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1
Monetary Policy in Brazil
Solange Gouvêa Research Department
Brazil – Russia Dialogue: Economic Policy Challenges
International policy workshop
June 2012
2
Disclaimer
The views expressed in this presentation
are mine and not necessarily those
of the Central Bank of Brazil.
3
“Inflation Targeting - First some facts:
During the Great Crisis of 2008-2009, EM showed more
resilience than advanced economies. Now, EM are
exiting the global crisis at a much faster pace than
advanced economies. This reflects sizable policy
support, favorable external conditions and solid
macroeconomic fundamentals that proved helpful
before, during and after the financial turmoil”
Guilhermo Ortiz at the Conference:
“Macro and Growth Policies in the wake of the crisis” sponsored by IMF
March 2012
Emerging Markets and the 2008/9 Financial Crisis
4
Outline
The National Financial System and the Central Bank of
Brazil
Macroeconomic Policy in Brazil: Historical Overview
Macroeconomic Policy in Brazil: Current Set Up
Inflation Targeting in Brazil
IT Framework
IT Performance
Macroeconomic Fundamentals
Social Development
Final Remark
5
National Monetary Council (CMN)
- The Minister of Finance, the Minister of Planning, Budget and
Management and the Governor of the Central Bank of Brazil
- Establishes the inflation target, prudential rules and credit policy
- The Central Bank of Brazil is the financial supervisory authority
Source: BCB
The National Financial System
The National Financial System
NATIONAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM
National Council of Private Insurance -
CNSP
National Monetary Council - CMN
Securities and Exchange
Comission - CVM
Other financial intermediaries
Stock Exchange
Bovespa
Commodities and Futures Exchange
Central Bank of Brazil - BCB
Other financial intermediaries
Exchange Brokers
Financial Institutions
Management Council of Complementary Pension - CGPC
6
Central Bank of Brazil Mission
The National Financial System
Monetary
Policy
Financial
Regulation
Financial
Supervision
Wide scope of Central Bank’s authority helps policy coordination
Ensure price stability and a solid and efficient financial system.
7
Macroeconomic Policy: Monthly Inflation
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1980 1987 1990 1994 2003 2012
%
Cruzado Plan
Historical Background
8
Increasing inflation since mid-1970s
Underdeveloped fiscal and monetary institutions
Loose control on public expenditure
Low transparency of institutions and policies
GDP growth: high until 1970s; “lost decade”
(1980s)
External debt crisis in the 1980s
Sequence of failed stabilization programs (e.g.,
“freezing” of financial assets in the banking system (1990); only temporary
success)
Macroeconomic Policy: Brazil up to 1994
Historical Background
9
Previously announced.
Fiscal Adjustment.
Process of desindexation of the economy.
Favorable conditions: International reserves accumulation;
capital inflows; society “tired” of inflation
Success: rapid and lasting inflation convergence to low levels
Generated, for the first time in decades, a low inflation environment
Macroeconomic Policy - The Real Plan – July 1994
Historical Background
10
Unsustainable regime (Fiscal situation, External disequilibrium)
Mexican, Asian and Russian crises (pressure on international
reserves and domestic interest rates; sudden stop crisis )
Huge exchange rate depreciation (collapse of the managed
exchange rate system)
Uncertainty about the economy
Fears of return to high inflation
Macroeconomic Policy – 1999 Crisis
0,75
1,00
1,25
1,50
1,75
2,00
2,25
Ju
l-9
4
Ja
n-9
5
Ju
l-9
5
Ja
n-9
6
Ju
l-9
6
Ja
n-9
7
Ju
l-9
7
Ja
n-9
8
Ju
l-9
8
Ja
n-9
9
Ju
l-9
9
Ja
n-0
0
Ju
l-0
0
R$ /
US
$
Nominal Exchange Rate
Historical Background
11
Three pillars of the macroeconomic policy framework:
Inflation targeting
Fiscal responsibility
Exchange rate flexibility
Enhanced macroeconomic fundamentals, combined
with macro prudential policy and strong bank
supervision resulted in:
Improved capacity to absorb internal and external shocks
Macroeconomic and financial stability
Sustainable growth
Credit and capital market development
Current Macroeconomic Policy
Overview
12
Inflation Target Framework in Brazil
13
Adopted in Brazil in June, 1999
Targets set by the government (National Monetary Council -CMN)
Targets are announced in June of year t for calendar year t+2
Inflation index: headline CPI (IPCA) – more credible
Point target with a tolerance interval – inflation uncertainty
If the target is not achieved (outside the tolerance interval):
Open-letter to the Minister of Finance
Transparent Communication: Press release after MPC meetings,
MPC Minutes and Inflation Report
IT Framework in Brazil: Main Features
Overview
14
Increasing success in other countries:
In 2009, 27 central banks were considered fully fledged inflation targeters,
and many others were in the process of establishing a full inflation-targeting
framework.
