Identification

An equation is said to be identified if we have enough informationto obtain estimates of its structural parameters.

A model is said to be identified if all its equations are identified.

Not all models are identified e.g. the demand and supply model:

1 2 1

1 2 2

t t t

t t t

q p u

q p u

There is no way to disentangle the demand and supply curvesin this case.

q

D

S

S

S

S

p

12

34

The exogenous variables of a model help to identify itsequations

To identify the demand curve we need to find a variablewhich affects supply but not demand.

Note that establishing that an equation is identified tells usthat it can be estimated. It does not tell us how to estimate it.

The simultaneous equations model in matrix form

The structural form of the SEM model can be written in the following form:

t t ty x u B

where y is a Gx1 vector of endogenous variables, x isa Kx1 vector of exogenous variables and u is a Gx1vector of random errors.

B and Γ are GxG and GxK matrices of coefficients.

For example, we could write the demand-supply model as:

1,1 32

2,1 32

101

01tt

ttt

t

uqy

upw

If the B matrix is invertible then we can solve for the reducedform of the model as:

1 1

1

t t t

t t

y x u

x u

B B

B

where Π is the GxK matrix of reduced-form coefficients.

Relationship between the reduced form and the structural form

An equation is identified if there is enough information in thereduced form to solve for the structural form.

The relationship between the reduced form and structural formparameters can be written:

1

0

= B

B

If there are no restrictions on the structural form then it willbe impossible to estimate. We can determine the number of restrictions we need as follows.

We can write the relationship between the structural and reduced forms as:

0 or 0I

B A W =

The i’th row of the matrix A (αi) contains the structural parametersof equation i. Without restrictions there are G+K structural parameters in each equation. To solve for these we have K equations which are defined by:

0i W

Since we have G+K unknowns and only K equations, it followsthat we need R≥G where R is the number of restrictions.

Types of Restriction

Almost all equations make use of a normalisation restrictioni.e. the coefficient on the LHS variable is set equal to one. Thisreduces the number of restrictions required to R ≥ G-1.

Exclusion Restrictions occur when we leave a variable out of theequation (set its coefficient equal to zero). If exclusion restrictionsare the only type used, then we have R = (G-g) + (K-k) and the condition for identification becomes K-k ≥ g-1.

This is the order condition for identification.

(Note that g and k are the numbers of endogenous and exogenousvariables included in equation i).

The order condition for identification

If K-k = g-1 then the equation is said to be just identified.

If K-k > g -1 then the equation is said to be over identified.

If K-k < g-1 then the equation is said to be under identified.

Note that the order condition is a necessary but not sufficientcondition for identification when exclusion restrictions are the only restrictions applied.

Note also that equations can be identified by other types of restriction.

1 2 3 1,

1 2 3 2,

2, 2, 2, 1

t t t t

t t t t

q p y u

q p w u

G K g k

In the following example, the demand curve isjust identified

1 2 1,

1 2 3 4 2,

2, 2, 2, 0

t t t

t t t t t

q p u

q p w y u

G K g k

In the next example, the demand curve is overidentified

1 2 3 4 1,

1 2 3 2,

2, 2, 2, 2

t t t t t

t t t t

q p y w u

q p w u

G K g k

Finally, in this example, the demand curve isnot identified.

If an equation is just identified then we can obtain uniqueestimates of the structural parameters from the reduced form.

This is known as the method of Indirect Least Squares.