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Latin America’s Bicentenary and the Maddison Legacy Maddison Memorial Conference André Hofman - Director CEPAL Review Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Amsterdam, November 2010

Latin Americas Bicentenary and the Maddison Legacy Maddison Memorial Conference André Hofman - Director CEPAL Review Economic Commission for Latin America

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Latin Americas Bicentenary and the Maddison Legacy Maddison Memorial Conference Andr Hofman - Director CEPAL Review Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Amsterdam, November 2010 Slide 2 Outline Introduction. Bicentenary Latin America: Economic growth in the very long run, 1500-2010. Growth and Productivity in Latin America, 1950-2010: Growth accounting. Growth and Productivity in Latin America, 1990-2010: LA-KLEMS. Final remarks. Slide 3 Introduction This presentation is about growth and productivity in Latin America and the influence of the work of Angus Maddison in research on growth and productivity in Latin America and some future research indications. It is partially based on a article Angus and I were preparing Latin Americas Bicentenary: Long run performance in an international comparative perspective, 1500-2010, but it contains also some new elements related with growth and productivity in Latin America. Slide 4 Introduction ( cont. ) 3 periods of analysis in Latin America. All periods end with 2010 but in each subsequent period new analytical and empirical tools are introduced. The periods are: 1500-2010 Bicentenary Latin America - Economic growth and productivity in the very long run. 1950-2010 Growth and productivity in Latin America: Growth accounting. 1990-2010 Disaggregated growth and productivity in Latin America: The LA-KLEMS approach. Important characteristic is the systematic use of quantitative evidence in a macroeconomic - national accounts - framework. Slide 5 Bicentenary Latin America - Economic growth and productivity in the very long run, 1500-2010. Slide 6 Benchmarks 1500, 1820, 1870, 1913, 1950, 1973. 1500-1820 Extensive growth in Latin America, discovery, conquest and destruction. Slide 7 Bicentenary Latin America - Economic growth and productivity in the very long run, 1500-2010. 1820-1870 Independence period in Latin America. Very low growth in comparison with rest of the world. 1870-1913 Rapid growth in the world and also in Latin America. Foreign direct investment and international trade. 1913-1950 Faster growth in Latin America compared to the world economy. Growth was faster in part because of internal production capacity expanded as WW and crisis made import substitution necessary. Slide 8 Table 1 LEVELS OF PER CAPITA GDP AND INTERREGIONAL SPREAD, 1500 - 2008 (1990 international dollars) Source: Maddison (2001). Slide 9 Table 2 LEVELS OF PER CAPITA GDP AND INTERREGIONAL SPREAD, 1500 - 2008 (1990 international dollars) Source: Maddison and Hofman (forthcoming). 1500182018701913195019732008 Latin America416692681148125064504 6973 Western Europe771120419603458457911416 22246 Western Offshoots400120224195233926816179 30152 Japan5006697371387192111434 22816 West702110918823672564913082 25544 Asia (excluding Japan)5725775506586341226 5030 Eastern Europe & f. USSR498686941155826025 731 8102 Africa4144205006378941410 1780 Rest53857860686010912072 4892 World566667875152521114091 7614 Interregional Spread1.9:12.9:14.8:18.2:114.6:113.2:1 16.9:1 West/Rest Spread1.3:11.9:13.1:14.3:15.2:16.3:1 5.2:1 Slide 10 Table 3 LATIN AMERICA: TOTAL GDP, 1500 2008 (average annual growth rate) Sources: Maddison and Hofman (forthcoming). 1500 1820 1820 70 1870 1913 1913 50 1950 73 1973 2001 1973- 2008 2001- 2008 Latin America0.16-0.031.821.432.580.91 1.392.16 Western Europe0.140.981.330.764.051.88 1.951.54 Western Offshoots 0.341.411.811.562.451.84 1.891.21 Japan0.090.191.480.888.062.14 1.21 West0.141.061.571.173.721.95 1.841.44 Asia (excluding Japan) 00.100.420.102.913.55 4.756.37 Eastern Europe & f. USSR 0.10.631.181.43.490.05 1.375.89 Africa00.350.570.9220.19 0.742.63 Rest0.020.060.820.652.831.75 2.795.28 World0.050.541.30.882.921.41 1.882.95 Slide 11 Table 4 Population, 1500 - 2008 (million) Source: Maddison and Hofman (forthcoming). 