Montréal Québec Toronto Ottawa Calgary Edmonton Philadelphia Denver Tampa Federal Election Journal: Our Industry, Our Democracy. Christian Bourque Research

• Montréal • Québec • Toronto • Ottawa • Calgary • Edmonton • Philadelphia • Denver • Tampa

Federal Election Journal:

Our Industry, Our Democracy.

Christian BourqueResearch Vice-President and Senior Partner

2 • Montréal • Québec • Toronto • Ottawa • Calgary • Edmonton • Philadelphia • Denver • Tampa

In an Nutshell

A look back in time

How our industry saw the campaign

How well we did: Do we deserve an A or a C?

Voter Behaviour: Exit Poll Research and the Ballot Box Bonus

Final thoughts …


Do You Remember Back Then …


The Industry Was Mostly Right in 2006

Conservatives Liberals NDP BQ Green

SES Research 36% 30% 17% 11% 6%

Leger 38 29 17 11 4

Decima 37 27 19 11 5

Ekos 37 27 20 12 5

Strategic Counsel 37 27 19 11 6

Ipsos 39 27 19 12 4

Average 37.3 27.8 18.5 11.3 5.0

Election result 36 30 18 11 5


Lots of Talk, Lots of Surveys, Little Movement


The Writ is Dropped!

Date Conservatives Liberals NDP BQ Green

Angus Reid 9-12 39% 23% 18% 9% 10%

Ekos 9-11 36 26 19 8 9

Harris-Decima 9-11 41 26 14 8 9

Ipsos 9-11 38 29 13 8 11

Leger 9-12 39 30 15 8 8

Nanos 9-11 38 31 14 9 9

Average 38.5 27.5 15.5 8.2 9.3


On Average, the Patient Was Dead

Wikipedia


Let’s Agree on an A-

OK … B+


We All Said Conservative Minority

Date Conservatives Liberals NDP BQ Green

Angus Reid 10-13 37% 27% 20% 9% 7%

Leger 10-11 36 27 20 8 9

Ekos 10-13 35 26 19 10 10

Harris-Decima 10-12 34 25 19 11 9

Ipsos 10-09 34 29 18 9 8

Nanos 9-11 34 27 21 10 8

Strategic Counsel

10-11 33 28 18 10 11

Average 34.7 27.0 19.3 9.6 8.9

Election result 10-14 37.6 26.2 18.2 10 6.8


La Belle Province


Back to the Future On average, in 2006, except for Leger and Crop, the industry was 7

points over the BQ actual score. (Bloc result: 42% - Leger 40%, Crop 44%)

On average, in 2008, except for Leger, the industry was 8 points over the BQ actual score. (Bloc result: 38% - Leger 37%)

Is there such a thing as a massive stampede of Quebec headless chickens leaving the BQ in the last 24 hours of a campaign each and every election?

The short answer: Massive spread in response rates between francophones and non-francophones

Overnight field windows do not capture more discreet voters

The issue of accents

If you don’t weight by language most used in household … you are toast!


The Exit Poll and How it Answers ‘What changed’

Or the Ballot Box Bonus Hypothesis


Methodology

On-line survey, using the Legerweb.com panel, conducted between 6:00 and 9:30 Eastern on October 14th, among respondents who said they had voted at the election.

National sample of 4,524 Canadians (18+) of all regions. Data was weighted by region only.


The Ultimate Moment of Decision

Total Cons. Liberals NDP BQ Green

Before the beginning of the campaign

44% 60% 38% 35% 47% 28%

Between the start… and debates

17 14 17 23 17 17

Right after the debate 11 8 14 10 10 19

Over the last weekend 12 7 16 15 10 17

Today, before heading to the polling station

8 6 6 10 8 12

Today, in the polling booth itself

7 4 7 8 9 6

When, exactly, did you decide to support this political party?


No Issue Election ?

What is the issue that had the most impact on your decision to vote for this party?

-Single mention-

21%13%

12%5%

4%4%

3%3%3%

1%26%

5%No answerOther

Help to workersIn favour of Qc sovereignty

Young offenders' actCuts to culture

Tax cutsNational unity

Help to families \ povertyMoral \ legal

Environment \ climate changeThe economy\financial crisis


Canadians Vote for Losers!

Total Cons. Liberals NDP BQ Green

Conservatives 74% 94% 63% 64% 72% 64%

Liberals 11 1 23 14 13 14

NDP 2 1 0 6 2 6

Green 0 0 0 0 0 2

Don’t know\Not sure 12 4 14 16 12 15

Which party do you think will win the election?


Canadians Vote for Losers!

Total Liberals NDP BQ Green

For party 63% 55% 68% 64% 72%

ABC 35 43 29 34 26

NDP 2 2 2 2 2

Did you essentially vote FOR (insert vote) or vote AGAINST the conservatives?

(Base: 2707)


Final Thoughts …


See you in two years! We can all agree our industry is in good shape overall.

We need fine-tuning, not an overhaul!

If the dials don’t move, why do we do rolling polls published every morning? How does that help our industry? Over-interpretation by the media

We are about the campaign but not the campaign

‘Liberals Free-Falling: New Poll Shows’ (down 2% based on n=400)

How can we refine our art? Should we move to a likely voter model? Since our political participation is as

laughable as the US, should we adopt their strategy?

Should our weighting schemes evolve to account for how Canada has changed?

Are we ready to consider hybrid of fully on-line methodologies?

• Montréal • Québec • Toronto • Ottawa • Calgary • Edmonton • Philadelphia • Denver • Tampa

To get the results you have never had, you need to do what you have never done

04/18/23

Documents

Montréal Québec Toronto Ottawa Calgary Edmonton Philadelphia Denver Tampa Federal Election Journal: Our Industry, Our Democracy. Christian Bourque Research