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5/27/2018 IEA WEO 2012 Summary Slides
1/13
Booz & Company
This document is confidential and is intended solely forthe use and information of the client to whom it is addressed.
London, Dusseldorf November 2012 Briefing Document
IEA World Energy Outlook 2012Selected slides and themes
DRAFT
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Summary of selected themes from WEO 2012
The global energy map is changing, with potentially far-reaching consequences for energy
markets and trade. It is being redrawn by the resurgence in oil and gas production in the UnitedStates and could be further reshaped by a retreat from nuclear power in some countries,continued rapid growth in the use of wind and solar technologies and by the global spread ofunconventional gas production. Perspectives for international oil markets hinge on Iraqs success
in revitalising its oil sector
Taking all new developments and policies into account, the world is still failing to put the
global energy system onto a more sustainable path. Global energy demand grows by morethan one-third over the period to 2035 in the New Policies Scenario (our central scenario), withChina, India and the Middle East accounting for 60% of the increase
Energy developments in US are profound and their effect will be felt well beyond NorthAmerica and the energy sector. Recent rebound in US oil and gas production, driven byupstream technologies that are unlocking light tight oil and shale gas resources, is spurringeconomic activitywith less expensive gas and electricity prices giving industry a competitiveedgeand steadily changing the role of North America in global energy trade. By around 2020,the United States is projected to become the largest global oil producer (overtaking Saudi Arabiauntil the mid-2020s) and starts to see the impact of new fuel-efficiency measures in transport. Theresult is a continued fall in US oil imports
DATE1
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012
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Selected slides
DATE2
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0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Million toe
203520302020201520101990
World Primary Energy Demand by Fuel19902035 New Policies Scenario
Bioenergy HydroOther renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal
CAGR20102035
7.7%1.6%
2.0%1.9%
1.6%
0.5%
0.8%
22%
Oil
32%
Gas
Coal
27%6%Nuclear
2%
Hydro10%
Bioenergy
1%
Other renewables
World Primary Energy Demand by Fuel2010 New Policies Scenario
World Primary Energy Demand by Fuel2035 New Policies Scenario
Gas and renewables will have the higher growth rates in globalenergy demand and fossil fuels will still dominate in 2035
7%
24%
Oil
27%Gas
Coal
25%
Nuclear 3%
Hydro 11%
Bioenergy
4%
Other renewables
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012; Booz & Company analysis
5/27/2018 IEA WEO 2012 Summary Slides
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0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Africa
2015
Asia
E. Europe /Eurasia
Asia Oceania
Europe
Americas
Latin America
Middle East
Million toe
201020001990 2020 2030 2035
World Primary Energy Demand by Region19902035 New Policies Scenario
The non OECD countries and especially Asia will be the drivers ofenergy demand growth
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012; Booz & Company analysis
OECD
NONOEC
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Cumulative Investment in Oil Infrastructure2012 - 2035
3%
Other
10%
Refining
87%
UpstreamTotal = US$10.2trn
Some US$19 trillion will need to be invested in oil and gasinfrastructure and particularly in upstream
Cumulative Investment in Gas Infrastructure2012 - 2035
9%
Other
67%Upstream
24%Transmission and Distribution
Total = US$8.7trn
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012; Booz & Company analysis
Average capex spend ofUS$614bn/y. Required to
increase capacity to meet higherdemand & higher capital cost of
new sources ofsupply (deep water and
unconventional)
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Million bbls/d
BunkersLatin America
Africa
Middle East
Asia
E.Europe /Eurasia
Asia Oceania
Europe
Americas
2035203020252020201520111990
World Oil Demand19902035 New Policies Scenario
Global oil demand is forecast to grow at 0.6% CAGR between 2011and 2035 to reach ~100m bbls/d
