Human Health and Environmental Effects of the

Clear Skies Initiative

Clear Skies WorkshopJune 19, 2002

Clear Skies

Presentation Overview

§ The importance of PM2.5 - a multiple pollutant§ What’s new on health effects – and statistics

§ We are moving to implement the new NAAQS§ Most cost-effective approaches first§ What we know best§ This means regional strategies first

§ A clear alternative approach § A new regulatory baseline for power generation§ Overview of expected reductions and air quality benefits

New PM2.5 AQI Health Messages: A pollutant for all seasons

Ozone PM2.5

What's new in PM science?

• New PM Criteria Document will include a comprehensive evaluationof hundreds of new health studies

– Some exceptions, but generally appear to be consistent with studies from previous PM NAAQS review

– 3rd draft in May 2002, (www.epa.gov/ncea/partmatt.htm), review schedule extended

• Selected examples of important emerging studies that will be included in this ongoing evaluation of the evidence:

– HEI's NMMAPS reported association between premature death and PM10 across 90 largest U.S. cities (Samet et al. , 2000)

• Results can’t be explained by other pollutants, weather, or statistics• Some variability in PM effects estimates with region• BUT: very recent findings on statistical problems with the effects estimates (more later)

– HEI reanalysis of Harvard Six City and American Cancer Society studies confirmed findings of link between long-term PM2.5 /sulfate exposure and premature mortality from heart and lung diseases (Krewski et al., 2000)

– Major new Journal of American Medical Association study of ACS data expands and supports previous link between PM2.5 /sulfate exposure and cardiopulmonary deaths; new evidence of link with lung cancer deaths (Pope et al., 2002)

– Several new studies have reported links between ambient PM and specific cardiac effects, e.g., risk of heart attacks (Peters et al., 2001)

Potential PM2.5 Non-Attainment -- Current Data*

Nationwide:• 173 counties (82 million people) > PM2.5 NAAQS

East:• 157 counties (59 million people) >PM2.5 NAAQS

> 1815-1810-150-10

Concentration (ug/m3) (the new standard is 15ug/m3)

*Based on 1999-2000 incomplete data, 3 years data required for attainment determination

Urban v. Rural(Annual Average Concentrations)

Toronto (1997-99)Egbert (1994-99)

Abbotsford (1994-95)

Quaker City OH (1999)

Arendstville PA (1999)

Atlanta (1999)Yorkville (1999)Mexico City - Pedregal (1997)

Los Angeles (1995-96)

Fresno (1988-89)

Kern Wildlife Refuge (1988-89)

Sulfate

Nitrate

Ammonium

Black carbon

Organic carbon

Soil

Other

12.3 ug m-38.9 ug m-3

7.8 ug m-3

12.4 ug m-3

10.4 ug m-3

19.2 ug m-314.7 ug m-3

55.4 ug m-3

30.3 ug m-3

23.3 ug m-3

39.2 ug m-3

Washington DC (1996-99)14.5 ug m-3

Colorado Plateau (1996-99)3.0 ug m-3

Mexico City - Netzahualcoyotl (1997)

24.6 ug m-3

Esther (1995-99)

St. Andrews (1994-97)5.3 ug m -3

4.6 ug m -3

PM Composition in North America

NARSTO

Chemical Composition - Rural SitesIMPROVE/CASTNet Data (1997 - 1999)

Rural Sulfate Trends track Regional SOx Emissions

Early signs of nitrate substitution in wintertimeChemical Composition - Rural

PM2.5 and 8-hour Ozone Standards Attainment (current data*)

• Based on available 1999-2000 PM2.5 data, 157 counties in the East and 173 counties nationwide are likely to exceed the fine particle standard

• Currently 82 million people live in 173 counties with projected concentrations greater than 15 ug/m3 (the annual fine particle standard) (59 million in the East)

*1997-1999 ozone1999/2000 PM2.5--preliminary depiction base on two years of data. Three years are required for attainment demonstrations.

• There are currently 333 counties (306 counties in the east) estimated to exceed the 8-hour ozone standard.

• Currently 120 million people live in 333 counties with projected ozone concentrations greater than 85 ppb (the 8-hour ozone standard)

PM2.5 and 8-hour Ozone Standards Attainment (2010)

The Clear Skies Initiative would result in a substantial number of counties meeting the PM2.5 and 8-hour ozone standards sooner than they would compared to the existing Clean Air Act.

