25
OCP FULL YEAR AND 4Q 2016 EARNINGS CONFERENCE CALL PRESENTATION MARCH 23 RD 2017 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without OCP’s specific permission is strictly prohibited

MARCH 23 2017 · Feeds NP-S NPK Micronutrients Water Soluble Fertilizers CONTINUOUS GROWTH IN SPECIALTY PRODUCTS WITH A STRONG FOCUS ON VALUE CREATION FOR FARMERS 14 0 140 393 796

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Page 1: MARCH 23 2017 · Feeds NP-S NPK Micronutrients Water Soluble Fertilizers CONTINUOUS GROWTH IN SPECIALTY PRODUCTS WITH A STRONG FOCUS ON VALUE CREATION FOR FARMERS 14 0 140 393 796

OCP FULL YEAR AND 4Q 2016 EARNINGS CONFERENCE CALL

PRESENTATION

MARCH 23RD 2017

CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARYAny use of this material without OCP’s specific permission is strictly prohibited

Page 2: MARCH 23 2017 · Feeds NP-S NPK Micronutrients Water Soluble Fertilizers CONTINUOUS GROWTH IN SPECIALTY PRODUCTS WITH A STRONG FOCUS ON VALUE CREATION FOR FARMERS 14 0 140 393 796

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT

This presentation has been prepared by OCP S.A. (“OCP”) strictly for discussion purposes, and contains certain statements that are, or may be

deemed to be, “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions set forth in the U.S. Private Securities Litigation

Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, liabilities, strategic, industrial, commercial plans and expected future financial

and operating results such as revenue growth and earnings. They are based on the current beliefs, expectations and assumptions of OCP’s

management as of the date on which they are made in connection with past and/or future financial results, and are subject to significant

uncertainties and risks, which OCP shall not be held liable for. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, risks and uncertainties

arising from the future success of current and strategic plans and future financial and operating results and reserves; changes in such plans and

results; any difficulty that OCP may experience with the realization of benefits and anticipated levels of capital expenditures for the second half of

year 2014 and beyond; the current and future volatility in the credit markets and future market conditions; OCP’s strategy in connection with

customer retention, growth, product development and market position; industry trends; volatility in commodity prices; changes in foreign currency,

interest and exchange rates; international trade risks; changes in government policy and developments in judicial or administrative proceedings in

jurisdictions which OCP is subject to; changes in environmental and other governmental regulation, including regulatory investigations and

proceedings; any natural events such as severe weather, fires, floods and earthquakes or man-made or other disruptions of OCP’s operating

systems, structures or equipment; the effectiveness of OCP’s processes for managing its strategic priorities; and OCP’s belief that it has sufficient

cash and liquidity and/or available debt capacity to fund future financial operations and strategic business investments. Actual results may differ

from those set forth in the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation, and OCP undertakes no obligation to publicly update any of its

forward-looking statements, whether written or oral, that may be made from time to time, whether as a result of new information, future

developments or otherwise.

This presentation includes OCP’s financial statements which are produced in Moroccan Dirhams (the local currency) and presented in IFRS. For ease

of presentation, financial information included in this presentation is translated into U.S. Dollars, and these translated figures have not been

audited. For the purpose of such translated figures, OCP used the following exchange rate table, which sets forth the year average and year-end

Dirham/U.S. Dollar exchange rates for the following periods:

Dec 2016 Dec 2015

Period End 10,0825 9,9008

Average 9,8074 9,7627

Page 3: MARCH 23 2017 · Feeds NP-S NPK Micronutrients Water Soluble Fertilizers CONTINUOUS GROWTH IN SPECIALTY PRODUCTS WITH A STRONG FOCUS ON VALUE CREATION FOR FARMERS 14 0 140 393 796

