Mainstreet - Saskatchewan's Choice

8/18/2019 Mainstreet - Saskatchewan's Choice

1/14


2/14

SASKATCHEWAN’S CHOICE

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,509 Saskatchewan residents by Smart IVR™ on March 31s

2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.72%, 19 times out of Regional margins of error: Regina: +/-4.37%; Saskatoon: +/-4.39%; Rest of SK: +/-4.35%, 19 times out

20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.


3/14

THE

EASIEST

PREDICTION

WE WILL

EVER MAKE

You already know what this is going to say. If the outcome of the Saskatchewan election was clear at tart it is even clearer now. That’s why we’re declaring this the easiest election we’ve ever had to call.

The Saskatchewan election was delayed from its scheduled fixed election in early November of 2015 duconflicting schedule with the federal election. As the unofficial campaign began in the winter of 2016, m

national issues and international issues were making headlines that affected Saskatchewan direcpecifically, the prolonged oil price decline, questions about pipeline development, and the considerat

of a national plan for carbon pricing. During this time, Brad Wall was the voice defending the resounterests of Saskatchewan, supporting pipeline development in Energy East and making a case aga

carbon pricing during this downturn. This is the natural advantage of incumbency, as Premier, Brad Wwas able to speak to these issues and stand up for Saskatchewan interests.

As the campaign began, Brad Wall and the Sask Party enjoyed a tremendous lead over the NDP and C

Broten. The campaign began with the dissolution of the Saskatchewan Legislature on March 8 2016 ome opportunities for growth were there for the NDP and Liberals as media attention would be balan

across all leaders and parties.

nstead of making gains the NDP spent its first week firing candidates and then firing their campamanager - it was a terrible start. A shouty debate later in the campaign also didn’t do much to move needle.

During the last federal election, we saw stable voter intention patterns in very few regions in Cana

Saskatchewan being the sole region that remained consistent and stable from start to finish in marathon campaign. In other words, there was never any doubt.

The only remaining questions at this point are about the size of the majority, whether the NDP can mainheir seat count in the Legislature, and whether the Sask Liberals will come in third or fourth.

Brad Wall is going to win. You were right all along.

QM


4/14

SASKATCHEWAN PARTY MAJORITY GOVERNMENT

April 1st, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the Saskatchewan Party on crcontrol for a victory Monday night. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.72%

imes out of 20.

Brad Wall is on track to win a new majority government” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstr

Research. “The Saskatchewan Party has support across all regions. 91% of Saskatchewan supporters hey are strong supporters who will not change their minds. It’s over.”

There is some question as to whether the Green Party will be able to deliver its support to the p

Traditionally, the Greens always underperform their poll numbers and in this case the Green Party doeshave a full slate.”

Mr. Broten started this campaign by putting out fires. Burnt by social media he headed into a must-

debate which need to be a game-changer - it wasn‘t. The NDP may be able to pull off some upsets in urcentres but it will take local candidates far out-running the party brand with some of the best campaalent on the ground.

Polling Saskatchewan’s election has been a privilege. I am pleased that following the election we continue to look at key issues affecting the province. Mainstreet was the only polling firm to regulelease numbers throughout the campaign. I want to thank the thousands of Saskatchewan residents w

ook part in Mainstreet Polls in this election,” finished Maggi.

About Mainstreet Research

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levelgovernment, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of puopinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in BrColumbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling n several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the o

polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

-30-

Available for Interview from Ottawa: Quito Maggi, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - [email protected]

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protecteby copyright. The information and/or data may onlybe rebroadcast or republished with full and propercredit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.


5/14

If the provincial election were heldtoday,which party would you support?

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Oct 6 Jan 4 Feb 11 Feb 23 Mar 1 Mar 8 Mar 15 Mar 31


6/14

If the provincial electionwere held today,which party

would you support?

PC

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

51%

26%

4%

5%

14%

240

51%

31%

3%

4%

11%

301

59%

26%

2%

2%

11%

407

55%

27%

3%

3%

12%

561

56%

24%

5%

4%

12%

710

52%

31%

1%

3%

12%

799

SK Party

NDP

Liberal

Green

Undecided

Sample

54%

28%

3%

4%

12%

1,509

42%

37%

2%

4%

15%

503

60%

23%

3%

3%

10%

507

SK Party

NDP

Liberal

Green

Undecided

Sample

Saskatchewan Regina Rest of SK

48%

32%

4%

4%

13%

499

Saskatoon


7/14

And which party are youleaning towards voting for?

[Undecided Only]

11%

9%

3%

9%

68%


8/14

DECIDED AND LEANING

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Oct 6 Jan 4 Feb 11 Feb 23 Mar 1 Mar 8 Mar 16 Mar 31


9/14

If the provincial electionwere held today,which party

would you support?[DECIDED AND LEANING]

PC

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

58%

29%

5%

8%

198

56%

35%

4%

5%

270

65%

30%

3%

3%

375

61%

31%

4%

3%

530

62%

27%

6%

5%

685

58%

35%

2%

5%

688

SK Party

NDP

Liberal

Green

Sample

60%

31%

4%

5%

1,373

49%

44%

3%

4%

460

66%

26%

4%

5%

457

SK Party

NDP

Liberal

Green

Sample

Saskatchewan Regina Rest of SK

54%

35%

5%

6%

456

Saskatoon


10/14

Support Strength

StrongMight Change

Not Sure

91%6%2%

SK PARTY

StrongMight Change

Not Sure

83%12%5%

NDP

StrongMight Change

Not Sure

69%19%12%

Liberals


11/14

Second Choice

49%

19%

10%

22%

25%

22%

20%

34%

SK PARTY

NDP


12/14

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?

Saskatchewan Party led by Brad WallNDP led by Cam Broten

Liberal Party led by Darrin Lamoureux

Green Party led by Victor LauUndecided

And which Party are you leaning towards voting for?


Liberal Party led by Darrin LamoureuxGreen Party led by Victor Lau

Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?

Strong SupporterMight Change Mind

Don’t Know

And who would be your second choice?


Liberal Party led by Darrin LamoureuxGreen Party led by Victor Lau

Undecided

SCRIPT


13/14

ONLY WE

CALLED

THELIBERAL

MAJORITY

Mainstreet Research | 132−2255B Queen Street East

| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

“I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because it’s an interviewwith a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Pub

Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such confidence, a weekbefore we voted.

Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 20in defiance of the majority of the polls.

His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanatiofor how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running

political campaign.” - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015


14/14

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all thrlevels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadi

public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liber

government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet h

been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoelection. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal major

government in the 2015 federal election.

CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITE

mainstreetresearch.ca

TWITTER

@MainStResearch

FACEBOOK

fb.com/mainstresearch

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Mainstreet - Saskatchewan's Choice