Upload
cooper-bryers
View
221
Download
3
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)1
The German labour market in a comparative perspective – with special reference to the employment of older
persons
Presentation for the conference on ‘The European Employment Strategy – Opportunities and Limits for the New Member States'
Budapest, 20th October 2005
Susanne Kraatz, Thomas Rhein
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)2
Outline
The employment targets of the EES
Germany‘s labour market performanceEast GermanyThe ageing society and older workers
German policy responses
The ECE member countries in comparisonAge-related employment: the youth and the elderly
Conclusions
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)3
Achieving full employment ->
Overall employment rate of 70 % Female employment rate of 60 % Older workers‘ employment rate of 50 % - raising the average exit rate by five years
Improving quality and productivity at work
Strengthening social and territorial cohesion
The European Employment Strategy (EES) as Part of the Lisbon Agenda
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)4
Performance of the German Labour Market (1):
Germany EU-15 EU-25
Overall rate 65.0 64.7 63.3
Female rate 59.2 56.8 55.7
55-64 41.8 42.5 41.0
15-24 (2003) 44.0 39.7 36.7
Source: Eurostat
Employment rates, 2004
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)5
Overall Employment Rates, 2004, in Comparison
75,7
73,172,1 71,6
65,0 64,763,3
56
5860
6264
66
6870
7274
76
DK NL S UK DE EU -15 EU - 25
Source: Eurostat
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)6
Performance of the German Labour Market (2):
Germany EU-15 EU-25
Overall Rate 9.5 8.1 9.0
Female Rate 10.5 9.3 10.2
55-64 12.8 6.8 7.0
15-24 15.1 16.6 18.6
Source: Eurostat
Unemployment rates, 2004
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)7
Slight improvement in terms of (un)employment after 1997, but rising unemployment since 2001 and steady fall in „standard“ (full-time, permanent) jobs
Employment rates below EU targets and other EU countries, especially for older workers
Situation for younger people still relatively good
Unemployment is conceived as the biggest problem of Germany‘s society
Performance of the German Labour Market (3):
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)8
Low growth rates
High (non-wage) labour costs (social charges)West Germany: 32 €; East Germany: 19 €; Slovenia: 9 €; Slovak Rep.: 3 € (2002)
Growing international competition
Too much regulation, e.g. employment protection, too generous social benefits (disputed)
Problem groups and regions:- East Germany- Older people- Unskilled workers
Aspects of German Labour Market Problems
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)9
The East German Labour Market (1):
Overall Employment rates
50,0
55,0
60,0
65,0
70,0
75,0
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Persistent differences in employment rates…
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)10
The East German Labour Market (2):
Unemployment (national definition)
0,02,04,06,08,0
10,012,014,016,018,020,022,0
West Germany
East Germany
… and unemployment rates…
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)11
The East German Labour Market (3):
… despite massive East-West migration …- More than 3 million East Germans went West since 1989, mainly young people
- Net emigration since 1989: more than 1.5 million persons
… and huge financial West-East Transfers- Almost 1.3 billion Euros between 1991 and 2003
High female labour force participation
Lower wages than in the West…
… but also low productivity, apart from some regions- East German GDP per Head at 64.3 % of West level (2004)
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)12
The „Greying“ of the Labour Market
Declining birth rates and rising life expectancy…
…constitute the big challenge of the future…- not only for Germany, but also for other European countries
… and will lead to a shrinking and ageing workforce
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)13
Projections of the potential labour force in Germany
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
45,0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Scenarioswith increase of activity rates and annual net
migration of:
+300.000
+200.000
+100.000
no net migration
"Basic" scenario with constant activity rates, no net migration
Source:IAB-Kurzbericht No. 11/2005
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)14
Employment of Older Workers (1)
Increasing employment of older workers will be crucial to meet the demographic challenge
Poor employment performance of older workers also constitutes a threat for financing social security
West Germany: „Early-Exit“ Culture since the 70‘s: „Older workers should give way to the youth“
Early exit from working life via different channels: - Pre-retirement, early retirement, unemployment insurance, also
in East Germany since the 90‘s
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)15
Employment of Older Workers (2)
The Gender aspect: Few younger women working Few older women working
- Employment rate 55-64 - male: 48.8%; female: 29.8 % (2004)
The skills aspect: Low labour force participation of the low-skilled, who retire early
But: Rising awareness (supported by the European Employment Strategy) that the burden of early exit will be too high in the future
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)16
Agenda 2010: A comprehensive reform package (2003)Tax reform: lower rates for all
Health care, pension reform: stabilisation of labour burden
Family and gender policy: work-life-balance
Labour market reformsProactive concept, simplification and cutbacks in benefits
Reorganisation of PES
Moderate liberalization
Increasing bargaining at company level
German Policy Responses... (1)
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)17
German Policy Responses (2):New strategies for older workers
Beginning paradigm shift : From early to late(r) exit
Pensions: 1. Financial incentives 2. Gradual increase of age for early retirement (unemployment, part time work) = 60 -> 63
Active Labour Market policy: Training, Subsidies for older unemployedNew projects
Liberalisation of fixed term contracts (52+ instead of 58+)= De facto Liberalisation of dismissal
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)18
German Policy Responses (3):New strategies for older workers
Employability: Strategy for Lifelong Learning, INQUA
Part-time work for a smooth transition
Family policy: To close the gender gap for the future
Change of attitudes: Campaign: 50+ - they are competent Pro-age
Germany has developed a more comprehensive strategy …
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)19
…but persisting lack of consistency
Employers use old age part-time work to reduce jobs.
