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Interlinkages : Global => Regional CTM
Relevance for medium and long term air quality studies
A. Colette, F. Meleux, B. Bessagnet [INERIS, France]
C. Granier [NOAA, US / CNRS, France]
O. Hodnebrog [CICERO, Norway]
M. Gauss [Met.no, Norway]
& the CityZen team
Background / Overview
Some of the scientific objectives of R&G-CTM converge
R-CTM:
• Long-term studies
G-CTM:
• Increase spatial resolution, towards hotspot focus
How do they compare ?
Which synergies can be sought ?
Sensitivity of RCTM to Bound. Conditions: frequency
1-yr Chimere simulations with:
monthly or 3-hrly Mozart fields
Results:
Significant impact on the O3 variability
Mainly in the outskirts of the domain
O3 std.dev.
(ppbv)
Schere et al., AE 2011 [AQMEII]
3-hrly BC Monthly 3-hrly- Monthly
Sensitivity of RCTM to Bound. Conditions : model
5 different global fields to drive Chimere:
INCA monthly
OsloCTM2 6hr / monthly
MOZART 24hr / monthly
Results
NOx insensitive (short lifetime)
The model matters as much as the frequency
Both daily means and max are affected
NO2 O3
Daily mean Daily max
INCA/mon 18.7 8.23
Mozart/24hr 17.4 6.64
Mozart/mon 18.2 6.96
OsloCTM2/6hr 16.8 5.86
OsloCTM2/mon 17.7 6.57
O3 Bias (µg/m3) at suburban stations
AQ Hindcast: RCTM vs GCTM
Europe / 1998-2007
6 chemistry transport models
4 RCTM:
• Bolchem, Chimere, Emep, Eurad
2 GCTM:
• Mozart, CTM2UIO
Evaluation
Similar scores
Trends
O3 titration captured
Colette et al., ACP 2011
Seasonal
cycle of O3
(µg/m3)
O3 trend
(µg/m3/yr)
AQ Hindcast: GCTM / RCTM Synergy
Setup
Chimere
• daily BCs from Mozart
Mozart
O3 trend
Broad features captured by GCTM
RCTM improve representation of
urban hotspots and leewards
Differences over the sea illustrate the
challenge in the consistency of
emission
Mozart
Chimere
MOZART daily BC
O3 trend
(µg/m3/yr)
AQ Projections: RCTM vs GCTM
Setup
2030 versus 2005
GEA, IIASA
Scenario
• no climate policy, CLE AQ
4 RCTM, 2 GCTM
Results: O3 change
Decrease over mediterranean
Increase where NOx-staurated
Consensus accross most models
Chimere Bolchem
Emep Eurad
Mozart OsloCTM2
Delta O3
(µg/m3)
Mozart / CH4 RCP8.5
Discussion
Practicalities of Global/Regional interactions
Consistency of emissions
Issue for PM (BC/OC vs PM2.5)
Scientific objectives
Case studies / Forecasts (MACC-2)
Downscaling the S/R relationships
• Sensitivity
• Real-world hindcasts
Projections
Perspectives: Euro-Delta III / Hindcasts
Rationale
RCTM intercomparison exercise
UNECE/TFMM
Objective
Hindcast
• 1990; 1999; 2008
Dynamic evaluation
• changes in chemical regimes
Models :
EMEP, CHIMERE, MATCH, COSMO,
CAMx, REM3, FARM?, LOTOS?
Implementation challenges:
Emission inventory for 1990 (PM)
Boundary conditions
Opportunity for HTAP:
Focus on a period with sharp
regional emission and background
change
Ensemble of regional models
Downscaling attribution of trends
Additional material
Coupling G&R CTMs: Methodological aspects
Chimere now operates with input data from:
Mozart, OsloCTM2, Match, LMDZ/INCA,
GEOS-Chem, GOCART
Monthly, Daily, 6-hourly, …
Illustrative list of species :
O3, CO, NO2, NO, HNO3, PAN, CH4,
C2H6, C3H6, C5H8, HCHO, CH3CHO,
SO2, NH3
BC, OC, SO4+, NO3-, NH4+
Dust, Sea Salt
Main Issues:
Consistency of emissions
Particulate matter (BC/OC vs PM)
Consistency of meteorology
Anthropogenic NOx emissions (in kg/m2/s).
EMEP emissions merged with RCP8.5 for 2007.
(Granier et al., pers. comm.)
AQ Projection: GCTM / RCTM Synergy
Setup
2030, no climate policy
Chimere
Mozart
Mozart with RCP8.5 CH4
Results:
RCTM/GCTM synergy should be sought
to account for background changes
Chimere
Mozart Mozart / CH4 RCP8.5
Perspectives: MACC2 / Forecasts - case studies
Regional forecasts with boun. cond. from :
C-IFS ( DA), MOZART, TM5
Hourly, 3-hourly
Up to 4 days ahead
24h with data assimilation (satellite and in-situ)
1.125 °x1.125°
Regional reanalyses with boun. cond. from :
IFS-MOZART re-analysis (2003-2010)
3-hourly
List of species :
O3, CO, NO2, NO, HNO3, PAN, CH4, C2H6,
C5H8, HCHO, SO2,
BC, OC, SO4+, NO3-, NH3+
Dust, Sea Salt
