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OCP FULL YEAR AND 4Q 2016 EARNINGS CONFERENCE CALL
PRESENTATION
MARCH 23RD 2017
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARYAny use of this material without OCP’s specific permission is strictly prohibited
SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT
This presentation has been prepared by OCP S.A. (“OCP”) strictly for discussion purposes, and contains certain statements that are, or may be
deemed to be, “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions set forth in the U.S. Private Securities Litigation
Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, liabilities, strategic, industrial, commercial plans and expected future financial
and operating results such as revenue growth and earnings. They are based on the current beliefs, expectations and assumptions of OCP’s
management as of the date on which they are made in connection with past and/or future financial results, and are subject to significant
uncertainties and risks, which OCP shall not be held liable for. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, risks and uncertainties
arising from the future success of current and strategic plans and future financial and operating results and reserves; changes in such plans and
results; any difficulty that OCP may experience with the realization of benefits and anticipated levels of capital expenditures for the second half of
year 2014 and beyond; the current and future volatility in the credit markets and future market conditions; OCP’s strategy in connection with
customer retention, growth, product development and market position; industry trends; volatility in commodity prices; changes in foreign currency,
interest and exchange rates; international trade risks; changes in government policy and developments in judicial or administrative proceedings in
jurisdictions which OCP is subject to; changes in environmental and other governmental regulation, including regulatory investigations and
proceedings; any natural events such as severe weather, fires, floods and earthquakes or man-made or other disruptions of OCP’s operating
systems, structures or equipment; the effectiveness of OCP’s processes for managing its strategic priorities; and OCP’s belief that it has sufficient
cash and liquidity and/or available debt capacity to fund future financial operations and strategic business investments. Actual results may differ
from those set forth in the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation, and OCP undertakes no obligation to publicly update any of its
forward-looking statements, whether written or oral, that may be made from time to time, whether as a result of new information, future
developments or otherwise.
This presentation includes OCP’s financial statements which are produced in Moroccan Dirhams (the local currency) and presented in IFRS. For ease
of presentation, financial information included in this presentation is translated into U.S. Dollars, and these translated figures have not been
audited. For the purpose of such translated figures, OCP used the following exchange rate table, which sets forth the year average and year-end
Dirham/U.S. Dollar exchange rates for the following periods:
Dec 2016 Dec 2015
Period End 10,0825 9,9008
Average 9,8074 9,7627
2016 - 2017: A KEY MILESTONE IN OCP STRATEGY WITH THE COMPLETION
OF PHASE 1 OF OUR CAPEX PLAN
2
12 MT Fertilizers capacity (Twice as large as second exporter)
18 MT Rock export capacity (Three times as large as second exporter)
Major infrastructure built for ~20 MT fertilizer export capacity
Capacity leadership
Rock production cost reduced from $34/T to less than $20/T(1)
(from 2013 to 2017 E)
14 MT additional rock capacity at optimized costs (incl. Mine, beneficiation and Pipeline)
Cost leadership
