Mitigating the negative impacts of the maize boom on landscapes and livelihoods in Lao PDRJean-Christophe Castella, Christine Ornetsmüller, Guillaume Lestrelin, Peter H. Verburg, Pascal Lienhard

Outline• Maize boom trajectories in

Southeast Asia• A framework for understanding

boom crop trajectories• Gaming-simulations to reveal

underlying mechanisms• The maize boom from the

bottom-up• Lessons for timely and relevant

intervention

Methods Results DiscussionIntro Concept Methods Results DiscussionIntro Concept

Maize boom trajectoriesIntroduction Methods Results DiscussionConcept

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Maize boom trajectoriesIntroduction Methods Results DiscussionConcept

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Hybrid maize

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Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia

Myanmar Thailand Viet Nam PhilippinesSource: FAO Stat

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Maize boom trajectoriesIntroduction Methods Results DiscussionConcept

Hybrid maize

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% o

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Change in maize cultivation

Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia

Myanmar Thailand Viet Nam PhilippinesSource: FAO Stat

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Maize boom trajectoriesIntroduction Methods Results DiscussionConcept

Source: FAO Stat

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Aver

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Maize production at village level

Homephan Leng Mayphonexay

Namgnang Nammen Phoun-neua

A conceptual frameworkfor intervention on boom crop trajectories

Introduction Methods Results DiscussionConcept

adoption expansion intensification diversification abandonment

Boom Bust

Living with the maize boomIntroduction Methods Results DiscussionConcept

Timeline

2003

2009

2015• 2003-2009

PCADR -Conservation agriculture project

• 2009PAMPA – Impact assessmentproject

• 2015EFICAS - lessons from previous projects

Disentangling the mechanisms of the boomfrom the inside

Introduction Methods Results DiscussionConcept

adoption expansion intensification diversification abandonment

2015

Introduction Methods Results DiscussionConcept

Disentangling the mechanisms of the boomexploring local contexts

round1

round2

round3

Multi-scale gaming approach to the boom• decision making embedded in local contexts • generalizing to emergent level of the boom

Focus group

Interviews

Game

Introduction Methods Results DiscussionConcept

Maize price and allocation

Maize investments and alt. LU

Maize risk behaviour Maize and

land degradation

Take it!Adopting alternatives to maize

Introduction Methods Results DiscussionConcept

Ornetsmüller C, Castella JC , Verburg PH. (submitted) A multi-scale gaming approach to elucidate farmer’s land use decision making in the maize boom of Laos. Ecology and Society

Maize boom game ‘mahasaly’validation workshop with experts

The maize boom from the bottom-up• Impacts on livelihoods

– General increase of land holding size– Commodification of the land– Income increase… and also indebtedness– Economic differentiation, inequalities (GINI index )

Introduction Methods Results DiscussionConcept

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Kham district Nonghet district

MaizeUpland riceMaize

The maize boom from the bottom-up• Impacts on environment

– Deforestation – biodiversity loss– Land degradation (tillage erosion)– Pollution by herbicides– Landscape simplification

Introduction Methods Results DiscussionConcept

Land use change in Kham basin in the 2000s

2015

Forest land

Upland crops

Paddy rice

Complex landscape mosaics Maize monocropping

Opening the black box of the maize boom

Introduction Methods Results DiscussionConcept

• Why are booms repeating again and again?Why don’t ‘they/we learn’? Who learns?

• Boom as a gateway to capital-intensive agricultureTransforming frontier landscapes and livelihoods

a gateway to capital-intensive agriculture

cash crops vs food crop

priceinputs

trust building with trader

market stability

contracts are sacred

no input vs debts

need to reimburse

interest rate

labor productivity

economic calculation

local network

motorcycle TV

changing aspirations

children education

commercial network

Shifting cultivationHigh input

monocropping

Financial literacy

Market literacy

Knowledge networks

Mahanty S., Milne S. (2016) Anatomy of a boom: Cassava as a ‘gateway’ crop in Cambodia's north eastern borderland. Asia Pacific Viewpoint, 57: 180–193.

Ornetsmüller C, Castella JC , Verburg PH. (submitted) A multi-scale gaming approach to elucidate farmer’s land use decision making in the maize boom of Laos. Ecology and Society

Thinking out of the ‘black’ box of the boom

Introduction Methods Results DiscussionConcept

• Windows of opportunity – No technical intervention possible during the

expansion-intensification phase of the boom,– Two opportunity windows for intervention

-> should take into account knowledge –strategies of stakeholders at that time

Initial stage of the transition from subsistence to commercial farming

Aftermath of the boom: advanced land degradation

Thinking out of the ‘black’ box of the boom• Windows of opportunity• Short term benefits vs long term investments

– Maize money is often reinvested into long term, more sustainable agricultural investments, e.g. paddy terracing, tree plantations; and in children’s education

– Strategies to minimize income loss during transition from maize to alternatives – relay income sources, e.g. tractor service, off-farm jobs,

Introduction Methods Results DiscussionConcept

-> combine short and long term perspectives in policy designs (e.g. forest, poverty alleviation) and PES mechanisms

Take home messages

• Land science looks ex-post at land use trajectories; participatory simulations helped capturing rapid changes and a-priori, early warning signs of booms,

• Mitigating impacts of boom crops requires considering both the whole trajectory of change and contextualized decision-making,

• Windows of opportunity were identified for timely intervention -> engaging stakeholders into transformative landscape approaches

Thank you for your attention…For more information: www.eficas-laos.net