15001820187019131950197320012008 Latin America 18 224081166308531580 Western Europe57 133188261305358392401 Western Offshoots3 1146111176251340363 Japan15 31345284109127 West75175268424565718859891 Asia (excluding Japan)268 6797319261299214035273844 E. Europe & f. USSR 30 91142236267360411404 Africa 47 7490125227390821975 Rest 363866100313681959319852905803 World 438 1042127217912524391661496695 % West/World 17.116.821.123.722.418.314.013.3 Slide 12 Bicentenary Latin America - Economic growth and productivity in the very long run, 1500-2010. Research agenda. Level of Latin American population at conquest is still a very controversal theme. Angus took a relatively conservative stance with the estimate of 18 million. Estimates alone for Central Mexico ranged from 4.5 million to 100 million. Future research is needed to narrow this range. More research needed on colonial heritage, new institutional set-up after independence, economic growth in specific countries. Reference to Brtola and ECLAC project on the bicentenary. Slide 13 Growth and productivity in Latin America, 1950- 2010: Growth accounting. Slide 14 Table 5 ULTIMATE AND PROXIMATE ELEMENTS EXPLAINING PER CAPITA GDP PERFORMANCE National institutions, ideologies, pressures of socio-economic interest groups, historical accidents, and domestic economic policy Nature of the international economic order, exogenous ideologies, pressures or shocks from friendly or unfriendly neighbours Y (N L K) E + A D P Y = gross domestic product. D = population. N = natural resources augmented by technical progress. L = human capital, i.e. labour input augmented by investment in education and training. K = stocks of physical capital augmented by technical progress. E = efficiency of resource allocation. A = net flow of goods, services, production factors, and technology from abroad. = f Slide 15 Growth accounting The basic framework of growth accounting makes it possible to measure how much increases in inputs and technological progress contribute to economic growth. The starting point for such an analysis is a Cobb- Douglas production function with constant returns to scale in which GDP (Y) is defined as a function of multifactor productivity (A) and factor inputs (capital, K, and labour, L): Where Z and H are the quality indices for capital and labour, respectively. H is an index for the quality of the labour force based on educational level. Slide 16 Growth accounting Taking logs and differentiating with respect to time, and assuming perfect competition, Solow (1957) shows how estimates of the share of factor inputs in GDP can be used to weight the contribution of the rate of increase in inputs to arrive at simple estimates of MFP growth as a residual. Nonetheless, Solows estimated residuals are quite sensitive to modifications in factor inputs, in respect of both their level of utilization and their quality. Assuming zero adjustment costs for capital accumulation and perfect competition in factor markets, so that the payment received by each of them is equal to their social marginal product. By applying logarithms and derivatives we obtain the standard estimate for MFP growth: Slide 17 Stylized facts on economic growth in Latin America (1950-2005) The growth of economic activity (measured by per capita GDP) in Latin America during the period 1950-2005 shows, among other things, two notable characteristics: a)the presence of breaks in the long-term trend, as can be seen when comparing country growth with a constant growth trend, and b)the heterogeneity of per capita GDP, which translates into disparities in their respective levels, as well as on the growth rates from the second half of the twentieth century on. Slide 18 Stylized facts on economic growth in Latin America (1950-2005) In the past half-century, Latin America has seen very strong fluctuations in its growth pattern and in the contribution of the various factors to growth. Possible causes include low capital formation and fluctuations of productivity. In particular, MFP growth has shown sharp variations since the 1980s; when it appears to have fallen, and then stagnated. Slide 19 Stylized facts on economic growth in Latin America (1950-2005) PER CAPITA GDP IN LATIN AMERICA, 1950-2005 (1950 = 100) Slide 20 A comparison of per capita GDP levels in 1950 with those for 2005 shows no drastic differences in