Ipsos MORI Local...Metropolitan districts and 14 unitary authorities) Source: Ipsos MORI Q Thinking about this local area, how much of a problem do you think each of the following

Ben PageChief Executive, Ipsos MORI

Ipsos MORI LocalPEOPLE, PERCEPTIONS AND PLACE

It’s making the news…

And we are of course, all Localists now….

Who said this? “[We propose]… giving local communities the power to drive real improvements in everything from the way their neighbourhoods are policed to the way that community assets are used. I believe it will help to build the vibrant local democracies on which our society and our public services depend.…”

“Newly empowered councils... through a new 'general power of competence' will be able to do literally whatever they like as long as it's legal - creating solutions to local problems without getting permission from the centre.”

“We need to take control away from central government, where bureaucrats and ministers are in charge, and give it to local government, people and communities”.

http://images.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://www.libdems.org.uk/s3.amazonaws.com_/ld-migrated-assets/assets/0000/9985/Nick_Clegg_head_and_shoulders.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.libdems.org.uk/www.libdems.org.uk/people/nick-clegg.html&usg=__r21jHnmVcR03jlWT-5wMuzyC2Kc=&h=3620&w=2912&sz=3645&hl=en&start=1&tbnid=MFct-6NqGxek0M:&tbnh=150&tbnw=121&prev=/images%3Fq%3DLiberal%2Bdemocrat%2Bleader%26imgsz%3Dhuge%26gbv%3D2%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DG

The Place Survey shows some real success in local areas

80%

75%

77%

82%

77%

70%

75%

69%

80%

71%

66%

73%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

2006 2008Year surveyed

Satis

fact

ion

Average District Mets & Unitaries LB Inner London Outer London

Q Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with your local area as a place to live?

We’re happier with where we live

Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (352 local authorities), BVPI 2006 and 2003 (387 local authorities) Source: Ipsos MORI

Q Thinking about this local area, how much of a problem do you think each of the following are… 7 strand ASB index

…ASB is still going down


20%

38%

23%

36%

21%

19%

42%

23%27%

43%

27%29%

41%

26%28%

45%

30%26%

15%

25%

35%

45%


Prob

lem


2006

Q Thinking about this local area, how much of a problem do you think each of the following are… People using or dealing drugs?

Particularly drugs…

Source: Ipsos MORI

31%

60%

43%

60%

42%

29%

63%

33%

46%

61%

36%

45%

60%

38%

50%

61%

44%

35%

25%

35%

45%

55%

65%


Prob

lem


2006

Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (352 local authorities), BVPI 2006 and 2003 (387 local authorities)

Q Thinking about this local area, how much of a problem do you think each of the following are… Teenagers hanging around the streets?

…and the terror of teenagers declining


45%

57% 57%56%

55%

40%

60%

50%

61%59%

48%

60%

56%

48%

56%61%

63%

49%

35%

45%

55%

65%


Prob

lem


2006

BUT local authorities getting none of the credit…

45%

55%53%

56%55%

46%

52%

42%

50%

52%49%

54%55%

56%57%

51% 51%

46%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%


Satis

fact

ion


Q How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way your local council runs things?

Satisfaction with Council is down

Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (352 local authorities), BVPI 2006 and 2003 (387 local authorities) BVPI 2003 Inner London mean excludes Islington, Newham and Tower Hamlets, BVPI 2003 Outer London mean excludes Croydon Source: Ipsos MORI

2006

38%

41%

37%

37%

40%

36%

All council average

Districts

Mets & Unitaries

London boroughs

Inner London

Outer London

…because people don’t know what’s happening?

% Informed

Q Overall, how well informed do you feel you are kept about local public services?

Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (131 local authorities: 59 district councils, 33 London boroughs, 25 Metropolitan districts and 14 unitary authorities) Source: Ipsos MORI

Q Thinking about this local area, how much of a problem do you think each of the following are… rubbish or litter lying around?

For example, rubbish or litter lying around is less of a problem…


39%

45%42%

41%39%

32%

50%

44%48%

59%

45%

53%56%

44%

52%

61%

54%

47%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%


Prob

lem


2006

Q How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with each of the following services provided or supported by your local authority?… keeping public land clear of litter and refuse

…BUT satisfaction with the council on this has fallen

*2006 question wording: How satisfied or dissatisfied are you that the local authority has kept this land clear of litter and refuse.


