takeaways for Discussion

Many households take severe weather events seriously but a significant minority does not.

Almost one person in 10 does not know the evacuation route from their home.

People seem to consider your evacuation orders as “an important piece of information” in making their evacuation decision.

People are confident in their decisions but they do make serious mistakes.

Things are getting better.

Takeaways for Discussion

http://www.ecu.edu/riskcomm

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