Mainstreet - Toronto's Democracy

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 2,062 Toronto Residents by Smart IVR™ on April 3rd, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.16%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error: Downtown (DT): +/-4.16%; Etobioke (Etob): +/-4.39%; Scarborough (Scar): +/-4.37%; North York (NY): +/-4.37%; 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

METHODOLOGY

TORONTO’S DEMOCRACY

59% BACK RANKED BALLOT - EVEN IF COUNCIL DOESN’T

April 6, (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll find strong support for voting reforms - with support from ranked ballots, internet voting and shorter campaign periods up from April of 2015. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.16%, 19 times out of 20.

"Torontonians are now saying Internet voting is more secure and a large majority would support shorter campaign periods," said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research, noting Mainstreet had previously benched marked numbers a year prior. “With council potentially re-visiting these topics again we thought we would as well.”

Security of Internet Voting: 54% (+4%)Approval of Internet Voting 59% (+4%)Size of City Council: Just Right 43% (+2%), Too Many Councillors 48% (no change)Approval for shorter campaign period: 71% (+4%)Approval for Voting Rights for Permanent Residents: 55% (-3%)

“Almost half of Torontonians would prefer for there to be less city councillors, only 11% say there are too few councillors though it is likely the ward boundaries review process will create additional wards,” continued Maggi.

“Most Torontonians would support ranked balloting even if City Council doesn’t. In the past Council has supported the initiative, now it may be getting cold feet. The ward boundary review process has the potential to displace Councillors from their pre-existing constituencies. Adding in ranked ballots may make some councillors very nervous about their chances for re-election. Nevertheless, ranked balloting has strong support from Torontonians,” finished Maggi.

About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

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Available for Interview from Ottawa: Quito Maggi, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - [email protected]

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.

A2

A3

Thinking about the next municipal election in the City of Toronto, if Internet voting were introduced, how secure do you think internet voting would be?

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Present April 2015

54%

31%

15%

50%

29%

21%

Secure Unsecure Not Sure

A4


Toronto

22%

32%

17%

14%

15%

2,062

Etob.

21%

31%

16%

16%

15%

499

Scar.

22%

30%

18%

15%

16%

504

DT

24%

33%

16%

13%

14%

556

NY

20%

33%

18%

13%

16%

503

Very Secure

Somewhat Secure

Somewhat Unsecure

Very Unsecure

Not Sure

Sample

Very Secure

Somewhat Secure

Somewhat Unsecure

Very Unsecure

Not Sure

Sample

18-34

25%

30%

17%

13%

15%

267

35-49

24%

29%

18%

15%

14%

364

50-64

22%

28%

20%

16%

14%

695

65+

15%

43%

12%

11%

18%

736

Male

22%

29%

18%

15%

17%

974

Female

22%

35%

16%

13%

14%

1,088

A5

And do you approve or disapprove of introducing Internet Voting for Toronto Municipal Elections?

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Present April 2015

59%

33%

8% 55%

37%

7%

Approve Disapprove Not Sure

A6

Do you approve or disapprove of introducing Internet Voting for Toronto Municipal Elections?

Toronto

38%

21%

16%

17%

8%

Etob.

36%

20%

17%

18%

9%

Scar.

39%

20%

17%

16%

9%

DT

39%

22%

16%

16%

8%

NY

37%

22%

16%

18%

6%

Strongly Approve

Somewhat Approve

Somewhat Disapprove

Strongly Disapprove

Not Sure

Strongly Approve

Somewhat Approve

Somewhat Disapprove

Strongly Disapprove

Not Sure

18-34

41%

22%

15%

16%

7%

35-49

41%

22%

13%

17%

7%

50-64

36%

20%

17%

19%

9%

65+

32%

20%

21%

17%

10%

Male

37%

22%

15%

18%

9%

Female

39%

20%

18%

16%

7%

A7

Size of City Council

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Present April 2015

48%

43%

9% 48%

41%

10%

Too Many Not Enough Just Right

A8

Size of City Council

Toronto

48%

9%

43%

Etob.

49%

10%

41%

Scar.

45%

7%

48%

DT

46%

10%

43%

NY

52%

8%

40%

Too Many

Not Enough

Just Right

Too Many

Not Enough

Just Right

18-34

42%

9%

49%

35-49

45%

10%

45%

50-64

54%

7%

40%

65+

52%

11%

37%

Male

49%

9%

42%

Female

47%

9%

44%

48%

43

9%

Size of Council

A9

Ranked Ballot Voting

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Present April 2015

59%

29%

12%

56%

34%

11%


A10

Ranked Ballot Voting

Toronto

36%

23%

15%

14%

12%

Etob.

35%

24%

13%

15%

13%

Scar.

