Lake Erie Land and Water - Clarifying the Urban Land - Eutrophication LinkageLEMN Research Needs Workshop 4.5A

Thursday March 21, 2013 – Geraldo’s at LaSalle Park, Burlington, ON

Lake Erie Millennium Network (LEMN) http://www.uwindsor.ca/erie2001 Binational Network - formed November 1998

Convening Organizations: F.T. Stone Lab - Ohio State University (Jeff Reutter) NWRI - Environment Canada (Chris Marvin) Large Lakes Research lab - US EPA (Russ Kreis) University of Windsor (Jan Ciborowski)

Sponsors: Federal, State, Provincial, Regional organizations

Collaborators: Groups active in research/information exchange

Supporting GroupsSponsors Collaborators__

(funds for meetings, publications, etc.) (contribute to data needs, etc.)

Essex Region Conservation Authority Citizens Environment AllianceGreat Lakes Fishery Commission Cornell University Biological StationInternational Joint Commission Ducks UnlimitedLake Erie Lakewide Area Management Plan Essex County Stewardship Network through Environment Canada & US EPA Great Lakes CommissionMichigan Sea Grant Great Lakes Environ. Res. Lab - NOAALake Erie Protection Fund Great Lakes Research ConsortiumNew York Sea Grant Great Lakes Lab Fisheries & AquaticOntario Ministry of the Environment Sci. - Fisheries & Oceans CanadaOntario Ministry of Natural Resources Ontario Commercial Fishery Assoc. Pennsylvania Dept. Environmental Protection Ontario Fed. of Hunters & AnglersPennsylvania Sea Grant Ohio Dept. Natural Resources US Geological Survey - Gt. Lakes Sci. Ctr. Ohio Environ. Protection Agency

Ontario Ministry Agriculture & Food Campbell Scientific Water Environment Federation DTE Energy, Inc. Hoskin Scientific

Monitoring

ModelingHypothesis testing

Research Questions Status of the Lake

Management Needs

Relationship among management, research, & monitoring needs within LEMN.

Forming collaborative groups (open to all)

Policy

Workshops and Research Arising

1. Limits on Energy Transfer in the Lake Erie Ecosystem - Critical Tests of Hypotheses

EPA-funded Lake Erie Trophic Status project (2002):-28 PI’s funded by US EPA ($500K)-all agency collaboration $2M in kind support - Journal of Great Lakes Research special issue (June/06)

2. Contaminant Processes in Lake Erie (2000)- Part I. Loadings, Spatial Patterns, and Temporal Trends  - Part II. Mechanisms and Processes  - Part III. Ecosystem Implications  [review papers]

3. Habitat Structure, Function, and Change Anticipating effects of water level changes on habitat distribution & quality in the Huron-Erie Corridor

- funded by GLFC; 5 PI’s & cooperators; models proposed (2004) Binational Mapping Strategy for Lake Erie watershed

- funded by US EPA & Envir. Cda. (2005/06)-12 PI’s & cooperators- all agency collaboration

Workshops and Research Arising

4. Land-Lake Loadings IJC & OMAFRA Sponsored workshops (2008-2010):

-28 PI’s funded by US EPA ($500K)-all agency collaboration $2M in kind support - Journal of Great Lakes Research special issue (June/06)

5. Understanding Causes of Nearshore Eutrophication (2009)- BEC Intensive monitoring year (EPA, EC, MOE, OMNR, etc.)- 7 integrated projects funded by US EPA & LEPF   - parallel studies in Ontario- SERA 17 Phosphorus forum

6. Collaborative Research under GLRI (& EC support) (2010)- update landuse/landcover for habitat classification- continuing nearshore research- monitoring wetland condition & ecological services

Great Lakes Composite Stress

Fuzzy Logic Model: Nutrient Dynamics

Fertilizer Application

Conventional Tillage

Septic Systems

Rural Agriculture

Livestock/Manure

Agriculure No-till

Urban

Drought

Natural Stream

Function

Wetlands

Natural Cover

Storm Event/Flooding

Climate Change

Riparian Buffers

Dreissenid Biomass

ShippingSediment Load/TSS

TP (incl. SRP): Loadings &

Concentrations

Internal Nutrient Cycling

Water Clarity

Water Temperature

Cladophora Biomass

Blue Green Algae Biomass

Impervious Surfaces

Bio-Mimicry (sustainable

cities)

