Managing shared climate change risks

in a transboundary river basin,

The Nile Basin Initiative experience(second part, 9th November 2011, Marrakech)

Abdulkarim H Seid

NBI Secretariat

• A joint institution of the 10 Nile Basin States

• Launched on 22 February 1999

• Directed by Nile Council of Ministers (Nile-COM)

The Nile Basin Initiative

Historical variability of average discharge

3

- High seasonal and inter-annual variability of discharge

- Climate change more variability more extremes

- Storage infrastructure needed for any meaningful utilization of water resources

Scenarios of sub-basin runoff under climate change

4

Wide difference in how the future runoff evolves under climate change- High uncertainty for Tekezze-Atbara, Bahr el Jebel, - Potentially more runoff for Tekezze- Atbara, Bahr el Jebel, - Relatively less uncertainty on projection of runoff

NBI response to climate change challenges

5

Transboundary policies

• The NB Sustainability Framework (NBSF)• Climate Change Strategy• Sub-basin level guidelines for

investment projects• Wetland Strategy • Environmental and Social Policy and

guidelines• The NBI Environmental Flow

Management Strategy• Dam safety framework

Institutions

• Provide platform for TB cooperation • Training and capacity building• Data and Information exchange• Partnership building (IWMI, GWP,

UNEP,LVBC)

Information

• Joint Analytic tools (NB DSS)• Water demand & supply projection • Regional knowledgebase• Basin monitoring:

Evapotranspiration, enhancing basins monitoring infrastructure)

• State of the Basin Report (every 5 years)

• Flood forecasting and warning communication

Infrastructure

• Joint, multi-sector investment planning (sub-basin level): hydropower, irrigation, watershed management

• Climate proofing guides - investments • Capacity building (in climate finance)

Disaster preparedness: strengthening member countries capacity to mitigate flood risks

EN FloodMonitoring Program pilot Areas

1. Lake Tana flood forecasting system (Ethiopia)

2. Blue and Main Nile flood forecasting (Ethiopia

and Sudan)

3. Baro-Akobo-Sobat (BAS) flood forecasting

(Ethiopia and South Sudan)

4. Wadi Al Arish flash flood mapping (Egypt)

Mai

n N

ile

Abay-Blue Nile

Baro-A

kobo-Sobat-White N

ile

Tekeze-Setit-Atbara

40°0'0"E

40°0'0"E

30°0'0"E

30°0'0"E

20°0'0"E

20°0'0"E

30°0

'0"N

30°0

'0"N

20°0

'0"N

20°0

'0"N

10°0

'0"N

10°0

'0"N

0°0'

0"

0°0'

0"

2

4

1

33

Delineation of flood prone areas and setting flood marks (GYR colors)

Main activities: flood forecasting, warning communication and community preparedness support

7

Ethiopia – Sudan Interconnection- Inaugurated in 2013- 100 – 200 MW being traded

Climate change adaption at regional level in the Nile Basin. Examples: Investment in green energy

Increased integration of economies Reduced thermal power costs (Sudan) Reduced GHG from reduced

fossile fuel usage (Sudan) CC mitigation

Increased export revenue (Ethiopia)

Rusumo falls HEP project - Joint project (Burundi,

Rwanda, Tanzania)- Financing secured

Increased integration of economies of Burundi, Rwanda and Tanzania

Increase electricity access to over 1,100,000 people

Clean energy reduction of GHG emission

Improved joint Basin monitoring

Regional hydromet system for the Nile Basin - Design completed; first regional hydro-

meteorological monitoring system for the Nile Basin

- Improved CC adaptation – one of the objectives of the system

- Real-time data sharing system – part of the design

- First phase implementation to start in 2017

Climate change adaption at regional level in the Nile BasinExamples

after

after

Livelihood centered integrated watershed management

Changes observed

Improved joint river basin planning

Multi-Sector Investment Plans- Multi-country sub-basin wide

water resources plan for NEL- Multi-country, multi-sector

investment strategy for Eastern Nile

Basin/sub-basin as hydrologic unit Optimize resource use taking comparative advantages of countries

