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KinhKinh tt VitVit NamNam giaigiai onon 20062006--20112011vv TrinTrin vngvng 20122012--20152015

TS. L Xun Ngha

Ph ch tch y ban Gim st Ti chnh Quc gia

H Ni, thng 1 nm 2012

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Tc tngTc tng trngtrng GDPGDP giaigiai onon 20002000--20112011

6.79%6.89%7.08%

7.34%

7.79%

8.44%

8.23%

8.46%

6.31%

5.32%

6.78%

5.89%

5.00%

5.50%

6.00%

6.50%

7.00%

7.50%

8.00%

8.50%

9.00%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Ngun: TCTK.

((nn vv: %): %)

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T l vn u t ton x hi/GDP giai on 2006T l vn u t ton x hi/GDP giai on 2006--20112011

41.5

46.5

41.5

42.7

41.9

34.634

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Ngun: TCTK.

((nn vv: %): %)

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T trng u t ca cc khu vc kinh t trong tng u t tonT trng u t ca cc khu vc kinh t trong tng u t tonxx hihi giaigiai on 2006on 2006--20112011

((nn vv: %): %)

45.745.737.237.2 33.933.9 40.540.5 38.138.1 38.938.9

38.138.1

38.538.5 35.235.2 33.933.9 36.136.1 35.235.2

16.216.224.324.3

30.930.9 25.625.6 25.825.8 25.925.9

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Khu vc nh nc Khu vc ngoi nh nc Khu vc c vn u t trc tip nc ngoi

Ngun: Tnh ton t s liu ca TCTK.4


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TitTit kimkim -- uu tt v nhp siuv nhp siu caca nnnn kinhkinh tt giaigiai onon 20052005--20102010

((nn vv: %): %)

Ngun: Tnh ton t s liu ca Nin gim thng k 2010 (trang 140).5


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TcTc tngtng TngTng snsn lnglng (GO)(GO) vv GiGi trtr giagia tngtng (VA)(VA) cacannnn kinhkinh tt giaigiai onon 20012001--20102010

((nn vv: %): %)

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ngng gpgp caca cccc nhnnhn tt vnvn,, laolao ngng vv TFPTFPvovo tngtng trngtrng kinhkinh tt VitVit NamNam giaigiai onon 20002000--20052005 vv 20062006--20102010

((nn vv: %): %)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Giai on 2000-2005 Giai on 2006-2010

Vn (K) lao ng (L) Nng sut nhn t tng hp (TFP)

Ngun: Bi Trinh.7


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KimKim ngchngch xutxut,, nhpnhp khukhu vv nhpnhp siusiugiaigiai onon 20062006--20112011

((nn vv:: TriuTriu USD)USD)

-20000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Xut khu Nhp khu Nhp siu

20062006 20072007 20082008 20092009 20102010 20112011

8,3% 20% 20,1% 14% 12,4% 8%

T l nhp siu so vi GDP giai on 2006 - 2010

Ngun: Tnh ton t s liu ca TCTK.8


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TcTc tngtng chch ss gigi tiutiu dngdng CPICPI caca VitVit NamNamgiaigiai onon 20012001 -- 20112011

((nn vv: %): %)

0.79

4.043.01

9.678.71

6.57

12.75

19.87

6.52

11.75

18.13

0

5

10

15

20

25

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Ngun: TCTK.9


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QuyQuy mm ThuThu -- Chi NSNNChi NSNN giaigiai onon 20012001--20052005 vv 20062006--20102010((nn vv: %): %)

24.6

27.2

32.636.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2001-2005 2006-2010

Quy m thu Quy m chi

Ngun: B Ti chnh.10


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N cng, n nc ngoi, n cng nc ngN cng, n nc ngoi, n cng nc ngoioi 20062006 20102010((nn vv: %GDP): %GDP)

20

30

40

50

60

2007 2008 2009 2010

N cng N nc ngoi N cng nc ngoi

Ngun: B Ti chnh.11


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ChCh ss VnIndex vVnIndex v khikhi lnglng giaogiao dchdchgiaigiai onon giaigiai onon 2006 n 20112006 n 2011

