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Voting Intentions
3Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those
“certain to vote”
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Conservative lead = +1
All giving a voting intention: 81%
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
35%
34%
8%
11%
7%5%
Base:1,010 British adults 18+, 11th -13th January 2015, all certain to vote = 617
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
UKIP
Other
All certain to vote: 61%
Conservative lead = -1
33%
34%
8%
11%
8%6%
Greens
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
Apr-0
4
Ju
l-04
Oct-0
4
Ja
n-0
5
Apr-0
5
Ju
l-05
Oct-0
5
Ja
n-0
6
Apr-0
6
Ju
l-06
Oct-0
6
Ja
n-0
7
Apr-0
7
Ju
l-07
Oct-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Apr-0
8
Ju
l-08
Oct-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Apr-0
9
Ju
l-09
Oct-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Apr-1
0
Ju
l-10
Oct-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
Apr-1
1
Ju
l-11
Oct-1
1
Ja
n-1
2
Apr-1
2
Ju
l-12
Oct-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Apr-1
3
Ju
l-13
Oct-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Apr-1
4
Ju
l-14
Oct-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
34%
8%
33%
11%
2005 General Election
Cameron elected
(Dec 05)
Brown as PM (Jun 07)
2010 General Election
Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through January 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Voting Intentions April ‘04 – January ‘15
(all certain to vote)
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
8%
5
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
How certain are Labour and Conservative supporters in their
intention to vote? March ‘08 to January ‘15
% of supporters “Absolutely certain to vote”
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
2010 General Election
Labour Conservative
64%70%
Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through January 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter
Satisfaction with the Coalition
and Party Leaders
7
52
64
61
48
56
41
25
26
35
33
Net Satisfaction
Swing from December
2014
-11 +5
-39 -0.5
-35 +1.5
-13 +3.5
-23 +4
Base:1,010 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th January 2015. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and %
“dissatisfied”
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister
/Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP?
David Cameron
The Government
Nick Clegg
Ed Miliband
% Satisfied% Dissatisfied
Nigel Farage
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Ap
r-08
Ju
l-08
Oct-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ap
r-09
Ju
l-09
Oct-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ap
r-10
Ju
l-10
Oct-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
Ap
r-11
Ju
l-11
Oct-1
1
Ja
n-1
2
Ap
r-12
Ju
l-12
Oct-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Ap
r-13
Ju
l-13
Oct-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Ap
r-14
Ju
l-14
Oct-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
25%
% s
ati
sfi
ed
Cameron
Clegg
General Election
41%
Miliband 26%Brown
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?
Satisfaction with Party leaders March ‘08 – January ‘14
Farage
35%
9
Net
sati
sfa
cti
on
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
THATCHER
BLAIRMAJOR
BROWN
CAMERON
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
Note: Data collected prior to January 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from January 2008 was via telephone
10
41%
52%
6%
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
David Cameron (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative
Party/ as Prime Minister?
Note: Data collected prior to January 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from January 2008 was via telephone
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
January 2015
SatisfiedDon’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -11
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th January 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
January 2007 – January 2015
11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Base: 291 Conservative supporters 18+, 11th -13th January 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
David Cameron
(satisfaction among Tory supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative
Party/ as Prime Minister?
81%
15%
4%Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = +66 Note: Data collected prior to January 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from January 2008 was via telephone
January 2007 – January 2015January 2015
12
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
HAGUE (1997-2001)DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders
(1994 – 2015)
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
CAMERON (2005-2010)
BLAIR (1994-1997)
MILIBAND (2010-2015)
HOWARD
(2003-2005)
Note: Data collected prior to January 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from January 2008 was via telephone
Net
sati
sfa
cti
on
13
26%
61%
13%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Ed Miliband (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
January 2011 – January 2015January 2015
SatisfiedDon’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -35
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th January 2015
14
48%
45%
8%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Base: 256 Labour supporters 18+, 11th – 13th January 2015
Ed Miliband
(satisfaction among Labour supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
January 2015
Net = +3
SatisfiedDon’t know
Dissatisfied
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
January 2011 – January 2015
15
25%
64%
10%
Nick Clegg (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/
as Deputy Prime Minister?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Note: Data collected prior to January 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from January 2008 was via telephone
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
January 2009 – January 2015January 2015
SatisfiedDon’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -39
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th January 2015
16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Base: 68 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 11th – 13th January 2015. N.B. small base size indicative only
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
January 2015
50%
42%
9%Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = +8
Nick Clegg
(satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/
as Deputy Prime Minister?
January 2009 – January 2015
Note: Data collected prior to January 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from January 2008 was via telephone
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
17
35%
48%
16%
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK
Independence Party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
All
SatisfiedDon’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
March 2013 – January 2015
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th January 2015
18
89%
7% 3%
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK
Independence Party?
