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Models of crop growth.
Crop growth simulation model WOFOST
Reimund P. Rötter
COST action 734, CLIVAGRI: WG4
workshop on crop model comparison,
TU Berlin, 19-20 November 2008
2
CONTENTS
• 1) Crop growth simulation – capabilities & limitations of the C.T. De Wit Wageningen School of models
• 2) Structure, input and output of WOFOST
• 3) Comparison WOFOST to other modelling concepts and families
• 4) In brief : How to evaluate crop growth simulation models?
3
Models Models
& expert& expert
systemssystems
• SYSTEM: limited part of reality that contains interrelated elements
• MODEL: a simplified representation of a system
• SIMULATION: the art of building mathematical models and study their properties in reference to those of the systems (de Wit, 1982)
1. Crop growth simulation - a tool of (Agro-)systems analysis
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1. Crop growth simulation
Why is dynamic crop growth simulation useful ?
• Generally : (i) to disentangle and explain effects of yield-determining /–limiting and reducing factors; (ii) to integrate fragmented agronomic with biophysical data & extrapolate in time & space
• In climate change impact and adaptation research: their capability allows analysis of crop response to T, P (SM), CO2 and changed management conditions
• => Pre-requisite : Proper evaluation (calibration, sensitivityanalysis, validation..)
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1. Crop growth simulation - Evolution of CT de Wit Wageningen models
• 1960/70s: ELCROS/BACROS comprehensive models: very close linkage: experimentation and simulation model development
•
• 1980s: Development of (summary) models for diverse applications from determining yield potentials (SOW) to improving pest, nutrient and water management (Israel, NL), e.g. SUCROS, WOFOST, ORYZA, PAPRAN, INTERCOM;
• 1990s till present: Further scientific-technical development (e.g. WOFOST, ORYZA) & wide applications at field /farm (e.g. InSARP; Kropff et al) and at higher aggregation levels: regional yield forecasting (CGMS-Europe), in regional land use (scenario) studies (e.g. Ground for Choices EU-15; SOLUS, SysNet/IRMLA) together with interdisciplinary teams in Asia, Africa, Latin America (Aggarwal/Rötter/Bouman et al).
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1. Crop growth simulation - capabilities and limitations. Hierarchical modeling
approach of C.T. de Wit School
7
WOFOST : World Food Studies (Wageningen-
Amsterdam); and centre piece of a European Crop Growth Monitoring System
(CGMS)
2. WOFOST 7.1: Structure, input and output
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2. WOFOST. Structure, input, output
• Annual field crops (10) in Version 7.1 for Europe:
• - Wheat
• - Grain Maize
• - Barley
• - Sugar beet
• - Potatoes
• - Field Beans
• - Soybean
• - Rapeseed
• - Sunflower
• - Rice• (about 12 crops more for tropical regions)
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2. WOFOST. Structure, input, output
A schematic
representation of photosynthesis
module, SUCROS
approach. Potential
production (grey)
and water-limited
production. (Source: Van
Ittersum et al.
2003)
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2. WOFOST. Sturcture, input, output. Crop parameters
Crop parameters (for CO2: 560 ppm)
-SLA: 0.0021 (-5% from 1990: 350 ppm)
-CFET: (- 5% from 1990)
-AMAX: 50 (+25% to 1990)
Crop parameters (to calibrate for crop cultivars/ local conditions)
TSUM1 – tempsum above basetemp for vegetative growth.
TSUM2 – tempsum for reproductive gr
SLATB -- specific leaf area
FRTB etc. –Partitioning R, L, S, SO
AMAX --- Max leaf CO2 assimilation r.
TMP,TMN – assim reduction d.t. temp
EFF – light – use efficiency
CEFT – correction factor ET
DEPNR – crop group water depletion
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Estimation of crop yield from NPK uptake as applied in QUEFTS /WOFOST
Two borderlines indicating maximum dilution (D) and accumulation (A) of
N (left), P(centre) and K (right) – example for rice – after Janssen et al.,
1990)
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3. Comparison WOFOST to other modelling concepts and families
• DSSAT (Decision support system of agrotechnology transfer)
• (ref.: Jones et al., 2003) Check: http://168.29.150.63:81/ to dowload latest model version.
• DSSAT software simulates the growth of crops like peanuts, sunflowers, sugarcane, wheat, soybeans, rice, tomatoes, sorghum, millet, barley, potatoes, corn, black-eyed peas, beans.
