Methods for Measuring Emigration

Slide 2

Emigration

• Positive and negative effects• Data sources and measurement

2004 Tunisian Census example

Slide 3

Possible Positive Effects Reduction of unemployment and stress on

public services and infrastructure in country of origin

Increase of income and standard of living of out-migrants and non-migrant household members (via remittances)

Increase of trade and transnational relations through diaspora networks

Return migrants bring back skills and resources acquired abroad

Slide 4

Possible Negative Effects

Leaves behind an older population (outmigration of the young, highly educated, and economically active)

Outmigration of specific industries and occupations (e.g. health care), and loss of human capital (and wealth)

Depopulation, with an impact on future development, employment opportunities, public infrastructure, taxes, health care services,etc.

Slide 5

Possible Negative Effects, cont.

Imbalanced regional development (rapid urbanization, depopulation in rural areas, etc.)

Dependency on remittances, aka “Dutch Disease”

Impact of remittances on the value of local currency, and its effect on trade

April 20, 2023

Slide 6

Measurement Emigration is extremely difficult to measure In lieu of complete registration data, there

are four methods of estimation• residual methods in countries of origin • survey questions in countries of origin about

persons living abroad• consular (or similar) data in countries of

destination • migration data from destination countries

Slide 7

Residual Methodology, aka Intercensal Cohort-Component Method

“Simplest” way to measure emigration Population is counted at two points in time

(using the same data source, usually a Census), and any difference in population size not attributable to births or deaths is due to net migration.

Accurate birth and death rates needed Each Census (data source) needs to have

extremely similar coverage.

Slide 8

Residual Methodology, cont.

For a high emigration country, improved coverage from one Census to the next might underestimate true levels of emigration, as the population count might be larger due to improved coverage, not a lower level of net emigration.

This method gives no information about characteristics of emigrants (e.g. education) or the size of the flows (in and out).

Slide 9

Surveys Ask questions in origin country (e.g. Census or

household survey) about household members, former household members, or relatives living abroad.

Can collect information about countries of destination and migrant characteristics (age, sex, occupation, education, etc.). • Indirect estimation method: Mothers asked about all

children living abroad (or about place of residence of brothers and sisters), and then estimation techniques used to calculate emigration.

Slide 10

Surveys, Cons

Miss complete households who have moved out of the country, thus will not be in sample

How to weight responses (sample surveys) Potential problems of duplicate responses

(particularly if asking about relatives -less of a problem in a sample survey-)

Slide 11

Consular Data Some consulates collect information on

citizens living abroad (e.g. South Africa, Tunisia, USA).

Registration is usually not compulsory, and are not used for statistical purposes, but rather in case of emergency evacuations.

Severely undercounts the actual number of citizens living abroad, and are admittedly poor sources of data for measuring emigration.

Slide 12

Data Exchange Using data from destination countries to estimate

native emigration/diaspora Dependent on data quality issues in countries of

destination, and will vary greatly from country to country

Coverage issues still exist Dual citizens are usually only counted as nationals of

their country of destination (using country of birth avoids this problem, but scarcer).

Data accessibility (public data might not have level of disaggregation needed, or characteristics like education)

Data sharing mechanisms needed

Slide 13

Alternative Emigration Data Sources

Private employment agencies often maintain databases on the number of jobs applied for by specific sectors and salaries (underestimates)

Bi-lateral country projects matching worker skills with employer needs might have databases

Social Security agency responsible for administering social security pensions for workers. If...• regularly maintained• migrant workers worked under formal

employment schemes

Tunisian Census example

Slide 15

Using the Census as a Tool to Measure Emigration

Not a complete count But can still provide useful information

April 20, 2023

Slide 16

Possible Questions to be Addressed

How many nationals/previous residents are living abroad?

What are their main countries of destination How long have emigrants been absent from their

country of origin? What are their main reasons for moving abroad?

What is their social-demographic profile? Do they intend to return to their country of origin? Do they have economic ties with their original

household?