Fine particle attainment status in 2010:

• The Clear Skies Initiative would bring 34 additional counties (home to approximately 10 million people) into attainment with the fine particle standard (as compared to existing programs)

Ozone attainment status in 2010:

• The Clear Skies Initiative would bring 10 additional counties (home to over 7 million people) into attainment with the 8-hour ozone standard in 2010 (as compared to existing programs)

Base Case 2010

Clear Skies 2010

PM2.5 and 8-hour Ozone Standards Attainment (2020)Base Case 2020

Clear Skies 2020

Fine particle attainment status in 2020:

• The Clear Skies Initiative would bring 54 counties additional counties (home to approximately 21 million people) into attainment with the fine particle standard (as compared to existing programs)

Ozone attainment status in 2020:

• The Clear Skies Initiative would bring 8 additional counties (home to over 4 million people) into attainment with the 8-hour ozone standard (as compared to existing programs)

Fine Particle Concentrations (2020)

Notes: • Title IV reduced over 3 million tons of SO2 between

1990 and 1996 that are not captured by the improvements shown on the map above.

• Emissions from sources not affected by Title IV or the Clear Skies Initiative, such as mining and metals processing, are expected to increase under the Base Case and Clear Skies.

• Under Clear Skies fine particle concentrations in a large portion of the East and Midwest would improve more than 20% from current levels

• Clear Skies would reduce fine particle concentrations in the East and Midwest 10-20% beyond what is expected under existing programs

Percent Change 1996 vs. 2020 with Clear Skies

Percent Change 2020 Base Case vs. Clear Skies

Percent Reduction

(A positive percent reduction is a decrease, a negative percent reduction is an increase)

Visibility (2020)

• Under Clear Skies visibility in a large portion of the East and Midwest would improve 2-3 deciviews from current levels

• visibility along the southern Appalachian Mountains would improve more than 3 deciviews

• Clear Skies would improve visibility in the East and Midwest 1-2 deciviewsbeyond what is expected under existing programs

• Under Clear Skies the WRAP agreement will be honored and the emissions reductions are expected to take effect• allow future growth in the West to

occur without degrading visibility

Deciview Change

(An increase in deciview is an improvement in visibility; a decrease in deciview is a decrease in visibility.)

Deciview Change 1996 vs. 2020 with Clear Skies

Deciview Change 2020 Base Case vs. Clear Skies

• Acid deposition is still a regional problem

• Highest sulfate deposition occurs in the Midwest and northeastern United States, both

adjacent to and downwind of the highest emitting areas

• Impacts occur in both the eastern U.S. and mountainous areas of the West

Acid Rain: Overview

Deposition data measured by CASTNet and NADP, 1997-1999

Acidic surface waters in regions surveyed by the National Surface Water Survey

• Effects of acid deposition

include:

• Acidification of lakes and streams, making them unsuitable for fish and other aquatic life

• Damage to forests through acidification of soil, depletion of soil nutrients, and direct injury to tree leaves and needles

• Harm to material and cultural resources, including buildings, statues and monuments

• Nitrogen deposition contributes to nutrient over-enrichment (eutrophication) along eastern and Gulf coasts and to excess nitrogen in sensitive forests.

• Two thirds of U.S. estuaries (about 84) experience symptoms of moderate to high

eutrophication (excessive loadings of nutrients)

• Excess nitrogen leads to eutrophication of coastal waters

• Roughly 10-40% of the nitrogen reaching East and Gulf coast estuaries is transported and

deposited via the atmosphere

Nitrogen Deposition in Forests and Coastal Waters

Wet Nitrate Deposition to Sensitive Resources

Deposition data measured by CASTNet and NADP, 1997-1999

• High nitrogen deposition

levels can lead to loss of

soil nutrients and declines in

sensitive forest ecosystems

• Nitrogen saturation occurs

when too much nitrogen

enters sensitive forest soils

and begins to leach out,

stripping soil nutrients

Sulfur Deposition (2020)

Notes:• Title IV reduced over 3 million tons of SO2 between

1990 and 1996 that are not captured by the improvements shown on these maps.

• Under Clear Skies, sulfur deposition in much of the east would be reduced 30-60% from current levels

• Clear Skies would reduce sulfur deposition in the east more than 30% beyond what is expected under existing programs

Percent Change 1996 vs. 2020 with Clear Skies

Percent Change 2020 Base Case vs. Clear Skies

Percent Reduction

(A positive percent reduction is a decrease, a negative percent reduction is an increase)

Nitrogen Deposition (2020)

• Under Clear Skies nitrogen deposition in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic will be reduced up to 60% from current levels

• The large reductions in nitrogen deposition on the West coast occur in the Base Case as well (due to the Tier II and Diesel Rules)

• Clear Skies would reduce nitrogen deposition in the East 15-30% beyond what is expected under existing programs