2016 - 2017: A KEY MILESTONE IN OCP STRATEGY WITH THE COMPLETION

OF PHASE 1 OF OUR CAPEX PLAN

2

12 MT Fertilizers capacity (Twice as large as second exporter)

18 MT Rock export capacity (Three times as large as second exporter)

Major infrastructure built for ~20 MT fertilizer export capacity

Capacity leadership

Rock production cost reduced from $34/T to less than $20/T(1)

(from 2013 to 2017 E)

14 MT additional rock capacity at optimized costs (incl. Mine, beneficiation and Pipeline)

Cost leadership

Strong customization and product flexibility

Between DAP/NPK/NPS/TSP…

Leadership position on all P segments and in all geographies• 1/3 of revenue in the Americas• 1/3 in Asia• 1/3 in Europe and Africa

Flexibility

(1) Delivered to the Jorf Lasfar plant

1

2 3

Page 4: MARCH 23 2017 · Feeds NP-S NPK Micronutrients Water Soluble Fertilizers CONTINUOUS GROWTH IN SPECIALTY PRODUCTS WITH A STRONG FOCUS ON VALUE CREATION FOR FARMERS 14 0 140 393 796

ExportCapacity

In MT MT eq DAP

200726 MT

201738 MT

4

8

12

2017Additional capacity

2007

x3

THE COMPLETION OF PHASE I TRIPLES OCP’S FERTILIZER CAPACITY WHILE

REDUCING PRODUCTION COSTS

MT eq DAPTransportationRock capacity Fertilizer capacity Port Capacity

200730 MT

201750 MT

3

3014

44

2007 2017Additional capacity

26

18

Processing @ 100% capacity

Page 5: MARCH 23 2017 · Feeds NP-S NPK Micronutrients Water Soluble Fertilizers CONTINUOUS GROWTH IN SPECIALTY PRODUCTS WITH A STRONG FOCUS ON VALUE CREATION FOR FARMERS 14 0 140 393 796

- 5 - PRÉSENTATION - CONSEIL D’ADMINISTRATION D’OCP S.A DU 14 MARS 2017

Demand expected to grow by 25 to 27 MT(1) between 2017 and 2027 …

… and OCP plans to capture half of it through its modular investment program

Incremental demand between 2017 and 2027

OCP capacity growth between 2017 and 2027

202720202017

Revamping, Operational

Excellence and Marginal

Investments(~3MT)

Phase 2 (up to 10 MT)

OCP’S CAPACITY EXPANSION IS UNDERPINNED BY STRONG LONG-TERM

FUNDAMENTALS

4

~25 to 27 MT

50%

(1) Million metric tons, includes DAP, MAP, TSP, NPS, NPKs

12 MT

15 MT

~12 to 14 MT

Page 6: MARCH 23 2017 · Feeds NP-S NPK Micronutrients Water Soluble Fertilizers CONTINUOUS GROWTH IN SPECIALTY PRODUCTS WITH A STRONG FOCUS ON VALUE CREATION FOR FARMERS 14 0 140 393 796

THE FERTILIZER MARKET IS INCREASINGLY MIGRATING TO TAILOR-MADE PRODUCTS ADAPTED TO THE NEEDS OF SOILS, CROPS AND METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS

Urea

DAP/MAP

SSP/TSP

NPK

MOP

NH3

Gas

Rock P

Potash

Soy2 20 18

0 20 20

Wheat 4 20 20

Sugar Cane

20 0 30

18 0 27

5 25 25

Blending / Customization

N P KEnd use

From Commodity… … to customized fertilizers

1 Non-exhaustive list

5

Corn 8 20 20

Coffee20 5 20

25 0 25

Cotton4 20 20

20 0 20

Page 7: MARCH 23 2017 · Feeds NP-S NPK Micronutrients Water Soluble Fertilizers CONTINUOUS GROWTH IN SPECIALTY PRODUCTS WITH A STRONG FOCUS ON VALUE CREATION FOR FARMERS 14 0 140 393 796