57%

60%63%

69%

59%

55% 54%52%

58%

65%

56%

63%67%

51%

63%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Satis

fact

ion


2006

Place Survey covers more than just councils…

47%

45%

49%

49%

50%

50%

Average

In Districts

In Mets & Unitaries

In London boroughs

Inner London

Outer London

Satisfaction with local police forces similar to that of councils

% Satisfied

Q Please indicate how satisfied or dissatisfied you are with each of the following public services in your local area?…Your local police force


26%

27%

26%

29%

31%

29%

Average

In Districts

In Mets & Unitaries

In London boroughs

Inner London

Outer London

Local agencies doing badly on the “new single confidence” measure

% Agree

Q And how much would you agree or disagree that the police and other local public services are successfully dealing with these issues [anti-social behaviour and crime] in your local area?


77%

80%

75%

69%

67%

70%

Average

In Districts

In Mets & Unitaries

In London boroughs

Inner London

Outer London

GPs better rated, but London stands out

% Satisfied

Q Please indicate how satisfied or dissatisfied you are with each of the following public services in your local area?…Your GP


54%

56%

53%

47%

40%

51%

Average

In Districts

In Mets & Unitaries

In London boroughs

Inner London

Outer London

… even dentists better rated than councils

% Satisfied

Q Please indicate how satisfied or dissatisfied you are with each of the following public services in your local area?…Your local dentist


Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics?

Two key points:

- understand what is driving these perceptions – both what is in your control and what is not

- look more carefully at local neighbourhoods within authorities

The Perils of Perception – much is beyond your control….

For example overall quality of life can nearly all be explained by just five background factors…

R2 = 54%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50IMD

Satis

fact

ion

with

loca

l are

a

Base: All valid responses, 323 local authorities, Place Survey 2008/09 Source: Ipsos MORI

Very strong relationship with deprivation…

NewhamBarking and Dagenham

Rushmoor

Kingston upon Hull

Barrow in Furness

WestminsterHart

South Hams

ThurrockLiverpool

Hackney

Slough

Ribble Valley

RR2 = 49%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

40% 50% 60% 70%No dependent children

Satis

fact

ion


…but even very simple measures like proportion of dependent children

Barking and Dagenham

Hackney

Richmond upon Thames

Boston

City of London

South Holland

Ashfield

Sandwell

Milton Keynes

Newham

In fact we can explain 82% of variation in quality of life knowing only…

Degree level or higher qualificationsHouseholds living in homes with 0.5 people or fewer per roomIMDProportion under 21Geographic region – NE happy, London unhappy

R

R2 = 77%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%Predicted satisfaction

Act

ual s

atis

fact

ion


We can accurately predict quality of life knowing only these factors

Thurrock

Kingston upon Hull

Knowsley Forest Heath

Newham

Barking & Dagenham

Ribble Valley South Hams

South Cambs

The Ipsos MORI Area Challenge Index: Who’s most universally challenged?

Area Challenge index

Looking across all measures, what are the background factors that are largely beyond the control of local services that are most related to perceptions?Identified seven domains which when combined generate a score form 1 to 100 for each local authority:

The Indices of Multiple DeprivationEthnic diversity (the level of ethnic fractionalisation)Young peoplePopulation churnPhysical living conditionsUrbanityRegion


The five most and least challenged metropolitan and unitary authorities

72

72

71

70

72 29

28

20

20

14

Manchester

Blackburn with Darwen

Birmingham

Leicester

Luton

Most challenged Least challenged

Isle of Wight

North Lincolnshire

East Riding of YorkshireHerefordshire County

Rutland


The five most and least challenged London boroughs

88

86

81

78

100 50

48

47

46

38

Newham

Hackney

Tower Hamlets

Barking and Dagenham

Haringey

Most challenged Least challenged

Kensington and Chelsea

Richmond

Bromley

Havering

City of London


The five most and least challenged districts

60

59

56

56

61 7

6

6

1

1

Oxford

Burnley

Hastings

Preston

Pendle

Most challenged Least challenged*

Castle Morpeth

South Shropshire

Tynedale

Alnwick

Teesdale

*All five of the least challenged districts are now part of new unitary authorities

But there are things you can do…

Quality of life heavily impacted by - sense of belonging - ASB, respect and liveability - services provided by key agencies like the council and police

