May 2016 - ERA · Note: Intra-European market operated by European airlines only. Further publication of operations is anticipated so these figures are subject to change. Source:

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May 2016

ERA Monthly Market Analysis

ERA Monthly Market Analysis, May 2016

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For the production of these statistics in the following report, ERA has teamed up with partners Seabury and Innovata to provide

a comprehensive analysis of ERA’s members’ performance.

The analysis performed by Seabury, is based on schedule data that has been provided by Innovata and gives a comprehensive

overview of the sector.

This report examines the performance of ERA members carriers (and in some cases the wider European regional airline

network) who report schedule data to Innovata as well as market dynamics and outlook for the Winter 2014 and Summer 2015

schedules.

Seabury is a leading global advisory and professional services firm, which

provides information covering the aviation, air cargo and maritime

industries with a depth of analytics to support rapid decision making.

www.seaburygroup.com | [email protected]

Innovata specialises in travel content management and distribution

solutions. The firm maintains and markets an industry standard flight

schedules database with over 800 participating airlines.

Introduction

http://www.seaburygroup.com/





mailto:[email protected]




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• Seating capacity increased by 8% in May compared to May 2015, mainly driven by an

increase in average seats per departure

• Regional airlines continue to have a lower capacity share relative to LCCs and Large

FSCs in 2016 vs. previous year

• ERA carriers and regional airlines have both seen an increase in capacity on monopolistic

routes for Winter 2016 vs. Winter 2015 (based on currently loaded schedules, subject to

change)

Summary


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Part 1: ERA Performance

ERA Monthly Market Analysis, May 2016 5

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May’s seat capacity for ERA carriers is up by 8% compared to the corresponding month in 2015

Note: Intra-European market operated by ERA members only.

Source: Innovata, May 2016 load, surface transportation excluded.

Total seats

Deployed capacity

Year-on-Year %


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ERA movements in May increased by 2% compared to the same month of the previous year



Total movements

Total movements

Year-on-Year %


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The downward trend of the average stage length in early 2016 has flattened



Average stage length in kilometres (km)

Stage length

Year-on-Year %


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Average sector duration remains relatively flat at 1 hour 14 minutes



Average duration in hours

Sector duration

Year-on-Year %


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Average seats per departure in May increased significantly vs. corresponding month last year

Note: Intra-European market operated by ERA members only; cargo flights excluded.


Average number of seats per flight

Aircraft seating capacity

Year-on-Year %


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The number of unique routes operated by ERA carriers in May continues to be above 2015 levels

Note: Intra-European market operated by ERA members only; routes counted bi-directionally.


Route count

Route count

Year-on-Year %


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Part 2: Market Dynamics


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Regional carriers’ higher frequency profile differentiates them from competitor models

Note: Intra-European market operated by European airlines only.


Regionals capacity share in 2016

Regional carrier focus continues to be on shorter, thinner routes


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Seats on international regional routes continue to be lower than in the previous year



Total seats

Seasonality profile of Regionals appears stable

Year-on-Year % change


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Regional carriers’ seat share in May remains below 2015 values at around 8% of total capacity



Capacity share in %

Regionals relative share of seats is being diluted


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May average gauge is in line with the current regional’s trend

Note: Intra-European market operated by European airlines only; cargo flights excluded.


Average number of seats per aircraft

Smaller aircraft gauge deployed by regionals and ERA carriers


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Forecasts of real GDP growth continue to predict strongest growth in Eastern Europe in the period 2015-

2023

Note: CAGR based on 2015-23 period except for Malta, Albania, Belarus (2015-17); Iceland, Moldova, Bosnia and Hercegovina, Luxembourg and Macedonia (2015-20)

Source: EIU GDP forecast of 2015 - 2023.

GDP CAGR (2015 – 2023)

Growth outlook in ERA’s member countries


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Part 3: Summer 2016 Outlook


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Please note that Summer 2016 schedules have only been partially loaded

by most airlines. The following slides therefore should be considered with

caution due to the preliminary nature of the data on which they are based.

Note


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Regional carriers show the highest domestic capacity increase, up 7% vs. S15, mainly driven by

expansion on current routes

Note: Intra-European market operated by European airlines only. Further publication of operations is anticipated so these figures are subject to change.


