Mass Media & Public Opinion

8.2 Measuring Public Opinion

In the election of 1948, Harry S. Truman defeated Thomas Dewey, yet pollsters were

so confident Dewey would win that newspapers had already begun printing the

headline ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’ for the morning paper . . .

How might we account for this?

What are some of the short-comings of public opinion polls?

Focus Your Thoughts . . .

If public policy is to reflect public opinion, one needs to be able to find the answers to these questions:1. What are people’s opinions on “x” issue?2. How many people share this opinion?3. How firmly do they hold that view?

In other words, we have to be able to measure public opinion.

Measuring Public Opinion

Elections Interest Groups The Media Personal Contacts Polls

Methods of Measurement

Votes cast for the various candidates are regularly taken as evidence of the people’s approval or rejection of the stands taken by those candidates and their parties however . . .

This isn’t actually the case – individuals vote for candidates for a variety of reasons (some being better than others)◦ Example - voting for Barack Obama because he is

‘fine’? Problematic, Sydney. ;)

Elections

Interest Groups – Private organizations whose members share certain views and objectives and work to shape public policy.

Interest groups are a chief means by which public opinion is made known, they present their views (exert their pressures) through:◦ Lobbyists◦ Letters◦ Telephone calls◦ Political campaigns◦ Demonstrations

However . . . it’s difficult to discern whether the existence of an interest group necessarily implies that there is a great deal of

support for it.

Interest Groups

The media is frequently described as a “mirror” of public opinion, however . . .

It’s probably more accurately described as a molder of public opinion and is often found

to be very biased and inaccurate.

The Media

What does it mean to be ‘biased’?

Most politicians have frequent and wide-ranging contacts; through these contacts, they try to gauge public opinion

Politicians receive hundreds of calls, e-mails, and letters every day and many make frequent trips “back home” but . . .

Can politicians truly find the “voice of the people?”

Many do not . . . instead, they find the voice of only those who they want to find – those who support them and

agree with their opinions.

Personal Contacts

So how is public opinion best measured??

Polls – Devices that attempt to collect information by asking people questions.◦ Straw Votes – Polls that seek to read the public’s

mind simply by asking the same question of a large number of people Highly unreliable Rests on the false assumption that a relatively large

number of people will be representative of a broad range or a reasonable spectrum of the public opinion

Polls

What’s an ‘assumption’?

Scientific polling did not begin until the 1930’s◦ Extremely complex five-step process

1. Defining the universe2. Constructing a sample3. Preparing valid questions4. Interviewing5. Analyzing and reporting findings

Scientific Polling

Universe – A term which refers to the whole population that the poll aims to measure

Constructing a Sample◦ In most cases, it is not possible to interview a complete universe because

it is too large (i.e., every person of voting age in America)◦ Because of this we must construct a sample, a representative slice of the

total universe. Samples must be random, that is, each member of the universe must have a

mathematically equal chance of being selected; most samples The Law of Probability

1. If you flip a coin 1,000 times, you’ll get ‘heads’ 500 times2. No matter how often you perform this test, the results will be the same3. So . . . If the sample is of sufficient size (approx. 1,500 people) and is properly

selected at random, the results can be generalized and will be accurate to within a small and predictable margin of error (+ or – 3%)

Defining the Universe & Constructing a Sample

What does it mean to ‘generalize’ findings?

Wording can affect the reliability of any poll◦ Questions should be ambiguous and not leading◦ Questions should be free of ‘loaded’ or

emotionally charged words

Valid Questioning

Example

Leading Question – “Should local taxes be reduced?”

Better Question – “Should the city’s police force be increased to fight the rising tide of crime in our community?

Interviews can be conducted in two ways:1. Door-to-door, face-to-face2. Over the phone/internet

An interviewers tone of voice or any emphasis he or she may place on a particular word or question can influence a person’s response

If questions are not carefully worded, responses could come in the form of snap judgments

In addition, if the person being polled thinks that the person polling them is looking or ‘fishing’ for a particular response, that is likely the response they will give whether it’s truly how they feel or not!

Interviews

Major national polls are fairly reliable, but they are far from perfect . . . and their force is tempered by a number of factors, for example, interest groups

One weakness of polls is that they are sometime said to shape the opinions they are trying to measure◦ They often create a ‘bandwagon’ effect

Some voters, wanting to side with the winner, will jump on the bandwagon of the candidate who is ahead in the polls

Polls also have difficult measuring:1. Intensity – strength of feeling with which an opinion is held2. Stability – relative permanence of an opinion3. Relevance – how important a particular opinion is to a person who holds it

Evaluating Polls

1. Why are interest groups uncertain gauges for measuring public opinion?

2. What is the major problem with the straw vote polling technique?

3. How is that a random sample gives a fairly accurate representation of public opinion?

4. For what reasons is public opinion measured?5. List two good reasons for following polls during a

presidential campaign.6. How might the Framers of the Constitution have viewed

public opinion polls?7. What positive and/or negative effects might there be if

polls were taken among student voters before a student government election?

Assignment: Section 2 Assessment (Pg. 221)

The class will be divided into five groups ◦ Group 1: Opinions on Cornell note-taking◦ Group 2: Opinions on longer school days in exchange for three-day weekends◦ Group 3: Opinions on legalizing gay marriage◦ Group 4: Opinions on the universal healthcare initiative◦ Group 5: Opinions on lowering the drinking age

Decide on a sample size and composition (a way to make the assignment random) while remaining representative of our ‘universe’ (our classroom)

Phrase three ambiguous questions to determine the opinions of the opposite group on your topic

Conduct your poll and tabulate the results

Present your findings to the class◦ Does our ‘universe’ like Cornell note-taking? Do we prefer some other method?◦ Does our ‘universe’ support the establishment of a three-day weekend? Are we willing to accept

longer school days in exchange for this?◦ Does our ‘universe’ support or oppose gay marriage? Universal healthcare? A lower drinking age?

Activity: Conducting a Poll