Leverage regional cooperation for better adaptation to climate change

Scenario Analysis from 1955 to 2014

Gilo

Alwero

Akobo

pibor

Sudan

EGYPT

KENYA

TANZANIA

BURUNDI

Ethiopia

South Sudan

DRC

RWANDA

Baro Akobo Sobat Sub-Basin

Lake Edward Lake Albert3.41

Lake Albert Sub-Basin

Lake

Tana

Sudd Swam

36.03

40.26

17.893.53

8.94

58.327.9

0.290.05

5.063.30

Machar

2.80

4.64

7.43

3.66

11.76

3.04

3.15

3.37

1.85

0.02

9.194.24

0.010.01

5.334.08

Blue Nile Sub-Basin

KageraNyabarongo

Ruvubu

9.38

0.010.00

0.06

3.91

1.45 7.29

2.1

2.09

Rubare

Semliki

39.41

Mongalla Station

1.81

Victori Nile Sub-Basin

Lake Kyoga

7.935.82

Soroti & Malaba

1.20

0.02

44.97

Yei & Goi

Bahir El Jabel

4.14

1.5

Lake Victoria

Mara & LV East

Cathments

Rubana &

MbalagetiIsanga, Simiyu,

Mamwe & Southern LV Cathments

0.91

0.04

0.01

Nzoia , Yala & Sio4.34

0.16

Nyando,Sondu_Miriu & Awach1.32

0.03

Migori-Kuja

31.73

Lake Victoria Sub-Basin

2.8

0.8

30.47Sobat Baro

12.58White Nile at Malakal

0.85

Bahir El Gezal

0.28

26.23

0.87

0.24 2.050.00

0.6

Gebel Aulia43.97

Blue Nile

at Khartoum

Sennar Dam

39.95

Dindir

3.01

Rehad

1.43

43.04

1.38

2.18

Pumps US Sennar

NW Sennar Rahad I II

Suki

6.61

47.56

Roseires Dam

0.750.06

49.58

Blue Nile At Diem StationBeles

5.83

Dabus

6.58

Didessa

11.43

38.23

0.08

1.19

0.030.04

0.370.24

FInchaa Dam

Amerti Dam

0.29

1.63

19.01

3.33

23.96

Blue Nile

at Kessie

12.53

1.00

2.26

5.21

Lake Tana Tributaries

Merowie Dam1.51

0.03

Blue Nile

Aswan Dam

12.40.00

79.87Nile at Dongola

66.13

5.79

Isna Barrage

Nagaa Hammadi

Barrage

Assute

Barrage

2.41

2.68

5.57

Aswan-Isna Irrigation

Esna-NagaaHammadi

Irrigation

NagaaHammadi-Assute

Irrigation

Assute-Cairo

Irrigation59.16

10.4 East Delta

Irrigations

15.7West Delta

Irrigations

2.88Fayyum

Irrigation

15.55

0.200.02

Tekeze

Dam8.98

Tekeze

0.200.00

Kashim el

Girba

14.37

84.0412.52 Atbara

72.3814.24

Tekeze-Atbara Basin

00.0

1000

1000

0.0

Flow indicators BCM

Selcted Location

Evaporation/Precipitaion

Hydropower

Demand Node

Lake/Wetlands

Reservoir

Legend

GebaTams

Birbir

Gezira

5.36

Ruizi, Katonga&

LV West & North Cathments

0.75

1.01

73.33

1.53

12.72

WN Pump Schemes

Kenana Sugar

Asalaya Sugar

0.11

102115.

14.64.44

0.46

0.68

0.24

0.13

61.21

3.41

8.77

6.23 Greater Cairo

M&I

2.99Uppet Egypt

M&I

Setit

Upper Atbara

0.43

2.77

0.89

1.64

0.63

80.76

0.06

0.15

0.87

0.250.520.66

New Halfa

Jointly developed analytic tools for exploring climate change adaptation options in a regional (TB) context