38%

19%

15%

14%

15%

DT

35%

23%

15%

14%

12%

NY

36%

26%

16%

13%

9%

Strongly Approve

Somewhat Approve

Somewhat Disapprove

Strongly Disapprove

Not Sure

Strongly Approve

Somewhat Approve

Somewhat Disapprove

Strongly Disapprove

Not Sure

18-34

45%

13%

17%

12%

13%

35-49

36%

22%

15%

14%

13%

50-64

35%

22%

13%

15%

15%

65+

24%

39%

15%

16%

6%

Male

35%

23%

15%

15%

12%

Female

37%

23%

15%

13%

12%

A11

Shorter Campaign Period

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Present April 2015

71%

21%

8% 67%

29%

5%


A12

Shorter Campaign Period

Toronto

44%

27%

7%

14%

8%

Etob.

45%

24%

9%

15%

6%

Scar.

46%

27%

7%

13%

8%

DT

43%

28%

6%

14%

9%

NY

42%

28%

6%

13%

10%

Strongly Approve

Somewhat Approve

Somewhat Disapprove

Strongly Disapprove

Not Sure

Strongly Approve

Somewhat Approve

Somewhat Disapprove

Strongly Disapprove

Not Sure

18-34

43%

29%

7%

13%

9%

35-49

44%

30%

7%

12%

7%

50-64

46%

27%

6%

13%

8%

65+

43%

20%

8%

19%

11%

Male

44%

28%

7%

15%

7%

Female

44%

26%

7%

13%

10%

A13

Voting Rights for Permanent Residents

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Present April 2015

55%

36%

9% 58%

36%

7%


A14

Voting Rights for Permanent Residents

Toronto

34%

21%

13%

23%

9%

Etob.

26%

26%

15%

24%

8%

Scar.

35%

20%

13%

22%

11%

DT

37%

20%

12%

22%

8%

NY

34%

20%

12%

23%

11%

Strongly Approve

Somewhat Approve

Somewhat Disapprove

Strongly Disapprove

Not Sure

Strongly Approve

Somewhat Approve

Somewhat Disapprove

Strongly Disapprove

Not Sure

18-34

35%

20%

13%

22%

10%

35-49

37%

20%

12%

22%

9%

50-64

35%

20%

12%

23%

10%

65+

29%

25%

14%

24%

9%

Male

33%

21%

14%

23%

8%

Female

35%

21%

12%

22%

11%

A15

SCRIPT

The Ontario government has proposed a shorter campaign period for municipal elections as a potential reform. Some critics have suggested shorter campaign periods benefit incumbent councilors and make it difficult for challengers to succeed. Do you approve or disapprove of a shorter campaign period for

municipal elections?

Strongly ApproveSomewhat approve

Somewhat disapproveStrongly disapprove

Not Sure

In City of Toronto elections, only citizens can vote. Some have some suggested giving permanent residents the right to vote in municipal elections since they pay property taxes and it would foster a

greater sense of community. Others are firmly opposed and believe only Canadian Citizens should vote in elections. Do you approve or disapprove of extending voting rights in municipal elections to

permanent residents?



Not Sure


Very SecureSomewhat Secure

Somewhat UnsecureVery Unsecure

Not Sure




Not Sure

Currently, there are 44 members of the Toronto City Council and there is a review underway to decide upon ward boundaries. This could see the total number of City Councillors for the City change. Keeping this in mind, do you think there are too many councilors, not enough councilors, or the right amount of

councilors for Toronto?

Too ManyNot EnoughJust Right

Ranked- ballot voting, also known as preferential voting, is a voting system in which you select your first choice on the ballot, then your second choice and so on. Candidates with the least amount of votes are eliminated and their votes are reassigned until a candidate has over 50%. Do you approve or disapprove

of ranked-ballot voting?



Not Sure

A16

SCRIPT

The Ontario government has proposed a shorter campaign period for municipal elections as a potential reform. Some critics have suggested shorter campaign periods benefit incumbent councilors and make it difficult for challengers to succeed. Do you approve or disapprove of a shorter campaign period for

municipal elections?



Not Sure

In City of Toronto elections, only citizens can vote. Some have some suggested giving permanent residents the right to vote in municipal elections since they pay property taxes and it would foster a

greater sense of community. Others are firmly opposed and believe only Canadian Citizens should vote in elections. Do you approve or disapprove of extending voting rights in municipal elections to

permanent residents?



Not Sure


Very SecureSomewhat Secure

Somewhat UnsecureVery Unsecure

Not Sure




Not Sure

Currently, there are 44 members of the Toronto City Council and there is a review underway to decide upon ward boundaries. This could see the total number of City Councillors for the City change. Keeping this in mind, do you think there are too many councilors, not enough councilors, or the right amount of

councilors for Toronto?

Too ManyNot EnoughJust Right

Ranked- ballot voting, also known as preferential voting, is a voting system in which you select your first choice on the ballot, then your second choice and so on. Candidates with the least amount of votes are eliminated and their votes are reassigned until a candidate has over 50%. Do you approve or disapprove

of ranked-ballot voting?



Not Sure

ONLY WE CALLED

THE LIBERAL

MAJORITY.

Mainstreet Research | 132−2255B Queen Street East | Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

“I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because it’s an interview with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public

Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such confidence, a week before we voted.

Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013, in defiance of the majority of the polls.

His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a

political campaign.” - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

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TWITTER @MainStResearch

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Mainstreet - Toronto's Democracy