• (examples: Ceres-Maize, -Rice, -Wheat; J Ritchie, S Otter-Nacke; U Singh etc.):
• In use for more than 15 years as a result of IBSNAT project (motivation; knowledge integration – extrapolation in space); --new, modular cropping system model (DSSAT-CSM Cropping system model)
=> For other crop models (e.g. APSIMm CROPSYST and STICS), see e.g. and www.icasa.net or ME406 course: crop model lecture notes & refs. UH.
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3. Comparison WOFOST to other modelling concepts and families
• Development stages (driving variables: Temp/cultivar; co-determining factors (e.g. daylength in Wofost; soil temp or soil moisture in CERES?......);
• Assimilation and dry matter increase (processes: leaf photosynthesis, LAI, maintenance and growth respiration (SUCROS approach); descriptive: light interception – dry matter relationship; ---- effect CO2 concentration on photosynthesis (via AMAX and EFF)
• Partitioning of assimilates /dry matter to different plant organs (dev. stage dependent, fixed fractions or ?. Root : shoot (and leaf: stem: storage organs);
• Leaf area development (calc. from leaf dry weight, specific leaf area for closed canopy; exponential growth – unclosed.. ends at LAI 1; dependency on temperature; rel. Leaf death rate --- vs green area )
• Soil water balance (tipping bucket/cascading or Richards approach; no. of layers, ETo e.g. According to Penman)
• Nutrient – limitation (Static QUEFTS approach for NPK in WOFOST; dynamic N appproach; comprehensive approaches in CERES/DSSAT-CSM, HERMES...)
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4. How to evaluate ?
Statistical evaluation of model performance (as recommended by e.g. Willmott 1981):
• - Summary measures: observed and predicted means, STD, sample size, intercept and slope of simple regression between dependentand independent(=oberved) variable; and coefficient of determination
• - Difference measures: mean absolute error MAE, mean square error MSE, systematic and unsystematic parts of MSE and RMSE, and the index of agreement (d)
Apply models judiciously; scientist with background in major related disciplines – models are not fool-proof...............,
Combine, whenever possible, experimentation and modelling
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4. How to evaluate ?
• Calibration, sensitivity analysis, validation
• - calibration: essential step in model development aimed at adjusting or deriving parameter values on the basis of experimental data --procedure (see, successive steps for crop models ); calibration can take site differences and minor ecological processes into account, it is essential to reduce calibration for that purpose (of curve fitting)
• - sensitivity analysis: as a form of behavioral analysis and part of model evaluation, carried out in order to assess the influence of selected key (’critical’) parameters on, usually, most important output variables (sensitivity indicators) – what-if; irrespective of real system behaviour;
• - validation: the examination whether a model derived from the analyses of some systems is capable of describing other systems – or, in the narrow sense, how well the model outputs fit (new) data (de Wit, 1982; Joergensen, 1983); � most difficult step in evaluation
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4. How to evaluate ? An example from Finland
Observed vs simulated turnip rape yields
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
years
kg
ha-1
pot yld
simyld1
OBSyld1
simyld2
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8. Detailed case.
Model sensitivity, OSR, mean Pot Yld
(indicator) (32 years)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Cur
rent
CF: T
SUM
2C
F: 560
ppm
FCL:
T+2
T+2, 5
60 p
pm T+4T+4
, 560
ppm
Change in variable
Kg
ha
-1
TWSO
Oilseed rape, d: 120,
Jokioinen, FI
(1) Current data
(2) TSUM2 modified
(3) Crop par CO2:560 ppm
(4) T+2
(5) T+2, P+10%, 560 ppm
(6) T+4
(7) T+4, 560 ppm
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Climate change impact on agriculture application to modern turnip rape varieties in
Finland
Effect T.O.P. and soil type on mean yield (n=32)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
110 120 130 140 150 160
Pot Yld
WL Yld (fine soil)
WL Yld (coarse soil)
Pot Yld (T+2)
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(Averaged) yield changes for major crops in the Rhine Basin (scenario BAU-best)
• Simulated water-limited yield increase
• yield (t ha-1) (%)
• current future
• ___________________________________________________________________
• winter wheat 7.0 9.5 35.7
• potato 10.6 12.4 17.0
• sugarbeet 12.7 16.0 26.0
• silage maize 17.6 20.0 14.0
• ryegrass 14.7 19.4 32.0
• (Lolium perenne)
• ___________________________________________________________________
•