Domestic capacity % changes (Summer 2015 vs. Summer 2016)

Intra-European domestic market

Seats Summer 2016

INDICATIVE

29m 48m 63m 12m 15m 0m 5m 171m


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Regional carriers show highest overall decrease in capacity on international routes with 5% vs. S15



International capacity % changes (Summer 2015 vs. Summer 2016)

Intra-European international market

Seats Summer 2016

INDICATIVE

20m 187m 114m 46m 38m 17m 7m 431m


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Total movements per sector length

LCCs are growing the number of flights at all distance ranges

LCCs are strengthening operations INDICATIVE

% share (flights) % growth (flights)

80% of Regional

movements in S16


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While ERA carriers continue to exhibit signs of consolidating capacity onto fewer routes relative to

previous summer scheduling season, it has not been to the same extent as other regional carriers



% changes (Summer 2015 vs. Summer 2016)

Competitive overview

Routes with capacity share ≥ 75%

Seats with capacity share ≥ 75%

Regional / ERA members

• While regional carriers have cut close to a sixth

of their routes, ERA carrier’s reduction is more

inline with Larger FSCs

• Average route capacity and gauge change vs

last year continue to be inline or higher than

LCCs

LCC

• LCCs have shown the strongest growth across

seats and flights

• LCCs are the only carrier type to be growing the

number of unique routes operates over Summer

2016

Large FSC

• Overall FSC have shown marginal increase in

seats and flights on existing routes

• Unlike other carrier types, Large FSCs are not

up-gauging aircraft

INDICATIVE


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Top 15 country-to-country flows based on total seat capacity in Summer 2016

Note: Intra-European market operated by European airlines only; countries are ordered as per total capacity in S16. Further publication of operations is anticipated so these figures are

subject to change.


Capacity growth (Summer 2015 vs. Summer 2016)

Country-to-country seat capacity forecast INDICATIVE


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Part 4: Winter 2016


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Please note that Winter 2016 schedules have only been partially loaded

by most airlines. The following slides therefore should be considered with

caution due to the preliminary nature of the data on which they are based.

Note


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While regional carriers have ceased routes contributing to 5% of their capacity, up-gauging of their current

routes has yielded and overall 3% increased capacity in Winter 2016 vs. 2015



Domestic capacity % changes (Winter 2015 versus Winter 2016)

Intra-European domestic market

Seats Winter 2016

19m 29m 41m 8m 9m 0m 3m 109m


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Regional carriers’ international route capacity has increased by 8% vs. last Winter



International capacity % changes (Winter 2015 versus Winter 2016)

Intra-European international market

Seats Winter 2016

13m 99m 66m 27m 21m 8m 3m 237m


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Total movements per sector length

Regional’s share of routes by distance remains relatively constant year-on-year



LCCs are strengthening operations

% share (flights) % growth (flights)

81% of Regional

movements in W16


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ERA members show a large decrease in number of unique routes inline with market trends, however their

average route frequency and capacity vs. W15 is well under their competitors



% changes (W15 vs. W16)

Competitive overview

Routes with capacity share ≥ 75%

Seats with capacity share ≥ 75%

Regional / ERA members

• ERA carriers decline in routes is just slightly

more than half of regional carriers

• ERA members and regional airlines have both

seen an increase in capacity on monopolistic

routes

LCC

• Unlike their competitors, LCCs have increased

number of seats vs W15

• Share on strong monopolistic routes declined

compared to last winter

Large FSC

• Large FSCs were the only airline type to down

gauge compared to W15

• The proportion of seats in monopoly markets

only showed minor changes since last winter

and is below both Regional carriers and LCCs


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Top 15 country-to-country flows based on total seat capacity in Winter 2015

Note: Intra-European market operated by European airlines only; countries are ordered as per total capacity in W16. Further publication of operations is anticipated so these figures are

subject to change.


Capacity growth (Winter 2015 versus Winter 2016)

Country-to-country seat capacity forecast


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Regional carrier

Glossary

Carrier with an average stage length less than 500 km or fleet without narrow-body

and wide-body aircraft (turboprops and / or regional jets only)

Large full service carrier

(Large FSC)

Carrier whose fleet has more than 50 wide-body aircraft or more than 100 aircraft,

including at least 1 wide-body

Small full service carrier

(Small FSC)

Carrier whose fleet contains at least one wide-body aircraft but less than 100 total

aircraft

Low cost carrier (LCC) Any other carrier operating scheduled services with low-emphasis on its product

Domestic market Origin and destination are located inside the same country

CAGR Compounded Annual Growth Rate

International market Origin and destination are situated in different countries

All current ERA members who report data to Innovata (full list available on request) ERA member

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Documents

May 2016 - ERA · Note: Intra-European market operated by European airlines only. Further publication of operations is anticipated so these figures are subject to change. Source: