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www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Howard Gruenspecht, Acting Administrator
September 19, 2011 | Washington, DC
International Energy Outlook 2011
Key findings in the IEO2011 Reference case
2Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011
• World energy consumption increases by 53% between 2008 and
2035 with half of the increase attributed to China and India
• Renewables are the world’s fastest-growing energy source, at 2.8%
per year; renewables share of world energy grows to roughly 15% in
2035
• Fossil fuels continue to supply almost 80% of world energy use in
2035
• Liquid fuels remain the largest energy source worldwide through
2035, but the oil share of total energy declines to 28% in 2035, as
sustained high oil prices dampen demand and encourage fuel
switching where possible and modest use of liquid biofuels
Key findings in the IEO2011 Reference case (continued)
3
• Increasing supplies of unconventional natural gas support growth in
projected worldwide gas use. Global natural gas consumption grows
by 1.6% per year, and projected natural gas use in 2035 is 8 percent
higher than in last year’s outlook
• Worldwide energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rise 43 percent
between 2008 and 2035, reaching 43.2 billion metric tons in 2035
Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011
Non-OECD nations drive the increase in energy demand
4
world energy consumption
quadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011
0
100
200
300
400
500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Non-OECD
OECD244
260
482
288
History Projections2008
Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011
China and India account for about half of the world increase in
energy use
5
world energy consumption
quadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011
0
100
200
300
400
1990 2000 2008 2015 2025 2035
Non-OECD Asia Other Non-OECD OECD
Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011
History Projections
Growth in income and population drive rising energy use; energy
intensity improvements moderate increases in energy demand
6
average annual change (2008-2035)
percent per year
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
U.S. OECD Europe
Japan South Korea
China India Brazil Middle East
Africa Russia
Energy Intensity GDP per capita Population
Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011
Renewables are the fastest growing source of energy
consumption
7
world energy consumption by fuel
quadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Liquids
(including biofuels)
Renewables
(excluding biofuels)
Natural gas
Coal
Nuclear
History Projections2008
34%
28%
23%
10%
5%
29%
27%
23%
7%
14%
Share of
world total
Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011
Liquid fuels markets
8Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Oil prices in the Reference case rise steadily; the other cases
represent a wide range of prices
9
world oil price paths
real 2009 dollars per barrel
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011
ProjectionsHistory 2009
High Oil Price case
Low Oil Price case
Reference case
Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011
Unconventional liquids become increasingly important in the
total supply of liquid fuels
10
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
world liquids production
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011
ProjectionsHistory 2008
OPEC conventional
Non-OPEC conventional
Unconventional 12%
48%
40%
41%
5%
55%
Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011
Growth in OPEC production comes mainly from the Middle East
11
OPEC conventional production
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Saudi Arabia Iraq Iran Other Middle East OPEC
Africa South America
2008 2035
Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011
Non-OPEC conventional supply growth comes mainly from
Russia, United States, Brazil, and Kazakhstan
12
Non-OPEC conventional production
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Russia United States Brazil Kazakhstan OECD Europe Mexico Canada
2008 2035
Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011
Oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70 percent of the
increase in unconventional liquid fuels
13
Unconventional production
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Oil sands/bitumen Biofuels Extra-heavy oil Coal-to-liquids Gas-to-liquids Oil Shale
2008 2035
Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011
High and Low Oil Price cases reflect shifts in both demand and
supply schedules relative to the Reference case
14
0
20
40
60
80
OECD Non-OECD Asia Rest of World OPEC conventional
Non-OPEC conventional
Unconventional
Reference case High Price case Low Price case
worldwide liquids consumption and production in 2035
million barrels per day
Source: International Energy Outlook 2011
Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011
Demand Supply
Natural gas markets
15Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011
Non-OECD nations account for 76% of the growth in natural
gas consumption in the IEO2011 Reference case
16
world natural gas consumption
trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011
37
4955
5762
68
3739
56
66
83
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 2000 2008 2015 2025 2035
OECD Non-OECD
Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011
History Projections
The Middle East and non-OECD Asia account for the largest
increases in natural gas production
17
-2
3
4
4
6
7
10
12
15
-5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0
Other OECD
Canada
Australia/New Zealand
Central and South America
United States
Africa
Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia
Non-OECD Asia
Middle East
world natural gas production increment, 2008-2035
trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011
Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011
Initial assessment of shale gas resources in 48 major shale
basins in 32 countries indicates a large potential
18
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011
Estimates of technically recoverable shale gas resources in the
48 shale gas basins that were recently assessed
19
Continent
Technically
Recoverable
(trillion cubic feet)
North America Canada, Mexico 1,069
AfricaMorocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Mauritania,
Western Sahara, South Africa1,042
Asia China, India, Pakistan 1,404
Australia 396
Europe
France, Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, Norway,
Denmark, U.K., Poland, Lithuania, Kaliningrad,
Ukraine, Turkey
624
South AmericaColombia, Venezuela, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil,
Chile, Uruguay, Paraguay1,225
Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011
0
10
20
30
2008 2035 2008 2035 2008 2035
Unconventional gas is an increasingly important component of
supply, not only for the U.S., but also China and Canada
20
natural gas production
trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011
China Canada
Unconventional
(tight gas, shale gas,
and coalbed methane)
Conventional (all other gas)
United States
Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011
Electricity markets
21Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011
Renewables and natural gas are fastest growing, but coal still
fuels the largest share of the world’s electricity in 2035
22
world electricity generation by fuel
trillion kilowatthours
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011
0
10
20
30
40
1990 2000 2008 2015 2025 2035
Coal
Natural gas
Hydropower
Nuclear
Other renewablesLiquids
Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011
History Projections
China accounts for nearly three-quarters of the world increase in
coal-fired generation
23
coal-fired generation
trillion kilowatthours
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011
0
2
4
6
8
1990 2000 2008 2015 2025 2035
United States China Non-OECD Asia (excluding China) Rest of world
Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011
History Projections
Energy-related carbon dioxide
emissions
24Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011
Non-OECD Asia accounts for almost 75% of the world increase
in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions
25
world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions
billion metric tons
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011
Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 2000 2008 2015 2025 2035
OECD Other Non-OECD Non-OECD Asia
History Projections
Coal continues to account for the largest share of carbon dioxide
emissions throughout the projection
26
0
10
20
30
40
50
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel
billion metric tons
Coal
Natural gas
Liquids
2008History Projections
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011
Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011
For more information
27
U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer
Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011
