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0 18 August 2017
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Nedbank Limited Reg No 1951/000009/06. Authorised financial services and registered credit provider (NCRCP16).
Isaac is an Economist in the Group
Economic Unit, Nedbank Group. He was
previously with Standard Bank Ltd’s Group
Economics Division – Africa Desk, and
Investment Solutions Ltd’s Market and
Economic research unit.
He holds degrees in Economics from the
University of North West and the University
of South Africa and is studying a Masters in
Development Finance with the University of
Cape Town’s Graduate Scholl of Business.
His research interests include sovereign risk
analysis and the development of capital
markets in developing economies. He is a
regular commentator in the print and
electronic media
Isaac Matshego Economist – Nedbank Ltd
1 18 August 2017
1
Nedbank Limited Reg No 1951/000009/06. Authorised financial services and registered credit provider (NCRCP16).
August 2017
ITC-SA
Cape Town Macroeconomic Overview & Outlook
2 18 August 2017
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The outlook for the South African economy is more uncertain
SA Macro – growth remains lacklustre, political and policy uncertainty are elevated
□ Political events have dampened the economic outlook
□ The contentious revisions to the Mining Charter □ Could a Land Expropriation Bill be next?
□ Business confidence is likely to remain low as political uncertainty is high
□ Domestic political developments will remain in focus as the ANC heads for its conference
in December 2017 □ The “No-Confidence” vote laid bare the extent of divisions with the ANC
□ Foreign investors have continued to accumulate local assets despite the credit rating downgrades, with the “search for yield” and strong emerging market sentiment boosting demand for SA assets
3 18 August 2017
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“Junk” status: how long till we restore investment-grade status?
Source: Moody’s, S&P Global Ratings, Fitch Ratings
Date Rating (Outlook) Date Rating
Fitch 2017/04/07 BB+ (Stable) 2017/04/07 BB+
S&P 2017/04/03 BB+ (Negative) 2017/04/03 BBB-
Moody's 2017/06/09 Baa3 (Negative) 2017/06/09 Baa3
Long term Ratings
Foreign Currency Local Currency
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Industries Q-o-q % change (saar) Size
2015 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 2016 Q1'17 % of total
Agriculture -6.1 -8.7 -7.8 -0.2 -0.1 -7.8 22.2 2.4
Mining 3.9 -21.8 14.6 4.2 -11.5 -4.7 12.8 7.9
Manufacturing -0.2 0.6 7.6 -3.3 -3.1 0.7 -3.7 13.4
Power & water -1.5 -5.4 -3.2 -2.5 2.4 -3.5 -4.8 3.7
Construction 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.7 -1.3 4.0
Domestic trade 1.4 1.9 1.6 -2.0 2.1 1.2 -5.9 15.2
Transport & comm 1.1 -0.3 2.2 1.7 2.6 0.4 -1.6 10.1
Finance 2.8 1.7 2.4 1.3 1.6 1.9 -1.2 20.2
General government 0.8 1.4 1.3 2.0 0.9 1.4 -0.6 17.3
Personal services 1.1 1.3 1.8 1.4 1.0 1.2 -0.1 5.8
Value added 1.3 -1.3 3.2 0.4 -0.2 0.4 -0.7 100.0
GDP 1.3 -1.5 3.1 0.4 -0.3 0.3 -0.7
Source: Statistics South Africa and calculations by Nedbank Group Economic Unit
Economic recession as output declines in nine of 10 sectors
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The longest, but moderate, downturn since the early-1990s
Source: South African Reserve Bank
6 18 August 2017
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The expansion phases: Another consumer-led rebound likely?
Source: South African Reserve Bank
7 18 August 2017
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Downbeat confidence hurts business investment
Source: Bureau for Economic Research, South African Reserve Bank
8 18 August 2017
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Consumer confidence also at 15-year lows
Source: Bureau for Economic Research, SA Reserve Bank
9 18 August 2017
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Unemployment rate has reached a 14-year high
Source: Statistics South Africa
10 18 August 2017
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Household income pressured by economic weakness & inflation
Source: South African Reserve Bank
11 18 August 2017
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Vehicle sales dragged lower by commercial vehicles
Source: National Association of Automobile Manufacturers
12 18 August 2017
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A fragile home construction sector
Source: South African Reserve Bank
13 18 August 2017
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Credit demand growth subdued by lacklustre activity
Source: South African Reserve Bank
14 18 August 2017
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Corporate credit demand has been firmer
Source: South African Reserve Bank
15 18 August 2017
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Steady but slow interest rate reduction phase likely
Source: South African Reserve Bank, Nedbank forecasts
16 18 August 2017
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Rand supported by positive investor sentiment
Source: Reuters
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2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Growth (real, % change)
GDP 1.5 1.3 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.9
PCE 0.7 1.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.8
GFCF 1.7 2.3 -3.9 -0.6 0.9 2.3
Exports 3.2 3.9 -0.1 2.3 3.9 4.5
Imports -0.5 5.4 -3.7 2.6 4.2 5.0
Balance of payments (Rbn)
Current account as a % of gdp -5.3 -4.4 -3.3 -3.0 -3.2 -3.2
Gold price (average per ounce)
$ 1 266.4 1 161.7 1 249.2 1 254.6 1 248.3 1 247.7
Rand 13754 14837 18380 16885 17584 17908
Exchange rates, average
$-Rand 10.86 12.77 14.71 13.46 14.09 14.35
Euro-Rand 14.34 14.10 16.22 15.14 15.95 15.90
GBP-Rand 17.88 19.53 19.87 17.31 18.37 18.71
Interest rates (end of period)
Prime 9.25 9.75 10.50 10.00 9.50 10.00
Inflation (average)CPI 6.1 4.6 6.4 5.3 5.2 5.8
Economic outlook complicated by political and policy uncertainty
Sources: Various, Nedbank forecasts
18 18 August 2017
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Nedbank Limited Reg No 1951/000009/06. Authorised financial services and registered credit provider (NCRCP16).
Thank you.