Juvenile Arrest Rates 1980-2009 National Arrest Estimates Calculated with Data from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program October 25, 2010

Source: John Jay College calculations of national arrest estimates using data from Crime in the United States, 1980 through 2009. Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation (see http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm).

Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.www.jeffreybutts.net

Juvenile Arrest Rates 1980-2009

National Arrest Estimates Calculated with Data from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program

October 25, 2010

Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.John Jay College of Criminal Justice

City University of New York



The FBI calculates just one national estimate for each major offense. It does not calculate national estimates for different age groups. To present national arrest estimates for various groups and to calculate per capita arrest rates for those groups, this presentation relies on the FBI’s estimate of total arrests for each major offense. It uses the data reported by UCR-participating jurisdictions to determine the proportion of arrests for each offense that involved individuals of various ages. That proportion is then applied to the FBI’s national estimate for each offense. Arrest rates are determined by dividing each national arrest estimate over the appropriate population data from the U.S. Bureau of the Census.These estimation procedures were first developed by Dr. Howard Snyder, now with the Bureau of Justice Statistics at the U.S. Department of Justice.

Data Source and MethodsThe national arrest estimates presented here (as well as the per capita rates based upon those estimates) were calculated by the Justice Research and Evaluation Center at John Jay College of Criminal Justice using data released in 2010 by the Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR) of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). The FBI collects annual information on arrests made by law enforcement agencies throughout the United States. Data are collected from jurisdictions containing a majority of the U.S. population, typically between 70 and 80 percent of residents nationwide. The primary publication of UCR data, Crime in the United States, is based upon data from those police agencies able to participate fully in the UCR program each year. Full participation requires that agencies submit their data to the FBI on time and their data must cover all arrests for a minimum number of months during the year. For 2009, the jurisdictions that participated fully in the UCR program represented 78 percent of the national population. Nearly all of the arrest statistics generated by the FBI are based on this sample.



Juvenile Arrests for Key Offenses

Violent Index Offenses

• Murder• Robbery• Aggravated Assault• Forcible Rape

Property Index Offenses

• Burglary• Larceny-Theft• Motor Vehicle Theft• Arson

Other Offenses• Weapon Offenses• Drug Law Violations

This presentation concentrates on the major crime categories, including the 8 offenses in the Violent and Property Crime Indices, and 2 other key offenses, weapons and drugs.



1995 2004 2006 2009 Total Arrests 2,745,000 2,202,000 2,219,600 1,923,500Violent Index 147,700 91,100 100,700 86,300

Murder 3,300 1,100 1,300 1,200 Robbery 55,500 25,300 35,000 31,800

Aggravated Assault 83,500 60,400 60,800 50,200 Forcible Rape 5,500 4,200 3,600 3,100

Property Index 737,400 452,300 404,700 421,800 Burglary 135,800 81,600 83,900 75,600

Larceny-Theft 510,600 323,500 278,100 320,700 Motor Vehicle Theft 80,500 39,300 34,600 20,000

Arson 10,500 7,800 8,100 5,400 Weapons Offenses 56,300 40,500 47,200 34,100

Drug Offenses 189,800 193,900 196,700 171,600

High Point Low Point

Juvenile Arrests NationwideHistoric Decline

Note: Detail may not add to totals due to rounding.

Rebound Recovery

The national estimate for total number of juvenile arrests (i.e., all arrests involving youth under age 18 nationwide) fell below 2 million in 2009; the first time this has happened since 1984.




Murder 3,300 1,100 1,300 1,200 Robbery 55,500 25,300 35,000 31,800





Drug Offenses 189,800 193,900 196,700 171,600




Rebound Recovery

The national estimate for the number of juvenile arrests in the Violent Crime Index (i.e., murder, robbery, forcible rape, and aggravated assault) fell in 2009 to the lowest level since 1987.




Murder 3,300 1,100 1,300 1,200 Robbery 55,500 25,300 35,000 31,800





Drug Offenses 189,800 193,900 196,700 171,600




Rebound Recovery

The estimated number of juvenile murder arrests nationwide in 2009 nearly matched the 30-year low seen in 2004.





The 2004-2006 growth in violent crime arrest rates now appears to have been a modest fluctuation in a relatively stable pattern.





Viewed over the long term, the rate of juvenile arrests for murder between 2000 and 2009 should be described as relatively stable .





Juvenile arrest rates for robbery are worrisome compared with the low point of 2004, but the rate fell between 2008 and 2009.





Aggravated assault arrests among juveniles flattened out between 2004 and 2006, then continued to decline through 2009.





Juvenile arrest rates for forcible rape have been falling since 1991.





Juvenile arrest rates for the four offenses included in the Property Crime Index increased after 2006, but dropped from 2008 to 2009.





Burglary arrest rates among juveniles may have started to stabilize after nearly three decades of decline.





Juvenile arrest rates for larceny-theft began to grow after 2006, but were relatively unchanged between 2008 and 2009.





Motor vehicle theft arrests among juveniles continued the stunning rate of decline that started in the late 1980s.





Arson arrests among juveniles fell sharply from 2006 to 2009.





After disturbing increases between 2002 and 2006, juvenile arrests for weapon offenses returned to their 2002 level.





Juvenile drug arrests generally dropped after 1997, but arrest rates in the 2000s were substantially higher than those of the 1980s.



Arrests by Age

Juveniles

Adults

Under Age 15 (Ages 10-14)

Ages 15-17

Ages 18-24

Age 25 and Older

Arrests of juveniles are often compared with those of adults, but it is informative to break these age groups into four categories.







Viewed in this way, juveniles under age 18 appear to be responsible for much of the 1985-1995 increases in violent crime.



When arrests are divided into four age groups, it is easier to see what really happened during the rise and fall of violent crime.









The changing pattern of violent crime arrests involved juveniles under age 18 and young adults ages 18 to 24.















As was apparent in the changing rate of arrests, robbery shows a different pattern, one which deserves more attention.







The changes in robbery arrest rates are more pronounced among 15-17 year-olds than among 18-24 year-olds.



Summary of National Trends• Juvenile arrest rates are trending downward, according to

the most recent national data.

• After the historic decline in violent crime from 1995 through 2004, arrest rates in some offenses grew slightly for one or two years.

• Juvenile arrest rates then generally began to fall again after 2006.

• When all four offenses in the Violent Crime Index are considered together, arrest rates in 2009 were at their lowest point since 1980.

• The small increase in juvenile murder arrests after 2004 appears to have stopped and murder arrests now appear to be stabilizing.

• The juvenile arrest rate for robbery grew sharply from 2004 to 2006, but it too may have begun to stabilize, although at a level still higher than the historic lows reached during the early 2000s.

• The rate of juvenile arrests for aggravated assault continued its 15-year decline, reaching a level not been seen since the mid 1980s.

• The juvenile arrest rate for weapon offenses also fell between 2006 and 2009, reaching the previous low point of 2002.



Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D.Executive DirectorResearch and Evaluation CenterJohn Jay College of Criminal JusticeCity University of New York555 West 57th StreetNew York, NY 10019(212) [email protected]

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Juvenile Arrest Rates 1980-2009 National Arrest Estimates Calculated with Data from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program October 25, 2010