MinePhosphoric Acid

Granulation & Blending

« Order Books »Product Customization

ACP 1

ACP 2

DAP

MAP

TSP

NPK

N P K S

18 46 0 -

20 20 0 -

10 20 10 -

12 24 12 -

19 38 0 7

14 18 18 6

14 23 14 5

15 15 15 6

… … … …

ACP n

APP

DAP

Z, B …

-

-

-

-

-

6

5

6

MAP

Rock Export

Ammonia & PotashSulfur

Acid Export

ROCK-P

K01

K40

BG4

YCC

PB

Other specialtyproducts

DAP

MAP

« Feeds » and Technical use

OCP’S FLEXIBILITY ALLOWS THE PRODUCTION OF A WIDE RANGE OF CUSTOMIZED PRODUCTS ACCORDING TO AN “ORDER BOOK” LOGIC

6

Page 8: MARCH 23 2017 · Feeds NP-S NPK Micronutrients Water Soluble Fertilizers CONTINUOUS GROWTH IN SPECIALTY PRODUCTS WITH A STRONG FOCUS ON VALUE CREATION FOR FARMERS 14 0 140 393 796

- 8 - PRÉSENTATION - CONSEIL D’ADMINISTRATION D’OCP S.A DU 14 MARS 2017

Exponential growth of OCP in

Africa, with more tailor-

made products

OCP export volumes to Africa (KT)

446

1,652

x10

X4

201620122007

50

TSPMAPDAPNPSNPK

IN AFRICA, OCP SUCCESSFULLY DRIVES CUSTOMIZED PRODUCT VOLUMES

7

Page 9: MARCH 23 2017 · Feeds NP-S NPK Micronutrients Water Soluble Fertilizers CONTINUOUS GROWTH IN SPECIALTY PRODUCTS WITH A STRONG FOCUS ON VALUE CREATION FOR FARMERS 14 0 140 393 796

1MARKET OVERVIEW & PERFORMANCE

9

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2016 MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

9

20%Reduction in Chinese exports in 2016

+3%Demand growth in 2016

Phosphate industry entered a down cycle in 2016

Producers’ margin suggest the industry reached bottom in 2016

Market fundamentals were strong

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Global yearly DAP price evolution ($/T)

Source: CRU, IFA

OCP DAP Price ($/T)

Actual 2014 Actual 2015 Actual 2016

OCP DAP Price ($/T)

475 476 345

Page 11: MARCH 23 2017 · Feeds NP-S NPK Micronutrients Water Soluble Fertilizers CONTINUOUS GROWTH IN SPECIALTY PRODUCTS WITH A STRONG FOCUS ON VALUE CREATION FOR FARMERS 14 0 140 393 796

PHOSPHATE INDUSTRY WAS LAST TO ENTER THE DOWN CYCLE… AND

IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST OUT

10

Phosphate resilience vs. other nutrients

Source: CRU, P-value is equivalent to the Commercial Gross Margin (CGM) = DAP Fob Morocco prices minus Raw material costs (Sulphur and Ammonia).

Supply & Demand Balance for 2016-2020

Source: IFA

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Nitrogen Phosphoric Acid Potassium

Additional Demand Additional Supply

In MT Nutrient

100

111

117

85

20

40

60

80

100

120

2013 2014 2015 2016

P-value Urea Potash +2%

+1.7%

+2.4%

+2.5%

+3.2%

+2.1%

Supply p.a

Demand p.a

Nutrient values (base 100 in Jan 2014)

Page 12: MARCH 23 2017 · Feeds NP-S NPK Micronutrients Water Soluble Fertilizers CONTINUOUS GROWTH IN SPECIALTY PRODUCTS WITH A STRONG FOCUS ON VALUE CREATION FOR FARMERS 14 0 140 393 796

LOWER CHINESE EXPORTS IN 2016 REFLECTS A COMPETITIVENESS

ISSUE

11

5 0000 10 000 15 000

300 $ / T

Phosphate fertilizer exports (MT)

10.7

8.8

2015 2016

Chinese DAP producers’ cost curve

Source CRU

… while prices reached the low 300sChina exports dropped by 20%...