Nigel Farage
(satisfaction among UKIP supporters)
Base: 83 UKIP supporters,11th -13th January 2015. N.B. small base size indicative only
UKIP supporters
Satisfied
Don’t knowDissatisfied
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
March 2013 – January 2015
Net = +82
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
The economy
20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Ja
n-0
5A
pr-
05
Ju
l-0
5O
ct-
05
Ja
n-0
6A
pr-
06
Ju
l-0
6O
ct-
06
Ja
n-0
7A
pr-
07
Ju
l-0
7O
ct-
07
Ja
n-0
8A
pr-
08
Ju
l-0
8O
ct-
08
Ja
n-0
9A
pr-
09
Ju
l-0
9O
ct-
09
Ja
n-1
0A
pr-
10
Ju
l-1
0O
ct-
10
Ja
n-1
1A
pr-
11
Ju
l-1
1O
ct-
11
Ja
n-1
2A
pr-
12
Ju
l-1
2O
ct-
12
Ja
n-1
3A
pr-
13
Ju
l-1
3O
ct-
13
Ja
n-1
4A
pr-
14
Ju
l-1
4O
ct-
14
Ja
n-1
5
Economic Optimism Index
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse
over the next 12 months?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Improve
Stay the same
Get worse Improve
Don’t know
Get worse
Stay the same
December 2014
EOI = +12
38%
30%
26%
6%
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 11th -13th January 2015
21
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Ap
r-9
7Ju
l-9
7O
ct-
97
Ja
n-9
8A
pr-
98
Ju
l-9
8O
ct-
98
Ja
n-9
9A
pr-
99
Ju
l-9
9O
ct-
99
Ja
n-0
0A
pr-
00
Ju
l-0
0O
ct-
00
Ja
n-0
1A
pr-
01
Ju
l-0
1O
ct-
01
Ja
n-0
2A
pr-
02
Ju
l-0
2O
ct-
02
Ja
n-0
3A
pr-
03
Ju
l-0
3O
ct-
03
Ja
n-0
4A
pr-
04
Ju
l-0
4O
ct-
04
Ja
n-0
5A
pr-
05
Ju
l-0
5O
ct-
05
Ja
n-0
6A
pr-
06
Ju
l-0
6O
ct-
06
Ja
n-0
7A
pr-
07
Ju
l-0
7O
ct-
07
Ja
n-0
8A
pr-
08
Ju
l-0
8O
ct-
08
Ja
n-0
9A
pr-
09
Ju
l-0
9O
ct-
09
Ja
n-1
0A
pr-
10
Ju
l-1
0O
ct-
10
Ja
n-1
1A
pr-
11
Ju
l-1
1O
ct-
11
Ja
n-1
2A
pr-
12
Ju
l-1
2O
ct-
12
Ja
n-1
3A
pr-
13
Ju
l-1
3O
ct-
13
Ja
n-1
4A
pr-
14
Ju
l-1
4O
ct-
14
Ja
n-1
5
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse
over the next 12 months?
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
+28
-46
-56
-48
+23
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
Ind
ex
(g
et
be
tte
r m
inu
s g
et
wo
rse)
-64
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
+12
+35
2015 General Election
23Have the voters decided yet?
Have you definitely decided to vote for the Conservative Party/ Labour Party/ Liberal Democrats/ Greens/
UKIP/ SNP/Plaid Cymru or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,010 British adults 18+, 11th -13th January 2015
August 2014 January 2015
43%
Definitely
decided
56%
May change
mind
47%
Definitely
decided
51%
May change
mind
2% don’t know 2% don’t know
24Which issues will be very important when voters
cast their ballots? Top four issues
Looking ahead to the next General Election, which if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in
helping you decide which party to vote for?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,010 British adults 18+, 11th -13th January 2015
23%
30%
31%
29%
20%
27%
33%
46%
Education/schools
Asylum and immigration
Managing the economy/economic situation
Healthcare/NHS/hospitals
September 2014January 2015
25Which issues will be very important when voters
cast their ballots?
Looking ahead to the next General Election, which if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in
helping you decide which party to vote for?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,010 British adults 18+, 11th -13th January 2015
Only showing answers above 5%; see computer tables for full results
5%
5%
5%
8%
8%
9%
9%
20%
27%
33%
46%
Pensions
Foreign policy/foreign affairs
Housing
Benefits
Taxation
Europe/EU
Unemployment
Education/schools
Asylum and immigration
Managing the economy/economic situation
Healthcare/NHS/hospitals
Sept ‘14
29%
31%
30%
23%
10%
11%
8%
13%
5%
12%
6%