KOREA MARITIME INSTITUTEKOREA MARITIME INSTITUTE

Study on Container Throughput Forecasting for Shipping and Port Development Strategies

in the APEC Region

Study on Container Throughput Forecasting for Shipping and Port Development Strategies

in the APEC Region

• CHANGES IN MARITIME ENVIRONMENT

• NEEDS FOR THE STRTEGIES

• OBJECTIVES

• METHODOLOGY

• SCHEDULE AND BUDGET

• CHANGES IN MARITIME ENVIRONMENT

• NEEDS FOR THE STRTEGIES

• OBJECTIVES

• METHODOLOGY

• SCHEDULE AND BUDGET

CONTENTSCONTENTS

Korea Maritime InstituteKorea Maritime Institute

GLOBALIZATIONGLOBALIZATION GLOBALIZATIONGLOBALIZATION

TRADE VOLUME INCREASETRADE VOLUME INCREASETRADE VOLUME INCREASETRADE VOLUME INCREASE

Changes in Global EconomyChanges in Global Economy Changes in Global EconomyChanges in Global Economy

WTO REGIME (ECONOMIC LIBERALISM)WTO REGIME (ECONOMIC LIBERALISM) WTO REGIME (ECONOMIC LIBERALISM)WTO REGIME (ECONOMIC LIBERALISM)

ECONOMIC BLOC (FTA)ECONOMIC BLOC (FTA) ECONOMIC BLOC (FTA)ECONOMIC BLOC (FTA)

Korea Maritime InstituteKorea Maritime Institute

CONTAINER PORT THROUGHPUTCONTAINER PORT THROUGHPUT CONTAINER PORT THROUGHPUTCONTAINER PORT THROUGHPUT

Korea Maritime InstituteKorea Maritime Institute

0

50

100

150

200

250(Mil. TEU)

'81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00

Scource: Containerization Int'l Yearbook

CHANGES IN CONTAINER SHIPPING ENVIRONMENTCHANGES IN CONTAINER SHIPPING ENVIRONMENT CHANGES IN CONTAINER SHIPPING ENVIRONMENTCHANGES IN CONTAINER SHIPPING ENVIRONMENT

CHANGE CLIENT DEMANDS

ALLIANCE, M&A

INCREASING CONCENTRATION

EMERGENCE OF BIG SHIP

CHANGE CLIENT DEMANDS

ALLIANCE, M&A

INCREASING CONCENTRATION

EMERGENCE OF BIG SHIP

Korea Maritime InstituteKorea Maritime Institute

CHANGES IN CONTAINER PORTCHANGES IN CONTAINER PORT CHANGES IN CONTAINER PORTCHANGES IN CONTAINER PORT

CARRIER DIRVEN PORT DEVELOPMENT

PRIVATIZATION

MEGA HUB PORT

INTERNATIONAL PORT OPERATOR

ENVRONMENTAL PRESSURE

CARRIER DIRVEN PORT DEVELOPMENT

PRIVATIZATION

MEGA HUB PORT

INTERNATIONAL PORT OPERATOR

ENVRONMENTAL PRESSURE

Korea Maritime InstituteKorea Maritime Institute

ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF APEC REGIONECONOMIC INDICATORS OF APEC REGION ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF APEC REGIONECONOMIC INDICATORS OF APEC REGION

POPULATION: 2.5 billion (42.2% OF WORLD)

GDP: US$ 18 trillion (in 2000)

TRADE: 46.76% OF GLOBAL TRADE (in 2000)

TOP 5 WORLD CONTAINER PORTS (IN 2001)

: HK, SINGAPORE, BUSAN, KAOHSIUNG, SHANGHAI

CONT. PORT THRUPUT: 139 m TEU (in 2000)

: 61.5% of WORLD TOTAL

POPULATION: 2.5 billion (42.2% OF WORLD)

GDP: US$ 18 trillion (in 2000)

TRADE: 46.76% OF GLOBAL TRADE (in 2000)

TOP 5 WORLD CONTAINER PORTS (IN 2001)