Strong customization and product flexibility
Between DAP/NPK/NPS/TSP…
Leadership position on all P segments and in all geographies• 1/3 of revenue in the Americas• 1/3 in Asia• 1/3 in Europe and Africa
Flexibility
(1) Delivered to the Jorf Lasfar plant
1
2 3
ExportCapacity
In MT MT eq DAP
200726 MT
201738 MT
4
8
12
2017Additional capacity
2007
x3
THE COMPLETION OF PHASE I TRIPLES OCP’S FERTILIZER CAPACITY WHILE
REDUCING PRODUCTION COSTS
MT eq DAPTransportationRock capacity Fertilizer capacity Port Capacity
200730 MT
201750 MT
3
3014
44
2007 2017Additional capacity
26
18
Processing @ 100% capacity
- 5 - PRÉSENTATION - CONSEIL D’ADMINISTRATION D’OCP S.A DU 14 MARS 2017
Demand expected to grow by 25 to 27 MT(1) between 2017 and 2027 …
… and OCP plans to capture half of it through its modular investment program
Incremental demand between 2017 and 2027
OCP capacity growth between 2017 and 2027
202720202017
Revamping, Operational
Excellence and Marginal
Investments(~3MT)
Phase 2 (up to 10 MT)
OCP’S CAPACITY EXPANSION IS UNDERPINNED BY STRONG LONG-TERM
FUNDAMENTALS
4
~25 to 27 MT
50%
(1) Million metric tons, includes DAP, MAP, TSP, NPS, NPKs
12 MT
15 MT
~12 to 14 MT
THE FERTILIZER MARKET IS INCREASINGLY MIGRATING TO TAILOR-MADE PRODUCTS ADAPTED TO THE NEEDS OF SOILS, CROPS AND METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
Urea
DAP/MAP
SSP/TSP
NPK
MOP
NH3
Gas
Rock P
Potash
Soy2 20 18
0 20 20
Wheat 4 20 20
Sugar Cane
20 0 30
18 0 27
5 25 25
Blending / Customization
N P KEnd use
From Commodity… … to customized fertilizers
1 Non-exhaustive list
5
Corn 8 20 20
Coffee20 5 20
25 0 25
Cotton4 20 20
20 0 20
MinePhosphoric Acid
Granulation & Blending
« Order Books »Product Customization
ACP 1
ACP 2
DAP
MAP
TSP
NPK
N P K S
18 46 0 -
20 20 0 -
10 20 10 -
12 24 12 -
19 38 0 7
14 18 18 6
14 23 14 5
15 15 15 6
… … … …
ACP n
…
APP
DAP
Z, B …
-
-
-
-
-
6
5
6
…
MAP
Rock Export
Ammonia & PotashSulfur
Acid Export
ROCK-P
K01
…
K40
BG4
YCC
PB
…
Other specialtyproducts
DAP
…
MAP
…
…
…
« Feeds » and Technical use
OCP’S FLEXIBILITY ALLOWS THE PRODUCTION OF A WIDE RANGE OF CUSTOMIZED PRODUCTS ACCORDING TO AN “ORDER BOOK” LOGIC
6
- 8 - PRÉSENTATION - CONSEIL D’ADMINISTRATION D’OCP S.A DU 14 MARS 2017
Exponential growth of OCP in
Africa, with more tailor-
made products
OCP export volumes to Africa (KT)
446
1,652
x10
X4
201620122007
50
TSPMAPDAPNPSNPK
IN AFRICA, OCP SUCCESSFULLY DRIVES CUSTOMIZED PRODUCT VOLUMES
7
1MARKET OVERVIEW & PERFORMANCE
9
2016 MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
9
20%Reduction in Chinese exports in 2016
+3%Demand growth in 2016
Phosphate industry entered a down cycle in 2016
Producers’ margin suggest the industry reached bottom in 2016
Market fundamentals were strong
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Global yearly DAP price evolution ($/T)
Source: CRU, IFA
OCP DAP Price ($/T)
Actual 2014 Actual 2015 Actual 2016
OCP DAP Price ($/T)
475 476 345
PHOSPHATE INDUSTRY WAS LAST TO ENTER THE DOWN CYCLE… AND
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST OUT
10
Phosphate resilience vs. other nutrients
Source: CRU, P-value is equivalent to the Commercial Gross Margin (CGM) = DAP Fob Morocco prices minus Raw material costs (Sulphur and Ammonia).
Supply & Demand Balance for 2016-2020
Source: IFA
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Nitrogen Phosphoric Acid Potassium
Additional Demand Additional Supply
In MT Nutrient
100
111
117
85
20
40
60
80
100
120
2013 2014 2015 2016
P-value Urea Potash +2%
+1.7%
+2.4%
+2.5%
+3.2%
+2.1%
Supply p.a
Demand p.a
Nutrient values (base 100 in Jan 2014)
LOWER CHINESE EXPORTS IN 2016 REFLECTS A COMPETITIVENESS
ISSUE
11
5 0000 10 000 15 000
300 $ / T
Phosphate fertilizer exports (MT)
10.7
8.8
2015 2016
Chinese DAP producers’ cost curve
Source CRU
… while prices reached the low 300sChina exports dropped by 20%...