Percent Change 1996 vs. 2020 with Clear Skies

Percent Change 2020 Base Case vs. Clear Skies

Percent Reduction

(A positive percent reduction is a decrease, a negative percent reduction is an increase)

• Clear Skies would allow growth to occur in the West without increasing NOx emissions

Acid Status of Lakes in the Adirondacks

• Lakes in the Adirondack Mountains generally respond relatively rapidly to changes in emissions and deposition (“direct response”), with larger decreases in deposition yielding significant improvement in lake condition

• Under existing programs, lake conditions improve but 12% of lakes would remain chronically acidic in 2030

• With Clear Skies, lake conditions would improve dramatically by 2030: only 3% of lakes would remain chronically acidic

Adirondack Lakes

21%

12%

3%

0

5

10

15

20

25

current Base (2030) Clear Skies (2030)

% o

f la

kes

chro

nic

ally

aci

dic

• However, a significant proportion of Adirondack lakes would still become acidic periodically due to seasonal or storm events

• Lakes in the Northeast region (including Adirondack lakes) contain both “direct” and “delayed response” systems; some lakes may take longer than 2030 to completely respond to deposition changes considered here

• Under existing programs, lake condition improves slightly in the Northeast by 2030, but 6% of lakes remain chronically acidic

• With the Clear Skies Initiative, chronic acidity would be virtually eliminated by 2030 but some lakes would still become acidic periodically due to seasonal or storm events

Acid Status of Lakes in the Northeast

Northeast

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Current Base (2030) Clear Skies (2030)

% o

f la

kes

chro

nic

ally

aci

dic

• Due to the geologic age of the southeastern landscape, streams in the Southeast are predominantly “delayed response” systems.

• Under existing programs, stream condition gets worse:• 8% more streams become acidic periodically due to seasonal or storm events by 2030• Stream condition continues to get worse beyond 2030; by 2050, the number of chronically

acidic streams increases 2%

• Under Clear Skies the rate of stream acidification would slow:• only 6% of streams would become acidic periodically due to seasonal or storm events by

2030• there would be no increase in chronically acidic streams between2030 and 2050

Acid Status of Streams in the Southeast

• These results demonstrate that large reductions in emissions and deposition, such as those under Clear Skies, are necessary simply to slow the long-term decline in stream condition in the Southeast

Southeast

17% 17% 17%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Current Base (2030) Clear Skies (2030)

% o

f st

ream

s ch

ron

ical

ly a

cid

ic

Regional Health and Visibility Economic Benefits (2010)

• The Clear Skies Initiative would result in substantial early human health and visibility benefits

• The total economic benefits of the Clear Skies Initiative would be $44 billion in 20101

• $43 billion in health benefits• $1 billion in visibility benefits

• An alternative estimate would result in health benefits of $5 billion in 2010

Total PM-Related Health and Visibility Benefits in 2010 Under the Clear Skies Initiative

Northern Midwest($13 Billion)

North Atlantic($15 Billion)

South Atlantic($8 Billion)

Southern Midwest

($7 Billion)

West($1 Billion)

1The two sets of benefits estimates presented here reflect alternative assumptions and analytical approaches regarding quantifying and evaluating the effects of airborne particles on public health. The Base Estimate relies on estimates of the potential cumulative effect of long-term exposure to particles on mortality, while the Alternative Estimate presumes that PM effects on mortality are limited to those that accumulate over much shorter time periods. All such estimates are subject to a number of assumptions and uncertainties. It is of note that, based on recent preliminary findings from the Health Effects Institute, the magnitude of the short-term mortality (alternative estimates) and hospital/ER admissions estimates (both estimates) may be overstated. The alternatives also use different approaches to value health effects damages. The key assumptions, uncertainties, and valuation methodologies underlying the approaches used to produce these results are detailed in a benefits analysis technical support document that will accompany the benefits analyses for the Clear Skies proposal.