Urban Stormwater

runoff

WWTPs

Hypoxia Fish Habitat Impairments

BotulismAesthetic

ImpairmentsBacteria at

beachesTaste and

Odour

Blue Green Algae Biomass

Cladophora Biomass

TP (incl. SRP): Loadings &

Concentrations

Shoreline Alteration

Toxins

WWTP Bypass

Increasing

Decreasing

Groundwater P Loadings

“Management interventions and causal structure”

• To solve a problem, we have to understand the cause

• Successful management also requires understanding the causes

• Different management strategies can be seen as experiments to assess causes

Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM)

• A tool for representing the causal structure of a system

• Elements include concepts (vertices; boxes) and relation-ships among concepts (arcs; arrows)

• The resulting FCM is (formally) a graph, and can be analyzed using various graph-theory techniques.

– S. Findlay

IJC-Sponsored WorkshopFebruary 2009

Original Exercise: Assessing causes of Eutrophication in the Great Lakes (S. Findlay, J. Koonce, J. Ciborowski et al.

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Concepts (‘boxes’): Descriptors of the system.

Drivers (‘from’ variables) and Receivers (‘to’ variables)Restriction for FCM: Ordinal variables (must have a “size”)

Problem Term: “Soil Type”(important variable, but categorical)

Solution: Describe ordinal attributes- Soil permeability- Soil carbon content

Procedure for drawing FCM

1. Review lists of variable (grouped by functional class for convenience)

2. Select variables (labels) deemed most relevant for your map3. Arrange variables to form a flow chart.4. If no label exists for a variable, tell a facilitator; we’ll create

one or suggest an equivalent variable5. Write your team name/number prominently in a corner of

the map.6. Draw lines/arrows/pathways in pen/pencil from each

keyword (label) to other labels (variables) that are directly influenced. The ‘from’ label is considered the ‘driver’ or ‘emitter’; the ‘to’ label is the ‘response’ or ‘receiver’ variable. Draw a directional symbol near the origin of the line. If you think there is a feedback loop between two variables, draw two lines; one going from ‘A’ to ‘B’ and the other going from ‘B’ to ‘A’.

7. Indicate the ‘sign’ of the relationship with a symbol (+ or -) near the origin of the arrow. Write the number of the receiver variable beside the sign.

8. Provide information about each relationship (line) on a tracking sheet or in an Excel file.

Procedure for drawing FCM (Cont’d)

8. Use the tally sheets provided or an Excel file on a laptop to enter

the information neededTop of page: Team number; page numberUsing one row of the sheet for each line on the map: Place a value in each box of the row 1 “From” (driver) variable number2 “To” (recipient) variable number3 sign of the relationship (- or +) 4 strength of association (1=weak; 5=strong)5 spatial extent, (1=very local; 5=pertains everywhere)6 temporal extent (1=rarely pertains; 5=always pertains)7 time to response (1=very slow; 5=immediate)8 scientific certainty (1=poor understanding; 5=certain)9 team’s confidence (1=very uncertain; 5=very confident)10 change feasibility (1= very difficult; 5=very easy)

9. When the map is complete, tell a facilitator, who will photograph or scan your map.

Attributes: Describe the strength of the relationship, (not the importance of the driver or the recipient)

Sign: + = positive = negativeImportance/strength 1 = unimportant 5 = very importantSpatial extent 1 = rel. is local 5 = relationship holds

everywhereTemporal extent 1= rel. rarely occurs 5 = relationship always

holdsTime to response 1=very long lag time 5= immediate responseScientific certainty 1=basis for rel. poorly 5 = strong scientific

understood understandingTeam’s confidence 1=little confidence in 5 = very confident in

rating scoringChange_feasibility 1 = uncontrollable 5 = very controllable

“Arcs” (Arrows): Relationships between pairs of variables

Team 1 Team 2 Team 3 Team 4 Team 5 Roamers

Brad BassMary-Claire

DoyleSamaresh

DasLuca

CargnelliSommer Abdel-

Fattah Raj

Bejankiwar

Terri BulmanSamantha

DupreShreya Ghose

Sandra Cooke Jennifer Drake

Jianrong LiuNeil

Hutchinson Brian GinnJerome Marty

Richard Nesbitt 

Clara Tucker Henry Jun John PawlakGus

Rungis Igor YereminSandra George

Jordan Richie  Tom Dole 

Amanjot SinghMary Ellen

Scanlon   

Facilitators: Jan Ciborowski, Jesse Gardner Costa, Patrick Galvano (Windsor) Brad Bass, Igor Yeremin, Shreya Ghose (Envir Cda)

http://www.LEMN.org