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Modeling Human Response to Threats and Disasters
John H. Sorensen
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
May 29-30, 2003
Major Modeling Thrusts in Disaster Research
• Warning Response
• Warning Diffusion
• Evacuation Behavior
• Protective Action Effectiveness
• Psycho-Social Impacts
• Intelligent Consequence Management
Warning Response Research
• Started in the 1950’s• Driven by the shadow of nuclear war• If we sound the sirens, what will people do?• Series of studies - tornado, hurricane, flood,
explosion, air raid sirens, alien invasions• Major findings
– People seek more information – People converge on event
Warning Response Process
Factors Increasing Response
• Receiver Characteristics– Visual and other cues
– Family and network
– Female
– Younger
– Majority
– High SES
– Non-fatalistic
• Sender Characteristic– Message source
– Message channel
– Message style• Clear
• Specific
• Accuracy
• Certain
• Consistency
– Message Content
Alternative Responses to Natural and Technological
Hazards• Do nothing/ denial• Confirm warning/ seek information• Evacuate/ temporary relocation• Seek protective shelter/ stay home/ isolation• Respiratory protection• Decontaminate• Seek medical attention• Help others
Modeling Diffusion of Warning
3025201510500.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
SIRENS
TONE ALERT
TELEPHONE
MEDIA
SIRENS/TONE ALERTS
SIRENS/TELEPHONES
Time (min)
Po
rtio
n r
ec
eiv
ing
wa
rnin
gs
Diffusion Of Warnings
2 4 01 8 01 2 06 0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
SIRENSROUTEINFORMALMEDIA
Normalized Warning Diffusion by Source
Time
Cu
mu
lati
ve
Pe
rce
nt
1 am 2 am 3 am 4 am
2 4 02 3 02 2 02 1 02 0 01 9 01 8 01 7 01 6 01 5 01 4 0
0
20
40
60
80
100
Sirens
Simulated Siren
Simulated Vs Observed at Nanticoke
Time
2:20 3:00 3:30 4:00
CU
M.
%
1201008060402000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Area OneArea Two
Area Three
Mobilization Time By Order of Evacuation
Time (min)
Cu
mu
latv
e P
erc
en
t
PROTECTIVE ACTION
EFFECTIVENESS
ACCIDENT SCENARIO
DECISION TO
WARN
WARNING SYSTEM
DISPERSION CODE
DOWN- WIND
CONCENTRATION
MET CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DOSE
PROTECTIVE ACTION EFFECTIVENESS MODEL
PROTECTIVE ACTION
HUMAN RESPONSE
DOSE REDUCTION
Intelligent Consequence Management
• New sensor networks or links to existing sensor networks designed to detect and monitor the threats of concern
• High-speed communications and data exchange• Real-time simulation models running on high-
speed machines• Faster than real-time predictive capabilities• Advanced decision support tools that can process
data and simulation outputs into a format useful to decision-makers
ORNL LDRD
• Dynamic evacuation modeling
• Utilize deployable road sensor tape or existing monitors
• First evacuation model with dynamic traffic assignment
• Can update simulations using real time data
• Linked to GIS
Alerting Sensor Sound Preparedness Alert
Intelligent Consequence Management Architecture for Rad/Chemical Incident
Notify Emergency Response Team
Activate Monitors Choose Protection Plan
Protection Action ES
Protective Action Library
Data Archive
Dispersion Scenario Library
Evacuate Go To Safe Room
Generate Evacuation Plan Generate Evacuation To Safe Room Plan
Distribute Plans (Electronically)
Classify Event
Activate Warning With Evacuation Instructions
RT Traffic Counters
Data Archive
Generate Sampling Plans
Generate Search & Rescue Plan
Distribute to Emergency Response Team
Generate Emergency Response Plan
Send in Response Team
Initiate Search & Response
Initiate Sampling
Initiate Decontamination
Activate Field Monitoring
Send Data
Outdoor Dispersion Model
Run Evacuation and Shelter Models
System components to be tested are in red
Accident Library
Damage Assessment
Run Economic Model
Major Questions
• How will warnings be issued to publics once a bio event is identified?
• To what degree will human behavior in a bio event be similar to other hazards?
• Will bio events elicit a different types of human response than observed for other hazards?
• What are the relevant parameters to model in a bio event?