Regional Health Benefits (2010)

• The Clear Skies Initiative would result in substantial early human health and visibility benefits

• Nationwide the Clear Skies Initiative would annually prevent (by 2010)1:• approximately 6,000

premature deaths• approximately 4,000 cases of

chronic bronchitis• An alternative estimate would

result in approximately 3,800 premature deaths prevented annually

Northern Midwest(1900)

North Atlantic(2200)

South Atlantic(1100)

Southern Midwest(1000)

West(100)

Long-Term Change in Mortality Incidence in 2010 Due to Reductions in PM2.5 Under the Clear Skies

Initiative

1The two sets of benefits estimates presented here reflect alternative assumptions and analytical approaches regarding quantifying and evaluating the effects of airborne particles on public health. The Base Estimate relies on estimates of the potential cumulative effect of long-term exposure to particles on mortality, while the Alternative Estimate presumes that PM effects on mortality are limited to those that accumulate over much shorter time periods. All such estimates are subject to a number of assumptions and uncertainties. It is of note that, based on recent preliminary findings from the Health Effects Institute, the magnitude of the short-term mortality (alternative estimates) and hospital/ER admissions estimates (both estimates) may be overstated. The alternatives also use different approaches to value health effects damages. The key assumptions, uncertainties, and valuation methodologies underlying the approaches used to produce these results are detailed in a benefits analysis technical support document that will accompany the benefits analyses for the Clear Skies proposal.

Regional Health and Visibility Economic Benefits (2020)

Total PM-Related Health and Visibility Benefits in 2020 Under the Clear Skies Initiative

Northern Midwest($27 Billion)

North Atlantic($33 Billion)

South Atlantic($20 Billion)

Southern Midwest

($15 Billion)

West($1 Billion)

• The total economic benefits of the Clear Skies Initiative would be $96 billion in 20201:• $93 billion in health

benefits• $3 billion in visibility

benefits

• An alternative estimate would result in health benefits of $11 billion in 2020

• Using either estimate, the benefits significantly outweigh the costs

1The two sets of benefits estimates presented here reflect alternative assumptions and analytical approaches regarding quantifying and evaluating the effects of airborne particles on public health. The Base Estimate relies on estimates of the potential cumulative effect of long-term exposure to particles on mortality, while the Alternative Estimate presumes that PM effects on mortality are limited to those that accumulate over much shorter time periods. All such estimates are subject to a number of assumptions and uncertainties. It is of note that, based on recent preliminary findings from the Health Effects Institute, the magnitude of the short-term mortality (alternative estimates) and hospital/ER admissions estimates (both estimates) may be overstated. The alternatives also use different approaches to value health effects damages. The key assumptions, uncertainties, and valuation methodologies underlying the approaches used to produce these results are detailed in a benefits analysis technical support document that will accompany the benefits analyses for the Clear Skies proposal.

Regional Health Benefits (2020)

Northern Midwest(3400)

North Atlantic(4100)

South Atlantic(2500)

Southern Midwest(1900)

West(100)

• Nationwide the Clear Skies Initiative would annually prevent (by 2020)1:

• approximately 12,000 premature deaths

• over 7,000 cases of chronic bronchitis

• An alternative estimate would result in approximately 7,000 premature deaths prevented annually by 2020

Long-Term Change in Mortality Incidence in 2020 Due to Reductions in PM2.5 Under the Clear

Skies Initiative

1The two sets of benefits estimates presented here reflect alternative assumptions and analytical approaches regarding quantifying and evaluating the effects of airborne particles on public health. The Base Estimate relies on estimates of the potential cumulative effect of long-term exposure to particles on mortality, while the Alternative Estimate presumes that PM effects on mortality are limited to those that accumulate over much shorter time periods. All such estimates are subject to a number of assumptions and uncertainties. It is of note that, based on recent preliminary findings from the Health Effects Institute, the magnitude of the short-term mortality (alternative estimates) and hospital/ER admissions estimates (both estimates) may be overstated. The alternatives also use different approaches to value health effects damages. The key assumptions, uncertainties, and valuation methodologies underlying the approaches used to produce these results are detailed in a benefits analysis technical support document that will accompany the benefits analyses for the Clear Skies proposal.

Human Health Benefits of Reducing Fine Particulate Matter: Non-Mortality Benefits1

1Based on recent preliminary findings from the Health Effects Institute, the magnitude of the short-term mortality (alternative estimates) and hospital/ER admissions estimates (both estimates) may be overstated. The keyassumptions, uncertainties, and valuation methodologies underlying the approaches used to produce these results are detailed in a benefits analysis technical support document that will accompany the benefits analyses for the Clear Skies Initiative.

• Clear Skies would result in significant early benefits in 2010:

• 3,900 avoided cases of chronic bronchitis

• 5,600 fewer hospitalizations/emergency room visits for cardiovascular and respiratory conditions

• 7.2 million fewer days with respiratory illnesses and symptoms, including work loss days, restricted activity days, and says with asthma attacks

• By 2020, Clear Skies would prevent:

• 7,400 cases of chronic bronchitis

• 10,500 hospitalizations/emergency room visits for cardiovascularand respiratory conditions

• 13.5 million days with respiratory illnesses and symptoms, including work loss days, restricted activity days, and days with asthma attacks