: HK, SINGAPORE, BUSAN, KAOHSIUNG, SHANGHAI

CONT. PORT THRUPUT: 139 m TEU (in 2000)

: 61.5% of WORLD TOTAL

Korea Maritime InstituteKorea Maritime Institute

NEED FOR STRATEGIES FOR PORT DEVELOPMENT NEED FOR STRATEGIES FOR PORT DEVELOPMENT AND SHIPPING NETWORKAND SHIPPING NETWORK

NEED FOR STRATEGIES FOR PORT DEVELOPMENT NEED FOR STRATEGIES FOR PORT DEVELOPMENT AND SHIPPING NETWORKAND SHIPPING NETWORK

PORT DEVELOPMENT

: HUGE AND LONG-TERM INVESTMENT

CARGO FORECATING

- DEVELOPING COUNTIRES: NO FORECATING

- DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: OVER FORECATING

SHIPPING REQUIREMENT IN THE REGION

PORT DEVELOPMENT

: HUGE AND LONG-TERM INVESTMENT

CARGO FORECATING

- DEVELOPING COUNTIRES: NO FORECATING

- DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: OVER FORECATING

SHIPPING REQUIREMENT IN THE REGION

Korea Maritime InstituteKorea Maritime Institute

OBJECTIVES OF STUDYOBJECTIVES OF STUDY OBJECTIVES OF STUDYOBJECTIVES OF STUDY

PROVIDING MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM PROSPECTS FOR SHIPPING AND PORT DEVELOPMENT

FORMULATING POLICY GUIDELINES FOR REGIONAL MARITIME STRATEGY PLANNING

ACCESSING THE IMPACT OF THE CHANGES IN MARITITME ENVIRONMENT

PROVIDING MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM PROSPECTS FOR SHIPPING AND PORT DEVELOPMENT

FORMULATING POLICY GUIDELINES FOR REGIONAL MARITIME STRATEGY PLANNING

ACCESSING THE IMPACT OF THE CHANGES IN MARITITME ENVIRONMENT

Korea Maritime InstituteKorea Maritime Institute

METHODOLOGYMETHODOLOGY METHODOLOGYMETHODOLOGY

COLLECTING BASE DATA

- CIY DATA

- SURVEY TO PORT AUTHORITIES

TOOL: UPGARDED MPPM

COUTRY LEVEL SEMINARS

COLLECTING BASE DATA

- CIY DATA

- SURVEY TO PORT AUTHORITIES

TOOL: UPGARDED MPPM

COUTRY LEVEL SEMINARS

Korea Maritime InstituteKorea Maritime Institute

UN/ESCAP Maritime Policy Planning Model (MPPM)UN/ESCAP Maritime Policy Planning Model (MPPM) UN/ESCAP Maritime Policy Planning Model (MPPM)UN/ESCAP Maritime Policy Planning Model (MPPM)

DEVELOPED IN 1992

3 SUB-REGION STUDIES

: ASEAN(1992), SOUTH ASIA(1993), EAST ASIA(1994)

1 INTRA REGIONAL STUDY (1997)

REGIONAL SHIPPING AND PORT DEVELOPMENT STUDY (2001)

DEVELOPED IN 1992

3 SUB-REGION STUDIES

: ASEAN(1992), SOUTH ASIA(1993), EAST ASIA(1994)

1 INTRA REGIONAL STUDY (1997)

REGIONAL SHIPPING AND PORT DEVELOPMENT STUDY (2001)

