Market Pulse-January 2016 (Public)

7/24/2019 Market Pulse-January 2016 (Public)

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MARKET PULSEJanuary 2016

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2/25

Survey Methodology

Monthly online survey of 300+ CA REALTORS

Respondents are asked about their last closedtransaction and business activity in their market area

for the previous month and the last year.

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3/25

MARKET CONDITIONS

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4/25

Floor CallsUp in January

Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Down Flat Up

4

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey


5/25

ListingAppointments/Client Presentations Up

Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in yourmarket area this month was

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Down Flat Up

5



6/25

Open HouseTrafficContinue to Dip, Partly Due to

Seasonality

Q: Compared to last month/year, open house traffic in your market area this month was

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%50%

60%

70%

Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

Down Flat Up

6



7/25

Auctions Up in January

Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of auctions in your market area this month was

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-1

Down Flat Up

7



8/25

All Cash Purchases Up in January

Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of all cash purchases in your market area this month was

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%35%

40%

45%

50%

Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15

Down Flat Up

8



9/25

REALTORSAre Most ConcernedAbout Inventory

9

5.5%

6.0%

8.6%

11%

16%

40%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

Lending & financing

Rising Interest Rates

Slow down in economic growth

Home prices overinflated

Decline in housing affordability

Lack of Inventory

Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?



10/25

REALTORS Remain MostConcernedAbout Inventory

10

Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16

Inventory

Affordability



11/25

REALTORSOptimistic about MarketConditions in 2016

Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Worsen Same Improve

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12/25

Why REALTORS Expect MarketConditions to

Worsen

Decline in inventory

High prices

Higher interest rates

Affordability declining

Q:Why do you expect real estate market conditions to worsen over the next year?

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13/25

LASTTRANSACTION

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14/25

Most PropertiesSelling Below/atAsking Price

Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?

17%

47%

36%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Over Below At

14



15/25

Premium Paid overAsking Price Slightly Higher

Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold over asking price?

12%

9.2%9.8%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Average

15



16/25

% Paid BelowAsking Price Remains at Previous Peak

Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

Jul-

14

Aug-

14

Sep-

14

Oct-

14

Nov-

14

Dec-

14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-

15

Sep-

15

Oct-

15

Nov-

15

Dec-

15

Jan-

16

Average -5.8 -5.6 -5.8 -6.3 -12%-13%-11%-11%-11%-11% -7.0 -11% -9.6 -11%-10%-12%-13%-13%-13%

16



17/25

Market RemainedCompetitive as 2/3 Properties

Received MultipleOffers

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

58%

65%66%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

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18/25

Number ofOffers Declining

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2.5 2.5

2.1

Average

Q: How many offers did your last closed transaction receive?

18



19/25

Fewer than Properties Had Listing Price Reductions

Q: Were there any listing price reductions before escrow opened in your last closed transaction?

31%30%

24%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

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20/25


21/25

Fewer Sellers Becoming Renters

Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter immediately after selling the property?

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

13% 14%

9.5%

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22/25

Share of First-time Buyers Down inJanuaryLong RunAverage: 31%

Q:Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?

36%33%

26%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45% % First-time Buyers Long Run Average

22



23/25

Proportion of International Buyers Rebounded in JanuaryLong RunAverage: 6.1%

Q:Was the buyer an international client (one who was not a citizen or permanent resident of the U.S.)?

4.9%

2.6%

5.8%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

% International Buyers Long Run Average

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24/25

Top 10Counties

Q: In which county do you live?

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December 2015 January 2016

1 Los Angeles Los Angeles

2 San Diego San Diego

3 Riverside Orange

4 San Bernardino Sacramento5 Orange Riverside

6 Ventura Contra Costa

7 Santa Barbara San Bernardino

8 San Francisco San Mateo

9 Sacramento Placer

10 El Dorado Sonoma



25/25

What are REALTORS Saying?

Inventory is the main reason value will be up.

Im concerned with how easy it was for someone to list their

house on Zillow without a REALTOR.

Just remember we are here to serve our clients and you willalways have business.

TRID issues: there are so many glitches and unknowns.

Q: Do you have any specific comments, professional observations, or information that you would like to sharewith us--such as information on multiple bidding, changing buyer preferences, mortgage credit issues, orother topics?

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Documents

Market Pulse-January 2016 (Public)