Slide 17

Tunisia used a special module for household members who left the country

during a period before the census

Tunisia

Date of census April 2004

Resident Population 9.911.000

Emigrants 76.000

Ratio emigrants/resident population

0,8%

Slide 18

Tunisia: Census Module for Emigrants

Target group:

Persons who at the time of the census: Had lived abroad for 6 months or longer Had been members of the nuclear family 5 years

prior to the census

Respondents:

Nuclear family members (spouse and unmarried children)

Slide 19

Tunisia: Census Module for Emigrants

Questions asked:

Socio-demographic characteristics: sex, date and country of birth, country of citizenship

Relationship to reference person Date of emigration Reason for move Country of destination

Q. VII.a Emigration: Is there a parent actually residing abroad who is member of a family nucleus and was residing within the household

in April 1999 ? YES - NO

N°N° NameName Relationship Relationship with the with the

head of hhhead of hh

SexSex

M-1M-1F -2F -2

Year of Year of birthbirth

Year of Year of emigrationemigration

Reason of Reason of emigrationemigration

Country of Country of emigrationemigration

(1)(1) (2)(2) (3)(3) (4)(4) (5)(5) (6)(6) (7)(7) (8)(8)

11

22

Slide 21

Tunisian emigrants by age group and sex,April 1999 – April 2004

April 20, 2023

Age groupAge group Absolute numbersAbsolute numbers As part of totalAs part of total

MM FF M+FM+F MM FF M+FM+F

0-40-4 107107 5656 163163 0,2 %0,2 % 0,5 %0,5 % 0,2 %0,2 %

5-145-14 356356 168168 524524 0,5 %0,5 % 1,4 %1,4 % 0,7 %0,7 %

15-2915-29 3483334833 71087108 4194141941 54,4 %54,4 % 60,7 %60,7 % 55,4 %55,4 %

30-4430-44 2377523775 36163616 2739127391 37,1 %37,1 % 30,9 %30,9 % 36,2 %36,2 %

45-6445-64 47244724 693693 54175417 7,4 %7,4 % 5,9 %5,9 % 7,1 %7,1 %

65+65+ 266266 7171 337337 0,4 %0,4 % 0,6 %0,6 % 0,4 %0,4 %

TOTALTOTAL 6406164061 1171211712 7577375773 100,0 %100,0 % 100,0 %100,0 % 100,0 %100,0 %

Source: Institut National de la Statistique, Tunisia, 2006

Slide 22

Tunisian immigrants and emigrants bymain reason of migration,

April 1999 – April 2004

CountryCountryTunisian Tunisian

immigrantsimmigrants %%

Tunisian Tunisian emigrantsemigrants %%

WorkWork 2197 2197 12,4 %12,4 % 5388353883 71,1 %71,1 %

StudyStudy 750750 4,2 %4,2 % 1362113621 18,0 %18,0 %

MarriageMarriage 861861 4,8 %4,8 % 55035503 7,3 %7,3 %

Family Family reunificationreunification

82818281 46,6 %46,6 % 15481548 2,0 %2,0 %

ReturnReturn 43664366 24,6 %24,6 % -- --

Other reasonsOther reasons 13111311 7,4 %7,4 % 12181218 1,6 %1,6 %

TOTALTOTAL 1776617766 100,0 %100,0 % 7577375773 100,0 %100,0 %

Source: Institut National de la Statistique, Tunisia, 2006

Slide 23

Destination Countries from Tunisia

France 42.2%

Italy 22.4%

Libya 7.1%

Germany 6.9%

Other 21.4%

April 20, 2023

Slide 24

How Tunisian data compared data to that of destination countries

Census data from Tunisia (1)

Data from destination country (2) (1)/(2)

Italy * 17,000 23,300 73.0

Germany 4,900 7,800 62.8

Note: * data from Italy did not cover minors

Slide 25

Data Verification

Age structure of emigrants from Tunisia

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0-4

5-9

10

-14

15

-19

20

-24

25

-29

30

-34

35

-39

40

-44

45

-49

50

-54

55

-59

60

-64

65

-69

70

+

Tunisian data, males Tunisian data, females

German data, males German data, females

Slide 26

Additional Data Comparison

Males' share of emigrants from Tunisia

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0-1

4

15

-19

20

-24

25

-29

30

-34

35

-39

40

-44

45

-49

50

-54

55

-59

60

+

Tunisian data, males German data, males

Slide 27

Lessons Learned

Data collection worked well for emigrants who: Had left the country in the years just before the census

(up to 5 yrs.) Are more likely to keep close ties with their country Are members of the family nucleus that is left behind

(e.g. Tunisian males)