-1.9 MT
HIGHER CONSUMPTION ACROSS KEY MAJOR IMPORT MARKETS
13
Sources: GTIS, OCP, ANDA.
Sub-saharan Africa phosphate fertilizer imports in MT
Phosphate fertilizer deliveries in MT
Phosphate fertilizer consumption in MT P2O5
Phosphates importsin MT
4.4
5.0
Deliveries2015 2016
16.917.5
2015/16 2016/17
2.4
2.8
Deliveries2015 2016
0.7
1.2
Deliveries2015 2016
Significant growthin Africa
Higher consumption in India
Recovery in Braziliandeliveries
Higher consumptionin Argentina
+16%
+4%
+13% +74%
RECORD FERTILIZER EXPORTS WITH FOCUS ON KEY GROWTH MARKETS:
AFRICA & LATIN AMERICA
13Source: OCP
1. New Products and DAP/MAP/TSP refer to export sales
OCP Group fertilizer export (in MT)
1.5
2.32.7
3.84.4
4.1 4.0
3.2
4.9
0.30.7
1.1
1.6
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
NewProducts1
1.5
2.3
3.8
4.4
4.7
Standard productsDAP/MAP/TSP1
2.7
4.54.3
2013 2014 2015 2016
0.6
0.3
1.0
6.5
1.7
Breakdown of the increase in fertilizer exports for 2016 (+2.2 MT) : +1.2 MT in North and
Latin America, +0.7 MT in Africa and +0.3 MT in Europe and Asia
Fertilizer exports to Sub-Saharan Africa
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E
Feeds NP-S NPK Micronutrients Water Soluble Fertilizers
CONTINUOUS GROWTH IN SPECIALTY PRODUCTS WITH A STRONG FOCUS
ON VALUE CREATION FOR FARMERS
14
0140
393
796
Take-off
Diversification ~ x12
Sources: OCP, including domestic market.
Share in FOB Fert. revenue
0%
2% 5% 14% 24%
1 194
1 678
23%
Recent agreement with Shell will allow OCP to offer farmers an even wider range
of enriched fertilizers
OCP sales of new products (KT product)
DECREASE IN DAP PRICES WAS PARTLY OFFSET BY LOWER SULFUR AND
AMMONIA PRICES
15
Sources: CRU.
FOB Middle East Average Price Index ($/T)
383
301
2015 2016
FOB Yuzhny Average Price Index ($/T)
146
103
2015 2016
Sulfur Ammonia
-30% -22%
MARKET DYNAMICS FOR THE YEAR AHEAD
Strong demand outlook
Market remains oversupplied
Price levels will depend on
Chinese export availability and
competitiveness
Stable crop fundamental outlook: Crop prices are expected
to remain stable vs. 2016 (Corn above 3.8$/bu and
Soybean above 10$/bu)
Low input prices should support continuous consumption
growth in key consuming regions (mainly Latin America and
Africa)
Dem
an
d
Market volatility to be supply driven
Additional competitive capacities expected in 2017
(OCP in Q2 and Saudi Arabia in Q4)
Chinese exports availability from Q2 will be the key defining
factor in global supply/demand balance
Su
pp
lyFeed
sto
ck
Fundamentally lower medium & long term outlook given
recent and ongoing additional capacities (in UAE for S,
Russia, US and Saudi Arabia for Ammonia)
Short term drivers could create some volatility (mainly in
Ammonia)
16
1FINANCIAL OVERVIEW
18
18
OCP’S FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
411294
479
312
541
334
377
363
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2016
1,303
2015
1,809
-28%
1,137 1,056
1,326 1,164
1,3551,058
1,073
1,053
-11%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2016
4,331
2015
37% 30%EBITDA Margin
In US$m In US$m
1,425
846
-41%
20162015
In US$m
1,266 1,240
-2%
20162015
-4%
In US$m
Revenues EBITDA