Korea Maritime InstituteKorea Maritime Institute

MODULES OF MPPMMODULES OF MPPM MODULES OF MPPMMODULES OF MPPM

Korea Maritime InstituteKorea Maritime Institute

TRADE MODULEFORECAST TRADE FLOW

ON COUNTY TO COUNTRY BASE

PORT ASSIGNMENTMODULE

COUNTY TO COUNTRY TRADE FLOW TO PORT TO PORT FLOW

LINER SHIPPINGNETWORK MODULE

ALLOCATE TRADE FLOW TO SHIPPING ROUTE

UPGRADE MPPMUPGRADE MPPM UPGRADE MPPMUPGRADE MPPM

ORIGINAL MPPM

- BASED ON DOS SYSTEM

- RESTRICTED NUMBER OF PORT AND T/S HUB

- DIFFICULT TO USE

UPGRADED MPPM

- WINDOW VERSION

- USER FRIENDLINESS

- POSSIBLE INLAND TRASPORTATION SYSTEM EXPANSION

KOREAN GOV’T FINANCES MODEL UPGRADE

ORIGINAL MPPM

- BASED ON DOS SYSTEM

- RESTRICTED NUMBER OF PORT AND T/S HUB

- DIFFICULT TO USE

UPGRADED MPPM

- WINDOW VERSION

- USER FRIENDLINESS

- POSSIBLE INLAND TRASPORTATION SYSTEM EXPANSION

KOREAN GOV’T FINANCES MODEL UPGRADE

Korea Maritime InstituteKorea Maritime Institute

POSSIBLE BENEFICIARIESPOSSIBLE BENEFICIARIES POSSIBLE BENEFICIARIESPOSSIBLE BENEFICIARIES

PORT PLANNER/GOVERNMENT

FOMULATING REALISTIC STRATEGIES IN DEVELOPING PORT FACILITIES AND HUB-PORT

SHIPOWNER

SHIPPING ROUTE DECISION, SHIPPING CAPACITY INVESTMENT

SHIPPER

EFFICIENT SHIPPING NETWORK

PORT PLANNER/GOVERNMENT

FOMULATING REALISTIC STRATEGIES IN DEVELOPING PORT FACILITIES AND HUB-PORT

SHIPOWNER

SHIPPING ROUTE DECISION, SHIPPING CAPACITY INVESTMENT

SHIPPER

EFFICIENT SHIPPING NETWORK

Korea Maritime InstituteKorea Maritime Institute

STUDY OUTPUTSTUDY OUTPUT STUDY OUTPUTSTUDY OUTPUT

REGIONAL MARITIME STRATEGY PLANNING PUBLICATION INCLUDING CONTAINER FLOW PROJECTIONS, INVESTMENT REQUIREMENT AND POLICY ACTION GUIDELINES

REPORT OF STUDY FINDINGS AND PROCEDINGS OF THE COUNTRY-LEVEL SEMINARS

REGIONAL MARITIME STRATEGY PLANNING PUBLICATION INCLUDING CONTAINER FLOW PROJECTIONS, INVESTMENT REQUIREMENT AND POLICY ACTION GUIDELINES

REPORT OF STUDY FINDINGS AND PROCEDINGS OF THE COUNTRY-LEVEL SEMINARS

Korea Maritime InstituteKorea Maritime Institute

PROJECT STAGES AND SCHEDULEPROJECT STAGES AND SCHEDULE PROJECT STAGES AND SCHEDULEPROJECT STAGES AND SCHEDULE

Korea Maritime InstituteKorea Maritime Institute

STAGES2003 2004

M J J A S O N D J F M A

DATA

SURVEY

SCENARIO EVALUATION

ANALYTICAL

REPORT

COUNTY LEVEL SEMINAR

FIANL REPORT

PROJECT BUDGETPROJECT BUDGET PROJECT BUDGETPROJECT BUDGET

Korea Maritime InstituteKorea Maritime Institute

ITEMS APEC FUNDING SELF FINANCING

DIRECT LABOUR 30,000 30,000

TRAVEL 29,000 -

PRINTING 4,000 -

COMMUNICATIONS 2,000 -

TOTAL 65,000 30,000

(IN US$)

UN/ESCAP WILL PROVIDE THE SOURCE OF MPPM AND THE GOVERNMENT OF REPUBLIC OF KOREA WILL UPGARDE THE MPPM AT THE COST OF US$100,000 THIS YEAR.

THANK YOU VERY MUCHTHANK YOU VERY MUCH

KOREA MARITIME INSTITUTEKOREA MARITIME INSTITUTE