Local public services really matter to a sense of place

- 6%

Positive drivers Negative drivers

- 5%

15%

- 4%

14%

11%

8%

7%

5%

5%

5%

5%

- 6%

- 4%

Belong to immediate neighbourhood

Satisfaction with the way the local council runs things

Safe to go out during the day

Satisfied with parks and open spaces

People not treating each other with respect

People using or dealing drugs

Keeping public land clear of litter and refuse

Local public services working to make the area cleaner and greener

Satisfied with local police force

People from different backgrounds get on well together

Safe to go out after dark Noisy neighbours or loud parties

Vandalism, graffiti and other deliberate damage to property

Rubbish and litter lying around

Satisfied with local area

38.7% of variation explained by model Source: Ipsos MORI

R

R2 = 83%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%ASB

Satis

fact

ion


Importance of ASB can’t be overstated…

Tower Hamlets

HackneyRossendale

HyndburnThurrock

Broadland

NewhamBarking & Dagenham

Westminster

South Hams

For councils, a few key visible services matter most - and informing and listening

Drivers of satisfaction: The way the Council run things

11%

10%

6%

5%

- 4%

10%

10%

9%

8%

6%

6%

5%

5%

5%

Overall satisfaction with local area

Overall, well informed about local public services

Treated with respect by local public services

Satisfied with your local police force

Owner occupied tenure

Satisfied with refuse collection


Residents can influence decisions

Well informed about how your council tax is spent

Local public services treat all types of people fairly

Local public services act on the concerns of local residents

Successfully deal with issues

Local public services working to make the area cleaner and greener

Satisfied with local bus service

Satisfied with

council



R

R2 = 52%

25%

35%

45%

55%

65%

75%

25% 35% 45% 55% 65%Informed

Satis

fact

ion

Broadland

Base: All valid responses, 131 local authorities, Place Survey 2008 Source: Ipsos MORI

No councils that communicate well are poorly rated overall

City of LondonWandsworth

Kensington & ChelseaWestminster

Rochdale

Epping Forest

Hammersmith & Fulham

Gedling

North Norfolk

Rother

R

R2 = 8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

£600£700

£800£900

£1,000£1,100

£1,200£1,300

£1,400£1,500

£1,600£1,700

Average council tax per dwelling

Satis

fact

ion

with

cou

ncil

Source: Ipsos MORI

Council tax vs. satisfaction with council

Wandsworth City of London Kensington & Chelsea

Westminster Richmond upon Thames

Oldham

Rushcliffe

On crime measures, it is a lot about respect – and parenting

Drivers of ASB: understanding where to focus your efforts

12%- 27%

11%

10%

9%

7%

6%

- 6%

- 6%

- 5%

Safe to go out after dark

People not treating each other with respect

Social/council renter

Satisfied with local transport information

Most need improving – clean streets


Safe to go out during the day

Parents take enough responsibility for the behaviour of children

Anti-social problems

Ethnicity - white

Successfully deal with issues



But can dig deeper into Place – look at how views vary at more local levels within authorities

Using new Ipsos MORI mapping tool:

- key benefit is that doesn’t rely on official geography - can see real patterns of perceptions in contour maps - identify hotspots of concern

So for example, cross-boundary areas of dissatisfaction with area are not missed

…or dissatisfaction with council

Can compare responses on different questions – to help target local actions

ChaseChaseChaseChase

Satisfaction with council Feelings of influence

Can show the importance of individual services?

Satisfaction with GPsWhether public services treat you with respect

Who’s outperforming the “Area Challenge Index”?

We will soon produce full Frontiers tables for all English authorities – initial analysis of c150 authorities suggests that following are “outperformers”:

Satisfaction with Council – Wandsworth: actual satisfaction 75%, model predicts 60%

Satisfaction with area – lots in the North East eg Sunderland, Gateshead and Middlesbrough

Levels of cohesion – Manchester:actual cohesion measure 74%, model predicts 65%

Conclusions

Real challenges for local government in getting recognition for improvements

UK public services are awash with data–big issue is how we use it to improve quality

of life

–especially as money runs out

Over to you!

Thank you [email protected]

Documents

Ipsos MORI Local...Metropolitan districts and 14 unitary authorities) Source: Ipsos MORI Q Thinking about this local area, how much of a problem do you think each of the following