To disinflate with better trade-off : the important role of IT as an
anchor for inflation expectations.
IT brings more transparency and accountability.
By law the monetary authority is committed to price stability.
IT Framework in Brazil: Why IT?
Overview
15
Projection Models of the BCB
Inflation targeting relies on good macroeconomic forecasts,
more than any other monetary policy regime;
Good forecasting in this framework is expected to reduce the
trade-off between inflation and output volatility;
Given the lag between monetary policy action and its effects
on prices, inaccurate forecasts may delay the action and
induce undesirable cycles.
“Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.”
(Statistician George E. P. Box)
IT Framework in Brazil: IT in practice Overview
16
IT Framework in Brazil: The MPC decision-making process
Short-term projections
for key economic
variables
Model-based
Inflation
Projections
MPC (Copom)
Meeting and Decision
Communication
Communiqué, Minutes
and Inflation Report
Analysis of forecasting’s
performance (Monitor);
Fan chart
Current economic situation
and near-term outlook
Inflation nowcasting;
expectations; balance of
risks; judgment
Open Market
Liquidity at a level
consistent with Selic rate
Outlook of
the economy
17
Play a key role in inflation forecasting;
Should remain anchored to the target (in the medium to long run);
Cannot be directly observed, alternatives:
Extracted from financial market data (market liquidity, risk premium...)
Survey-based expectations:
used for inflation projections; (alternative to the model consistent
setup)
used in model estimation.(as an alternative to the rational
expectations assumption)
IT Framework in Brazil: Inflation expectations
18
IT Framework in Brazil: Survey-based expectations
Since 1999 (transition to the inflation targeting system);
Created to monitor market expectations and improve the inputs
for the monetary policy decision-making process;
Daily survey of roughly 110 institutions;
Market expectations for inflation rates, GDP growth, industrial
production growth, FX rate, interest rate, fiscal variables, and
external sector;
Top 5 ranking to foster private sector forecasting expertise.
19
Inflation target for 2011, 2012, 2013: 4.50% ± 2.00%
Inflation in 2011 (IPCA): 6.50%
Inflation projections (March Inflation Report):
(*) Median of inflation expectations as of June 15, 2012
IT Framework in Brazil: Current setup
2012 2013
Baseline scenario 4.4% 5.2%
Market expectations (*) 5.0% 5.5%
20
CPI inflation rate (IPCA)
IT Framework in Brazil : Taming Inflation Expectations
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Jul-
99
Ap
r-0
0
Jan
-01
Oct
-01
Jul-
02
Ap
r-0
3
Jan
-04
Oct
-04
Jul-
05
Ap
r-0
6
Jan
-07
Oct
-07
Jul-
08
Ap
r-0
9
Jan
-10
Oct
-10
Jul-
11
Ap
r-1
2
CPI inflation (%12m)
market expectations
central target
21
Sources: BCB / IBGE
Inflation – Convergence to Targets Economic Indicators
%,
yoy
target (4.5%)
market expectation: April 30th
market
expectation
22
Source: Focus (May 7 2012)
IT Framework in Brazil: Survey-based expectations
Dispersion of market expectations
IPCA 2012 IPCA 2013
23
IT Performance (after 12 years):
Targets fulfilled in 10 years (including last 8 years)
Confidence crisis: 2002-2003
• Uncertainty about the future policy regime
• Huge exchange rate depreciation
• Stress test for inflation targeting
Average inflation (2007-2011): 5.4%
Evidence of targets anchoring expectations
Construction of credibility: Agents’ perception of BCB committed
to the IT regime
IT Performance in Brazil
24
Brazil
Macroeconomic Fundamentals
25
Macroeconomic Fundamentals
International Reserves
Downward Trend of Public Debt
Stable and High Quality External Financing
Reserve Requirements
Downward Trend of Sovereign Risk
Liquidity Buffers
Sound Financial System and Credit Market
26
Source: BCB
Macroeconomic Fundamentals: Liquidity Buffers
86
180 205
194
239
289
352 372
0
100
200
300
400dez 0
6
dez 0
7
ago
08
dez 0
8
dez 0
9
dez 1
0
de
z 1
1
jun 1
2
International Reserves (US$ bi.)
164
197
253
172 194
395
449
396
0
100
200
300
400
500
dez 0
6
dez 0
7
set 08
dez 0
8
dez 0
9
dez 1
0
dez 1
1
jun 1
2
Reserve Requirements (R$ bi.)