((nn vv::imim;;triutriu cc phiuphiu//phinphin))

0

20000000

40000000

60000000

80000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

16000000

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1/4/2006 1/4/2007 1/4/2008 1/4/2009 1/4/2010 1/4/2011 1/4/2012

Khi lng giao dchKhi lng giao dch VNIndexVNIndex

Ngun: HSX.12


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TcTc tngtng cungcung tintin vv tntn dngdng giaigiai onon 20062006--20112011((nn vv: %): %)

NmNm 20062006 20072007 20082008 20092009 20102010 cc 20112011

Tc tng M2 32,0 41,2 20,3 27,5 29,8 ~10

Tc tng tn dng 24,8 48,9 23,4 37,5 31,2 12-13%

M2/GDP danh ngha (ln) 0,97 1,16 1,08 1,23 1,34 1,15

Tn dng/GDP danh ngha (ln) 0,71 0,90 0,86 1,06 1,16 1,02

TT ll chocho vayvay//huyhuy ngng (LDR)(LDR) giaigiai onon 20082008--20112011

Nm 2008 2009 2010 c 2011LDR 0,95 1,01 1,01 1,02-1,03

Ngun: UBGSTCQG.13


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TT gigi danhdanh nghangha songsong phngphng vv tt gigi thcthc songsong phngphng USD/VNDUSD/VND giaigiaionon 2006 n nay2006 n nay ((nmnm 2000 = 100)2000 = 100)

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

130.0

140.0

150.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*

T gi danh ngha song phng T gi thc song phng

Ngun: UBGSTCQG.14


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DDbobo trintrin vngvng kinhkinh tt thth giigiigiaigiai onon 20122012--20132013

ChCh tiutiu 20112011

TrinTrin vngvng kinhkinh tt 20122012TrinTrin vngvng

kinhkinh tt 20132013Kch bn ttKch bn ttKch bnKch bn

trungtrung bnhbnh

Kinh t th gii

Tc tng trng GDP 4% 3,2-4% 2,4-3,2% 3,6%

Ccncphttrin 1,6% 2,0-2,5% 1-2% 2,6%

Ccnc angphttrin 6,4% 5 -6% 4-5% 6,3%

Tc tng trng thng mi toncu (lng)

7,5% 5,7%-7,5% 3,5-5,7% 7,7%

Ccncphttrin - 4-5% 3-4% -

Ccnc angphttrin - 7-8% 6-7% -

Ngun: D bo ca cc t chc quc t v UBGSTCQG.

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ChCh tiutiu 20112011

TrinTrin vngvng kinhkinh tt 20122012TrinTrin vngvng

kinhkinh tt 20132013Kch bn ttKch bn ttKch bnKch bn

trungtrung bnhbnh

Kinh t Vit Nam

Tc tng trng GDP (%) 5,89 6-6,3 5,5-5,9 6,4-6,7

Tc tng lm pht (%) 18,13 8-10 8-10 6-7

Kim ngch xut khu (t USD, %) 96,26(33,3%)

107,8-108,8(12-13%)

105,9-107,8(10-12%)

121,8-123,9(15-17%)

Kim ngch nhp khu (t USD, %) 105,77(25%)112,2-113,2

(6-7%)

113,2-114,3(7-8%)

129,2-131,5(12-14%)

T l nhp siu/xut khu 9,9% 4-5% 5-7% 6-8%

DDbobo mtmt ss chch tiutiu kinhkinh tt vvmm VitVit NamNam giaigiai onon 20122012--20132013

Ngun: GSO, d bo ca UBGSTCQG.

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Tc tng trng cung tin (M2): 15-17%/nm.

Tc tng trng tn dng ni a: 17-20%/nm.

Bi chi ngn sch nh nc: 4,5-4,9% GDP.

Thm ht thng mi: 5-8% GDP.

Cn cn thanh ton quc t: thng d 3-4 t USD/nm.