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012; Booz & Company analysis
OECD
NONOEC
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Remaining Technically Recoverable Oil ResourcesConventional & End 2011 (Bn bbls)
16%
NGLs
84%
Crude OilTotal = 2,678bn bbls
Globally there are some 6 trillion bbls of recoverable oil reserves(between conventional and unconventional)
8%
Light Tight Oil
59%EHOB
34%Kerogen Oil
Total = 3,193bn bbls
Note: EHOB = extra-heavy oil and bitumenSource: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012; Booz & Company analysis
Remaining Technically Recoverable Oil ResourcesUnconventional & End 2011 (Bn bbls)
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0 50 100 150 200 250 300
50 250100 150 200
Canada
Bn bbls
Venezuela
Kuwait
UAE
Nigeria
Libya
Russia
Years
0
Saudi Arabia
300
Iraq
Iran
Proven Oil Reserves in Top 10 CountriesEnd 2011
Proven Reserves
R/P (bottom axis
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012; OPEC; IEA World Energy Outlook 2012; Booz & Company analysis
With its large reserves of extra heavy oil in the Orinoco belt,Venezuela has now surpassed Saudi Arabia
Civil war in Libya in 2011
dramatically reducedproduction hence the high
R/P ratio
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2015 2030 2035
Million bbls/d
2020 202520111990
World Oil Supply by Type19902035 New Policies Scenario
Going forward the contribution of unconventionals to global oilsupply will be modest
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012; Booz & Company analysis
UNCONVENTION
CONVENTIONA
Natural gas liquidsGas-to-liquids Light tight oilCoal-to-liquids Venezuela extra-heavy oil Canada oil sands Crude oil
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Non-OPEC Oil ProductionLeading Countries 1990 - 2035
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Million bbls/d
20152011 2020 2025 2030 20351990
Canada United StatesBrazilKazakhstan
OPEC Oil ProductionLeading Countries 1990 - 2035
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1990
Million bbls/d
2015 20352011 2020 2025 2030
IranVenezuela Saudi ArabiaLibya Iraq
US and Brazil will become major oil producers outside of OPECwhile Iraq will demonstrate greatest growth in OPEC
By 2020 US will producemore than Saudi Arabia
Iraq growing production at~5% CAGR between 2011-
2035
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012; Booz & Company analysis
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however, it is the impact of shale gas revolution on US which isreshaping the global energy landscape
Shale gas revolution is boosting tight oil productionwith US becoming leading oil producer
Production growth stimulating US economicactivity. Rising employment in extractive sector(growing at 6% CAGR between 2005 and 2012)
US benefiting from advantage of lower energyprices and feedstock prices which is boostingcapital investment, particularly in chemicals (Shelllooking to build ethane cracker in Pennsylvania)
However, there are concerns around:
Sustainability of this growth. Environmental
impact of fracking and weaker oil prices couldimpact production economics
US foreign policy role in Middle East given itsgrowing energy independence. Will China stepinto breach as US extricates itself?
DATE11
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
000s bbls/d
11,000
US Oil Production1965 - 2011
US forecast thit 11m bbls/
by 2020
100
120
140160
180
200
2012
2011
+6%
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
000s
2010
2007
2008
2009
Employees in US Oil & Gas Extraction industry20002012 (Oct. YTD)
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012; Bureau of Labor Statistics; BP Statistical review; Booz & Company analysis
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Upstream Oil and Gas Investment by CompanySelected Players - 2011 vs. 2012
2012 (US$bn)
2011 (US$bn)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
US$bn
Exxon
Mo
bil
Gazprom
Pe
tro
bras
Chevron En
i
Conoco
Phillips
Statoil
BP
Pemex
To
tal
Shel
l
Sinopec
CNOOC
Occ
iden
tal
BG
Group
Rosnef
t
Lu
koi
l
Suncor
Apac
he
Pe
troc
hina
According to an IEA survey, leading companies are broadlyexpected to increase upstream capex in 2012
Worldwide upstream oil and gasinvestment is budgeted to rise by around8% in 2012 reaching a new record of $619
billion
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012; Booz & Company analysis