27
Source: BCB
Macroeconomic Fundamentals: Falling Public Debt
3,2 3,3
3,7 3,8
3,2 3,3
3,4
2,0
2,7
3,1 3,1
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
52,0
60,4
54,8
50,6
48,4 47,3
45,5
38,5
42,1
39,1
36,4 35,7
35
38
41
44
47
50
53
56
59
62
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
Primary Surplus (% GDP) Public Debt (% GDP)
-24.7 p.p.
of GDP
28
Macroeconomic Fundamentals:Sound Financial System
Main features:
Actual and regulatory capital requirement above
international standards
High level of liquidity ratios
29
Source: BCB
Macroeconomic Fundamentals: Sound Financial System %
Actual capital ratio of Brazilian Banks
* apr 12
Well above minimum regulatory capital ratio requirement = 8%
Well above minimum Basel capital ratio requirement = 11%
30
Souce: IMF (2011)
Macroeconomic Fundamentals: Sound Financial System
109 109
88 82
76 75
66 58 55 52 50 49
43 42 39 37 33 30 29
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
%
Liquid Assets / Short Run Liabilities S
ou
th K
ore
a
Bra
zil
Po
rtu
gal
Ru
ss
ia
Belg
ium
Tu
rke
y
Un
ite
d S
tate
s
Can
ad
a
Me
xic
o
Ja
pan
Gre
ec
e
Sw
ed
en
Ch
ina
Un
ite
d
Kin
gd
om
Au
str
ali
a
Sw
itzerl
an
d
So
uth
Afr
ica
Ind
ia
No
rwa
y
31
Macroeconomic Fundamentals: Sound Credit Market
Moderate growth of credit volume
Growth rate of 18% last 12 months
New credit operations in 2012 are 10 % higher than in the
same period of 2011
Recent data show:
Falling interest rates and spreads
32 Fonte: BCB
Macroeconomic Fundamentals: Sound Financial System
0
10
20
30
40
50
60200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
20
07
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
% o
f G
DP
Morgages
*
Sustainable Credit Growth (50% of GDP)
Earmarked Credit
Others
33
Fonte: BCB
Macroeconomic Fundamentals: Sound Financial System
Real Interest rate – Swap 360 days x Inflation expectations 12 months ahead
34
Source: CVM
Macroeconomic Fundamentals: Capital Market
General Overview
R$ b
illio
n
*June 2011 (12 months)
Primary Issues
35
Source: BCB *apr 12 (12 months)
Macroeconomic Fundamentals: High Quality of External Financing
3 3 1 2 1
0 1 3
1 1 1 2 1 2
4
11
19
29 29
33
22
17
10
18 15
19
35
45
26
49
67
63
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
FDI em 2011 na AL
•Brazil: US$ 67 bi.
•Mexico: US$ 19 bi.
•Chile: US$ 14 bi.
•Colombia: US$ 13 bi.
•Argentina: US$ 7 bi.
Foreign Direct Investment (US$ bi.) FDI - CC deficit (% PIB)
36
Source: BCB
Macroeconomic Fundamentals: Stable External financing
(US$ bi.)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
jul 11
au
g 1
1
se
p 1
1
oct 11
no
v 1
1
de
c 1
1
jan
12
fev 1
2
ma
r 1
2
ab
r 1
2
Ma
y 1
2
jun
12
Others Exports
Stable External Financing
37
Source: Bloomberg
Macroeconomic Fundamentals: Sovereign Risk (CDS)
July 2011
113 b.p.
(average)
basis
poin
ts
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
jan
02
jan
03
jan
04
jan
05
jan
06
jan
07
jan
08
jan
09
jan
10
jan
11
S&P: BBB
Fitch: BBB
Moody´s: Baa2 ( )
38
Brazil
Social Development
39
Both macroeconomic and inclusion
policies have led to marked improvement
in living conditions.
A significant share of low income groups
joined the middle class.
Social Development
40 Source: IBGE
GDP per Capita
Economic Indicators
US
$
US$ 12,696
41 Source: IBGE
Unemployment Rate
Economic Indicators
%
Jan 12
5.5%
42 Source: FGV
Social Mobility m
illio
n o
f people
Social Classes
*FGV forecast
43
Final Remark
44
Virtuous Policies Interaction
lower interest
rate and
improved
credibility
lower
risk
premium
stronger
effect
falling public
debt
primary
surplus lower
fiscal risk
falling net public
external debt
floating and
international
reserves
lower
external risk
macroeconomic
stability
inflation
targeting
lower
inflation risk
} }
Closing Remark
45
Thank you!
Спасибо!
46
Source: MDIC
Exports in 2010 Economic Indicators
Composition Destination
* excluded Argentina
** excluded China and Middle East
*** excluded Germany