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MERCER CHINA 2014 ANNUAL HRCONFERENCEWINNING THE FUTURE THROUGH TODAY’S INNOVATION
September 23, 2014China - Shanghai
Economic OverviewGlobal , AP and China
MERCER 2
World GDP and InflationGDP goes up and Inflation goes down from 2013 to 2015
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (April, 2014)
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Emerging market anddeveloping economies Inflation 9.2 5.4 5.9 7.3 6.0 5.8 5.5 5.2
Emerging market anddeveloping economies GDP 5.9 3.1 7.5 6.3 5.1 4.7 4.9 5.3
World Inflation 6.0 2.5 3.6 4.9 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.4
World GDP 2.7 -0.4 5.2 3.9 3.2 3.0 3.6 3.9
MERCER 3
Shift in Global Business LandscapeDriving corporate growth in Asia Pacific
Source: APAC Exec Brief, August, 2014, IMA Asia
Asia Pacific still leading the pack
To cash in where the growth is today, and for the foreseeable future,
Increasing focus on Asia Pacific
4.3% GDP growth
1.1% GDP growth2.0% GDP growth
Asia Pacific vs. Developed markets
MERCER
Regional GDP, Inflation & Salary Increase
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
422 September 2014
Source: IMA Asia Brief Aug 2014Salary Increase: Mercer Global Compensation Planning Report 2014 July
*Mercer TRS Surveys 2014
AU CN HK ID IN JP KR MY NZ PH SG TH TW VN
GDP 3.0% 7.4% 2.5% 5.0% 4.9% 0.4% 3.6% 6.2% 3.3% 6.2% 3.2% 1.1% 3.8% 5.0%
Inflation 2.6% 2.5% 3.8% 5.7% 7.3% 2.7% 1.5% 3.5% 2.0% 4.6% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 4.9%
Salary Increase 3.5% 7.5%* 4.5% 10.0% 11.0% 2.1% 5.0% 5.6% 3.0% 7.0% 4.5% 5.9% 3.8% 10.7%
MERCER 5
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
North America Europe andCentral Asia
Asia and Pacific Latin Americaand the
Caribbean
Middle East andNorth Africa
Sub-SaharanAfrica
1. The overall index is unweighted average of the four pillar scores2. Scores are weighted by population; population data from United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, WorldPopulation Prospects, rev. 2012.
Source: The Human Capital Report, World Economic Forum, 2013The report is published in collaboration with Mercer
Human Capital Index – by Region
Health and Wellness
Education
Workforce andEmployment
EnablingEnvironment
Human Capital Index
MERCER
Human Capital Index - China Rank #43
6
Country Rank ScoreSwitzerland 1 1.455
Finland 2 1.406
Singapore 3 1.232
Netherlands 4 1.161
Sweden 5 1.111
Japan 15 0.948
United States 16 0.920
Malaysia 22 0.644
China 43 0.186
Thailand 44 0.158
Russian Federation 51 0.010
Indonesia 53 0.001
Brazil 57 -0.054
Mexico 58 -0.057
Vietnam 70 -0.202
India 78 -0.270
Source: The Human Capital Report, World Economic Forum, 2013
MERCER
6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
Asia
Population Demographics - Gender
7
2010
2030
Source: UN Population Statistics 2012
Male Female
MERCER 8
Population Demographics – Median Age
Source: UN World Population Prospects 2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
India ASEAN USA Australia China South Korea Japan
Median Age of the Total Population (Years)
1990 2010 2030
MERCER
China’s Changing DemographicsGroup by 10 from 20 - 59
9
Unit:thousand
The forecast of the future population adopts medium fertility rate assumption.
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, United Nations
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
20-29
30-3940-49
50-59
MERCER
China on Track for Moderate GrowthGDP, CPI, salary increase and turnover rate
10.411.6
13
9.69.1
10.49.3
7.8 7.7 7.4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014(E) 2015(F)
GDP CPI(Inflation Rate) Salary Increase Staff Voluntary Turnover
2014 1st half year
10
Source : National Bureau of Statistics of ChinaIMA Asia (Aug 2014)
2004-2014 Mercer Total Remuneration Survey
6.7
12.213.5
14.6
11.3
15.716.3
13.6 13.613.4
7.2
8.68.2 8.7
6.9
8.5
9.6 9.4
8.27.9
7.5 7.7
1.8
4.8
1.5
5.9
-0.7
3.3
5.4
2.6 2.82.52.6
MERCER
China on Track for Moderate GrowthGDP per capital
11
1. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (April, 2014).2. GDP is expressed in current U.S. dollars per person. Data are derived by first converting GDP in national
currency to U.S. dollars and then dividing it by total population.3. For the ranking, there are 186 countries and regions with the data of GDP Per Capital.
China’s Ranking ofGDP per capital
Year Ranking
2011 91
2012 88
2013 84
2014(F) 82
2015(F) 81
5,4346,078
6,7477,333
7,961
2011 2012 2013 2014(F) 2015(F)
MERCER
China GDP Growth Rate Forecast
12
Source: China Forecast Book, IMA Asia, 2014 Q3
0
3
6
9
12
15
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Manufacturing Construction Services GDP
CHINA: GDP Growth by Component, %
MERCER
China’s Total Debt vs. GDPRaised rapidly since 2008 economic risk increased
13Source: Financial Times reported on July 22, 2014, citing estimates from Standard Chartered.
MERCER
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Gro
wth
Perc
enta
ge(Y
ear-
on-y
ear)
China FDI Growth
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
14
China Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
Source : Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of ChinaSource: World Investment Report 2014
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
2011 2012 2013 2014
100124
2013 FDI Flow
FDI Outflow FDI InflowUSD, Billion
2014
Outflow > Inflow
MERCER
50.2
54.1
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55 PMI ManufacturingPMI Service
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
China PMI : Manufacturing and Services
15
Source: HSBC September, 2014
2013 2014
Service
Highest
since Mar 2013
Down Again
after 3-month up
Manufacturing
MERCER
Global Innovation Index rankings
16
Innovation – A Path to TransformationChina has improved its innovation from 2013 to 2014
Country/Economy Score(0-100) 2014 Rank 2013 Rank
Switzerland 64.78 1 1
United Kingdom 62.37 2 3
Sweden 62.29 3 2
United States of America 60.09 6 5
Hong Kong (China) 56.82 10 7
Japan 52.41 21 22
China 46.57 29 35
Russian Federation 39.14 49 62
Brazil 36.29 61 64
India 33.70 76 66
Source: The Global Innovation Index 2014Cornell University, INSEAD, and the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)
MERCER
Summary
17
• China still has strong-to-moderate GDP growth rate in next 3 years.
• Economic risk is raising due to stimulation.
• China may become a FDI net outflow country in 2014.
• China is on the way improving its Human capital index andinnovation ranking in the world, while the aging population will be aissue,China has to seek way to offset its negative impact.