-1.9 MT

Page 13: MARCH 23 2017 · Feeds NP-S NPK Micronutrients Water Soluble Fertilizers CONTINUOUS GROWTH IN SPECIALTY PRODUCTS WITH A STRONG FOCUS ON VALUE CREATION FOR FARMERS 14 0 140 393 796

HIGHER CONSUMPTION ACROSS KEY MAJOR IMPORT MARKETS

13

Sources: GTIS, OCP, ANDA.

Sub-saharan Africa phosphate fertilizer imports in MT

Phosphate fertilizer deliveries in MT

Phosphate fertilizer consumption in MT P2O5

Phosphates importsin MT

4.4

5.0

Deliveries2015 2016

16.917.5

2015/16 2016/17

2.4

2.8

Deliveries2015 2016

0.7

1.2

Deliveries2015 2016

Significant growthin Africa

Higher consumption in India

Recovery in Braziliandeliveries

Higher consumptionin Argentina

+16%

+4%

+13% +74%

Page 14: MARCH 23 2017 · Feeds NP-S NPK Micronutrients Water Soluble Fertilizers CONTINUOUS GROWTH IN SPECIALTY PRODUCTS WITH A STRONG FOCUS ON VALUE CREATION FOR FARMERS 14 0 140 393 796

RECORD FERTILIZER EXPORTS WITH FOCUS ON KEY GROWTH MARKETS:

AFRICA & LATIN AMERICA

13Source: OCP

1. New Products and DAP/MAP/TSP refer to export sales

OCP Group fertilizer export (in MT)

1.5

2.32.7

3.84.4

4.1 4.0

3.2

4.9

0.30.7

1.1

1.6

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

NewProducts1

1.5

2.3

3.8

4.4

4.7

Standard productsDAP/MAP/TSP1

2.7

4.54.3

2013 2014 2015 2016

0.6

0.3

1.0

6.5

1.7

Breakdown of the increase in fertilizer exports for 2016 (+2.2 MT) : +1.2 MT in North and

Latin America, +0.7 MT in Africa and +0.3 MT in Europe and Asia

Fertilizer exports to Sub-Saharan Africa

Page 15: MARCH 23 2017 · Feeds NP-S NPK Micronutrients Water Soluble Fertilizers CONTINUOUS GROWTH IN SPECIALTY PRODUCTS WITH A STRONG FOCUS ON VALUE CREATION FOR FARMERS 14 0 140 393 796

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E

Feeds NP-S NPK Micronutrients Water Soluble Fertilizers

CONTINUOUS GROWTH IN SPECIALTY PRODUCTS WITH A STRONG FOCUS

ON VALUE CREATION FOR FARMERS

14

0140

393

796

Take-off

Diversification ~ x12

Sources: OCP, including domestic market.

Share in FOB Fert. revenue

0%

2% 5% 14% 24%

1 194

1 678

23%

Recent agreement with Shell will allow OCP to offer farmers an even wider range

of enriched fertilizers

OCP sales of new products (KT product)

Page 16: MARCH 23 2017 · Feeds NP-S NPK Micronutrients Water Soluble Fertilizers CONTINUOUS GROWTH IN SPECIALTY PRODUCTS WITH A STRONG FOCUS ON VALUE CREATION FOR FARMERS 14 0 140 393 796

DECREASE IN DAP PRICES WAS PARTLY OFFSET BY LOWER SULFUR AND

AMMONIA PRICES

15

Sources: CRU.

FOB Middle East Average Price Index ($/T)

383

301

2015 2016

FOB Yuzhny Average Price Index ($/T)

146

103

2015 2016

Sulfur Ammonia

-30% -22%

Page 17: MARCH 23 2017 · Feeds NP-S NPK Micronutrients Water Soluble Fertilizers CONTINUOUS GROWTH IN SPECIALTY PRODUCTS WITH A STRONG FOCUS ON VALUE CREATION FOR FARMERS 14 0 140 393 796

MARKET DYNAMICS FOR THE YEAR AHEAD

Strong demand outlook

Market remains oversupplied

Price levels will depend on

Chinese export availability and

competitiveness

Stable crop fundamental outlook: Crop prices are expected

to remain stable vs. 2016 (Corn above 3.8$/bu and

Soybean above 10$/bu)

Low input prices should support continuous consumption

growth in key consuming regions (mainly Latin America and

Africa)

Dem

an

d

Market volatility to be supply driven

Additional competitive capacities expected in 2017

(OCP in Q2 and Saudi Arabia in Q4)

Chinese exports availability from Q2 will be the key defining

factor in global supply/demand balance

Su

pp

lyFeed

sto

ck

Fundamentally lower medium & long term outlook given

recent and ongoing additional capacities (in UAE for S,

Russia, US and Saudi Arabia for Ammonia)

Short term drivers could create some volatility (mainly in

Ammonia)

16

Page 18: MARCH 23 2017 · Feeds NP-S NPK Micronutrients Water Soluble Fertilizers CONTINUOUS GROWTH IN SPECIALTY PRODUCTS WITH A STRONG FOCUS ON VALUE CREATION FOR FARMERS 14 0 140 393 796

1FINANCIAL OVERVIEW

18

Page 19: MARCH 23 2017 · Feeds NP-S NPK Micronutrients Water Soluble Fertilizers CONTINUOUS GROWTH IN SPECIALTY PRODUCTS WITH A STRONG FOCUS ON VALUE CREATION FOR FARMERS 14 0 140 393 796

18

OCP’S FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

411294

479

312

541

334

377

363

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2016

1,303

2015

1,809

-28%

1,137 1,056

1,326 1,164

1,3551,058

1,073

1,053

-11%

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2016

4,331

2015

37% 30%EBITDA Margin

In US$m In US$m

1,425

846

-41%

20162015

In US$m

1,266 1,240

-2%

20162015

-4%

In US$m

Revenues EBITDA

EBIT Adjusted Cash Flow from Operating Activities1

1. Adjusted for the transfer of OCP’s internal pension fund

4,891

Page 20: MARCH 23 2017 · Feeds NP-S NPK Micronutrients Water Soluble Fertilizers CONTINUOUS GROWTH IN SPECIALTY PRODUCTS WITH A STRONG FOCUS ON VALUE CREATION FOR FARMERS 14 0 140 393 796

Full year 2016

QUARTERLY AND FULL YEAR REVENUE BREAKDOWN

89

-1

-70

325-171

114

381535

288

186

315 218

Acid

Rock

Other

-2%

Fertilizers

4Q 2016

1,053

25

-32

4Q 2015

1,073

In US$m

426

-134

-257

958-768

-31

395

-11%

Rock

Other

FY 2016

4,331

1,986

1,164

Acid

1,314

OthersAcid Prices

-233

AcidVolumes

Rock Volumes

FY 2015

4,891

1,986

1,164

1,314

In US$m

19

Q4 2016 Revenues by segment

Fertilizers

-96

Rock Prices

Fert. Volumes

Fert. Prices

923

836

2,177

21%

19%

50%

9%

Rock Acid Fertilizers Other

27%

24%

40%

9%

Rock Acid Fertilizers Other

2016

2015

OthersAcid Prices

AcidVolumes

Rock Volumes

Rock Prices

Fert. Volumes

Fert. Prices

-96

Page 21: MARCH 23 2017 · Feeds NP-S NPK Micronutrients Water Soluble Fertilizers CONTINUOUS GROWTH IN SPECIALTY PRODUCTS WITH A STRONG FOCUS ON VALUE CREATION FOR FARMERS 14 0 140 393 796