…are not ready to engage older workers.
The state did not close the path of early retirement.
did not yet introduce an anti-discrimination law.
… as a consequence of economic and political conditions.
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)20
Why „bigbang“ reforms are not possible in Germany:
Federalism: Joint-decision trap Frequent elections
Coalitions: In the search of stable majorities
Party system: The dilemma of „Catch-all“ parties
Interest groups: Strong interest groups, lack of consensus
Political culture:The loss of confidence
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)21
East Germany (1): What is different from ECE countries?
Postulate of equal living conditions-> wages growing faster than productivity.
Fast economic, political and social union in 1990-> breakdown of the East German
economic structures.
The costful program „Reconstruction East“ -> did not solve structural problems
…. new regional disparities between the two halves of Germany.
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)22
East Germany (2) Labour market policy:From special to more equal Responses
Special Responses:
Transitional allowances and benefits
(Re-)training offers
Subsidized employment: ABM, SAM
Since 2004 only few special measures left (BSI)
... smoothing, not solving the problems of unemployment
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)23
East Germany (3): The search for alternative solutions
The individuum: Migration, commuting or inactivity.
The companies: Less collective agreements.
The state: Discussing the model of a special economic zone.
… resembles ECE countries
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)24
ECE member Countries (1): Real Growth and GDP per Head
LV EE LT HU SK PL SI CZ DE
Real GDP 2004 (1995=100)
173 172 165 144 144 144 141 121 113
GDP per Head, 2004 (in Euros, Prices of 1995)
2800 3600 2300 4900 4000 3900 10900 5000 26500
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)25
ECE member Countries (2): Employment Rates, 2004
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Overall EmploymentRate
Female EmploymentRate
Employment Rate 55-64
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)26
Frontrunners join or pass (East-)Germany
Overall Employment: Czech Republic
Older: Baltic States, Czech Republic
Unemployment: Hungary and Slovenia
…laggards (Poland, Slovakia) are loosing ground.
Even greater heterogeneity concerning older workers: Apparently following the international pattern:
The stronger the labour market, the better the chances for all.
ECE member Countries (3): Increasing heterogeneity
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)27
ECE member Countries (4): Youth employment as a Challenge
The youth employment rate 2004:
Frontrunners -> Latvia (31 %), Czech Republic (30%)
Estonia and Slovenia (29 %)
Laggards -> Poland (21 %) and Lithuania (22 %)
… Is much lower than in East Germany (44 %).
… higher employment rate of older does not harm
the chances of the young.
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)28
Strategies for older workers in ECE Countries (1)
A glance at the Czech Republic and Estonia:
Reforming the pensions was crucial.
The often underestimated role of Gender
Active Labour Market Policies: Discrimination of older unemployed
Employability and „soft measures“ –> Comprehensive action plans
most of the implementation to come.
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)29
Strategies for older workers in ECE Countries (2):Similarities and differences
Similar solutions, similar risk as in (East-)Germany:
One-sided instead of comprehensive practice
Differences: Etatism bears problems of implementation
Networking across levels and actors has to be evolved
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)30
Strong differences in GDP per capita between ECE countries and Germany…
… but catching-up is under way (new „Celtic Tigers“?)
ECE countries are far from being a homogeneous group
East Germany: financial transfers and labour emigration are not sufficient to overcome the transformation crisis
Conclusions (1)
Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (Institute for Employment Research)
Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Federal Employment Agency, Germany)31
Some assets of ECE member countries: Labour costs are low
Less regulation of the labour market
Political structures are less sclerotic
Elite consensus about Europeanization
Common challenges:- Low employment rates, high unemployment (not everywhere!)- Ageing society Need for a lifecycle approach to work, as proposed by the Employment Guidelines of the EU- Comprehensive approach towards employment of older workers is
needed
Conclusions (2)