ranking, with a few exceptions. per capita GDP, 1950 (1980 international dollars) per capita GDP, 2005 (1980 international dollars) Argentina2.727Chile6.957 Venezuela (Bol. Rep. of) 2.483Mexico5.750 Chile2.179Argentina5.407 Mexico1.826Costa Rica4.256 Peru1.436Venezuela (Bol. Rep. of) 3.885 Costa Rica1.252Brazil3.433 Colombia1.227Colombia3.208 Ecuador1.025Ecuador3.046 Brazil1.012Peru2.678 Bolivia 926Bolivia1.182 Slide 21 Stylized facts on economic growth in Latin America PER CAPITA GDP IN LATIN AMERICA, 1950-2005 (1950 = 100) Per capita GDP trend Per capita GDP region Slide 22 Stylized facts on economic growth in Latin America PER CAPITA GDP IN LATIN AMERICA, 1950-2005 (1950 = 100) Per capita GDP trend Per capita GDP region Slide 23 Stylized facts on economic growth in Latin America PER CAPITA GDP IN LATIN AMERICA, 1950-2005 (1950 = 100) Per capita GDP trend Per capita GDP region Slide 24 Growth accounting Slide 25 Slide 26 Slide 27 Growth and productivity in Latin America, 1950-2010: Growth accounting. Lessons: Inward orientation was maintained to long. Latin America did not catch-up and did not take advantage of available technological progress. Very low TFP. Crisis of the 1980s was profound and caused lost decade. Latin America lost competitiveness in world markets and became a natural resources exporter. Slide 28 Growth and productivity in Latin America, 1950-2010: Growth accounting. Research agenda Include capital services Measures of capacity utilization Potential output Slide 29 Growth and productivity in Latin America, 1990- 2010: LA-KLEMS. Slide 30 Disaggregated growth and productivity in Latin America 1990-2010: LA-KLEMS - Productivity analysis and the role of ICT in Latin America: Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. Slide 31 Growth and productivity in Latin America, 1990-2010: LA-KLEMS. New element: analysis of economic growth and productivity on the sectoral level (31 sectors). Four Latin American countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. 18 variables in human capital. 7 types of fixed capital formation. Contribution of ICT. Slide 32 Growth accounting - Brasil Slide 33 Growth accounting - Chile Slide 34 Growth accounting - Mxico Slide 35 Including hours worked in productivity analysis Argentina Brasil ChileMxico Slide 36 Table 11 Labour productivity per hour compared to USA (USA=100) Fuentes: LA-KLEMS basado en estimacin de horas trabajadas y datos de ocupados/puestos de trabajo Slide 37 Slide 38 World-KLEMS LA-KLEMS is part of the WORLD-KLEMS project to promote international comparisons of economic growth and productivity at the sectoral level. Participating countries: 25 countries of EU, Australia, Canada, Japan, South Korea and USA. Extend to developing countries: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Rusia, Taiwan and Turkey. Slide 39 Growth and productivity in Latin America, 1990-2010: LA-KLEMS. Research agenda Include not registrated sector (informal) Structural change (between sectors) Structural heterogeneity (within sectors) Relation between sector, age groups, education and income Slide 40 Growth and productivity in Latin America, 1990-2010: LA-KLEMS. Latin America crises in 2009. Institutional set up relatively good (e.g. financial sector). Terms of trade will remain positive as well as demand for Latin American natural resources. Macro fundamentals ok but now micro reforms are needed and sectoral productivity analysis is an important input in economic policy analysis. Slide 41 Summary and conclusions Maddison contributions and future research: -Long term growth analisis: contribution Angus enormous. Latin America in world perspective. Definition of benchmarks in Latin America, analysis in time an starting point in 1500. Future work: Long term growth, improve country detail, refine pre- conquest population estimates. -Medium term analisis: contributed through incorporation of more explanatory variables and growth accounting framework. Future research: Growth accounting, methodological innovations: capital services, MFP analysis. -Actuality: work iniated by Angus and Groningen Growth and Development Centre: LA- KLEMS disaggregated growth accounts and more detailed explanatory analisis. Slide 42 Latin Americas Bicentenary and the Maddison Legacy. Maddison Memorial Conference Muchas gracias.