Economic impact Assessment of the F2F

strategy

Justus Wesseler, Wageningen University

Farm2Fork

▪ EU “Green Deal”

▪ SDGs

▪ Climate Change

▪ Sustainability

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Spaceship Earth: The Carbon Cycle

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Source: https://www.nasa.gov/centers/langley/news/researchernews/rn_carboncycle.html

Five major developments: “Clean Meat”

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▪ Animal Welfare

▪ Environmental Friendly (?)

▪ Disruptive, but when?

Five major developments: Meat Substitutes

▪ Taste

▪ Environment

▪ Animal Welfare

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Five major developments: Insects

▪ Recycling of waste

▪ Low energy

▪ Alternative protein source

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Source: Akhtar and Isman (2018).

Five major developments: Aquaculture

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▪ Salt

▪ Coastal Protection

▪ Food Safety

Five major developments: Vertical Farming

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▪ LED - Lightning

▪ Less pollution

New Opportunities for Agriculture?

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Advances in biological sciences

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Current and expected integration across biotechnology application (size of arrows

indicate quantities)

Regulatory Implications: Model

▪ Four phases: R&D, Approval, Marketing, Ex-post Liability

▪ Effect of Regulation on Immediate Investment

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R & D (R) Approval (A) Marketing (B) Ex-post Liability ()

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Purnhagen and Wesseler (2019).

Policy Environment Important !

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Hurd

le R

ate

Expected Length of R&D in Years

Ratio of Benefits over Investment Costs (Hurdle Rate) Justifying Immediate

Investment in Gene Editing Technologies

Hurdle Rate Hurdle Rate Zero Approval Costs

▪ Example: NPBTs

▪ CJEU decision

Purnhagen and Wesseler (2019).

Challenges

▪ Timing: research & innovation

▪ Monitoring: linking biomass and economic flows

▪ Business models/Supply Chains

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Summary

▪ F2F not new, but more important -> mind set!

▪ Economic factors important for impact -> opportunity costs!

▪ Agriculture: changes and new opportunities -> new supply chains

▪ Policy: R&D, regulation

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Many thanks for

your attention!

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Resources

▪ European Commission (2020) Farm to Fork Strategy. European Union: https://ec.europa.eu/food/sites/food/files/safety/docs/f2f_action-plan_2020_strategy-info_en.pdf

▪ Wesseler, Justus (2015) Agriculture in the Bioeconomy -Economics and Policies. The Netherlands: Wageningen University.

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