EBIT Adjusted Cash Flow from Operating Activities1
1. Adjusted for the transfer of OCP’s internal pension fund
4,891
Full year 2016
QUARTERLY AND FULL YEAR REVENUE BREAKDOWN
89
-1
-70
325-171
114
381535
288
186
315 218
Acid
Rock
Other
-2%
Fertilizers
4Q 2016
1,053
25
-32
4Q 2015
1,073
In US$m
426
-134
-257
958-768
-31
395
-11%
Rock
Other
FY 2016
4,331
1,986
1,164
Acid
1,314
OthersAcid Prices
-233
AcidVolumes
Rock Volumes
FY 2015
4,891
1,986
1,164
1,314
In US$m
19
Q4 2016 Revenues by segment
Fertilizers
-96
Rock Prices
Fert. Volumes
Fert. Prices
923
836
2,177
21%
19%
50%
9%
Rock Acid Fertilizers Other
27%
24%
40%
9%
Rock Acid Fertilizers Other
2016
2015
OthersAcid Prices
AcidVolumes
Rock Volumes
Rock Prices
Fert. Volumes
Fert. Prices
-96
EBITDA EVOLUTION COMPARED TO PREVIOUS YEAR
-205
-4
FY 2015
1,809
Other
12
-154
FY 2016
1,303
Other Revenues
-45249
Other purchases consumed
728
48
Sulfur AmmoniaRevenue: volume impact
Production held as
inventory
20
In US$m
Full year 2016
-1,257
-31
Personnel expenses
Revenues: price
impact
-28%
FOCUS ON LIQUIDITY AS OF DECEMBER 2016 AND LEVERAGE
21
Debt Profile Snapshot¹ ²Liquidity Snapshot and Debt Maturity
Schedule Net Financial Debt
Source: OCP1 As at 31 December 2016, “Other” includes current financial debts, bank overdraft and accrued interests2 USD/MAD exchange rates as follows: 31/12/2016 10.1130
37%
1%
3%8%
48%
1%1%
Bank loans
Sovereign guaranteed bank loans
domectic bond
domectic Hybrid bond
international bond
Finance lease liabilities
other
US$bn
0,5 0,5 0,4 0,3
0,2 0,1 0,1 0,2
0,2
2,9
0,5
1,1
0,5
0,4
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 >2023
Undrawn credit lineCurrent financial assetsCash and cash equivalentsDomestic Hybrid bondInternational bondDomestic bondBank Debt amortization
FY 2015 FY 2016
US$m
3,5603,771
Net Financial debt / EBITDA
2.89x1.97x
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
22
Capital Expenditure
In US$m
2015 2016
Maintenance Capex Industrial Development Capex
The second Integrated Fertilizer unit in
Jorf (JFC-2) with 1 Mt fertilizer capacity
became operational in July 2016,
following JFC-1 launch in 2015
Operations started at the downstream
drying facilities (for the phosphate rock
transported through the slurry pipeline)
at the Jorf Lasfar platform
The first unit of the desalination plant in
Jorf was launched during the first half of
2016
245 218
1,216 1,134
1,461
1,352
1SUMMARY
24
Leading phosphate player with largest export capacity on all segments• Completed investments in phase I of the capex plan to capture
a strong share of future demand
Global market share of ~ 30% with a balanced footprint across all key geographies• Leading presence on high growth markets, including Africa• Commercial flexibility stemming from portfolio diversification
through new business lines and products
Solid profitability across the cycle• EBITDA margin maintained above 30% at low point in cycle• Further cost reductions targeted
Key Highlights
OCP’S KEY STRENGTHS WILL ENABLE THE GROUP TO STAY AHEAD OF THE
MARKET
Strong balance sheet to support the strategy across cycles• Commitment to Investment Grade credit rating
24
1
2
3
4