EBITDA EVOLUTION COMPARED TO PREVIOUS YEAR

-205

-4

FY 2015

1,809

Other

12

-154

FY 2016

1,303

Other Revenues

-45249

Other purchases consumed

728

48

Sulfur AmmoniaRevenue: volume impact

Production held as

inventory

20

In US$m

Full year 2016

-1,257

-31

Personnel expenses

Revenues: price

impact

-28%

Page 22: MARCH 23 2017 · Feeds NP-S NPK Micronutrients Water Soluble Fertilizers CONTINUOUS GROWTH IN SPECIALTY PRODUCTS WITH A STRONG FOCUS ON VALUE CREATION FOR FARMERS 14 0 140 393 796

FOCUS ON LIQUIDITY AS OF DECEMBER 2016 AND LEVERAGE

21

Debt Profile Snapshot¹ ²Liquidity Snapshot and Debt Maturity

Schedule Net Financial Debt

Source: OCP1 As at 31 December 2016, “Other” includes current financial debts, bank overdraft and accrued interests2 USD/MAD exchange rates as follows: 31/12/2016 10.1130

37%

1%

3%8%

48%

1%1%

Bank loans

Sovereign guaranteed bank loans

domectic bond

domectic Hybrid bond

international bond

Finance lease liabilities

other

US$bn

0,5 0,5 0,4 0,3

0,2 0,1 0,1 0,2

0,2

2,9

0,5

1,1

0,5

0,4

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 >2023

Undrawn credit lineCurrent financial assetsCash and cash equivalentsDomestic Hybrid bondInternational bondDomestic bondBank Debt amortization

FY 2015 FY 2016

US$m

3,5603,771

Net Financial debt / EBITDA

2.89x1.97x

Page 23: MARCH 23 2017 · Feeds NP-S NPK Micronutrients Water Soluble Fertilizers CONTINUOUS GROWTH IN SPECIALTY PRODUCTS WITH A STRONG FOCUS ON VALUE CREATION FOR FARMERS 14 0 140 393 796

CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

22

Capital Expenditure

In US$m

2015 2016

Maintenance Capex Industrial Development Capex

The second Integrated Fertilizer unit in

Jorf (JFC-2) with 1 Mt fertilizer capacity

became operational in July 2016,

following JFC-1 launch in 2015

Operations started at the downstream

drying facilities (for the phosphate rock

transported through the slurry pipeline)

at the Jorf Lasfar platform

The first unit of the desalination plant in

Jorf was launched during the first half of

2016

245 218

1,216 1,134

1,461

1,352

Page 24: MARCH 23 2017 · Feeds NP-S NPK Micronutrients Water Soluble Fertilizers CONTINUOUS GROWTH IN SPECIALTY PRODUCTS WITH A STRONG FOCUS ON VALUE CREATION FOR FARMERS 14 0 140 393 796

1SUMMARY

24

Page 25: MARCH 23 2017 · Feeds NP-S NPK Micronutrients Water Soluble Fertilizers CONTINUOUS GROWTH IN SPECIALTY PRODUCTS WITH A STRONG FOCUS ON VALUE CREATION FOR FARMERS 14 0 140 393 796

Leading phosphate player with largest export capacity on all segments• Completed investments in phase I of the capex plan to capture

a strong share of future demand

Global market share of ~ 30% with a balanced footprint across all key geographies• Leading presence on high growth markets, including Africa• Commercial flexibility stemming from portfolio diversification

through new business lines and products

Solid profitability across the cycle• EBITDA margin maintained above 30% at low point in cycle• Further cost reductions targeted

Key Highlights

OCP’S KEY STRENGTHS WILL ENABLE THE GROUP TO STAY AHEAD OF THE

MARKET

Strong balance sheet to support the strategy across cycles• Commitment to Investment Grade credit rating

24

1

2

3

4