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Large increase in cloud drop concentrations and albedo over sea surfaces
colder than 7°C
Daniel Rosenfeld, Tom Goren, David Giguzin
The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel
Wm-2-50 -30 0 30 50
Absorbed Shortwave Radiation Mean Error – CMIP5
SOCRATES hypotheses for explaining the error
1. Too little low water clouds
2. Wrong cloud microphysics
3. Wrong aerosol transport
4. Persistent supercooled water clouds without freezing
5. Remote sensing errors
Yes for 1-4, But why?
Zabori et al., ACP 2012SST
Sea
spr
ay N
The research questions1. How do SST, wind speed (WS) and
marine productivity (P) affect cloud drop number concentrations (Nd)?
2. How does Nd affect cloud solar radiative effect (CRE)?
Data sources:Nd – retrieved from MODISWS – retrieved from scaterometersSST – NOAA/ESRL daily SST productP – Oregon State U. Ocean Productivity page
SST
SST, Wind Speed, Productivity
4622 scenes of 100x100 km
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 5 10 15 20 25
SST<5 C10>SST>5C15>SST>10C
20>SST>15CSST>20 C
Nd [
cm-3
]
Wind speed [m/s]
E
Nd does not depend on WS
Nd
cm-3
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
WS<5 m/s10>WS>5m/s15>WS>10m/s
20>WS>15m/sWS>20 m/s
Nd [
cm-3
]
Sea Surface Temperture [C]
C
Nd increases with colder SST, with no effect of WS
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
SST>20C20>SST>15C15>SST>10C10>SST>5CSST<5C
Nd [c
m-3
]
Productivity
A
Nd decreases with productivity ?!The increase of Nd with colder SST is dominant.
0
50
100
150
200
250
Nd
cm
-3
SST>7 SST<7
<10WS: >1710-17 <10 >1710-17 ms-1
N=863 1192 624 566 608 769
SST>7°C SST<7°CWS
Nd
cm-3
Nd increases with colder SST, with no effect of WS
Normalized number size distributions for winter experiments resulting from bubble bursting of sea water at different temperatures (reproduced from Figure 11 of Zabori et al., ACP 2013). Strong winds particles and are capable of rising larger particles to cloud base, which lower supersaturation and suppress the activation of the added smaller particles into cloud drops, regardless of the concentrations of the small particles.
50
60
70
80
90
100
-130
-120
-110
-100
-90
-80
-70
Nd T<7CNd T>7C
CF% T<7CCF% T>7C
CRE T<7CCRE T>7C
Nd [
cm-3
];
Clo
ud
fra
ctio
n [
%]
Clo
ud
Rad
iative Effect [w
m-2]
Wind Speed [ms-1]
<10 10-17 >17
50
60
70
80
90
100
-130
-120
-110
-100
-90
-80
-70
Nd T<7CNd T>7C
CF% T<7CCF% T>7C
CRE T<7CCRE T>7C
Nd [
cm-3
];
Clo
ud
fra
ctio
n [
%]
Clo
ud
Rad
iative Effect [w
m-2]
Wind Speed [ms-1]
<10 10-17 >17
50
60
70
80
90
100
-130
-120
-110
-100
-90
-80
-70
Nd T<7CNd T>7C
CF% T<7CCF% T>7C
CRE T<7CCRE T>7C
Nd [
cm-3
];
Clo
ud
fra
ctio
n [
%]
Clo
ud
Rad
iative Effect [w
m-2]
Wind Speed [ms-1]
<10 10-17 >17
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
14 30 54 98 169
CR
E [
W m
-2]
N=332
8243541800
1312
Nd [cm-3]
A
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
14 30 54 98 169
Clo
ud
Fra
cti
on
N=332824
354
1800
1312
Nd [cm-3]
B
Negative Solar Cloud Radiative Effect increases with Nd
Cloud Fraction increases with Nd
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
10 100
CRE = 66.4 - 88.4 log(Nd) R= 0.998CF= 0.0454 + 0.34 log(Nd) R= 0.996
CR
E [
W m
-2] C
lou
d F
ractio
n
Nd [cm-3]
A
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
10 100
CRE = 66.4 - 88.4 log(Nd) R= 0.998CF= 0.0454 + 0.34 log(Nd) R= 0.996
CR
E [
W m
-2] C
lou
d F
ractio
n
Nd [cm-3]
A
Variable
SST<7°C SST>7°C
Means diffN Mean SE N Mean SE
Nd 1943 93.9 1.0 2679 57.6 0.7 36.3
CRE 1943 -110.5 1.0 2679 -79.4 1.1 -31.1
CF 1943 0.74 0.007 2679 0.60 0.007 0.14
Variable
SST<7°C SST>7°C
Means diffN Mean SE N Mean SE
Nd 1943 93.9 1.0 2679 57.6 0.7 36.3
CRE 1943 -110.5 1.0 2679 -79.4 1.1 -31.1
CF 1943 0.74 0.007 2679 0.60 0.007 0.14
CRE=-23 Wm-2-23/-31≈3/4
75% of the Nd effect on CRE is mediated by increasing CF, i.e., cloud lifetime effect.
Conclusions1. The dependence of Nd on SST explains enhanced solar
reflectance of ~30 Wm-2 in the high latitudes of the Southern Oceans.
2. Effects of wind speed and productivity are not obvious.
3. The enhanced Nd occurs probably due to the increased sub-micron sea spray particles at the colder SST. The physical reason for that has yet to be discovered.
4. Most (3/4) of the effect of Nd on CRE is mediated through the cloud lifetime effect, by suppressing coalescence and glaciation. Only 1/4 remains for the cloud brightening effect by the added Nd.
5. This might explain also the abundance of supercooled cloud water in the Southern Oceans.
6. The found effect matches the missing solar reflectance in the GCMs. The SST effect might be the missing process in the models.
0
50
100
150
200
250
<30
0
300
-600
>60
0
<30
0
300
-600
>60
0
<30
0
300
-600
>60
0
<30
0
300
-600
>60
0
Clo
ud
dro
p n
um
ber
co
nce
ntr
atio
ns
[cm
-3]
T>7 T>7 T<7T<7WS<10 WS>10
Prod =
SST=
340 840 619 1090 265390 178 432 113 29N= 312 14
10.9 11.9 13.9 3.6 4.715.1 16.0 2.1 4.2 4.918.9 5.4