D tr ngoi hi: tng ng 6-8 tun nhp khu.

DDbobo mtmt ss chch tiutiu titi chnhchnh tintin tt nn nmnm 20152015

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Kch bn tt: Tng trng kinh t nm 2012 c th t mc 6-6,3%. y l kch bn xy ra vi cc iu

kin sau:

o Kinh t th gii tng trng mc kh cao: 3,2-4%.

o T trng u t ca khu vc t nhn trong tng u t ton x hi cn tng t 35,2% nm 2011 ln

mc 43% nm 2012; trong khi t trng u t ca khu vc nh nc gim t 38,9% nm 2011 xung

cn 34% nm 2012.

o Tng trng tn dng cn trn 25%.

Kch bn trung bnh: Tng trng kinh t nm 2012 c th t mc 5,6-5,9%. yl kch bn xy ra trong

iu kin nh sau:

o Kinh t th gii tng trng mc thp:2,4-3,2%.

o T trng u t ca khu vc t nhn chim 40,5-41% tng u t ton x hi; trong khi t trng ca

khu vc nh nc l 36,5-37%.

o Tng trng tn dng mc t 15-17%.

HaiHai kchkch bnbn tngtng trngtrng nmnm 20122012

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Tip tc tp trung kim ch lm pht, n nh kinh t vm trn c s thc hin

CSTT cht ch, thn trng, linh hot; CSTK cht ch, hiu qu; tng cng kim

sot th trng, gi c, t chc tt th trng trong nc v khuyn khch xut

khu, kim sot nhp khu, hn ch nhp siu.

Ti c cu nn kinh t vi 3 trng tm: ti c cu u t cng; ti c cu doanh

nghip nh nc; ti c cu h thng ngn hng.

Pht trin v nng cao cht lng nhn lc.

Thc y ci cch hnh chnh, pht trin b my nh nc theo m hnh cung cp

dch v cng.

Cc bin php v x hi, mi trng

KinKin nghngh chnhchnh schsch

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Lm pht nm 2012 c th gim xung thp.

Tuy nhin, cha c c s gim li sut, mc d lm pht c th gim mnhv nhng l do sau:

Cc ngn hng thiu thanh khon nn khng c tin cho vay.

Lng tin ngi dn cha phc hi.

N xu cn rt ln v khng th gii quyt trong mt vi thng, theo ngun vn quay tr li ngn hng rt t chi ph cho vay tng ln.

C th gim c li sut hay khng?C th gim c li sut hay khng?

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Mt nhim v trng tm nht v cn thc hin ngay trong qu I/2012 l n nh thanh khon ca h thng

ngn hng thng qua cc cng c sau:

o Ti cp vn trc tip t NHNN.

o Tng DTBB tin gi, to ngun cho NHNN iu ha vn t ngn hng tha sang ngn hng thiu

vn.

o M rng c ch cho php cc ngn hng kinh doanh vng ti khon s dng ngun vn t vng b

sung cho thanh khon ca h thng ngn hng.

o Khi c iu kin thch hp (tm l lm pht gim mnh, lm pht tip tc c kim sot tt) th c

th b trn li sut huy ng v gim li sut tn dng (bin php ny d kin c th thc hin t u

qu II/2012).

Thc hin CSTT cht ch, thn trng, linh hot.

C nh hng tp trung vo nhng ngnh cn u tin.

Linh hot cng c thanh khon ca th trng ti sn (BS v chng khon).

ChnhChnh schsch tintin tt

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Thc hin CSTK cht ch, hiu qu.

R sot v chn chnh li quy hoch u t cng.

Tng cng kim sot trch nhim v hiu qu u t cng.

Chng lng ph v tham nhng

ChnhChnh schsch titi khakha

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Ti cu trc th trng vn theo hng tng cng minh bch v trch nhim

gii trnh.

To thm ngun hng mi c cht lng v quy m tr ct.

Pht trin h thng thanh ton.

Pht trin mnh th trng tri phiu.

Tng cng cng tc gim st.

PhtPht trintrin thth trngtrng vnvn

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